Minneapolis: 80 by 50? Restricted Siemens AG 2015 All rights reserved.

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2 Summary It is possible for Minneapolis to achieve its 80 by 50 target, if the City, its utilities, and its inhabitants work aggressively to clean the local energy supply, adopt electric transport and public transit, and improve energy efficiency in buildings. Page 2

3 Summary Xcel s new plan for 65% clean energy sources is a significant step in the direction of achieving ambitious sustainability goals for the City. But even with this step, Xcel will have to continue greening its electricity mix through to 2050, and 40 buildings and transportation technologies will have to be implemented and adopted at their highest implementation rates by 2050 to ensure that targets are met. Our results show that, if the electricity mix gets significantly cleaner, the topperforming technologies for reducing carbon emissions include 1) electrifying both passenger and freight road transport and 2) improving energy efficiency in buildings, particularly in commercial and government buildings. Additional benefits could be realized from public transit, if more people could be attracted to use it. Page 3

4 Using the CyPT in Minneapolis Page 4 Cities Center of Competence

5 The Challenge 80% by 2050 Emissions reduction target Page 5

6 Siemens Role in Supporting Urban Sustainability Public transport Private transport Traffic management Freight Transport 70+ technologies Buildings Building envelope Building automation Monitoring and optimization Energy Renewable generation Grid management Page 6

7 CyPT Outcomes GHG Air quality Economy CO 2 PM10 NO x Jobs Page 7

8 Who We re Supporting Page 8

9 The Minneapolis Context Page 9 Cities Center of Competence

10 Why Minneapolis Decided to Use the CyPT Minneapolis has adopted aggressive goals to reduce GHG emissions 15% by 2015, 30% by 2025 and 80% or more by The City s Climate Action Plan (adopted in 2013) identifies a roadmap for meeting the 2025 goal. The City and its two energy utilities recently formed the Minneapolis Clean Energy Partnership to pursue these climate goals together. The City is interested in using the CyPT model to analyze the technical potential for meeting the 2050 emissions reduction goal. CyPT analysis could form the basis for updating the City s Climate Action Plan in future years to include the 2050 goal. Page 10

11 Minneapolis Today Population: 404,000 inhabitants Electricity Consumption per Capita: 4,128 kwh Avg. Household Size: 1,800 ft 2 Public Transit Mode Share: 6% of passenger miles Page 11

12 Sources of Emissions in CyPT Scope, by Sector Annual CO 2 e, PM10 and NOx emissions Today 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 4,452,956 metric tons (4,527,470 in Minneapolis inventory) 37% 441 metric tons 7,806 metric tons 74% 73% 50% 40% 30% 63% Transport Buildings 20% 10% 0% Page 12 26% 27% CO2e PM10 NOx

13 Breakdown of CO 2 e Emissions in CyPT Scope Annual CO 2 e emissions Today, by Sector (metric tons) Total: 4,452,956 Buildings: 2,825,372 (63%) Transport: 1,627,584 (37%) Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Page 13

14 80x50? Page 14 Cities Center of Competence

15 3 Energy Scenarios 1) Control, 2) Xcel Energy Revised Proposal, and 3) Climate Champion Electricity Mix, 2050 Electricity Mix, Today Electricity Mix, 2025 Biomass 0% 3% Biomass 0% Coal Coal 0% 13% Natural Gas Natural Gas 25% 17% Hydro 36% Hydro Nuclear 27% Nuclear 8% 14% Other Other 8% 0% 8% 13% 28% Solar Solar Wind Wind Emissions Factor: 1,012 lbs/mwh Emissions Factor: 593 lbs/mwh Page 15 XCEL ENERGY REVISED PROPOSAL Biomass 0% Coal 8% Natural Gas 30% 13% Hydro 8% Nuclear Other 13% 28% Solar Wind 0% Biomass Coal Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Solar Wind Emissions Factor: 380 lbs/mwh 40% 0% 0% 16% 8% 8% 0% CLIMATE CHAMPION 28% Emissions Factor: 137 lbs/mwh

16 Annual CO2e Emissions (tons CO2e) 3 Energy Scenarios Emissions, without Application of CyPT Technologies 6,000, Baseline Control Xcel Energy Revised Proposal Extension Climate Champion 80 by 50 Target 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Page 16

17 Annual CO2e Emissions (tons CO2e) 80 by 50! Emissions, with Application of 40 CyPT Technologies 2006 Baseline Control Xcel Revised Proposal Extension + Technologies Climate Champion + Technologies 80 by 50 Target 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Page 17

18 Annual CO2e Emissions (tons CO2e) 80 by 50! Emissions, with Application of 40 CyPT Technologies 2006 Baseline Control Xcel Revised Proposal Extension + Technologies Climate Champion + Technologies 80 by 50 Target 6,000,000 5,000,000 In ) CONTROL: million metric tons CO2e (52% reduction from 2006) 4,000,000 3,000,000 2) XCEL ENERGY REVISED PROPOSAL + TECHNOLOGIES: million metric tons CO2e (82% reduction from 2006) 3) CLIMATE CHAMPION + TECHNOLOGIES: million metric tons CO2e (86% reduction from 2006) 2,000, by 50 TARGET: million metric tons CO2e 1,000,000 Page 18

19 Xcel Revised Energy Proposal Extension Page 19 Cities Center of Competence

20 Implementation Rates for 40 CyPT Technologies Sector Lever IR Unit BUILDINGS Residential Efficient lighting technology (LEDs) 8% share of existing residential building stock fitted each year Home Energy Monitoring 3% share of existing residential building stock fitted each year Home Automation 3% share of existing residential building stock fitted each year Building Envelope 3% share of existing residential building stock fitted each year Non-Residential Efficient lighting technology (LEDs) 10% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Demand oriented lighting 8% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Building Efficiency Monitoring (BEM) 5% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Building Performance Optimization (BPO) 5% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Demand controlled ventilation 6% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Heat recovery 6% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Building Envelope 5% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Building Automation, BACS A 3% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Efficient Motors 6% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Room Automation, HVAC+blind 3% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year Building Remote Monitoring (BRM) 8% share of existing non-residential building stock fitted each year TRANSPORT Vehicles Reduction in car demand 10% reduction in car pmi, reallocated to other modes Electric cars 65% share of car fleet replaced Plug-in hybrid electric cars 25% share of car fleet replaced Electric taxis 100% share of taxi fleet replaced Electric car sharing 7 cars pr 1000 inhabitants Car - Eco-Driver Training and consumption awareness 8% share of driving license holders trained Public Transit Automated train operation (ATO) - Metro 1 share of lines equipped Metro - New lines 5 number of new lines Metro - New vehicles 1 share of fleet replaced Metro - Reduced headway 180 peak-time headway [s] Electric buses 1 share of fleet replaced Automated train operation (ATO) - Regional Train 1 share of lines equipped Tram - New line 4 number of new lines e-brt - New line 10 number of new lines Bikeshare 20 bikes pr 1000 ihabitants Protected bike lane 25.8 miles of new protected bike lanes pr 100k inhabitants Public Transport - E-ticketing 1 users as share of travelers Infrastructure LED Street lighting 1 share of street lights replaced Smart Street Lighting 1 share of street lights replaced Car & Motorcycle - City tolling 15% reduction in road traffic Intelligent traffic light management 1 share of coordinated traffic lights Intermodal traffic management 1 users as share of travelers Freight E-Highways 50% share of highway equipped Page 20 Freight Train - Electrification 1 share of electrified railway equipped

21 80 by 50! Carbon Impacts 82% Reduction in Annual CO 2 e Emissions between 2006 and 2050 Reductions by Technology: 2,893.7 Buildings: 1,702.2 (59%) Transport: 1,191.6 (41%) CO 2 e Annual Emissions Reductions, by Technology (thousand metric tons CO2e) Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Page 21

22 80 by 50! Job Impacts >550k Direct, indirect, and induced FTEs created between 2015 and 2050 FTEs 552,689 Transport: 372,069 (67%) Buildings: 180,620 (37%) Direct, indirect, and induced full-time equivalents (FTEs) created between 2015 and 2050 Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Page 22

23 High-Impact Technologies Page 23 Cities Center of Competence

24 The Path to 80 by 50 As the energy mix gets cleaner, Minneapolis could pursue a stepwise approach to reaching 80 by 50, with the City taking the lead to green its own buildings and fleet and install electric charging infrastructure, while encouraging inhabitants to purchase electric vehicles, ride public transport, and pursue energy efficiency projects in their own homes and businesses. Page 24

25 High-Impact Technologies 1) Energy Efficiency and Automation in Buildings 3) Reduction in Car Demand The City of Minneapolis could take the lead in retrofitting and automating its buildings. As inhabitants use their cars less, use of other passenger transport modes (walking, cycling, transit) increase. 2) Combined Heat and Power 4) Electric Cars Using Combined Heat and Power (CHP) could provide shortterm emissions reduction, as Xcel greens its energy supply. Infrastructure for electric charging could be built for use by cars, buses, and freight. Page 25

26 1) Energy Efficiency and Automation in Buildings Non-Residential Building Automation, BACS A 3% of existing building stock retrofitted every year Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 312,000 mt (8.2%) NOx 30,000 kg (4.4%) PM10 13,000 kg (3.3%) BACS A buildings have: Networked room automation with automatic demand control Scheduled maintenance Energy monitoring Sustainable energy optimization Jobs Created 29,000 FTEs (60% semi-skilled) $266,000 Cost per FTE (CapEx and OpEx estimates are for both public and private sectors) Page 26

27 1) Energy Efficiency and Automation in Buildings Non-Residential Building Performance Optimization 5% of existing building stock retrofitted every year Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 161,000 mt (4.2%) NOx 103,000 kg (2.2%) PM10 6,700 kg (1.7%) Jobs Created 4,500 jobs Service to optimize the energy efficiency of a building by adapting building control strategies, operation guidelines, and/or adjusting HVAC system settings $205,000 Cost per Job (CapEx and OpEx estimates are for both public and private sectors) Page 27

28 1) Energy Efficiency and Automation in Buildings Residential Building Envelope 3% of existing building stock retrofitted every year Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 385,000 mt (10.1%) NOx 127,000 kg (2.8%) PM10 4,500 kg (1.1%) Jobs Created 17,000 jobs Includes insulation, high-performing glazing and airtight construction for floors, roofs, walls, and facades. $176,000 Cost per Job (CapEx and OpEx estimates are for both public and private sectors) Page 28

29 2) Combined Heat and Power (CHP) 30% of total heating generated by CHP in 2050 Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 503,000 mt (13.2%) NOx -741,000 kg (-16.2%) PM10 36,000 kg (9.0%) Generates electricity and heating from a single fuel source at the point of use Base emissions are allocated ~20% to heat generation, ~80% to electricity generation Savings depend on cleanness of electricity mix Jobs Created 11,492 jobs $69,000 Cost per Job Page 29

30 3) Reduction in Car Demand 10% shift of car demand distributed equally to all other transport modes Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 69,000 mt (1.8%) NOx 60,000 kg (1.3%) PM10 9,600 kg (2.4%) Reduction in passenger miles by car distributed to all other modes based on their relative modal share. Could include a variety of measures, including improved public transport or tax incentives to reduce car use. Jobs Created Zero Page 30

31 4) Electric Cars 65% of conventional combustion cars replaced with electric Reductions in annual emissions from today to 2050: CO2e 510,000 mt (13.4%) NOx 921,000 kg (19.9%) PM10 54,000 kg (13.7%) Combined Heat and Power Assumes that e-cars replace a certain share of total cars (including private cars) in the city and that the City installs and operates e-car charging infrastructure Jobs Created 9,574 semi-skilled $70,000 Cost per Job (CapEx and OpEx estimates are for public charging infrastructure only) Page 31

32 In 2050 Page 32 Cities Center of Competence

33 Page 33

34 In ,000,000 5,000,000 Difference in Electricity and Heating Consumption by Buildings, Today v (in MWh) 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Electricity Consumption: Using average 2015 electricity prices in Minnesota (kwh=$0.11) Annual savings are equal to $337.5M 0 Electricity consumption Heating consumption Page 34

35 In ,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Difference in Electricity and Heating Consumption by Buildings + Increase in Electricity Consumption by Transport, Today v (in MWh) 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, With implementation of electric cars and electric forms of public transport, electricity consumption from transport will increase by 884,500 MWh 0 Electricity consumption Heating consumption Page 35

36 Facts Related to Buildings-Related Energy Savings Annual electricity savings in buildings equal to the consumption of 166,099 homes Total energy savings in buildings equal to 3.4 billion pounds of coal Annual heat savings in buildings equal to the consumption of 185,000 homes Total energy savings in buildings equal to 85% of a coal fired power plant Page 36

37 In % Mode Share for Passenger Transport (% of Passenger Miles Traveled) 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Walking Cycling Commuter Rail LRT Street Car BRT Bus Taxi Car % 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 0.7% 91.9% % 2.9% 0.4% 9.0% 9.3% 2.1% 15.5% 2.5% 56.8% Page 37

38 APPENDIX Page 38 Cities Center of Competence

39 Xcel Scenarios and Emissions Factors NSP system CO2 rate (lbs CO2/MWh) Scenario # Scenario family Description Preferred Plan Wind + Solar 1, B Preferred Plan Wind + Solar + Retire SH , F Preferred Plan Wind + Solar + Retire SH , SH , G Preferred Plan Wind + Solar + Retire SH , SH , Retire SH1 (Retire SH1 YE2025, SH2 YE2030) Replace: CC 1, C Retire SH1 (Retire SH1 YE2025, SH2 YE2030) Replace 75% Renew: CT + Wind + Solar + DSM 1, Retire Both Units (Retire SH1 YE2025, SH2 YE2025) Replace: CC 1, C Retire Both Units (Retire SH1 YE2025, SH2 YE2025) Replace 75% Renew: CT + Wind + Solar + DSM 1, Retire SH1 (Retire SH1 YE2020, SH2 YE2030) Replace: CC 1, C Retire SH1 (Retire SH1 YE2020, SH2 YE2030) Replace 75% Renew: CT + Wind + Solar + DSM 1, Retire Both Units (Retire SH1 YE2020, SH2 YE2023) Replace: CC 1, Page 39 27C Retire Both Units (Retire SH1 YE2020, SH2 YE2023) Replace 75% Renew: CT + Wind + Solar + DSM 1,

40 Overview of Methodology for Calculating FTEs Full-time equivalents (FTEs) Direct, indirect and induced jobs Associated with installation, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure Gross, not net, job creation Estimates based on: Top-down studies of infrastructure investments in the US Bottom-up figures from Siemens experience Page 40

41 Number of Charging Stations Per Electric Car Copenhagen 3 Oslo 7 Berlin 1.6 Hamburg 3.5 Los Angeles 19 Amsterdam 2 New York 3 Kanagawa 5 London 2 Gotō Islands 13 Page 41

42 Example of FTE Calculation for New Metro Lines 5 New Metro Lines Ca.246,400 FTEs over 35 years = 7,040 on an annual basis 41% = local worker 27% = technician 32% = highly skilled Combination of Capital Expenditures and Operational Expenditures CapEx for employment calculation is estimated to be 60% of total CapEx spend to remove any jobs linked to vehicle production CapEx jobs are estimated based upon the length and cost of the proposed line. Number of jobs per miles of track built. OpEx jobs are calculated based upon the number of miles of operating rail Assuming a 35 year build cycle, with part of the line open and running in year 2 Year 1 only CapEx jobs included in estimation (ca.3% of rail track to be delivered). No OpEx Year 2 Construction continues with ca. 6% complete at year end and OpEx included based upon the ca.3% of rail line open. Page 42