Mobile Ecosystem Imperative:

Transcription

1 Outsmart Your Competitors Mobile Ecosystem Imperative: Standards & Spectrum, Video and Applications June 2011 Presented by: Peter Jarich Service Director Ron Westfall Research Director Washington DC / London / Paris

2 Agenda Current Analysis and the Mobile Ecosystem the problems to be solved the ecosystem definition structure & content The Mobile Ecosystem in Practice Nokia & MSFT vs. LTE usage & experience drivers M2M communications HTML5 carriers & application developers usage & experience supports spectrum & silicon video optimization offload evolution Conclusions / Q&A 2

3 The Problem 3

4 The Problem LTE/4G Usage Caps and Tiers Device Functionality Silicon Functionality Cloud Offload vs. Caching vs. Optimization 4

5 The Problem Telecom Vendors and Service Providers have the tools to track and prepare for competitive issues in their immediate business arenas well served by Current Analysis tactical services Technology-intensive Businesses are Highly Sensitive to Changes Coming from Outside Their Immediate Business Solutions Must consider the ocean of information identify the issues of importance analyze the implications (immediate and near-term) present analysis in concise, digestible, and portable formats 5

6 Definitions & Axioms Technology-intensive Businesses are Highly Sensitive to Changes Coming from Outside Their Immediate Business The Mobile Ecosystem service takes a holistic view of the mobile industry ecosystem breaks down silos of analysis examines how events in the individual business segments impact the evolution of the mobile industry leverages deep base of existing CA mobility analysis provides clients a comprehensive view across CA segments and services Mobile Device Silicon Enterprise Mobility Handsets and Connected Devices Mobile Access (Service Provider) Infrastructure Consumer /Carrier Services 6

7 Ecosystem in Practice: 2011 s News? LTE Commitments 154 in 60 countries spectral efficiency scalability throughput cell capacity multimedia applications multimedia devices silicon advances competition 7

8 Ecosystem in Practice: 2011 s News? Microsoft + Nokia Windows Phone pains distribution support software offload monetization opportunities operator interest in OS diversity differentiation vs. fragmentation 8

9 Ecosystem in Practice: 2011 s News? Common Themes? Microsoft + Nokia LTE Commitments Driving Mobile Broadband Usage compelling devices device diversity device & net capabilities device & net economics Supporting Traffic Growth network efficiencies scale efficiencies new architectures 9

10 Driving Usage: HTML5 HTML5: The Promise write once, read anywhere claw momentum against fragmentation drive application scale drive application diversity leverage device intelligence HTML5: The Progress Facebook / Apple Wholesale Application Community App Stores Zeewe OpenAppMkt PhoneGap W3C/Widget Standards 10

11 Driving Usage: HTML5 HTML5: The Pitfalls HTML5 still in its infancy HTML won t ensure consistency implementations browsers apps are becoming mission critical enterprise branded focus on user experience how much has scale been held back by fragmentation? 11

12 Driving Usage: Carriers & App Developers Application Developer Programs platform vendors device vendors carriers everyone else 12

13 Driving Usage: Carriers & App Developers What s in it for Carriers? app volume app experience custom solutions (enterprise) exclusivity developer education API usage cool image platform agenda pushing What s in it for Developers device access device insights cross-platform resources marketing support 13

14 Driving Usage: M2M Communications M2M s Ascent in Mobile Ecosystem M2M Ecosystem modules and devices management and platforms connectivity applications M2M Drivers 50 Billion connections by 2020? operators seek central role SIM and platform innovation M2M Insights infrastructure portfolios/assets = M2M opportunities revenues up but profitable? connectivity/management integration trend 14

15 Supporting Usage: Spectrum & Silicon Spectrum Scarcity and Challenges mobile silicon supporting more options regulators/operators seek spectrum flexibility silicon, equipment, devices = more integration LTE bands of note 1800 MHz LTE Band 12 spectrum outcomes influence ecosystem LTE Bands Long-Term Role 700 MHz U.S. (Verizon, AT&T); India 800/850 MHz GSM regions; Digital Dividend 900 MHz GSM regions; Rural/Indoor 1800 MHz Multi-region GSM backing; Goldilocks Band 1900 MHz Americas; AWS 2100 MHz EU; Niche and Transition Band MHz Asia, Europe: WiMAX sub, TD-LTE 15

16 Supporting Usage: Video Optimization 16

17 Supporting Usage: Video Optimization 17

18 Supporting Usage: Video Optimization Mobile Video Optimization: The Options preparation transcoding caching delivery transrating pacing policy Mobile Video Optimization: The Questions content ownership? hierarchy of needs? traffic mix? device mix? network vs. device? central vs. distributed (Gi congestion)? monetization? app-based (zero-rating) quality-based experience-based net neutrality? Source: Cisco VNI Mobile,

19 Supporting Usage: Offload Evolution Why Offload? mobile broadband usage growth expectations impact on RAN impact on core impact on CapEx / OpEx impact on quality finite spectrum resources The Offload We Know distributed packet core WiFi femtocells small cells multicast The Offload Emerging device-based connection managers RAN-based content caching device-based content caching Source: Cisco VNI Mobile,

20 Topics and Coverage Themes application development femtocells & infrastructure machine-to-machine communications mobile commerce mobile marketing mobile device silicon Topics standards evolutions and bodies spectrum trends regulatory issues technology trends technology marketing service provider business models mobile Video Optimization HTML5 cloud services spectrum re-farming mobile data offload small cells 20

21 Conclusions / Q&A Mobility Driving Telecom Agenda Mobility Needs To Be Seen as an Ecosystem silicon, devices, networks, devices, applications threats no longer confined to immediate market tactical intelligence (short-view) key for competing strategic intelligence (long-view) key for remaining competitive CA Covers The Mobile Ecosystem Components and the Broader Ecosystem Itself 21 21

22 Thank you Name: Peter Jarich Title: Service Director Phone: