Operator 4G Networks and Services

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1 Operator 4G Networks and Services Rich Karpinski Senior Analyst, 451 Research/Yankee Group Mobility 9/16/2014

mobile service, device, apps/cloud and marketing/commerce revenue

2 Mobile Broadband is Biggest Piece of New Mobile Economy The New Mobile Economy will nearly TRIPLE in size by 2017 The combination of mobile service, device, apps/cloud and marketing/commerce revenue will reach $3.1 trillion by 2017, according to 451/Yankee Group forecasts.

3 Global: Smartphone Sales and Usage Soar 2017: 3 Billion Smartphones in Use Asia-Pacific* Middle East & Africa Europe Latin America* Smartphones in use grows 12X 2009: 239 million 2017: 3 Billion North America* The numbers of smartphones in use globally will increase more than 12 fold from 2009 to 2017, with more than half of that growth concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region.

2017: 3 Billion North America* The numbers of smartphones in use globally will increase more

4 Global: Billions of Connections, Trillions in Revenues 7 BILLION Mobile Lines Mobile operators have been challenged by the mobile revolution, but the opportunities are massive this year crossing the 7 billion connection and $1 trillion revenue marks.

the mobile revolution, but the opportunities are massive this

5 U.S.: Mobile Line Penetration Above 100% U.S. already over 100% Globally, mobile penetration (by line) will cross the 100% mark this year.

6 U.S.: Data Market Exceeds Voice Successful data monetization keeps U.S. voice + data growth positive The U.S. will soon reach a landmark milestone, with data revenues for the first time exceeding voice revenues.

7 U.S.: Operators Are Leaders in LTE Deployment Verizon 100% legacy coverage, leveraging cableco spectrum AT&T 40-plus spectrum deals, hotspot/small cell focus Sprint Playing catch-up but leapfrogging with Spark T-Mobile Momentum as much about the network as uncarrier The U.S. leads the world with 180 million registered LTE lines expected to be deployed by 2017.

catch-up but leapfrogging with Spark T-Mobile Momentum as much about the network as

8 U.S. Market Structure and Consolidation U.S. market is in a time of great structural change and evolution T-Mobile/MetroPCS Sprint/Softbank/Clearwire(Dish still on the outside) AT&T/Leap Not the end point Will we boil down to three big operators ultimately? Will we ever see a wild card play? Will (LTE) wholesale/roaming market emerge to support other players? The U.S. is fully a 4G LTE market All major operators deep into LTE rollouts looking at LTE-Advanced

down to three big operators ultimately? Will we ever see a wild card play?

9 4G/LTE SWOT: Verizon Wireless Market and Network Strategy Premium LTE network player, mandatory shared data plans Essentially 100% LTE coverage; moving to 2X20 carriers in key markets Solutions: Major enterprise focus plus Terremarkcloud acquisition Strengths Diverse spectrum position in effective bands Strong 700 MHz position/lots of spectrum (cableco) Opportunities Aggressive LTE rollout, shared data offers set the stage for claim to premium market Weaknesses 3G service limited by CMDA EVDO capabilities Threats Traffic loads from LTE must be dealt with now Value offers from rivals may undercut premium play U.S. LTE market leader presses advantages of early start

position/lots of spectrum (cableco) Opportunities Aggressive LTE rollout, shared data offers set the stage for claim to premium market Weaknesses 3G service limited by

10 4G/LTE SWOT: AT&T Market and Network Strategy Catching up to Verizon with HSPA+, LTE transition strategy Fueled network with 40+ spectrum acquisitions plus Cricket (refarmingfor 4G) Solutions: Strong digital lifestyle push: Digital Home / Connected Car + Enterprise Cloud Strengths Diverse spectrum position in effective bands (700/850/AWS/PCS) + national Wi-Fi network Opportunities HSPA+LTE offsets Verizon LTE lead Biz dev: uverse, Digital Home, Connected Devices, etc Weaknesses iphone-heavy base still evolving from 3G to 4G Growth slower than Verizon; voluntary shared data Threats VZW s 100% LTE coverage and net add momentum Lack of Band 17 devices/wcs Band devices Solid network and management deep enterprise roots

Wi-Fi network Opportunities HSPA+LTE offsets Verizon LTE lead Biz dev: uverse, Digital Home, Connected Devices, etc Weaknesses iphone-heavy base still evolving from 3G to 4G Growth

11 4G/LTE SWOT: Sprint Market and Network Strategy Corporate intrigue and network challenges slow network and services evolution 4G WiMAX to multi-radio Network Vision to 2.5GHz Project Spark Solutions: Readying major small/medium enterprise cloud solutions/google Apps push Strengths Network Vision base station path to 1900Mhz LTE Softbank investment; Clearwire spectrum on tap Opportunities Network Vision drives opex down, capacity up Wholesale operation yields MVNO opportunities Weaknesses Juggling iden, CDMA, WiMAX, FDD LTE, TD-LTE No 700 MHz LTE spectrum impacts data coverage Threats Ongoing financial turnaround, merger challenges Wholesale/multi-brand prepaid model falters Challenged by T-Mobile, Softbank needs to see growth -- soon

Clearwire spectrum on tap Opportunities Network Vision drives opex down, capacity up Wholesale operation yields MVNO opportunities Weaknesses Juggling iden, CDMA, WiMAX, FDD LTE, TD-LTE

12 4G/LTE SWOT: T-Mobile Market and Network Strategy Uncarrier strategy yields significant growth HSPA+LTE network strategy and 2x20 spectrum in top markets Solutions: Relatively quiet in enterprise but a BYOD factor Strengths National HSPA footprint becoming an LTE footprint Low-cost data/value plan no-subsidy device pricing Opportunities Using newly acquired spectrum to deliver 2x20Mhz HSPA+ on 1900 MHz transition attracts iphone users Weaknesses Starting LTE rollout later than others (2013 launch) Threats Acquistion/merger distractions Lack of enterprise mobility focus Fastest growing U.S. operator in recent quarters

device pricing Opportunities Using newly acquired spectrum to deliver 2x20Mhz HSPA+ on 1900 MHz transition attracts iphone users Weaknesses Starting LTE

13 Beyond the Network: Operator Mobility Solutions Operators are a major factor in enterprise mobility strategies If nothing else, LTE networks central to mobile productivity IT must understand LTE roadmaps specific to geographies and markets Business shared data plans augment custom pricing especially helpful in BYOD situations AT&T, Verizon have major enterprise groups Sprint repositioning toward cloud, SME T-Mobile is minor B2B player but BYOD factor (a la Apple) Application emphasis Mobile device management, via partnerships Cloud telecom/collaboration Microsoft, Cisco, Google Apps Value add: mobile network bundles, security, single sign-on, FMC/Wi-Fi integration Weaknesses: less agile then best-of-breed vendors; geographic limitations

groups Sprint repositioning toward cloud, SME T-Mobile is minor B2B player but BYOD factor (a la Apple) Application emphasis Mobile device management, via partnerships Cloud

MobileMetricsThatMatter: Ten Data Points That Will Define the Next Wave of the New Mobile Economy

MobileMetricsThatMatter: Ten Data Points That Will Define the Next Wave of the New Mobile Economy Rich Karpinski Senior Analyst, Yankee Group Carl Howe Vice President, Yankee Group Nov. 5, 2013 Page 1