The Impact of 4G and IoT on the RFFE Market. Presented by Kevin Schoenrock of QORVO

Transcription

1 The Impact of 4G and IoT on the RFFE Market Presented by Kevin Schoenrock of QORVO

2 RF Front-End (RFFE) Competitive Landscape Strong Growth Consolidation TQNT + RFMD = QORVO Top 4 vendors ~ 85% share Vertical Integration for Modules Cost, TTM, Scale, Optimization Technology Change Investment: Top 3 ~$1.3B Capex last 12 months Source: Mobile Experts RF Front Ends for Mobile Devices 2015 May 2015

3 Early Stages of 4G Adoption / RF Integration 4G still in Early Innings <10% of Global Connections CY Global Mobile Connections including M2M 1 RF Complexity Increasing Band Quantity / Carrier Aggregation 2G > 4G (10X+ RF Content) Dense Integration Drives Capex Handsets ~Flat Units Masks RF Opportunity <35% Smartphones Utilize RF Modules Connections (Billions) Next Growth Unit Driver IoT Order of Magnitude more devices 2G 3G 4G (1) Source: GSMA and Qorvo

4 Data Demand is Driving Market Opportunity Cellular Social Media, Apps, Web, , etc. RF Complexity in Mobile Phones 1 Total Frequency Bands IoT Price > Multitude of Applications and Potential Business Models Cisco Visual Networking Index Global IP Traffic Forecast Handset Downlink CA Forecast 2 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, (1) Source: Qorvo Management (2) Source: Mobile Experts RF Front Ends for Mobile Devices 2015 May 2015

5 Mobile Phones: More Data = More Complexity Mobile RFFE TAM: Integrated vs. Discrete Components 1 RFFE Phone Board PCB Area / Integration Examples 2 (1) Source: Mobile Experts RF Front Ends for Mobile Devices 2015 May 2015 (2) Source: ABI Research Tear Down Services

6 Integrated Module Sub-Component Demand Antenna Switch Forecast: Main & Diversity Paths Duplexer & Band Pass Filter Forecast Quantity (Millions) Source: Navian RF Devices / Modules for Cellular Report February 2015

7 RF Filter Sub-Component Complexity Zero TCF SAW WLP Filters TC BAW Carrier Aggregation 8 9 Mask Layers Process Steps Complexity Drives Capacity Needs Beyond Unit Growth 2011 TC SAW 6 7 Mask Layers Process Steps 2007 BAW MP 2005 BAW Develop Regular SAW 2 3 Mask Layers Process Steps

8 More Complexity = Product Fragmentation RF Product Fragmentation Enhances Forecast Inaccuracies Reduces Scale Efficiencies Drives Cost of Inventory & Support Limits Sub-Component Pre-Builds Adds Risk to Build to Forecast Drive Standards & Configurations Beneficial to Device Makers Standards RF Arch #3 RF Supplier Share Vendor B RF Module Selection / Content Chipset Selection A vs. B Share Device Maker Forecast RF Arch #2 RF Arch #1 Band Combinations Vendor A Forecast Accuracy Harmonize RF Front End Set Foundation for IoT Growth True Market Demand

9 IoT: Many Technologies Connecting the World Multiple Technologies Working Together Enabling Connectivity Not just Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Machine-to-People / People-to-Machine Machine/People-to-Objects Wide Scope of Markets, Various Adoption Profiles, Build IoT Market Momentum Wired WPAN WLAN WWAN Ethernet Coax Fiber Etc Bluetooth ANT ZigBee Etc x Cellular Satellite (1) Source: IHS 2015 IoT Presentation for Qorvo

10 Diverse End Markets Drive RF Requirements Wide Variety of Market Segments / Applications with Different RF Needs Internet Connectable Devices Installed Base and New Shipments 1 90,000 18,000 80,000 16,000 Automotive / Fleet Tracking 70,000 60,000 14,000 12,000 Portable Computing Last-mile Access Medical Connectable Devices (M) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Industrial: Lighting, Power, Energy, Security, Building Automation, Connected Farm Automotive Communications Computers Consumer Industrial Medical Military & Aerospace Total Internet Connectable Devices Consumer: Home Automation and Appliance, Consumer Electronics (1) Source: IHS 2015 Extended Forecast Presented to Qorvo Management

11 Summary: 4G/IoT Impact on the 200mm Fab 4G Driving Component Growth, Transitioning to IoT Data Demand, Low Penetration, Global Architecture w/ More Bands, Difficult Specifications/Complexity (Module & Die Level) Continue to Drive Capex Investment Product / Market Fragmentation Understanding Key to Streamlining Processes & Efficiency for New IoT Fabs Encourage Standardization of the RF (Inventory / LT Risk) Know your Customer s Customer > Reduce Forecast Risk Understanding RF Vendors Technology Investments (Why)

12 End of Presentation Thank you for your Time