High Speed Rail and PPPs

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "High Speed Rail and PPPs"

Coleen Chapman
7 years ago
Views:

1 High Speed Rail and PPPs Lessons from the French experience Julien Dehornoy Vice President, SNCF America November 3,

2 French HSR network 1981 through ,300 miles of HSL 3,000 miles of conventional lines used by HSR HSL 1981 (HS1) (HS2) 1994 (HS3 / 4) (HS5) 2007 (HS6) 2011 Everyday : 700 domestic TGVs 200 int l TGVs 250 stations (230 in France) up to 130 trains/direction on the busiest routes 2

3 The largest HSR operation in Europe pass.km (bn) UK SE FI SI PT NL CZ BE Others 7.2% 11% 10,6% 48,7% ES IT DE 22,4% FR 122M passenger took SNCF TGV in 2010, including 98.5M in high speed trains in France and 23.4M in international trains SNCF Voyages is high speed leader in Europe TGV represents more than 90% of SNCF long distance revenue Total turnover of SNCF Voyages : 7.2 billion in 2010, including 24% on international trains (1,7 bn ) SNCF Voyages has launched several successful brands & offers to reach many customer targets (idtgv, idnight, TGV Pro, TGV Family, ) Sources: Annual report SNCF Renfe 6% Others 18% DB 12% SNCF 26% JR (Japon) 38% 26% in the world 3

4 The impact of HSR on the French economy % 90% 80% 70% 60% % % % % 10% 200 0% Patronage (pax, m) Investment cost ($m/mile) % of capital costs recouped Cost of additional passenger ($/pax) Source : Taroux & Chapulut (2010), own calculations l Total capital cost : $32.5 bn (2010 value) from grants ($9.4 bn) & farebox ($23.1 bn) (but conventional network alreading existing) Total value creation : $190 bn (time saved, increased productivity of transport system, externalities) Sources: French Ministry of Sustainable Development 4

5 Experience with rail PPPs in the world Already in XIXth century in France : 40 years concessions (extended to 99 years), right of way granted to the companies, public loan guarantees in America : land grants (175m acres = Germany, Italy & Switzerland put together) PPPs are coming back as a way to easee project financing and improve project management efficiency Recent experience accross Europe International ti : Eurotunnel, Perpignan-Figueiras i Sweden : Arlanda Express Netherlands : HSL Zuid and abroad Taiwan : High speed rail USA : Denver commuter rail Spain : Olmedo Ourense France : Orlyval, GSM-R, SEA, BPL, CNM UK : CTRL/HS1 South Africa : Gautrain 5

6 France has the largest rail PPP program in the world HSL BPL 1981 (HS1) (HS2) 1994 (HS3 / 4) (HS5) SEA 2007 (HS6) 2011 CNM 4 PPP contracts : GSM-R : equipment of 8,000 miles with telecom system, contract signed (02/2010) SEA : 200 mile HSL, contract signed (06/2011) BPL : 134 mile HSLcontract signed (07/2011) CNM : 50 mile HSL, award in CNM : 50 mile HSL, award in progress 6

7 Two rail PPPs in France GSM-R $ total costs public payments Investment cost : $1,0 bn over 5 years Sum of public payments : $1,4 bn (investment + capital costs) Experience : harder to find private debt than expected public guarantees on loans / public invest. banks (EIB, CDC) construction ti operation SEA Contract signed in June 2011 Investment cost : $ 9.4 bn (+$ 1.5 bn on conventional network) Experience : very complex political issue (57 public authorities!) public guarantees on loans / public invest. banks (EIB, CDC) ridership forecast / risk sharing credibility? Investment t costs : $9.4 bn $3.1 bn $1.5 bn $4.8 bn SEA RFF Grants windfall effect State access charges Regions 7

8 Diversity of rail PPPs in the world private Commercial risk public infra & transport infra only Airport express : Heathrow, Arlanda, Lyon THSR (Taiwan) Gautrain (SA) SEA (FR) Perp. Figueiras (FR/ES) Eurotunnel (FR/UK) GSM-R, CNM, BPL (FR) HSL Zuid (NL) transport only HSA (NL) long UK passenger franchises distance regional 8! But many failures, especially when private sector retains commercial risk Ridership forecasts most frequently over-optimistic optimistic Heathrow Express -50% CTRL -60% Taiwan HSR -60% Al Arlanda Express -50% AREX -92% Eurotunnel -60%

9 Two types of PPPs for high speed lines Partnership contract (BPL) Concession contract (SEA) commercial risk farebox State Regions tate Regions grants capital cost risk investment costs availability payment access charges maintenance cost risk maintenance costs grants capital cost risk investment costs commercial risk maintenance cost risk access charges maintenance costs farebox construction operation construction operation 9 25 years 45 years

10 Key messages About HSR in general HSR created value can be much larger the actual investment costs Hard to recoup significant share of capital costs with ridership below 25m/year and investment costs above $25m/mi About PPPs in HSR Wide diversity of PPPs for HSR, everything is possible : infrastructure re only, transport only or infrastruct ture + transport commercial risk can be born by public or private sector Very bad record of private sector bearing commercial risk Strong financial involvement of public sector necessary : loan guarantees, public investment banks 10

11 Thank you for your attention ti 11

"PLANNING FOR THE OPTIMAL HSR CITY PAIRS" THE MEDITERRANEAN HSL IN FRANCE. Fabrice MOREL

"PLANNING FOR THE OPTIMAL HSR CITY PAIRS" THE MEDITERRANEAN HSL IN FRANCE Fabrice MOREL Sncf Voyages, International Development Director Paris, France "PLANNING FOR THE OPTIMAL HSR CITY PAIRS" THE MEDITERRANEAN