High Speed Rail in Australia

Transcription

1 High Speed Rail in Australia

2 1980s VFT Sydney Canberra Melbourne Early 1990s SpeedRail Sydney Canberra Late 1990s VHST Competition Sydney Canberra with 4 bidders km/h High Speed + Tilting Capability km/h Very High Speed Non Tilting 500 km/h Maglev ARUP-TMG ECVHST Study 2001; Rail CRC Study 2009/2010; Infrastructure Partnerships Australia/AECOM Report September Department of Infrastructure and Transport Internal Brief A profile of high Speed railways 2011 Government award of new study phase Stage 2 study awarded Proposals / EOI s / Studies

3 Key Study Objectives East Coast Very High Speed Train Study 2001 Is there a place in Australia s transport strategy and policy for an East Coast VHST? To provide the Australian Government with an analysis of VHST potential, approaching the issue from a national benefit perspective and within a longer- term transport infrastructure context.

4 ECVHST Study - Last words in an EC VHST could have a place in Australia s transport future. The securing of that place, however, would be dependent on whether it can become an integral part of a vision and action plan for a new paradigm of development, mobility and transportation connectivity in the East Coast corridor. If it does have a place, an EC VHST will not achieve it in the absence of political vision and leadership, long-term bipartisan political commitment, the full participation of all Governments and the collective will and skills of Australians. Full Report available at: rail/publications/index.aspx

5 Japan in Key Historical National Priorities Reduce energy consumption; Lessen dependence on imported oil; Create new development centres on a national economic spine; Reduce pressures on major cities by long distance work commuting.

6 France (TGV) 1981

7 France (TGV) - Key Historical National Priorities Reduce energy consumption; Lessen dependence on imported oil; Solve lack of capacity between Paris and Lyon; Create an export technology.

8 Germany (ICE) 1991

9 Germany (ICE) Key Historical National Priorities Fast Services for Passengers and Freight; Land bridging between Eastern and Western Europe; Create an integrated capacity in internal mobility and cross border trade; Reunification of East and West Germany.

10 And now? China s Harmony Express Guangzhou(10.33 million) to Wuhan (8.97 million); terminus to terminus1023km; two 8-car trains each way - non-stop time 3hr8min; Average speed 326 km/h; limited stop trains - 3 hr42mins to 3hr 56mins; fastest top speed in the world of 394km/h.

11 And now China - Key National Reasons To Increase the rail capacity by separating passenger and freight lines; Promote regional development; Raise current technology standards, catalyze innovation in its industry, export these technologies; National integration through the compression of time and space. Source: Karl Fung Research,2010 The Central People s Government of the People s Republic of China (2005), Mid-to- Long Term Railway Development Plan Ministry of Railway, (2008), Mid-to-Long Term Railway Development Plan (Revised 2008)

12 To increase the rail capacity by separating passenger and freight lines; Promote regional development; Raise current technology standards, catalyze innovation in its industry, export these technologies; National integration through the compression of time and space. China s Big National Reasons kms HSR operational; ,000 kms under construction; ,000 kms of HSR operational ,000 kms and 90% of population

13 China s Achievements Guangzhou(10.33 million) to Wuhan (8.97 million); Terminus to terminus =1023km; Two 8-car trains each way - nonstop time 3hr8min; Average speed 326 km/h; Limited stop trains - 3 hr42mins to 3hr 56mins; Fastest top speed in the world of 394km/h. Beijing Tianjin HST at Beijing South Station

14 7th World Congress, Beijing

15 Beijing South Station and Onboard CRH 380

16 Running at 350 km/h

17 It s not about the technology... Source:

18 ..Its about Big National Goals So what are the Australian BIG NATIONAL GOALS Which justify investing massive taxpayer funds into an HSR system??? Australian National Flag flying at Parliament House, Canberra Photo: Auspic

19 East Coast Population Centres Brisbane 2,000,000 Sunshine Coast 250,000 Gold Coast Tweed 580,000 Coffs Harbour 52,000 Port Macquarie 43,000 Wagga Wagga 58,000 Albury- Wodonga 104,000 Shepparton 49,000 Bendigo 90,000 Ballarat 94,000 Geelong 175,000 Melbourne 4,000,000 Newcastle 540,000 Sydney 4,500,000 Wollongong 280,000 Canberra 400,000 Source: ECVHST Study 2001 and Wikipedia

20 HSR and Regional Development The World Bank High Speed Rail: The Fast Track to Economic Development? July 2010 Lobbying by States South Australia should sit up, take notice and claim a seat at the table of the federal inquiry into high-speed rail Lobbying by cities and towns The Illawarra Mercury collected 70,000 signatures in support of HST going via Wollongong in the 90s; Shepparton left behind as report shows faster rate of growth for cities with VLocity trains The indirect effects of a high speed line do not appear automatically, Prof E Quinet.

21 East Coast Geographic Realities Sydney Brisbane Coastal Corridor 770 kms (Actual rail distance 988 kms) Brisbane Sydney Newcastle Corridor 117 kms (Actual rail distance 168 kms) Sydney Canberra corridor 250 kms (Actual rail distance 330 kms) Sydney Melbourne Inland corridor 730 kms (Actual rail distance 963 kms Sydney) Same as: Beijing to Shanghai; or Brussels to Madrid; or Sapporo to Hakata; or New York to Jacksonville (FA) Newcastle Canberra Melbourne Source: ECVHST Study 2001

22 Australia In Perspective - Scale Brisbane Source: UIC Melbourne ~1360 kms

23 Australia in Perspective - World s Flattest Continent? Comparison of Fast Train Route Alignments Madrid Sydney - Canberra VHST 500 Altitude of Alignment Madrid - Seville Ave Canberra Stockholm - Gothenberg (X2000) Paris-Sud-Est New Line Profile (TGV - PSE & RESAU) 100 Seville SYDNEY Distance Source: PB Thornton Research

24 How fast is fast enough?

25 Sydney Canberra Cost of Speed Time Time by Rail in Hours Travel Time as a Function of Upgrade Cost Sydney Canberra ~ 250 kms Existing Service 145 km/h Diesel km/h Tilting Trains 500 km/h Maglev Upgrade Cost $ billions Source: Press reports 350 km/h "TGV" type Trains

26 Sydney Canberra Patronage Response Patronage as a function of Travel Time Patronage p.a (millions) Slow growth initially as transit time reduces Fall off in patronage growth at less than 1.5 Paradigm Shift in patronage starts at about hours Sydney - Canberra Travel Time By Rail in Hours Source : Capital Rail Research

27 Sydney Canberra Investment Sweet Spot? Travel Time by Rail in Hours Paradigm shift in Patronage Travel Time as a Function of Upgrade Cost Patronage in Millions Source: Capital Rail 1998 Insufficient investment to generate patronage Dimishing patronage for rapidly increasing investment Investment Target Zone??? Upgrade Cost $ billions

28 Mega city A model for an Australian HST? Regional city A City Traversing System Regional city A Few Journey Possibilities

29 Elements of An Australian HST Where first?; Who owns; Who pays; Who delivers; Who operates and maintains? Newcastle Sunshine Coast Brisbane Gold Coast/Tweed Shire Albury/Wodonga Canberra Sydney Geelong Melbourne

30 Newcastle to Sydney and then Canberra? Lower Hunter Region? Newcastle CBD Central Coast Gosford City of Parramatta City of Sydney Goulbourn Southern Highlands? Canberra CBD ACT Region Urban and Regional growth

31 Canberra which way next? To Sydney To Melbourne 20 year old corridor reserved for VFT? To Melbourne

32 Delivery Staging for An Australian HST Unified Plan; Deliverable in commercial stages; One technical Specification; COTS Technology Common operating systems Stage 2b - North Stage 2a - North Sunshine Coast Brisbane Gold Coast/Tweed Shire Stage 3 - North One operator? Stage 1b Stage 1a Newcastle Sydney Stage 2a - South Albury/Wodonga Stage 3 - South Canberra Melbourne Geelong

33 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Sydney Newcastle Regional population 0.54 million Largest coal export port in the world Metropolitan population 4.5 million Largest city in Australia Newcastle Station Civic Station Wickham Station Source: Hamilton Lund & Tourism NSW CBD to CBD Rail kms 2hrs 45mins ($15.60 rtn); Road -164 kms; 2hrs 20mins Air - 45mins plus 56mins ground access; ($166 rtn);

34 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle 27 km Hawkdev tunnel proposal Sydney Max Altitude ~215m Cowan Bank 1:40 Hawkesbury River Newcastle Speed Profile Hor:Ver Profile Diagram courtesy of my colleague Alex Wardrop Max 115 km/h

35 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle All stops Inner Suburban Tight curves / steep grades Limited stops Outer Suburban Urban environment Limited Stops Interurban Many stations Bulk materials Level crossings All photos Courtesy of my colleague Alex Wardop Long Distance passenger 160km/h diesel hauled Intermodal/General Freight Old locos back in service

36 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Sydney (4.5 million) Everywhere except Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong (1.54 million) Newcastle (0.54 million) Source: Department of Planning New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections: 2008 Release Wollongong ( 0.29 million)

37 Central Coast by 2031 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle 100,000 more people to +400,000 But >65 yr olds >24% 56,000 new jobs 7 town centres, 1 regional city Gosford No new transport corridors currently 25% commuting out Any commuting in? Will they pay a commercial fare???

38 Newcastle Sydney Long Distance Passenger Newcastle Suburban Coal Interurban Passenger Intermodal/General Freight Sydney Suburban Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Part of heaviest freight and commuter corridor in Australia Multiuser Corridor: 4 basic sectors; Passengers ~ all day e/w Freight Practical capacity 16 paths per day e/w; Excluded from passenger peak hours; 168 kms long ; 1 in 40 grades; Minimum Curvature 240 m; 8 tunnels km in length 1500V dc electrified; Mostly double track with short sections of triple and quad; 52 Stations.

39 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Sydney Intermodal freight 5 e/w General freight 6-7 e/w Long Distance 4 e/w Coal 2-10 e/w Newcastle Diagram courtesy of my colleague Alex Wardrop Sydney Suburban e/w Inter Urban e/w Newcastle Suburban 9 e/w

40 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Source: Tourism NSW

41 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle Source: Hamilton Lund & Tourism NSW

42 Case Study Sydney - Newcastle A new paradigm of urban development, mobility and transportation connectivity changing the way we live; Demographic trends corridor population increasing; Rail Freight set to grow explosively ; Peak Passenger rail demand high and increasing; Rail corridor capacity issues and upgrade costs; Newcastle Freeway also reaching peak hour capacity; Airport connectivity & capacity constraints; Speed/time records On the 28 June 1964, 3801 was specially booked to run the Newcastle Flyer in an attempt to run non-stop from Sydney to Newcastle in under 2 hours time a new record of 2 hours, 1 minute and 51 seconds was posted by the class leader. This is a record that remains unbroken by any other steam locomotive. wiki/newcastle_flyer Sustainable transport Energy, Safety, Value for money travel.

43 Phase 2 HSR Study Conclusions 1748 kms dedicated route Melb-Can-Syd-Bris; 20 stations; Mix of express and limited stops services; Connectivity to other transport systems; 2012 $ 114 billion - Melb-Syd $50b; Syd-Bris $64b; 46m -111m pax intercity & regional trips central forecast m pax pa; 40% of the intercity air travel market; Syd Mel 19 m pax pa Staging Syd- Can; Can- Mel; Syd- New; Bris-Gold; Gold- New; Syd-Mel = operational by 2035? Govt required to fund upfront infrastructure costs; Funding gap of 86% if commercial funding maximized; If pax forecast achieved, above rail operation self funding if fares comparable to airfares Economic BCR 2.3 to 2.5 at 4% discount rate FIRR and EIRR 7.8%

44 Government commitment; New HSR Study Completed Confirm Big National Reasons ; Successful 1st Stage;? Define next stages of an East Coast HST; Corridors reservations now - city entries and exits; Create defendable zonings;?? So where are we at? Create an HSR business NOT an HSR construction project; "the big difference between Spain and other European countries is that the others plan services while we just plan spending."

45 Keeping an open mind on the subject

46 Is there light at the end of the HSR tunnel?!