The Shifting World: Iran and the Gas-LNG Game

Transcription

1 The Shifting World: Iran and the Gas-LNG Game Paris, 28 April 2016 Bijan Khajehpour

2 INTRODUTION The implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the lifting of key sanctions will gradually pave the way for a new economic dynamics in Iran; The Iranian petroleum sector will benefit from the post-sanctions developments both as a result of increased exports, but also the flow of investments and technology into the country; Gas will play a key role in Iran s future developments, not just as a driver of economic development, but also as a facilitator of regional cooperation; In this presentation I will look at: Developments in the Iranian petroleum sector; The impact of sanctions relief on Iranian production in oil, gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals; Iranian vision in the petroleum sector; The role of gas and energy in Iran s regional relations;

3 GDP COMPOSITION Though the petroleum sector has a large hard currency contribution, Iran is more a service based economy The highest growth sectors are industries and mining In 2015, petroleum export revenues were only 30% of the state budget. Industry and Mining 19% Sectors Contributions to GDP (%) (2014 figures) Oil & Gas 22% Construction 5% Utilities 1% Manufacturing 11% Mining 1% Oil & Gas 22% Services 49% Agriculture 10% Transportation & Communicatio n 9% Hotels, Restaurants 11% Financial services 4% Agriculture 10% General Services 9% Social Services 3% Professional services 14%

4 IRAN S PETROLEUM SECTOR In the past decade, Iran has gone from being a consumer of foreign technology and a pure exporter of oil to being an exporter of oil, gas and petroleum products as well as a hub for energy connectivity in the region; The lifting of sanctions will now shift the attention to attracting foreign investment and technology in order to increase production; The intensive sanctions regime of the past few years created a lot of headaches, but it also gave Iran the opportunity to optimize the utilization of its resources and create domestic capacities; With new European and Asian off-takers, Iran has already embarked on an aggressive return to oil markets to recapture its lost market share. Iran will also invest heavily in producing more gas which will empower the country to export more oil and also promote gas-based industrial exports. In fact, the growing potential of gas will transform Iran and one should start looking at Iran as an exporter of energy in various forms; By 2020 Iran will become the 5 th largest gas market in the world after the US, the EU, Russia and China; There is also a growing emphasis on value-add in the petroleum sector.

5 IRAN S DOMESTIC ENERGY BASKET About 70% of Iran s domestic energy consumption is based on gas; With growing gas production and consumption, more crude oil will be freed for export; At the same time, Iran is expanding its domestic refining capacities to export more petroleum products; Subsidy reforms and an emphasis on energy efficiency have also helped rationalize domestic energy consumption; Million tons oil equivalent Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Hydro

6 IRAN S OIL PRODUCTION 5000 In 000 barrels per day Depends on the talks about a freeze Exports Domestic Consumption

7 GAS PRODUCTION Iran's Gas Production (bcm/y) Projection for 2025: 360 bcm/y Projection

8 ENERGY (IN)EFFICIENCY Though Iran has contained the growth of its energy consumption through subsidy reforms, it is still energy inefficient in its consumption patterns; There is a lot of investment in improving energy efficiency as well as promotion of renewable energy, but more needs to be done in order to maintain major export potential. Per capita Primary Energy Consumption (in kg of oil equivalent per year) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia (Source: BP Statistical Review 2015)

9 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERN 3500 Graph 1: Monthly Electricity Consumption (Average Daily) Kwh/day [1] Farvardin Ordibehesht Khordad Tir Mordad Shahrivar Mehr Aaban Azar Dey Bahman Esfand Average Graph 2: Monthly consumption of gas in residential buildings (in cubic meters) [1] Month Farvardin Ordibehesht Khordad Tir Mordad Shahrivar Mehr Aaban Azar Dey Bahman Esfand [1] Source: Month

10 IRAN S GAS VISION 2025 The Ministry of Petroleum has formulated the plans until 2025 as follows: To remain the third largest gas producer in the world with gas production of 360 bcm/y by 2025 To Inject gas into the oil fields in order to maintain and increase oil production To Supply Gas to Power Stations, Gas Based industries and Petrochemicals and to export the value added products at economically viable prices To Replace domestic demand for petroleum products with gas and maintain the share of gas in Iran s energy basket above 70 percent. To Export Gas to the regional countries, Indian subcontinent and Europe For now, LNG does not feature strongly in the Iranian strategy, but that can change, if relations with Europe (as technology provider) improve; This vision requires capital investment of around $160 billion from local and international sources; Key issues in addition to the need for investments: Energy efficiency; Removal of energy subsidies; Long term gas pricing (still very politicized);

11 GROWING SIGNIFICANCE OF POWER SECTOR The growing demand in the power sector will shift the focus of infrastructure projects to power plants; The below graph depicts the expected investments in the MENA region:

12 Iran is busy building a regional loop system that can involve multi-supplier and multiconsumer nations. IRAN S REGIONAL GRID

13 From Azerbaijan To Turkey And Europe From Turkmenistan Cooperation for Gas Export Amongst the West Asian States of the Persian Gulf and Caspian Region Gas Suppliers Azerbaijan, Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan Gas Takers Turkey, Europe, Indian Subcontinent China, Japan, Kuwait, and UAE From Qatar LNG Export to East Asia & Europe This option would mainly rely on Floating LNG To Indian Subcontinent

14 CONCLUSIONS The lifting of sanctions will unleash a major potential for oil and gas production in Iran; Tehran plans to be a major producer of oil, gas and petrochemical products by It has made the strategic decision to add more value to oil and gas inside the country and will heavily invest in upstream and downstream activities; By 2025, oil production is planned to stand at 6 mbpd and gas production at 1,000 cmc/d (360 bcm/y); Iran s vision for gas exports is to increase regional interconnectivity through pipeline gas exports and eventually to create a regional gas loop system; Iran s gas export potential could help the entire region to produce electricity more efficiently; Key to all these developments will be a de-escalation in the regional tensions; In international markets, the main impact of Iran in the medium term will be on gas-based commodities rather than on gas and LNG markets;