Gas markets and supplies from the former I Soviet Union area. IEA 2013 Energy Training Week Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega Russia Programme Manager

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1 Gas markets and supplies from the former I Soviet Union area IEA 2013 Energy Training Week Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega Russia Programme Manager

2 Outline 1. Russia: energy sector transformation Gas market snapshot Gas exports overview and outlook 2. Ukraine: challenges and opportunities Domestic challenges Gas transit corridor 3. The Caspian & Central Asia: Azerbaijan: second and third gas export streams to Europe Gas supplies to China 4. European gas markets and imports

3 1. Russia: energy sector transformation Gas market snapshot Gas exports overview and outlook

4 Russia s gas balance: Gazprom s position into question Snapshot of Russia s gas balance, Source: Gazprom; Ministry of Energy; Novatek

5 Major energy sector reshuffling Tax breaks, holidays and exemptions Export access Companies Gas transportation routes to Europe Oil exports to the Asia-Pacific New frontier resources New greenfields + liquids rich gas Privatisations

6 Economic challenge: High oil prices do not deliver strong growth anymore Evolution of GDP growth, (projection) USD 69/ barrel USD 78/ barrel USD 109.3/ barrel USD 112/ barrel IMF: International Monetary Fund WB: World Bank Source: IMF, WB, OECD, Rosstat

7 as oil and gas represent almost the entire export value Value of Russia s energy exports to major markets compared to total export value, 2011 Source: WTO Comtrade

8 Gazprom s commercial strategy in Europe in the spotlight Source: Izvestia, 01/02/2013

9 Re-organisation of gas export routes to Europe / preparations for exports Asia Europe: high capex, lower exports Nord Stream Belarus corridor Ukrainian corridor South Stream project Asia: high capex, short time, no contracts yet Upstream: Chayanda, Kovytka, Sakhalin-3 LNG projects at Sakhalin-1 Vladivostok Pipeline projects to China, Japan, South Korea

10 Russia s new upstream and mid-stream projects Source: Gazprom / IEA

11 Far East Gas Programme Source: Gazprom

12 Russian gas supplies to Europe: new routes and the issue of overcapacities?

13 2. Ukraine: challenges and opportunities for reforms Domestic challenges Gas transit corridor

14 Ukraine s gas transmission system is key for regional gas supply security Key gas transmission system and transit position & large energy market

15 Market based gas import prices are incentive for energy sector reforms

16 bcm/year Nord Stream + Yamal + lower demand in Europe bring gas transit to historical low Transit to Moldova/ Turkey/Balkans /Russia Transit to the EU Total gas in transit through Ukraine

17 Imports reduced to minimum level: savings + switching + imports from EU 2012

18 Reap the full benefit from an energy transformation in Ukraine Supply side Foreign companies getting access to licence areas + PSA Changes to the PSA regime Fuel switching to coal Preparations for gas market reforms Lower gas imports

19 Opportunities on the supply side Raising conventional/non conventional gas production Large untapped resources Interest from major foreign oil and gas companies Domestic experience Energy Community Treaty: attractive regulatory framework Gas transmission system: key asset Diversification of supplies now possible Developing renewables

20 Price reforms to market levels needed Gas price and tariff comparison

21 3. The Caspian & Central Asia: Azerbaijan: second and third gas export streams to Europe Gas supplies to China

22 Corridor Phase 2: building on the Caspian s strong export potential Estimate of Caspian/Central Asian gas reserves, Source: IEA The Caspian and Central Asia hold about 13-14% of the world s gas reserves. Turkmenistan s exceptional reserves are a fact and Azerbaijan could also soon count more

23 Gas: key milestones for opening up Shah Deniz 2 production and exports PSA termination pushed back 5 years to 2036 Negotiations with gas buyers + TAP vs Nabucco-West: selection expected in June 2013 Current new schedule: FID end 2013, first gas in H Sengachal terminal expansion South Caucasus Pipeline expansion (7 bcm, 691 km) Parallel 56-inch pipeline to AZ-GE border 2 more compressor stations on 42-inch line through GE 22 bcm by 2018 TANAP

24 Route and pipeline competition for 6 bcma to Turkey and 10 bcma to EU Source: European Commission

25 Southern corridor is flexibly designed with producers playing key role Synchronisation Strong commitment of all stakeholders Fair and clear pipeline selection process Producers involved South Caucasus Pipeline TANAP Nabucco-West and TAP Scalability key as there is more gas beyond Shah Deniz 2 South Caucasus Pipeline TANAP: IGA signed and ratified Nabucco-West and TAP

26 Field/project/ structure Azerbaijan: potential for a third export stream by Reserves, proven or estimated Shah Deniz Tcm BP 25.5%, Statoil 25.5%, Socar 10%, Total 10%, LukAgip 10%, OIEC 10%,, TPAO 9%. Absheron bcm Socar (40%), Total (40%), GDFSuez (20%) Umid Babek 200 bcm; 40 Mt condensate 400 bcm; 80 Mt condensate Companies Status Planned/ potential production plateau Socar; Possibly Nobel oil - Front End Engineering and Design studies - FID expected end /02/2009: PSA - Exploration well drillings Notice of Discovery and Commerciability - Field assessment ongoing -Discovery Two exploration wells drilled since Technical production started Sept from one well - Five more wells to be drilled, third in Q PSA likely in 2013 Estimate production start bcm Q bcm Mcm/gas/day; 2-10 bcm/year Socar; foreign partners - Seismic surveys 6-15 bcm Zafar-Mashal Socar Exploration works during the 2000 could be newly 2025 undertaken ACG deep gas 300 bcm Socar; foreign partner is PSA or specific contract to be signed in bcm 2020 very likely Nakhichevan 300 bcm; 40 Mt condensate Socar, RWE - MoU signed in PSA expected in bcm Shafag-Asiman bcm; 65 million tonnes of condensate Socar, BP MoU with BP PSA with BP seismic surveys, data processing and assessment exploration well drilling bcm

27 Other possible future gas sources Black Sea offshore Romania: advanced exploration Petrom (OMV)-ExxonMobil: Neptun Block; Midia block 15 Lukoil-Vanco: East Rapsodia and Trident Bulgaria: licences awarded Khan Asparuh block: Total and partners Iraq Shale gas in Bulgaria & Romania And also: Turkmenistan Eastern Mediterranean

28 Central Asian gas supplies to China & India are in the European interest Natural gas demand in China Domestic Production Imports China bcm India: Evolution of Capacity by Fuel (New Policies Scenario) Source: IEA Source: IEA China will more than double consumption over the next five years, increasing reliance on imports by pipeline and LNG; India s gas demand will also grow, leading to higher LNG imports and also leaving room for supplies from Central Asia

29 Challenges Central Asia: exports limited by domestic demand? Power + residential demand Chemical and transportation sectors Inefficiency + subsidies Availability of drilling rigs in the Caspian Turkmenistan: No further onshore PSAs? Sales strictly at the border What is the top export priority? Investment & technical challenge How about the offshore?

30 4. European gas markets and imports

31 Gas demand at lowest level, production is stable, import gap lower yet growing

32 Innovative commercial conditions needed Germany: comparison of gas, coal and electricity prices, Gas plants recover fuel costs only Gas plants lose money just on fuel Electricity forward Germany ( /MWh) Gas cost + EUA ( /MWh) Coal cost + EUA ( /MWh)

33 Central European gas markets more integrated Security of supplies Nord Stream prolongation: supplies to Czech Republic and Slovakia, Austria possible North-South gas route being developed Świnoujście LNG terminal Physical dual flows Austria-Slovakia + Czech Republic- Austria+ Poland-Czech Republic Interconnector Austria-Hungary Interconnector Hungary-Romania Interconnector Hungary-Croatia

34 North-South gas corridor + wider Southern gas corridor Potential for shale gas resources and production New or future likely gas flows Bi-directional interconnection that is planned and must be built Bi-directional interconnection already built but that requires upgrade Bi-direction interconnection built Gas connection planned/ to be built Connection built

35 Fostering liquidity and competition in markets Diversification of supplies: Southern gas corridor/black Sea/Polskie LNG Market integration + gas hub Regulation: common network and market rules + efficient & independent supervision and regulation Access to storage capacities Shale gas Biogas Energy Community Treaty

36 Thank you!

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