Emerging Asia Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts

Transcription

1 Research Forecast Report Emerging Asia Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts July 2014 Satvik Singhania, Nipun Jaiswal and Tom Mowat

2 2 About this report This report provides: Figure 1: Summary of report coverage [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the emerging Asia Pacific (EMAP) region as a whole and for key countries an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators. Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). Geographical coverage Regions modelled: Emerging Asia Pacific Countries modelled individually Bangladesh China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major KPIs Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband 1, M2M 2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA Voice traffic Fixed and mobile Outgoing minutes, MoU Revenue Mobile Service 3, retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband 1, M2M 2 Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service 3, retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA ARPU Mobile: SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data For the complete data set and our data series definitions, see the accompanying Excel file at 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. 2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

3 3 Contents Slide no. 9. Executive summary 10. Mobile voice revenue will plateau and mobile handset data will form an increasing proportion of total telecoms retail revenue 11. Mobile messaging and fixed voice and narrowband will be the only two service types to register negative revenue growth during China and India will continue to be the two largest markets in EMAP, together accounting for almost 78% of retail revenue in the region 13. Compared with our previous forecast, mobile handset data revenue will be higher in 2018, but fixed broadband and IPTV, and mobile voice, are lower 14. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market 15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market 16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators 17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison 18. Geographical coverage: Our forecasts include a detailed breakdown of Vietnam for the first time 19. Market context: Most telecoms markets in EMAP are yet to reach saturation 20. Fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband penetration is low and will increase to 9% by 2019, while mobile handset penetration will reach 96% 21. Mobile penetration: Penetration is at only 76.4% despite significant multiple-sim ownership and it will continue to increase Slide no. 22. Mobile connections: China will drive the growth in LTE, although the number of 3G connections will continue to increase 23. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone take-up varies by country, but will account for 52.4% of handsets in the region by Mobile ARPU: The rate of decline of mobile ARPU will slow down because increased spend on data will partially offset the decline in voice and SMS 25. Fixed services: Fibre broadband connections will drive growth and mobile connections will continue to replace fixed voice 26. Fixed broadband: Penetration is low and growing in all markets, particularly Indonesia 27. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data will drive revenue growth and fixed broadband will increase at slightly above the overall market rate 28. Service revenue: Distribution of telecoms service revenue will remain largely constant during Revenue mix: Mobile s share of total service revenue will increase during the next 6 years in every country except Indonesia 30. Individual country forecasts 31. Bangladesh: Solid growth is expected in mobile broadband revenue, but growth in mobile voice revenue will subside 32. Bangladesh: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 33. Bangladesh mobile: Rising mobile penetration is expected and operators are trying to curb the mobile ARPU decline

4 4 Contents Slide no. 34. Bangladesh fixed: Penetration of fixed broadband will continue to be low because consumers prefer mobile broadband 35. China: Telecoms revenue growth will continue to be driven by handset data spend, as fixed voice faces increased pressure 36. China: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 37. China mobile: The launch of 4G will continue to drive growth, increasing handset data spend and stabilising ARPU 38. China fixed: Voice continues to be under pressure from increasing mobile penetration, while broadband growth slowed 39. India: Service revenue growth slowed in 2013, because of a sharp decline in mobile voice revenue growth, and this will persist 40. India: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 41. India mobile: Mobile penetration will continue to increase, as will smartphone adoption, although 4G will not make any impact 42. India fixed: Broadband penetration growth halted in 2013, but is expected to resume in 2015, while voice continues to decline 43. Indonesia: Telecoms retail revenue growth continues across all segments apart from mobile voice and fixed voice 44. Indonesia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 45. Indonesia mobile: Penetration will continue to grow as operators push and promote affordable mobile devices and services 46. Indonesia fixed: Telkom s ambitious plans for extensive fibre roll-out are expected to boost fixed broadband adoption in the country Slide no. 47. Malaysia: Total telecoms service revenue growth will flatten out before 2019 as the market approaches maturity and saturation 48. Malaysia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 49. Malaysia mobile: LTE adoption is expected to rise as operators boost coverage and seed the market with 4G handsets 50. Malaysia fixed: Fibre will be the major driver of fixed broadband growth and will boost IPTV adoption 51. Pakistan: Handset data revenue will drive growth since 3G services were launched in May 2014, while voice revenue will stagnate 52. Pakistan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 53. Pakistan mobile: The market has significant room for growth, although increased competition for 3G will drive down ARPU 54. Pakistan fixed: Service penetration is low, but voice connections are declining and broadband growth is slowing 55. Thailand: Almost all telecoms market areas will grow during , particularly mobile data services and fixed broadband 56. Thailand: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 57. Thailand mobile: High mobile penetration will continue to grow further propelled by rising smartphone take-up and 3G adoption 58. Thailand fixed: DSL connections will continue to increase but growth will be mostly driven by fibre broadband 59. Vietnam: Service revenue decreased significantly in 2013 because of a decline in mobile voice, but is expected to stabilise in 2015

5 5 Contents Slide no. 60. Vietnam: Key trends, drivers and assumptions 61. Vietnam mobile: Growth in mobile connections slowed in 2013 as operators increased 3G prices and SIM restrictions were imposed 62. Vietnam fixed: Fibre broadband connections will provide limited growth while voice connections are declining slowly 63. About the authors and Analysys Mason 64. About the authors 65. About Analysys Mason 66. Research from Analysys Mason 67. Consulting from Analysys Mason

6 6 List of figures Figure 1: About this report Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue ( ) and market size by total retail revenue (2019), by country, emerging Asia Pacific Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, emerging Asia Pacific, 2013 and 2018 Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, emerging Asia Pacific Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, emerging Asia Pacific Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2019 Figure 9: Metrics for the eight countries modelled individually in emerging Asia Pacific, 2013 Figure 10: Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G s share of connections, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE s share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia Pacific, 2013 and 2019 Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia Pacific, Figure 20: Service revenue by country, emerging Asia Pacific, 2013 Figure 21: Service revenue by country, emerging Asia Pacific, 2019 Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, emerging Asia Pacific, 2013 and 2019 Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Bangladesh, Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Bangladesh,

7 7 List of figures Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, Bangladesh, Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Bangladesh Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Bangladesh, Figure 28: ARPU rates by type, Bangladesh, Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Bangladesh, Figure 30: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Bangladesh, Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, Figure 34: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, China Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, China, Figure 36: ARPU rates by type, China, Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, Figure 38: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, China, Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), India, Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, India, Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, India, Figure 42: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, India Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, India, Figure 44: ARPU rates by type, India, Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, India, Figure 46: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, India, Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Indonesia Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Indonesia, Figure 52: ARPU rates by type, Indonesia, Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, Figure 54: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Indonesia, Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, Figure 58: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Malaysia Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Malaysia, Figure 60: ARPU rates by type, Malaysia, Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia,

8 8 List of figures Figure 62: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Malaysia, Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Pakistan, Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Pakistan, Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Pakistan, Figure 66: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Pakistan Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Pakistan, Figure 68: ARPU rates by type, Pakistan, Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Pakistan, Figure 70: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Pakistan, Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, Figure 74: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Thailand Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Thailand, Figure 76: ARPU rates by type, Thailand, Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, Figure 78: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Thailand, Figure 79: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, Figure 81: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, Figure 82: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Vietnam Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Vietnam, Figure 84: ARPU rates by type, Vietnam, Figure 85: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, Figure 86: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Vietnam,

9 18 Geographical coverage: Our forecasts include a detailed breakdown of Vietnam for the first time Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2019 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 1 Pakistan China % % India % Vietnam % Thailand Mobile connections by technology generation G 3G 4G Year of LTE launch Key Countries modelled individually Fixed broadband household penetration 74% Countries modelled as part of the region % Bangladesh Malaysia Indonesia % % % 1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of the emerging Asia Pacific region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude M2M connections. Fixed broadband household penetration is calculated as total fixed broadband connections (residential and business) divided by the number of households.

10 Percentage of the population Emerging Asia Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts Mobile penetration: Penetration is at only 76.4% despite significant multiple-sim ownership and it will continue to increase Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), emerging Asia Pacific, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% EMAP will have just over 4 billion mobile connections in Mobile SIM penetration is expected to increase from 76.4% in 2013 to 101.4% in Unlike the telecoms markets in developed Asia Pacific (DVAP), EMAP is dominated by prepaid subscriptions. Contract SIMs accounted for only 16.5% of handset connections in 2013, and this will remain relatively constant till 2019 (16.7%). Consumers in EMAP countries are extremely price-sensitive, and competition among operators often leads to price wars and frequent promotions. This has led to a high degree of multiple-sim ownership and churn in the region. Mobile take-up increased dramatically in Thailand in 2013 thanks to the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission s (NBTC s) new regulation to extend prepaid validity. Mobile penetration is already high in Thailand, and we expect the growth in 2013 to be an anomaly, so have forecast slower growth in the coming years. The expiry of licences and changing market structure should encourage operators to switch off a significant number of dormant SIMs. Bangladesh India Malaysia Thailand Emerging Asia Pacific China Indonesia Pakistan Vietnam Vietnam has a high rate of multiple-sim ownership. The sharp decline in the number of SIMs in 2013 is because the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) introduced several measures to limit the number of SIMs per owner, including a VND (USD1.25) SIM registration fee in January 2013.

11 63 Executive summary Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison Individual country forecasts About the authors and Analysys Mason

12 64 About the authors Satvik Singhania (Research Analyst) joined Analysys Mason in 2012 as a Research Analyst in the Singapore office and works on our Asia Pacific research programme. He has taken part in and led a number of key research projects as well as been involved in examining and forecasting the overall size of the telecoms market in developed and developing Asia Pacific and producing market reports for various Asian countries. Before joining Analysys Mason, Satvik was a strategy and risk management consultant at Dragonfly, where he oversaw a number of projects in alternative energy investments for an oil major. Satvik has a degree in Economics and Finance from the Singapore Management University. Nipun Jaiswal (Analyst) is an analyst in Analysys Mason s Singapore office. He specialises in the Asia Pacific telecoms, media and related technologies markets. He is an expert in tracking, analysing and forecasting telecoms market data, and in providing corporate strategy, competitive analysis, market insights and market intelligence. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Nipun was an industry analyst in Frost & Sullivan's ICT research and growth consulting team for Asia Pacific, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nipun has a strong technical background, having worked extensively on mobile network management solutions in the OSS domain for a Tier 1 telecoms equipment vendor based in Europe and India. Nipun holds an MBA in global business from the S P Jain School of Global Management (Singapore and Dubai) and a degree in Computer Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth University (India). Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Asia Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. His research covers the entire Asia Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 14 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key issues in the region in detail. Tom has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting, regulatory issues, cost modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His experience includes working as a researcher and consultant in multiple countries across four continents for clients throughout the value chain. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics from the University of Nottingham and the University of Durham.

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