Decision Making and Sustainable Development Unit 2: 环境决策与可持续发展

Transcription

1 Decision Making and Sustainable Development Unit 2: 环境决策与可持续发展

2 Risk 风险 Useful Words and Expressions Probability 可能性 ( 概率上的 ) Possibility 可能性 ( 一般意义上的 ) Benefit 效益 Assessment 评价 Exposure 暴露 Pollutant 污染物 Toxin 毒素 Priority 优先 Regulatory 规则的 Monitor 监测 ( 动词 )

3 Useful Words and Expressions Threshold 阈值 Perception 感觉 感受 Consumption 消耗 消费 Supply 供应 供给 Demand 需求 Emission 发出 发射 Subsidy 补助 补贴 ( 来自政府的 ) Sustainable 可持续的 Renewable 可更新的 Adaptable 可采用的 Institutional 制度的

4 Measuring Risk Two primary factors in most decisions: Risk: how likely is it that something will happen? Cost: what is the cost of this course of action? Risk analysis involves defining a mathematical probability relating the likelihood of an event (adverse effect). Probability and Possibility Probability: quantitative how likely Possibility: qualitative if or not

5 Risk Analysis and Decision Making Decision-Making Process: The assessment, cost, and consequences of risks are all important to the decision-making process.

6 Risk Assessment Environmental risk assessment Environmental risk assessment uses facts and assumptions to estimate probability of harm to human health or the environment resulting from exposure to pollutants, toxins, or management decisions. Estimates typically based on broad assumptions to ensure a lack of complete knowledge does not result in an underestimation of risk.

7 Risk Assessment Over the past decade, the largest impact has come in practices involving carcinogens. Risk assessment is also being used to help set regulating priorities and supporting regulatory action.

8 高频度鲑鱼食用导致高致癌率 致癌率随食用频度降低 致癌率随食用频度降低 Cancer Risk and Fish F Consumption: A study by the national Wildlife Federation provides estimates for cancer risks associated with the consumption of sport fish.

9 Risk Management Risk Management: A decision-making process that includes: Assigning priorities to different risks. Determining necessary funding to reduce risks to an acceptable level. Deciding where greatest benefit will be realized from limited funds. Determining acceptable level of risk. Planning, enforcement, and monitoring.

10 Risk Management Politics of risk management frequently focus on adequacy of supporting scientific evidence. Defining the extent of the problem helps determine the rest of the management process. Below a certain risk threshold, action may be unnecessary.

11 True and Perceived Risks People often overestimate frequency and seriousness of sensational causes of death, and underestimate risks from familiar causes. Elimination of all risk is impossible. An on-going dilemma is: Should the government spend the most money on areas with the greatest impact, or areas where the most people are upset?

12 True and Perceived Risks Ultimate Question: What degree of risk is acceptable? Negligible Risk Point of no significant health or environmental risk. Public generally perceives involuntary risks as greater than voluntary risks, and newer technologies as greater risks than more familiar technologies.

13 Risks of Death (Deaths per million hours of exposure) Mountain Climbing 40,000 Cigarette Smoking 3,000 Swimming 2,560 Air Travel 500 Struck by Lightning 100 Living near nuclear power plant 0.5

14 Perception of Risk: Professional regulators and the public do not always agree on what risks are.

15 Economics and the Environment Environmental problems are primarily economic problems. Economics deals with resource allocation. Economic Concepts Economic good/service is anything defined as scarce. Resource is anything that contributes to making desired goods and services available. Supply is the amount of the good/service available for purchase/consumption.

16 Economic Concepts Demand is the amount of the good/service consumers are willing to buy at various prices. Supply / Demand curve Price reflects strength of demand for and availability of the commodity. Demand > Supply Price Raises Demand < Supply Price Lowers

17 Factors That Determine Supply: The supply of a good or service depends on the several factors shown here. Availability of raw materials Cost of obtaining processing Degree of completion Recycling Societal costs

18 Supply and Demand (a) As a result of increased interest in recycling, the supply of recycled newspapers grew substantially between 1970 and The demand changed very litter; therefore, the price in 1993 was extremely low. (b) Beginning in 1994, the demand for recycled newspaper and cardboard increased, thus the price rose significantly. Prices were more stable through 2000.

19 Market-Based Instruments (MBIs) Provide incentive for people and companies to reduce pollution by imposing costs on pollution-causing activities. Five basic categories: Information Programs - Make clear the personal interests in pollution reduction. Tradable Emissions Permits - Give companies the right to emit specified amounts of pollutants.

20 Market-Based Instruments (MBIs) Emission Fees, Taxes, Charges - Make damaging activities more expensive. Performance Bond / Deposit-Refund Place surcharge on price of products that is refunded upon return. Subsidies - Monetary incentives designed to reduce product costs. Determine whether a policy generates more social costs than social benefits.

21 Extended Product Responsibility (EPR) Relies on implementation of life cycle analysis. Identify opportunities to prevent pollution and reduce resource and energy use in each stage of the product chain. Changes in product design and process technology.

22 上游 : 概念 + 原材料供应 + 生产加工 中游 : 销售 + 使用 The Life Cycle of a Typical Product 下游 :(: 废品 ) 收集 + 处理 + 最终处置

23 Cost-Benefit Analysis Determine whether a policy generates more social costs than social benefits. Four steps: Identify the project. Determination of all impacts. Determination of the value of impacts. Calculation of net benefit.

24 Example: Costs and Benefits of Improving Air Quality 与成本相关的内容 : (1) 设备安装与维护 (2) 技术设计 (3) 能源消耗 (4) 人员培训 (5) 监测 与效益相关的内容 : (1) 死亡与疾病率降低 (2) 呼吸问题减少 (3) 动植物危害减少 (4) 清洁费用降低 (5) 大气质量提高 (6) 眼刺激减少 (7) 异嗅问题减少

25 Example: Costs and Benefits of Improving Air Quality 经济成本与效益分析 环境成本与效益分析 评价比较 决策

26 Concerns with Cost-Benefit Analysis Not everything has an economical value. Objects or resources devoid of economic value may only survive if and when they become economic.

27 Sustainable Development Sustainable chart 可承受性 可持续性 公平性 可行性

28 Sustainable Development Sustainable Development: meets present needs without compromising ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Different school of thoughts Economic growth is essential to finance pollution prevention and environmental quality investments necessary to prevent pollution. Advocates rely on science and technological advances.

29 Economics and Sustainable Development Economic and environmental well-being are mutually reinforcing, and must be simultaneously pursued. Bottom Line: Sustainable growth and sustainable-use are not interchangeable terms. Major obstacle to sustainable development in many countries is a social structure that gives majority of wealth to a tiny minority of the population.

30 Economics and Sustainable Development Five Characteristics That Defines Sustainability: Renewability use of renewable resources Substitution use renewable resources instead of nonrenewable resources Interdependence a system cannot be sustainable unless the larger system which it belongs to is also sustainable Adaptability a sustainable community can absorb shocks and can adapt to take advantage of new opportunities Institutional commitment a sustainable community adopts laws and political processes that mandate sustainability

31 External Costs External costs are expenses related to a product that are borne by someone other than the individuals using the resource. Pollution-prevention costs incurred to prevent pollution can often be factored into life-cycle analysis.

32 External Costs Pollution costs can be broken down into two major categories: Private or public expenditures to avoid pollution damage once pollution has occurred. Increased health costs and loss of use of public resources because of pollution.

33 External Costs

34 Common Property Resource Problems Common (public) ownership essentially means no owner. Strong tendency to overexploit and misuse the resource. Common ownership makes it virtually cost-free for anybody to cause pollution. Cattle grazing on western public rangelands.

35 Common Property Resource Problems

36 Economic Decision Making and the Biophysical World For most natural scientists, many environmental problems are symptoms of an imbalance between socioeconomic system and natural world. Human input is larger than ever. Recognition of interdependence in natural world is foreign to market-view. Space and place is crucial in ecology, but not necessarily crucial in economics.

37 Economics Environment and Developing Nations Majority of biological diversity found in developing world, and threatened by exploitation and development. Must borrow money from developed nations to fund development. Debt for Nature Exchanges Allow debt to be bought at discount but redeemed at a premium for use in conservation and sustainable development projects.

38 Tragedy of the Commons United States and other industrialized nations consume far more than their share of total world resource harvest each year. Much imported from less developed nations.

39 Summary Risk assessment is the use of facts and assumptions to estimate the probability of harm to human health or the environment. People frequently overestimate new and unfamiliar risks but underestimate familiar ones. Environmental problems can be viewed as economic problems and economic policies and concepts play important roles in environmental decision making. Cost-benefit analysis is an important economic tool which concerns with whether a policy generates more social benefits than social costs.

40 Summary Sustainable development is a newer school of economic thought which is defined as actions that address the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Costs of pollution control include pollutionprevention costs and pollution costs which are external costs imposed on society. There is a strong tendency to overexploit and misuse the resource when everyone shares ownership of a resource. This is The Tragedy of the Commons. The approach of Debt-for-nature exchange is gaining popularity.

41 Carcinogens Key Terms cancer-causing chemicals Cost-benefit analysis analysis to determine whether a policy generates more social costs than social benefits Demand the amount of a product that consumers are willing and able to buy External costs costs to society for waste disposal, pollution and health due to environmental problems

42 Key Terms Negligible risk risk at a point there is really no significant health or environmental impact Pollution costs expenditures to avoid pollution damage once pollution has already occurred and the increased health costs and loss of the use of public resources because of pollution Pollution-prevention costs costs incurred to prevent the pollution that would otherwise result from some production or consumption activity Probability a mathematic statement about how likely it is that something will happen

43 Key Terms Resources anything that contributes to making desired goods and services available for consumption Risk assessment Risk assessment the use of facts and assumptions to estimate the probability of harm to human health or the environment Risk management Risk management a decision-making process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action Subsidy a gift from government to a private enterprise that is considered important to the public interest Subsidy

44 Review Questions How is risk assessment used in environmental decision making? What are some of the concerns about the use of cost-benefit analysis in environmental decision making? What are some examples of environmental external costs? Define what is meant by pollution-prevention costs. Describe the concept of debt-for-nature.

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