Changing farming practices will impact farm input use

Transcription

1 Changing farming practices will impact farm input use Global Grain South America Dirk Jan Kennes Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory Rabobank 1

2 Food and Agri Research s network, sector coverage and research Rabobank has over 80 research professionals across the globe Output in the form of Notes, Reports and World maps London Utrecht (Global HQ) Mexico City Chicago St. Louis New York New Delhi Mumbai Singapore Jakarta Dar Es Salaam Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong São Paulo Melbourne Sydney Santiago Buenos Aires Christchurch Food, Beverage and Agri: all sectors are covered Animal Protein Beverages F&A Supply Chain Dairy Farm Inputs Fruit, Veg & Flowers Grains & Oilseeds Sugar, Cotton, Coffee & Cocoa Value Added Processing 29

3 I Subdued commodity prices bring bearish tones to fertiliser complex

4 Subdued commodity prices cap price upside Record large harvests Rising stocks will limit price volatility Brazilian weather risk continues to support coffee and sugar prices CBOT Corn expected to stay in a sideways pattern until new information regarding the crop is available Bearish outlook for soybeans is maintained Upside for wheat prices is limited, as other grains pressure the complex Rabobank ACMR outlook August 4

5 Fertiliser Quarterly Outlook Rabobank Q Moving away from floor prices-but upside is limited Supply reductions Subdued commodity prices Seasonal demand Reluctance to build up stocks 5

6 Fertiliser Quarterly Outlook Rabobank Q Moving away from floor prices-but upside is limited Urea Phosphates Potash Regional demand Tight supply Lower than expected Chinese export availability Indian demand Tighter supply from China Brazil and Morocco cap price increases Temporary price increases in North America and Europe Limited impact in rest of the world 6

7 II Changing farming practices impact input use on the long term

8 Long term growth trend in food drives changing farming practices I Producing more on a shrinking land base Food demand will increase with +70% by 2050 whilst with the same resources Arable land per capita will decrease with c. 25% From 0.24 ha/capita in 2012 to 0.18 ha/capita in 2050 II Changing farming practices III Farmers spending more on data management Long-term growth trends Technological innovation creates sustainable value Services share in farmers wallet will increase 819

9 Big Data facilitates privatisation of farm extension services Soil, water & climate conditions Seeds, fertiliser & CPC Farmer expertise Algorithm that runs machinery Yield 9

10 Large corporates create new business models based on Big Data Two ways to increase yields 1 Increase genetic potential by breeding Genetic potential R&D expenditures highest in seeds Monsanto (seeds) 14.7% 2 Increase yield by improving agronomic practises Realised yield Syngenta (agro chemicals) Deere (machinery) 4.0% 6.1% Yara (fertiliser) 0.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% R&D in % of sales 10

11 Precision ag smart ag Developing new mechanics and bringing them to perfection The mechanised farm Precision ag Precision mechanics with IT Automation, robots, auto steer with GPS From here it gets complex, agronomic knowledge and research need to be involved Making machines smart Variable rate application, expert systems, artificial intelligence, algorithms Smart ag Providing integrated farm solutions Simultaneous optimisation of inputs, fine-tuning of inputs Chain optimisation Fine-tuning the farm to the value chain and vice versa 11

12 Asia and South America to follow in EU s footsteps Area impact Crop mix impact Application rate impact South America Asia South America Asia EU-27 North America EU-27 North America South America Asia EU-27 North America = Area: area dedicated to crops that are fertilised 2. Crop mix factor: average number of kg of nutrients per ha for actual crop mix with application rates in base year 3. Application rate: average number of kg of nutrients applied per ha for a specific crop 12

13 Three areas to improve Chinese fertiliser-to-pork supply chain Source: CRU, Rabobank

14 Input optimisation has significant impact Source: Rabobank 14 14

15 III Farmer s increased cost-consciousness to impact input use on the medium term

16 Farmer margins are under pressure globally US Midwest USD/ha 2,500 Mato Grosso Brazil BRL/ha 4,000 2,000 1,500 1, ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,200 1, Fertiliser Seed Crop protection Fuel costs Land rent Gross margin 1, e 2015f Fertiliser Seed Crop protection Fuel costs Land rent Gross margin Rabobank Farmer Margin Outlook 2014 Gross margin US Midwest average 16

17 Short term growth trend will catalyse a shift towards generic agrochemicals Glyphosate resistance More generic molecules in herbicides due to glyphosate resistance Short term growth trend Loosening G&O S&D balance Ethanol blend walls Increasing stocks Saturation rates short-cut productivity growth (hybrid seeds, fertiliser) Downwards pressure on G&O prices Declining spending power of farmers Shift to generic agrochemicals Market grew from 36% of the total agchem market in 2004 to c. 55% at present Intensified competition for the farmers wallet will also increase competition amongst farm input companies 17 20

18 Conclusion Relative high agricultural commodity prices incentivise farmers towards sustainable intensification Changing farming best-practices Integrated approach regarding farm inputs necessary Potential depressed farm earnings in coming 3 years might delay the penetration of these innovative farming practices Farmers instant response to improve yields through increased fertilizer spending not sustainable longer term Balanced crop nutrition will gain importance Improved application technology Increased regulation (e.g. EU legislation) Beyond 2020 much lower growth rates for fertilizers likely Potential bearish crop environment likely to slow adaptation of novel productivity enhancing solutions Potential depressed farm earnings in coming 3 years might delay the penetration of these innovative farming practices to materialize beyond 2020 Relative spending of farmers likely to change less on equipment and proprietary technology 18