March Economic Report. Month ending March 31, McGladrey LLP. All Rights Reserved McGladrey LLP. All Rights Reserved.
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1 March Economic Report Month ending March 31, 2015
2 MARKET DASHBOARD Last Price Change % Chg. YTD % Last Price Change % Chg. YTD % S&P 500 2, % 1.6% Russell Global EM 3, % 7.4% Dow Industrials 18, % 0.8% 10-Year US Treas bps NM NM Nasdaq 4, % 5.0% DJ UBS Comm. Idx % -5.0% Russell , % 4.5% Gold $1, $ % 1.8% Euro Stoxx % 20.2% Crude Oil $51.72 $ % -7.8% Shanghai Composite 4, % 24.7% Dollar % 10.3% Russell Global 1, % 4.5% VIX % -31.8% ; % change is based on price. S&P 500 : Trailing 180 Days /23 10/7 10/21 11/4 11/18 12/2 12/16 12/30 1/13 1/27 2/10 2/24 3/10 L S One Week YTD Value Growth Value Growth 1.08% 1.24% 1.38% -1.74% 1.14% 3.99% 0.27% 0.89% 1.44% 2.41% 4.58% 6.60% -0.42% 0.27% 0.94% 1.61% 4.52% 7.40% Sector Performance: S&P/Global Industry Classification Sectors (GICS) % Wgt in S&P 500 Week % Chg. YTD % Chg. Consumer Discretionary % 5.9% Consumer Staples % 1.9% Energy % -0.7% Financials % -2.0% Health Care % 7.2% Industrials % -0.6% Information Technology % 1.1% Materials % 1.9% Telecom Services % 1.0% Utilities % -6.2% VIX : Trailing 180 Days 10 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar Wealth Growth of $1: Trailing 24 Months Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 S&P 500 Dow Industrials Small Cap EAFE Emerging Mkts. 1
3 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price -Trailing 12 Mos Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS A Macro View March Monthly Recap Domestic equity markets were generally lower in March, continuing the up-and-down performance that has been characteristic so far in Markets assimilated economic data that, while still trending higher, has slowed somewhat recently. The government s third estimate of fourth quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at +2.2%, the same as the prior estimate, but below the rate of the third quarter. Investors also continue to analyze the Federal Reserve s (Fed) likely next move with respect to interest rates. The Fed is weighing how soon to begin to normalize interest rates, as well as when to begin to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Inflation is not yet an issue, but many analysts believe the Fed will begin to hike rates sometime in the fall. Within this context, stocks on balance generated modest losses in March. The S&P 500 declined -1.6% for the month, reducing its year-to-date return to The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) retreated -1.9% for the month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gave up -1.2% in March. The Russell 2000 of small cap stocks materially outperformed the Russell 1000 of large cap stocks, with returns of +1.7% and -1.3%, respectively. Growth stocks continued their strong performance relative to value stocks during the month. In terms of sector performance, the top performers in the month were health care, consumer discretionary and financials, with returns of +0.9%, -0.5% and -0.6%, respectively. Materials and telecom services were the poorest performers, with returns of -4.7% and -3.7%, respectively. Commodities once again dropped sharply, shedding -5.4% for the month, and the asset class is now down -27% over the past year. International equity markets overall had a difficult month as well. Economic growth remains lackluster, and investors are wondering whether the European Central Bank s (ECB) recently announced asset purchase program will have the intended effects. The MSCI World ex-u.s. fell -1.6% for the month, reducing its gain for the year to +4.0%. Emerging markets also declined in March, as moderating world growth kept those markets in check. The MSCI Emerging Markets eased by -1.4% for the month, and the MSCI EAFE, which measures developed markets performance, was also down -1.4%. Regionally, China was the best performer on a relative basis, gaining +2.4%. Latin America and Europe were among the poorest relative performers, with results of -7.5% and -2.6%, respectively. Fixed-income markets were modestly higher in March, coinciding with the decline in equities, and speculation as to when the Fed would begin to raise interest rates. Within this environment, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the month at 1.93%, down seven basis points from the 2.00% level of February 28th. Broad-based fixed-income indices fared decently during March, with the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond advancing +0.5% for the month. Global fixed-income markets remained mired in a downward trend, as the Barclays Global Aggregate ex-u.s. fell -2.9% for the month. Intermediate-term corporate bonds reversed course from the prior month, as the Barclays U.S. Corporate 5-10 Year advanced by +0.4%. The Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield eased, retreating by -0.6%. Municipals returned to generating positive performance, gaining +0.3% for the month. 2
4 % % % % EUROZONE SELECTED EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN YIELD PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % Germany 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM France 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Greece 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Ireland 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Italy 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Portugal 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Spain 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Netherlands 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Belgium 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM U.K. 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Basis points (bps) 0.45 Germany 10-Year Government Bond Yield 1.8 Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield /26 3/12 3/26 4/ /21 2/4 2/18 3/4 3/18 4/1 1.5 Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield 13.0 Greece 10-Year Government Bond Yield /26 3/12 3/26 4/ /21 2/4 2/18 3/4 3/18 4/1 3
5 EQUITIES WORLD MARKET PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % S&P 500 2, % 1.57% Swiss Market 9, % 4.56% Dow Industrials 18, % 0.76% CAC 40 (France) 5, % 21.91% Nasdaq Composite 4, % 5.04% DAX (Germany) 12, % 24.08% Russell Global 1, % 4.5% Irish Overall 6, % 19.39% Russell Global EM 3, % 7.4% Nikkei , % 14.15% S&P/TSX (Canada) 15, % 4.74% Hang Seng 27, % 14.27% Mexico IPC 44, % 4.10% Shanghai Composite 4, % 24.72% Brazil Bovespa 54, % 7.59% Kospi (S. Korea) 2, % 8.53% Euro Stoxx % 20.20% Taiwan Taiex 9, % 3.11% FTSE 100 7, % 6.84% Tel Aviv 25 1, % 12.69% IBEX 35 (Spain) 11, % 14.16% MICEX (Russia) 1, % 19.40% ; % change is based on price. Dow Jones Industrial Average -Trailing 90 Days 18,400 18,200 18,000 17,800 17,600 17,400 17,200 17,000 16,800 16,600 1/9 1/23 2/6 2/20 3/6 3/20 4/3 Nasdaq Composite-Trailing 90 Days 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 1/9 1/23 2/6 2/20 3/6 3/20 4/3 4,500 Shanghai Composite -Trailing 90 Days 420 Euro Stoxx -Trailing 90 Days 4, , , , ,000 1/9 1/23 2/6 2/20 3/6 3/20 4/ /9 1/23 2/6 2/20 3/6 3/20 4/3 4
6 Yield % INTEREST RATES SELECTED INTEREST RATES Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % 2-Yr. U.S. Treasury 0.55% -1 bps NM NM Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00 NM NM 5-Yr. U.S. Treasury 1.40% 5 bps NM NM Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00 NM NM 10-Yr. U.S. Treasury 1.95% 3 bps NM NM Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00 NM NM 30-Yr. U.S. Treasury 2.58% 7 bps NM NM LIBOR (3 Mo.) 0.27% 0 bps NM NM German 10-Yr. Govt. 0.16% 3 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 Muni 3.68% 2 bps NM NM France 10-Yr. 0.45% 4 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 G.O. 3.49% NA NM NM Italy 10-Yr. 1.30% 0 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 Rev. 4.18% NA NM NM Fed 5-Yr Fwd BE Inf. 1.87% -1 bps NM NM YIELD CURVES 4.00 US Treasury Actives Curve US Treasury Actives Curve USD US Industrial (BB) BFV Cur USD Composite (BBB) BFV Curve M 1Y 3Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y 10-Year Treasury Yield - Trailing 180 Days BBB/Baa- 10-Yr Treas. Spread Rising Line = Risk Aversion
7 CURRENCIES SELECTED CURRENCY PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % Dollar % 9.57% Chinese Yuan % -0.06% Euro % % Swiss Franc % 1.97% Japanese Yen % -0.60% New Zealand Dollar % -2.71% British Pound % -5.51% Brazilian Real % % Canadian Dollar % -7.63% Mexican Peso % -2.20% 105 U.S. Dollar - Trailing Six Months 1.40 Euro - U.S. Dollars per Euro Chinese yuan - yuan per U.S. Dollar Japanese yen - Yen per U.S. Dollar
8 $ per bushel $ per barrel $ per ounce COMMODITIES SELECTED COMMODITY MARKET PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % DJ UBS Comm. Idx % -5.03% Platinum Spot $1, $ % -4.07% Rogers Int. Comm. Idx % -7.22% Corn % -6.59% Crude Oil $51.70 $ % -7.81% Wheat % % Natural Gas $2.51 -$ % % Soybeans % -7.40% Gasoline ($/Gal.) $2.40 $ % 7.10% Sugar % % Heating Oil % -4.11% Orange Juice % % Gold Spot $1, $ % 1.76% Aluminum 1, % -4.86% Silver Spot $ $ % 3.32% Copper 5, % -4.84% ; % change is based on price. Crude Oil - Light Crude ($ per barrel) Gold - Spot gold price ($ per ounce) 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 Copper 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 10/13 11/12 12/12 1/11 2/10 3/12 Corn - Active Contract
9 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS SELECTED ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT INDEX PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % HFRX Global Hedge Fund % 2.77% HFRX Distressed % 0.61% HFRX Equity Market Neutral % 1.24% HFRX Merger Arbitrage % 2.83% HFRX Equity Hedge % 3.37% HFRX Convertible Arbitrage % 1.85% HFRX Event-Driven % 2.13% HFRX Macro CTA % 3.79% HFRX Absolute Return % 2.09% IQ Fixed Income Beta Arb % 1.03% ; % change is based on price. HFRX Global Hedge Fund - Trailing 90 Days 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1/12 1/26 2/9 2/23 3/9 3/23 4/6 HFRX Equity Hedge - Trailing 90 Days 1,230 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 1,150 1,140 1/12 1/26 2/9 2/23 3/9 3/23 4/6 1,010 HFRX Equity Market Neutral - Trailing 90 Days 1,410 IQ Fixed Income Beta Arb - Trailing 90 Days 1,005 1,405 1,000 1, , , , , , , /12 1/26 2/9 2/23 3/9 3/23 4/6 1,365 1/12 1/26 2/9 2/23 3/9 3/23 4/6 8
10 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION 3.50 S&P 500/MSCI EAFE - Trailing 180 Days 6.00 S&P 500/MSCI EM - Trailing 180 Days MSCI EAFE/MSCI EM - Trailing 180 Days Large Cap/Small Cap - Trailing 180 Days Growth/Value - Trailing 180 Days
11 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION (cont d.) Info Tech/S&P Trailing 180 Days 1.88 Inv. Grade Bonds/Int. Govt. Bonds - Trailing 180 Days High Yield Bonds/Int. Govt. Bonds - Trailing 180 Days High Yield/Inv. Grade Bonds - Trailing 180 Days
12 This report is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The performance numbers displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. The indices discussed are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, transaction costs or other expenses associated with investable products. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. This information is not meant as a guide to investing, or as a source of specific investment recommendations, and McGladrey Wealth Management LLC makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client s investment objectives. The information is general in nature and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, legal or tax advice. In addition, the information is subject to change and, although based upon the information that McGladrey Wealth Management LLC believes to be reliable, is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. McGladrey Wealth Management LLC makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by its use and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or reliance on, the information. McGladrey LLP Tax and accounting services are provided by McGladrey LLP, a registered CPA firm. Investment advisory, financial planning and other wealth management services are provided by McGladrey Wealth Management LLC, an SEC-registered investment advisor. McGladrey LLP is an Iowa limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of RSM International, a global network of independent accounting, tax and consulting firms. The member firms of RSM International collaborate to provide services to global clients, but are separate and distinct legal entities that cannot obligate each other. Each member firm is responsible only for its own acts and omissions, and not those of any other party. McGladrey, the McGladrey logo, the McGladrey Classic logo, The power of being understood, Power comes from being understood, and Experience the power of being understood are registered trademarks of McGladrey LLP.
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