Jan 11, 2016 with data as of Jan 8

Transcription

1 *INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Citibank Wealth Management Jan 11, 2016 with data as of Jan 8 Weekly Citi analysts forecasts Market Overview 02 Equity 03 Bond & Commodities 04 Weekly Commentary Hong Kong Stocks Update & Sector Outlook Equity Index 07 Commodities 08 Foreign Exchange 09

2 Weekly Market Overview Chart 1: Weekly Market Performance S&P 500 Index STOXX Europe 600 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Index HSCEI Shanghai Comp. US Gov't Bond Index ^ World IG Corp Bond Index ^ US HY Bond Index ^ US Dollar Index COMEX Gold Futures WTI Crude Oil Futures ^Reference Indices: Citigroup Bond Indices Series Market Overview -6.0% -6.7% -7.0% -6.7% -8.4% -10.0% -10.5% -0.3% -0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 3.6% China s CSI 300 Index plunged 10% last week, as declines in the yuan rattled investor confidence. Global risky assets were also dragged down by concerns over RMB depreciation. For the week, global equities fell 6%, while U.S. and European stocks were down 6% and 6.7% respectively. WTI crude oil plunged 10.5%. Key Economic Releases / Events over the Week China: RMB depreciation: The PBOC revised up the USD/CNY reference rate from to through Thursday. Concern over the PBOC to speed up currency depreciation prompted USD/CNY and USD/CNH to weaken rapidly. On Friday, the PBOC lowered the reference rate to and RMB pared some losses afterwards. Equity market slump: Last week, China market saw daily declineofmorethan7%,whichtriggeredthecircuitbreaker twice in 4 days. China s market circuit breakers halt exchanges for 15 minutes after a 5% drop in the CSI 300 and for the rest of the day after a 7% retreat. Suspension of Circuit Breaker: On Thur, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced to suspend Stock Circuit Breaker. The CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index rebounded last Fri. The U.S: Nonfarm payroll: The U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 292,000 in Dec 2015 (market expectation 200,000) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. Crude oil: Renewed weakness: WTI and Brent crude futures fell more than 10% to below US$34 a barrel, after U.S. gasoline inventories surged the most in 22 years and crude supplies in the U.S. climbed to an all-time high. 2

3 Investment Strategy amid RMB depreciation and market volatility The Investment Strategy in 2016 Turn Cautious: Lower the overweight positions in equities. Beware of High-Yield (HY) bond correction. On China HY, RMB depreciation may mean a heavier burden for Key Points companies that had raised USD debts, as the cost of debt repayment could increase along with RMB depreciation. Investors should see China's currency as a market 2016 would see some RMB 3 trillion debt expire in the Chinese driver this year just as oil was in bond market. Default rate may rise amid economic slowdown. It is important to manage portfolio risks and look for On the U.S. HY, energy-related debt remains a serious concern as quality investment opportunities, including European IG oil continued to weaken significantly at the beginning of bonds, European HY and Equity-dividend plays. Look for quality assets: Investor may consider increasing Recent Financial Market Turmoil exposure in quality asset, e.g. investment-grade bonds. It is worth Faster RMB depreciation: By setting a much weaker than expected yuan fixing, the People s Bank of China may be speeding up currency depreciation. noting that global investment grade bonds posted +0.5% returns last week amid the global stock market turmoil. European HY also looks relatively attractive amid European Central Bank easing. RMB to become key market driver: Most global financial markets are weakening significantly. Investors should see For investors who can endure relatively higher volatility, they may consider Equity-dividend plays. China's currency as a market driver this year just as oil was in Chart: MSCI World (Local) vs USD/CNY 520 MSCI World Index (Local) 6.7 Market reaction likely to be negative: Citi analysts would expect global asset markets to react negatively until USDCNY (Right) the size of the RMB depreciation is somewhat clearer To navigate the challenging investment environment of , it is important to manage portfolio risks and take advantage of timely and quality investment opportunities. 01/15 03/15 05/15 07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 3

4 Weekly Equity China stocks: Circuit-breaker mechanism: The circuit-breaker mechanism, per the Chinese regulation body, aims to reduce A-share volatility. Nevertheless, we are of the opinion that it offers little help given A-shares extremely high turnover velocity. Instead, to a certain extent, it may raise short-term liquidity fears if investors are not able to cash in/out in a timely fashion. Impact of RMB depreciation on equity market: RMB depreciation could be negative on equity market 1) PBOC s action may imply economic growth deceleration; 2) Liquidity concerns on capital outflow. During the period of RMB depreciations, A shares are likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks. Depreciation may benefit exporters in RMB terms. But for HK stocks, RMB depreciation hurts corporate earnings in HKD terms. May be too early for bottom fishing: We view it is too early for massive bottom fishing and our end-2016 CSI300 target 3,300. China equities may see more volatility in 2016, and we expect the market to recover in late 2H16 amid a more sustainable lower growth level. Chart 3: Equity Market Performance Equity 8-Jan Close Weekly Change Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD Global / US MSCI AC World Index (Local) % -6.4% -5.5% -7.9% -6.0% S&P 500 Index 1, % -6.9% -4.5% -6.1% -6.0% DJ Industrial Average 16,346-1, % -7.0% -4.1% -6.7% -6.2% Russell 2000 Index 1, % -9.8% -10.1% -14.9% -7.9% Europe STOXX Europe % -6.7% -5.6% -8.5% -6.7% FTSE 100 Index 5, % -3.6% -7.3% -8.9% -5.3% DAX Index 9, % -7.7% -1.4% -8.4% -8.3% CAC 40 Index 4, % -7.4% -7.3% -6.6% -6.5% Japan Topix 1, % -7.7% -2.3% -8.5% -6.5% Nikkei ,698-1, % -9.2% -2.4% -10.3% -7.0% Emerging Market MSCI EM Index % -7.0% -12.8% -18.2% -6.8% Asia MSCI Asia ex Japan % -5.9% -8.9% -13.9% -6.3% Shanghai Composite 3, % -8.2% 1.4% -9.1% -10.0% CSI 300 3, % -7.2% 2.0% -8.2% -9.9% Hang Seng Index 20,454-1, % -6.6% -8.5% -13.0% -6.7% HS China Enterprise Index 8, % -8.4% -14.0% -20.4% -8.4% MSCI China Index % -8.8% -11.3% -13.5% -8.1% S&P/ASX 200 4, % -2.3% -4.2% -8.8% -5.8% Taiwan TAIEX Index 7, % -5.4% -6.5% -12.1% -5.3% Kospi Index 1, % -1.6% -5.0% -4.9% -2.2% BSE Sensex 30 Index 24,934-1, % -1.5% -7.1% -9.9% -4.5% Jakarta Composite Index 4, % 1.8% 1.2% -6.7% -1.0% Straits Times Index 2, % -4.3% -6.6% -16.2% -4.6% FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 1, % -0.7% -2.0% -2.3% -2.1% SET Index 1, % -4.8% -10.6% -15.4% -3.4% Latin America Brazil Ibovespa Index 40,612-2, % -8.6% -17.3% -21.6% -6.3% Mexico IPC Index 40,265-2, % -4.7% -8.6% -9.5% -6.3% Emerging Europe Russia RTS Index $ % -5.2% -14.0% -15.9% -2.7% 4

5 Weekly Bond & Commodities Outlook on crude oil: Q looks a good deal more bearish than Q Oversupply remains the main concern - 1) crude oil stocks in developed countries at all time high, 2) Saudi Arabia are cutting prices to gain market shares, 3) Iran aims to increase exports by 500,000 barrels a day after sanctions being lifted, 4) The U.S. ends the 40-year ban on its crude exports. Crude inventories may be pushed up even further. If storage capacity is severely tested, WTI may even need to go to the high US$20s. Outlook on Energy High-Yield debts: The corporate default rate on U.S. energy issuers jumped to 10.2% in the 3Q 2015 from 3.1% a year ago. As well as companies, energy distress impacts national incomes, sovereign credit and currency performance. In the coming year, we expect defaults and losses to be concentrated in the energy sector with significant spillovers to energy-dependent sovereign bonds. On the overall high-yield market, our base case forecast is that default rate may rise from 2.8% in 2015, to 4.75% in Chart 4: Bond and Commodities Performance Fixed Income 8-Jan Close Change (%) Weekly Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month Change YTD Bond Indices Citigroup US Gov't Bond Index % 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% Citigroup WBIG - Corporate Index % -0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Citigroup High Yield Market Index % -1.7% -4.4% -7.9% -0.3% Citigroup European Gov't Bond % -0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% BofAML Euro High Yield Index % -1.7% -0.6% -2.4% -0.4% Citigroup Asia Gov't Bond Investable % -0.9% -1.3% -4.7% -1.3% HSBC Asian USD Bond (HY) % 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% JPM HY Bond Spread-to-Worst Glbl % 9.3% 14.0% 36.3% 3.6% US Treasury Yields Change in Yield (in bps) 3-Month - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Change (%) Commodity 8-Jan Weekly Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month Close Change Energy WTI Crude Futures ($/barrel) % -11.6% -32.9% -35.8% -10.5% Brent Crude Futures ($/barrel) % -16.7% -36.8% -41.2% -10.0% Natural Gas Futures (MMBtu) % 19.4% -1.0% -7.9% 5.8% Base Metals LME Aluminum Futures ($/MT) % 1.0% -4.4% -10.7% -1.0% LME Copper Futures ($/MT) % -2.2% -12.7% -18.8% -4.7% Precious Metals Comex Gold Futures ($/oz.) % 2.1% -4.1% -5.6% 3.6% Comex Silver Futures ($/oz.) % -1.4% -11.7% -8.2% 0.8% 5

6 Sector Outlook: Ayieldplay:Hong Kong utility stocks are yield plays in view of The Hang Seng Index (HSI) plunged 6.67% or 1,460 their high payout ratio at 59-71% in FY15E, and strong recurrent points to 20,453 for the first trading week of 2016 amid cash inflow from local operation. sell-off of Chinese stocks. Negative correlation with US bond yield: Share price The CSI 300 index plunged 7% and 7.2 respectively performances of utilities are negatively correlated (77-89%) to US$ last Monday and Thursday, which triggered the Stock bond yields, vs. 57% for HSI in the last ten years. Circuit Breaker mechanism. Scheme of Control agreement will expire: In Hong Kong, the The HSI and CSI 300 rebounded 0.59% and 2.04% existing Scheme of Control agreement will expire by end-2018 and respectively last Friday after the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced to suspend Stock we think the new agreement will be signed in 2H 2017, after the Circuit Breaker mechanism on Thursday night. election of the new Chief Executive in Hong Kong in March Average daily turnover increased to HK$82.8 billion from HK$37 billion the previous week. Overseas acquisition a likely catalyst: Overseas acquisition remains the key positive catalyst near term to drive share-price performance, in our view. 6 Hong Kong Stocks Update Chart 5: Weekly Top/Bottom Five HSI Constituents Top 5 Performers -2.19% -2.52% -2.83% -2.96% -3.16% SHK PPT POWER ASSETS CATHAY PAC AIR CLP HOLDINGS HONG KG CHINA GS BANK EAST ASIA PING AN-H CHINA RES LAND CHINA OVERSEAS SANDS CHINA LTD Bottom 5 Performers % % % % % Sector Update: HK Utilities HSI Sector Performance last week Latest Updates: Relatively resilient amid volatility: Utilities demonstrated resilience amid a volatile stock market last week. The Hang Seng Utilities Index fell 2.97%, vs HSI s 6.7% decline.

7 Citi analysts : Global Equity Index (Remarks: as of Jan 8, 2016) Citi forecasts Valuation Past Performance 8-Jan End-2016 Expected Forecast P/E ratio Forecast P/B ratio Region / Index 1-Week 3-Month YTD Close Change Global MSCI AC World Index (Local) -6.0% -5.5% -6.0% % MSCI EM Index -6.8% -12.8% -6.8% % US S&P 500 Index -6.0% -4.5% -6.0% 1,922 2, % DJ Industrial Average -6.2% -4.1% -6.2% 16,346 19, % Russell 2000 Index -7.9% -10.1% -7.9% 1, Europe STOXX Europe % -5.6% -6.7% % FTSE 100 Index -5.3% -7.3% -5.3% 5,912 6, % DAX Index -8.3% -1.4% -8.3% 9, CAC 40 Index -6.5% -7.3% -6.5% 4, Japan Topix -6.5% -2.3% -6.5% 1,447 1, % Nikkei % -2.4% -7.0% 17, Asia MSCI Asia ex Japan -6.3% -8.9% -6.3% % Shanghai Composite -10.0% 1.4% -10.0% 3,186 3, % CSI % 2.0% -9.9% 3,362 3, % Hang Seng Index -6.7% -8.5% -6.7% 20, HS China Enterprise Index -8.4% -14.0% -8.4% 8,846 11, % MSCI China -8.1% -11.3% -8.1% % S&P/ASX % -4.2% -5.8% 4,991 6, % Taiwan TAIEX Index -5.3% -6.5% -5.3% 7,894 10,000* 26.7% Kospi Index -2.2% -5.0% -2.2% 1,918 2,150* 12.1% BSE Sensex 30 Index -4.7% -7.1% -4.5% 24,934 32, % Jakarta Composite Index -1.0% 1.2% -1.0% 4,546 5,925* 30.3% Straits Times Index -4.6% -6.6% -4.6% 2,751 3,416* 24.2% FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI -2.1% -2.0% -2.1% 1,658 1, % SET Index -3.4% -10.6% -3.4% 1,244 1, % Latin America Brazil Ibovespa Index -6.3% -17.3% -6.3% 40,612 54, % Mexico IPC Index -6.3% -8.6% -6.3% 40,265 48, % Emerging Europe Russia RTS Index $ -2.7% -14.0% -2.7% Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of Jan 8, 2016 Note: * = mid-2016 forecasts 7

8 Citi analysts : Commodity Future Price (Remarks: as of Jan 8, 2016) Past Performance 1-Week 3-Month YTD Citi analysts' forecasts Months Months Energy NYMEX WTI Crude USD/bbl -10.5% -32.9% -10.5% % ICE Brent Crude USD/bbl -10.0% -36.8% -10.0% % NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.8% -1.0% 5.8% % Base Metals Aluminum (LME) USD/MT -1.0% -4.4% -1.0% 1,493 1,480 1, % Copper (LME) USD/MT -4.7% -12.7% -4.7% 4,485 4,950 5, % Lead (LME) USD/MT -9.6% -3.1% -9.6% 1,621 1,650 1, % Nickel (LME) USD/MT -2.9% -15.9% -2.9% 8,560 9,600 12, % Tin (LME) USD/MT -5.5% -13.5% -5.5% 13,750 15,000 15, % Zinc (LME) USD/MT -6.2% -9.5% -6.2% 1,509 1,790 1, % Precious Metals Gold (Comex) USD/oz 3.6% -4.1% 3.6% 1, ,050 1, % Silver (Comex) USD/oz 0.8% -11.7% 0.8% % Platinum (NYMEX) USD/oz -1.5% -8.0% -1.5% , % Palladium (NYMEX) USD/oz -12.2% -29.8% -12.2% % Agriculture Corn (CBT) USd/bu -0.5% -8.8% -0.5% % Wheat (CBT) USd/bu 1.8% -6.5% 1.8% % Soybean (CBT) USd/bu -0.7% -1.8% -0.7% % Rice (CBT) USD/cwt 2.4% -8.8% 2.4% % Cotton (NYB-ICE) USd/lb -3.0% -0.5% -3.0% % Sugar (NYB-ICE) USd/lb -5.1% 3.2% -5.1% % Coffee (NYB-ICE) USd/lb -6.1% -7.4% -6.1% % Cocoa (NYB-ICE) USD/MT -6.0% -1.4% -6.0% 3, ,200 3, % 8-Jan Close Expected Change (6-12 Months) 8 Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of Jan 8, 2016

9 Citi analysts : Foreign Exchange (Remarks: as of Jan 8, 2016) Past Performance 8-Jan Citi analysts' forecasts Expected Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Close 0-3 Months 6-12 Months (6-12 Months) Major Pairs Dollar Index -0.1% 3.4% -0.1% % Euro 0.6% -3.1% 0.6% % Japanese Yen -2.7% -2.2% -2.5% % British Pound -1.6% -5.4% -1.5% % Swiss Franc -0.7% 3.0% -0.7% % Australian Dollar -4.8% -4.2% -4.6% % New Zealand Dollar -4.9% -1.8% -4.2% % Canadian Dollar 2.3% 8.9% 2.4% % Asia Chinese Renminbi -1.5% -3.7% -1.5% % Indonesian Rupiah -0.7% -0.3% -1.0% 13,923 14,000 14, % Indian Rupee -0.7% -2.3% -0.7% % Korean Won -2.1% -3.3% -1.9% 1,198 1,175 1, % Malaysian Ringgit -2.2% -3.6% -2.2% % Philippine Peso -0.6% -2.2% -0.6% % Singapore Dollar -2.1% -2.7% -1.7% % Thai Baht -0.8% -1.5% -0.8% % Taiwan Dollar -1.5% -2.2% -1.4% % EMEA Russian Ruble -3.0% -17.9% -3.0% % Turkish Lira -3.3% -4.2% -3.4% % South African Rand -4.6% -18.4% -5.1% % Latin America Brazilian Real -1.6% -6.0% -1.6% % Mexico Peso -3.8% -8.2% -4.1% % Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of Jan 8,

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