Market Review and Outlook

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Market Review and Outlook"

Transcription

1 Market Review and Outlook Cedar Hill Associates, LLC January North River Road, Suite 1100, Rosemont, Illinois Phone: 312/ An affiliate of MB Financial Bank

2 Table of Contents Tab I: 2015 Investment Highlights Tab II: Investment Strategy Review Tab III: Other Charts 2

3 Tab I 2015 Investment Highlights 3

4 2015 Major Investment Themes Equity Market Volatility Re-Emerged: Investors stomached a white-knuckle ride through most of While the S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive year of positive results, the paltry 1.4% return was entirely due to dividends. International equity markets disappointed with the developed international markets down (MSCI EAFE Index) 0.8% and emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Market Index) down 14.9%. Fixed Income Confounds Experts: Despite nearly non-stop discussions about the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve s first rate hike since 2006, rates only increased once, by 0.25%, in December. Interest rates finished nearly where they started, with the 10-Year Treasury moving from 2.2% to 2.3% by yearend. As a result, the Barclays Intermediate Taxable Bond Index was only up 1.2%. for the period 12/31/14-12/31/15 Source: Bloomberg Global Monetary Policies Diverge: While the Federal Reserve raised rates, Europe and Japan continued their easing efforts. The dollar climbed about 9% against a broad basket of major currencies as investors sought higher yielding dollar investments. Continued Economic Growth: The economy continued its sustained path of expansion, albeit at a slower than desired 2% - 2.5% GDP growth rate. Energy Prices Continued to Fall: Even though companies cut back on oil and natural gas drilling, better productivity resulted in a widening gap between supply and demand. 4

5 2015 Outlook Scorecard 2015 Outlook Outcome What It Meant for CHA Clients Equities: Economic conditions, monetary policy and valuation all continue to be favorable for further equity market increases in equity markets should continue their climb higher, but at a much more modest pace and in line with corporate earnings growth. International Equities: Quantitative easing measures announced by the European Central Bank should push markets higher in While emerging markets remain out of favor, valuation levels are attractive. Equity Income: Despite fears that higher interest rates will cause a sell-off in high dividend paying stocks, Equity Income securities remain attractive and pay a hefty premium above traditional fixed income. Partially Correct Incorrect Incorrect Equity results were modest and in line with stagnant corporate earnings growth. Earnings disappointed primarily due to profit erosion in the energy sector and a significant drag from the strengthening dollar. Developed international markets were relatively flat, but emerging markets suffered alongside declining commodity prices. Income-oriented securities declined in 2015 because of falling oil prices, but only limited dividend cuts means the strategy continues to pay a hefty premium above traditional fixed income. Fixed Income: Rates are unlikely to surge from year-end levels, but limited benefit can be achieved by pursuing additional risk. High quality, intermediate to long-term municipal bonds offer the most compelling risk/return. Correct Interest rates were range-bound in 2015, with most fixed income indices posting flat to slightly positive results. 5

6 Tab II Investment Strategy Review 6

7 Equity Markets 2015 Recap While the S&P 500 posted a modest 1.4% return in 2015, there was significant price volatility throughout the year, including a 6.4% decline in the third quarter and a 6.8% rally in the fourth quarter. Source: Bloomberg Industry Sector 2015 Total Return Utilities -4.8% Health Care 6.9% Information Technology 5.9% Financials -1.5% Consumer Staples 6.6% Consumer Discretionary 10.1% Industrials -2.5% Materials -8.4% Telecom Services 3.4% Energy -21.1% Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC With a dividend yield of just above 2%, the S&P 500 s total return was slightly less than its dividend. As is typical late in a market cycle, growth outperformed value as investors were willing to pay more for growing revenues and profits. This led to a narrow market rally: Facebook (+34%), Amazon (+118%), Netflix (+134%), and Google (+45%). After a strong start to the year, small cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, finished the year down 4.4% because of fears of slower economic growth. The S&P 500 ended 2015 at a P/E of 17.3x, which is slightly higher than the historical average forward PE of 16.4x. The slight valuation premium appears warranted in a low interest rate environment. 7

8 Corporate Earnings Domestic corporate earnings growth was relatively stagnant in 2015, primarily because of profit erosion in the energy sector (-59%) and a significant drag from the strengthening dollar. Absent a global or domestic recession (both of which we view as unlikely), corporate earnings in 2016 should return to the long-term trend of mid to high singledigit growth Forecast 2016 Forecast 8

9 Investor Sentiment: Cautious With the bull market approaching its seven-year anniversary, investor sentiment has become increasingly cautious. For the period 1/1/90-12/31/15 Source: Bloomberg The ISM Manufacturing Index is a closely observed leading economic indicator. While manufacturing activity is under pressure because of the decline in commodity-related activity and the strong dollar s negative impact on export demand, manufacturing now represents just 12% of the economy. More importantly, the services side of the economy (accounting for the majority of activity) remains healthy, as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is still depicting solid expansion. For the period 1/1/97-12/31/15 Source: Bloomberg Shaded areas of charts indicate recessions. 9

10 Equity Markets S&P 500 Stock Price Index Shaded areas above indicate re ces s ions. 3/24/00 10/9/07 12/31/15 Forward P/E 26.5x 16.5x 17.3x Yield 1.2% 1.8% 2.1% Federal Funds Rate 6.0% 4.8% 0.5% 10 Year Treasury Yield 6.2% 4.6% 2.3% For the period 1/1/90 12/31/15 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg 2016 Outlook We expect equity returns in 2016 to closely track the trajectory of corporate earnings growth and finish the year up modestly. We do not foresee an impending recession and/or rapidly rising interest rates, which have historically been the two most common factors that cause a bear market. An aging business cycle, tighter (though still accommodative) Fed monetary policy, variability in the commodity markets, and escalating geopolitical risks will likely keep volatility at elevated levels. That said, we still believe solid fundamentals are in place for the market to overcome these concerns as the year progresses. While acknowledging that we are now firmly in the second half of this economic cycle, the unusually slow recovery following such a deep recession means the duration of this expansion could continue to extend well beyond the typical recovery period (five years). That potential, together with a likely rebound in corporate profit growth, creates a strong opportunity for stocks to outperform other asset classes. Slightly elevated valuation levels are not overly concerning given the low rate environment. P/E multiples have shown no ability to forecast short-term pullbacks, but instead more accurately forecast whether longer-term results will be above or below average. Technology and Health Care remain favored sectors, as much for their valuations as for their operational outlook. 10

11 International Equity Markets 2015 Recap Market Performance Index Name 2015 Results S&P % MSCI EAFE -0.8% MSCI Europe -2.8% Nikkei 225 (Japan) 11.0% MSCI Emerging Markets -14.9% MSCI BRIC -13.5% MSCI Emerging Asia -9.8% MSCI Latin America -31.0% Source: Bloomberg Concerns of slow economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, led to subpar results for international equities. European and Japanese equities earned decent gains in local currency: the MSCI Europe and Nikkei 225 gained 4.9% and 9.1%, respectively. Gains in European markets, however, were only realized if currency exposure was fully hedged as the dollar climbed about 9% against a broad basket of major currencies. Emerging markets continue to underperform because of concerns over a slowing global economy, declines in most commodity prices and very weak currencies. China took center stage as a strong equity rally during the first part of the year quickly dissipated during the summer because of growth concerns and a series of ineffective policy responses. Market Valuations Index Name P/E Ratio S&P x MSCI EAFE 15.5x MSCI Emerging Markets 12.5x Source: Bloomberg as of 12/31/ Outlook Developed international economies should continue to see a rebound in economic growth, but markets will likely be weighed down by its sub-par pace. Notwithstanding economic growth, currency and commodity challenges, strong balance sheets, better demographics and more attractive valuation levels make emerging markets attractive relative to other equity markets. 11

12 Equity Income Index Name 2015 Results Alerian MLP Index -32.6% FTSE mreit Index -8.9% S&P BDC Index -3.7% S&P 500 Index 1.4% Barclays Agg Bond Index 0.6% Source: Bloomberg for the period 1/1/07 12/31/15 Source: Bloomberg for the period 1/1/07 12/31/15 Source: Bloomberg 2015 Recap Equity Income underperformed our expectations primarily because of the decline in Master Limited Partnerships, which, despite growth of more than 10% in their distributions, saw their stock prices severely affected by falling oil prices. Although most MLP revenues being tied to the volume of oil and gas running through pipelines, when energy price moves are extreme, MLP prices may temporarily decline alongside them. During 2015, crude oil prices declined 30% and the Alerian MLP index declined 33%. Mortgage REITs posted a 9% loss, as their strong dividend yield was offset by rising interest rate fears. Business Development Companies (BDCs) declined alongside wider credit spreads for high yield bonds as fears of an economic recession heightened Outlook Key benefits of the strategy remain: significant current income (8%+), additional appreciation potential as prices converge with the security s higher intrinsic value, and limited correlation to stocks and bonds. Notwithstanding fears that higher interest rates will cause a sell-off in high dividend paying stocks, Equity Income securities remain attractive and pay a hefty yield premium above traditional fixed income. Overweight MLPs, as the strategy appears to be set up to deliver strong returns in The timing and magnitude of this rebound will likely depend upon technical selling subsiding, oil price stabilization, and management teams reconfirming current distribution and growth potential. 12

13 Fixed Income Interest Rates Bond Index 12/31/ /31/ Year Treasury 0.3% 0.7% 5-Year Treasury 1.7% 1.8% 10-Year Treasury 2.2% 2.3% 30-Year Treasury 2.8% 3.0% Barclays Int'l Taxable Bond Index 2.0% 2.3% Barclays 5-Year Muni Bond Index 1.4% 1.5% Barclays Corporate Index 2.1% 3.6% Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II 6.7% 8.8% Source: Bloomberg 2015 Returns Bond Index Year Treasury 0.90% Barclays Int'l Taxable Bond Index 1.21% Barclays 5-Year Muni Bond Index 2.43% Barclays Corporate Index -0.68% Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II -4.61% Source: Bloomberg, Zephyr, and JP Morgan 2015 Recap While much speculation surrounded the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve s first rate hike since 2006, only one 0.25% rate hike occurred in December. The 10-year Treasury finished the year yielding 2.17%, only 0.13% higher than the start of the year. Concerns about the pace of economic growth and the absence of inflation have many questioning how quickly the Fed will raise rates in 2016, particularly in light of the precipitous drop in energy prices. The Barclays Intermediate Taxable Bond index finished the year up just 1.2%, slightly less than its yield at the start of the year. Corporate bond credit spreads moved wider. The yield on high yield bonds widened from 5.8% to 8.8% over the past 18-months as investors demand additional yield for incremental credit risk. Municipal bonds enjoyed a strong rally, outperforming nearly all equity indices and taxable bonds. Better municipal finances, stronger demand and limited new supply all contributed to the rally. European sovereign bonds performed well as investors remain concerned about economic growth prospects. The German 10-year bond finished the year yielding a paltry 0.62%. 13

14 Fixed Income 2016 Outlook Source: Bloomberg Though we do not expect rates to be materially different at the end of the year, rates will move within a fairly wide range and the yield curve may flatten further as the Fed raises short-term rates. Given the low yields on foreign bonds, it is difficult to see how rates could rise significantly, though extending duration offers limited additional benefit. Corporate Bonds: Investment grade and high yield appear attractively priced, but oil prices will likely need to stabilize before spreads begin to tighten. Municipal Bonds: Limited new issuance (supply) provide positive backdrop for decent returns relative to government bonds. While the Fed is expected to raise rates throughout 2016, rate increases will be slow and a lower for longer scenario is likely. Additional labor market tightening will be a lead indicator of inflation and higher interest rates. 14

15 2016 Outlook Summary Equities: We expect equity returns in 2016 to track the trajectory of corporate earnings growth closely and finish the year up modestly, while volatility levels will remain elevated. Equities: While acknowledging that we are now firmly in the second half of this economic cycle, the unusually slow recovery following such a deep recession means the duration of this expansion could continue to extend well beyond the typical recovery period (five years). International Equities: Developed international economies should continue to see a rebound in economic growth, but stronger balance sheets, better demographics and lower valuation levels make emerging markets more attractive after sentiment improves. Equity Income: Despite fears that higher interest rates will cause a sell-off in high dividend paying stocks, Equity Income investments, and MLPs in particular, remain attractive and pay a hefty premium above traditional fixed income. Fixed Income: Though rates are unlikely to surge or drop significantly from today s levels, extending bond duration offers limited additional benefit. High quality, intermediate to longer-term municipal bonds offer the most compelling risk/return. At current yield, investment grade corporate bonds offer compelling value relative to treasury securities. 15

16 Tab III Other Charts 16

17 A Narrow Market Rally While the S&P 500 increased 1.2% in 2015, the average stock price fell 4.1%. Update Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 17 for the period 9/30/11-12/31/15

18 Performance by Investment Style 2015 was a difficult environment for fundament value investing. Source: Evercore ISI for the period 1/1/15 12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 18

19 Standard & Poor s Composite In August 2015, the S&P 500 suffered its first 10% correction since June 2012 and the largest correction since October for the period 3/6/09-12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 19

20 10-Year Treasury Rates Interest rates continued their more than 30-year descent. for the period 12/31/41-12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 20

21 Treasury Yields The 10-year Treasury finished the year yielding a paltry 2.27%. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 21 for the period 12/31/09-12/31/15

22 Yield Curve The yield curve shifted out in for the period 12/31/14-12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 22

23 High Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Rates High yield bond spreads to the 10-year Treasuries widened in 2015; lower quality credits were especially hard hit. This spread widening has made high yield more attractive. for the period 12/31/10-12/31/15 for the period 12/31/10-12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 23

24 Oil As the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has declined, so have the number of rigs drilling for oil. for the period 12/28/07-12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 24

25 Dollar After a strong rally early in the year, the Dollar has range traded since March for the period 5/4/11 12/31/15 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. 25

26 Asset Class Returns Asset class performance is cyclical Source REITs 35.06% Emerging Markets 32.95% Int'l Equities 26.33% Small Cap 18.37% Large Cap 15.79% Hedge Funds 12.89% Cash 4.85% Bonds 4.33% Commodities 2.07% Emerging Markets 39.37% Commodities 16.23% Int'l Equities 11.18% Hedge Funds 9.96% Bonds 6.97% Large Cap 5.49% Cash 5.00% Small Cap -1.57% REITs % Bonds 5.24% Cash 2.06% Hedge Funds % Small Cap % Commodities % Large Cap % REITs % Int'l Equities % Emerging Markets % Emerging Markets 78.50% Int'l Equities 31.78% REITs 27.99% Small Cap 27.17% Large Cap 26.46% Hedge Funds 19.98% Commodities 18.91% Bonds 5.93% Cash 0.21% REITs 27.96% Small Cap 26.86% Emerging Markets 18.86% Commodities 16.83% Large Cap 15.06% Hedge Funds 10.25% Int'l Equities 7.74% Bonds 6.54% Cash 0.13% REITs 8.29% Bonds 7.84% Large Cap 2.11% Cash 0.10% Small Cap -4.18% Hedge Funds -5.25% Int'l Equities % Commodities % Emerging Markets % Emerging Markets 18.23% REITs 18.06% Int'l Equities 17.32% Small Cap 16.35% Large Cap 16.00% Hedge Funds 6.36% Bonds 4.21% Cash 0.11% Commodities -1.06% Small Cap 38.82% Large Cap 32.39% Int'l Equities 22.80% Hedge Funds 7.9% REITs 2.47% Cash 0.07% Bonds -2.02% Emerging Markets -2.63% Commodities -9.52% REITs 30.14% Large Cap 13.69% Bonds 5.97% Small Cap 4.89% Hedge Funds 2.98% Cash 0.04% Emerging Markets -2.19% Int'l Equities -4.91% Commodities % REITs 3.20% Large Cap 1.38% Hedge Funds 0.80% Bonds 0.55% Cash 0.05% Int'l Equities -0.82% Small Cap -4.41% Emerging Markets % Commodities % for the period 1/1/06-12/31/15 Large Cap Small Cap S&P 500 Index Russell 2000 Index Int'l Equities MSCI EAFE Index Emerging Markets Hedge Funds REITs Commodities Bonds Cash MSCI Emerging Markets Index HFRI Fund Weighted Index FTSE Nareit Equity Index Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index Barclays Aggregate Index BofA ML 3-month Treasury Index Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future investment results. Source: Zephyr and MSCI Barra 26

27 Disclosures This Market Review may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forwardlooking statements (including words such as believe, estimate, anticipate, may, will, should, and expect). Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Various factors could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed in such forward-looking statements. Any information provided by Cedar Hill regarding historical market performance is for illustrative and educational purposes only. Clients or prospective clients should not assume that their performance will equal or exceed historical market results and/or averages. The performance results for Cedar Hill Core Equity are provided by Cedar Hill. Composite results include fee paying accounts that have been managed by Cedar Hill for at least six months, have an investment objective of 90% or more of the assets invested in Core Equity, and have a minimum value of $200,000. The composite includes the history of active and terminated accounts. Cedar Hill does not believe the inclusion of accounts with 10% or less invested in non-core Equity strategies has a material impact on the results of the composite. Cedar Hill does not believe the inclusion of accounts below the $1 million stated minimum account size has a material impact on the results of the composite. The performance results for Cedar Hill Equity Income are provided by Cedar Hill. Composite results include fee paying accounts that have been managed by Cedar Hill for at least three months and have an investment objective of 90% or more of the assets invested in Equity Income. The composite includes the history of active and terminated accounts. Cedar Hill does not believe the inclusion of accounts with 10% or less invested in non-equity Income strategies has a material impact on the results of the composite. Cedar Hill does not believe the inclusion of accounts below the $1 million stated minimum account size has a material impact on the results of the composite. Performance results include reinvestment of dividends, interest, and capital gains. Results include the deduction of commissions and other expenses incurred in the management of the account. Investment performance results do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, which would reduce client returns. For example, if a $1 million account is charged a 1% annual advisory fee and the stated gross performance is 10.0% annualized over a 10-year time period, the compounding effect of the deduction of advisory fees will result in net of fees performance of 8.9%. The dollar amount of the account would be $2,345, (net of fees) as opposed to $2,593, (gross of fees). Cedar Hill s advisory fees are described in Part 2A of Form ADV. 27

28 Disclosures (continued) Performance results for the S&P 500 Index are provided by Standard and Poor s, and include the reinvestment of dividends, interest and capital gains. Cedar Hill has made assumptions about the appropriateness of this benchmark for the Core Equity investment strategy. Performance results for the 50% S&P 500 Index/50% Barclays Aggregate: S&P 500 is an unmanaged benchmark; results are provided by Standard and Poor s and include the reinvestment of dividends, interest and capital gains. Barclays Aggregate is an unmanaged benchmark; results are provided by Barclays Capital and include the reinvestment of interest payments and capital gains. Cedar Hill has made assumptions about the appropriateness of this benchmark for the Equity Income investment strategy. Inclusion of index information is not intended to suggest that its performance is equivalent or similar to that of the historical investments whose returns are presented or that investment with our firm is an absolute alternative to investments in the index (if such investment were possible). Investors should be aware that the referenced benchmark funds may have a different composition, volatility, risk, investment philosophy, holding times, and/or other investment-related factors that may affect the benchmark funds ultimate performance results. Therefore, an investor s individual results may vary significantly from the benchmark s performance. The information presented herein is intended for reference purposes only. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of any specific investment or future investment results. Views regarding the economy, securities markets or other specialized areas, like all predictors of future events, cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and may result in economic loss to the investor. This Market Review is intended to provide general information only and should not be construed as an offer of specifically tailored individualized advice. 28

2015 Mid-Year Market Review

2015 Mid-Year Market Review 2015 Mid-Year Market Review Cedar Hill Associates, LLC www.cedhill.com 6111 North River Road, Suite 1100, Rosemont, Illinois 60018 Phone: 312/445-2900 An Affiliate of MB Financial Bank 2015 Major Investment

More information

to Wealth Management resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group

to Wealth Management resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group A Defined Approach to Wealth Management Giving UWI access to the combined resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group The information in this presentation is intended

More information

Economic & Market Outlook

Economic & Market Outlook Monthly Portfolio Commentary December 31, 2015 Economic & Market Outlook Stocks rebounded in 2015 s fourth quarter, but provided little reward for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 Index recovered from

More information

How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns

How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns Strategic Advisory Solutions April 2015 How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns In an environment where the US continues to be the growth engine of the developed world, investors may find opportunity

More information

Pioneer Bond Fund. Performance Analysis & Commentary September 2015. Fund Ticker Symbols: PIOBX (Class A); PICYX (Class Y) us.pioneerinvestments.

Pioneer Bond Fund. Performance Analysis & Commentary September 2015. Fund Ticker Symbols: PIOBX (Class A); PICYX (Class Y) us.pioneerinvestments. Pioneer Bond Fund COMMENTARY Performance Analysis & Commentary September 2015 Fund Ticker Symbols: PIOBX (Class A); PICYX (Class Y) us.pioneerinvestments.com Third Quarter Review Pioneer Bond Fund s Class

More information

Fixed Income Review. Second Quarter 2015

Fixed Income Review. Second Quarter 2015 Second Quarter 2015 As of June 30, 2015 Total Return Performance Calendar Year Performance Index MTD QTD YTD 2014 2013 2012 Barclays US Aggregate -1.1% -1.7% -0.1% 6.0% -2.0% 4.2% BAML US Agency Index

More information

Fixed Income Strategy Quarterly April 2015

Fixed Income Strategy Quarterly April 2015 Doucet Asset Management Fixed Income Strategy Quarterly April 2015 The first quarter of 2015 was a fairly uneventful one. Across the world, the pullback in yields we witnessed in 2014 continued; however,

More information

Schwab Target Funds. Go paperless today. Simplify your financial life by viewing these documents online. Sign up at schwab.

Schwab Target Funds. Go paperless today. Simplify your financial life by viewing these documents online. Sign up at schwab. Annual report dated October 31, 2015, enclosed. Schwab Target Funds Schwab Target 2010 Fund Schwab Target 2015 Fund Schwab Target 2020 Fund Schwab Target 2025 Fund Schwab Target 2030 Fund Schwab Target

More information

2015 2 nd Quarter Market Commentary

2015 2 nd Quarter Market Commentary 2015 2 nd Quarter Market Commentary 1 Second Quarter Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve communicated that recent economic growth means the era of easy money may soon come to a close, causing bond yields

More information

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds Research Opportunity in High Yield Bonds 2016 Q1 Quarterly Commentary Weyland Capital Management LLC - 22 Deer Street - Portsmouth, New Hampshire 03801 p. 603.433.8994 www.weyland.com This document reflects

More information

SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary

SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary J.P.Morgan Asset Management 3 rd Quarter 2014 Performance Highlights SmartRetirement s Performance Objectives The JPMorgan SmartRetirement Mutual Funds are designed

More information

Taxable Fixed Income Outlook: Waiting for Those Rising Rates

Taxable Fixed Income Outlook: Waiting for Those Rising Rates Taxable Fixed Income Outlook: Waiting for Those Rising Rates Market Commentary Fourth quarter 2014 MOST INVESTORS UNDERSTAND THAT INTEREST RATES ARE UNPREDICTABLE. But we suspect few believed rates could

More information

McKinley Capital U.S. Equity Income Prospects for Performance in a Changing Interest Rate Environment

McKinley Capital U.S. Equity Income Prospects for Performance in a Changing Interest Rate Environment March 25, 2014 McKinley Capital U.S. Equity Income Prospects for Performance in a Changing Interest Rate Environment This paper analyzes the historic performance of the McKinley Capital Management, LLC

More information

Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices

Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices November 14, 2014 Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices Executive Summary The $30 fall in oil prices since July reflects greater U.S. supply as well as worries about a significant

More information

Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014

Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014 Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014 by John Simms, CFA and Jerry Wiesner, CFA General Bond Market Treasury yields rose in September as prices fell. Yields in the belly of the curve (5- to 7-year maturities)

More information

With interest rates at historically low levels, and the U.S. economy showing continued strength,

With interest rates at historically low levels, and the U.S. economy showing continued strength, Managing Interest Rate Risk in Your Bond Holdings THE RIGHT STRATEGY MAY HELP FIXED INCOME PORTFOLIOS DURING PERIODS OF RISING INTEREST RATES. With interest rates at historically low levels, and the U.S.

More information

ANY GAS LEFT IN THE HIGH-YIELD MUNICIPAL TANK?

ANY GAS LEFT IN THE HIGH-YIELD MUNICIPAL TANK? May 9, 2016 ANY GAS LEFT IN THE HIGH-YIELD MUNICIPAL TANK? A favorable credit environment and technical factors have contributed to strong high-yield municipal performance. We see limited room for further

More information

HIGH QUALITY PREMIER OUR PHILOSOPHY THE ATTRIBUTES OUR APPROACH

HIGH QUALITY PREMIER OUR PHILOSOPHY THE ATTRIBUTES OUR APPROACH HIGH QUALITY PREMIER September 30, 2015 (3Q) FACT SHEET OUR PHILOSOPHY We believe that securities with stable and predictable cash flows, and low credit and event risk produce consistent returns while

More information

First Quarter 2015 Financial Market Commentary April, 2015. Stocks Hit New Highs in a Volatile Quarter

First Quarter 2015 Financial Market Commentary April, 2015. Stocks Hit New Highs in a Volatile Quarter Hit New Highs in a Volatile Quarter Stock investors in the U.S. and around the globe had plenty to cheer about during the first quarter of 2015 as at least 17 world stock indexes set news highs due to

More information

2013 GSAM Insurance Survey & Industry Investment Trends

2013 GSAM Insurance Survey & Industry Investment Trends Global Insurance Asset Management AASCIF Annual Workshop Fall 23 23 GSAM Insurance Survey & Industry Investment Trends Michael Siegel, PhD Global Head of GSAM Insurance Asset Management September 3, 23

More information

2016 Investment Outlook

2016 Investment Outlook Prepared for Merrill Lynch 2016 Investment Outlook Presentation By: Robert C. Doll, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Chief Equity Strategist Ten Predictions May 2016 NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Kusske Financial Management Inc. ADD TAGLINE OR SLOGAN EYE ON THE MARKET. September 2014 Express MARKET DATA

Kusske Financial Management Inc. ADD TAGLINE OR SLOGAN EYE ON THE MARKET. September 2014 Express MARKET DATA OMPANY LOGO HERE Kusske Financial Management Inc. ADD TAGLINE OR SLOGAN 11986 Portland Ave South Burnsville, MN 55337 952-895- 6963 NPH Due Diligence MARKET DATA August 3 Mo. YTD 1 Year S&P 500 3.77% 4.15%

More information

The Coming Volatility

The Coming Volatility The Coming Volatility Lowell Bolken, CFA Vice President and Portfolio Manager Real estate Securities June 18, 2015 www.advantuscapital.com S&P 500 Percent Daily Change in Price September 2008 to April

More information

The Fix Fixed income flashback: is history going to repeat?

The Fix Fixed income flashback: is history going to repeat? December 2014 For professional investors only The Fix Fixed income flashback: is history going to repeat? Kellie Wood, Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income Traditional financial theory portends that bond prices

More information

KDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.

KDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. High Yield Bond and Senior Secured Bank Loan Outlook October 2015 Asset Management, Inc. 24 Elm Street Montpelier, Vermont 802.223.0440 HighYield@kdpam.com This is an analytical

More information

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks

More information

KDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.

KDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. High Yield Bond and Senior Secured Bank Loan Outlook March 2016 Asset Management, Inc. 24 Elm Street Montpelier, Vermont 802.223.0440 HighYield@kdpam.com The Case for High Yield

More information

Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target Date Funds SM

Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target Date Funds SM Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target Date Funds SM Annual Report February 28, 2015 Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target Today Fund SM Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target 2010 Fund SM Wells Fargo

More information

SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC.

SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC. SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC. ANNUAL MANAGEMENT REPORT OF FUND PERFORMANCE for the financial year ended December 31, 2014 Sun Life BlackRock Canadian Universe Bond Fund This annual management

More information

NPH Fixed Income Research Update. Bob Downing, CFA. NPH Senior Investment & Due Diligence Analyst

NPH Fixed Income Research Update. Bob Downing, CFA. NPH Senior Investment & Due Diligence Analyst White Paper: NPH Fixed Income Research Update Authored By: Bob Downing, CFA NPH Senior Investment & Due Diligence Analyst National Planning Holdings, Inc. Due Diligence Department National Planning Holdings,

More information

Inside the Markets Conference Call

Inside the Markets Conference Call Inside the Markets Conference Call April 3, 2014 Presented by: Hefren-Tillotson Asset Management Meticulous Wealth Management Since 1948 Hefren-Tillotson, Inc. 308 Seventh Ave Pittsburgh, PA 15222 Ph:

More information

BALANCED fund. Fourth Quarter Results FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. December 31, 2015

BALANCED fund. Fourth Quarter Results FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. December 31, 2015 BALANCED fund Fourth Quarter Results December 31, 2015 FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM BALANCED fund (MAPOX) Fourth Quarter Market Overview - December 31, 2015 Investors facing growing uncertainty

More information

JPMorgan SmartRetirement: Q2 2014 Views Strategic Asset Allocation, Manager Selection, and Tactical Asset Allocation

JPMorgan SmartRetirement: Q2 2014 Views Strategic Asset Allocation, Manager Selection, and Tactical Asset Allocation JPMorgan SmartRetirement: Q2 2014 Views Strategic Asset Allocation, Manager Selection, and Tactical Asset Allocation SmartRetirement Blend Mutual Contents Strategic Allocation Changes: 2 (No changes for

More information

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything Schwab Center for Financial Research A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything A white paper by Kathy A. Jones, Senior Vice President, Chief Fixed Income Strategist The U.S. dollar is near its highest level

More information

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy January 2016 2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook After Struggling in 2015, Global Equity Markets likely

More information

Retirement Balanced Fund

Retirement Balanced Fund SUMMARY PROSPECTUS TRRIX October 1, 2015 T. Rowe Price Retirement Balanced Fund A fund designed for retired investors seeking capital growth and income through investments in a combination of T. Rowe Price

More information

NORTHERN TRUST ACTIVE FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE. Core/Core Plus Investment Strategy

NORTHERN TRUST ACTIVE FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE. Core/Core Plus Investment Strategy NORTHERN TRUST ACTIVE FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE Core/Core Plus Investment Strategy SUMMARY: The Northern Fixed Income Fund (NOFIX)*and Northern Core Bond Fund (NOCBX)** both received four-star overall

More information

Fund commentary. John Hancock Retirement Living Portfolios Q1 2016

Fund commentary. John Hancock Retirement Living Portfolios Q1 2016 John Hancock Retirement Living Portfolios Fund commentary Seek: Long-term growth of capital or a balance between a high level of current income and growth of capital Use for: Broadly diversified, risk-targeted

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY Update on Risks and Opportunities in the Financial Markets January 2015 Weekly Market Commentary Week of January 26, 2015 KEY TAKEAWAYS The latest leg up for the U.S. dollar has

More information

High Yield Fixed Income Credit Outlook

High Yield Fixed Income Credit Outlook High Yield Fixed Income Credit Outlook Brendan White, CFA Portfolio Manager, Touchstone High Yield Fund Fort Washington Investment Advisors, Inc. September 28, 2011 The opinions expressed are current as

More information

Intelligent Systematic Value Investing

Intelligent Systematic Value Investing Intelligent Systematic Value Investing 2 ND Quarter 2015 Overview of the Markets Contents: A NEWSLETTER FOR OUR CLIENTS Investment Overview Required Disclosures GIPS Compliant Performance Reports Global

More information

Fund commentary. John Hancock Lifestyle Portfolios Q1 2016

Fund commentary. John Hancock Lifestyle Portfolios Q1 2016 Fund commentary John Hancock Lifestyle Portfolios Seek: Long-term growth of capital or a balance between a high level of current income and growth of capital Use for: Broadly diversified, risk-targeted

More information

Fixed Income in a Rising Rate Environment

Fixed Income in a Rising Rate Environment Fixed Income in a Rising Rate Environment Market Commentary May 2016 SINCE THE FIRST FEDERAL FUNDS RATE INCREASE IN DECEMBER 2015, interest rates have generally declined. This counterintuitive result underscores

More information

Balanced Fund RPBAX. T. Rowe Price SUMMARY PROSPECTUS

Balanced Fund RPBAX. T. Rowe Price SUMMARY PROSPECTUS SUMMARY PROSPECTUS RPBAX May 1, 2016 T. Rowe Price Balanced Fund A fund seeking capital growth and current income through a portfolio of approximately 65% stocks and 35% fixed income securities. Before

More information

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Drawing upon different drivers for performance, Asia fixed income may improve risk-return

More information

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW Q4 2011

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW Q4 2011 CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW Q4 2011 Reviewing the quarter ended September 30, 2011 J. Matthew Hager // David S. Dennerll, CFP // Benjamin R. Stacy 255 East Fifth St. Suite 2210 // Cincinnati, OH 45202 513-287-6778

More information

Bond Market Insights July 15, 2015

Bond Market Insights July 15, 2015 Bond Market Insights July 15, 2015 by Jerry Wiesner, CFA and Stephen Frahm General Bond Market Treasury yields rose during the second quarter as prices fell. The yield curve steepened, as long yields rose

More information

Fixed Income: The Hidden Risk of Indexing

Fixed Income: The Hidden Risk of Indexing MANNING & NAPIER ADVISORS, INC. Fixed Income: The Hidden Risk of Indexing Unless otherwise noted, all figures are based in USD. Fixed income markets in the U.S. are vast. At roughly twice the size of domestic

More information

QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE December 31, 2015 Quarterly Market Perspectives Global equity markets staged an impressive rally from their late summer swoon across the first two months of the quarter ended

More information

THE DOLLAR S RIPPLE EFFECT

THE DOLLAR S RIPPLE EFFECT LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS Using intermarket analysis is important to reduce the risk of missing vital directional clues within the financial markets. Recently, a strong U.S. dollar

More information

Today s bond market is riskier and more volatile than in several generations. As

Today s bond market is riskier and more volatile than in several generations. As Fixed Income Approach 2014 Volume 1 Executive Summary Today s bond market is riskier and more volatile than in several generations. As interest rates rise so does the anxiety of fixed income investors

More information

Capital Markets Review Q3 2010

Capital Markets Review Q3 2010 Capital Markets Review Q3 2010 Reviewing the quarter ended June 30, 2010 Ross Marino, CFP, ChFC 210-4 Avondale Ave. Wilmington, NC 28403 www.rossmarino.com Material prepared by Raymond James for use by

More information

Fixed Income Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Fixed Income Asset Allocation j a n n e y fixed income strat e g y Our three-pronged approach to 2015 portfolio construction has run its course, with value today found in securitized products and preferreds.

More information

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs):

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): Frequently Asked Questions Yorkville Capital Management LLC www.yorkvillecapital.com 950 Third Avenue, 23 rd Floor New York, NY 10022 (212) 755-1970 Table of Contents

More information

The Black Widow Returns

The Black Widow Returns JULY 2015 UNCERTAINTY = OPPORTUNITY The Black Widow Returns Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer Richard Bernstein Advisors Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA) is an independent

More information

High Yield Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment August 2014

High Yield Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment August 2014 This paper examines the impact rising rates are likely to have on high yield bond performance. We conclude that while a rising rate environment would detract from high yield returns, historically returns

More information

A Solution for Yield-Starved Insurance Companies: Dividend Equities

A Solution for Yield-Starved Insurance Companies: Dividend Equities August 2015 A Solution for Yield-Starved Insurance Companies: Dividend Equities Federal Reserve efforts to normalize monetary policy are unlikely to provide meaningful relief for yield-starved insurance

More information

MLC Investment Management. Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment. August 2010

MLC Investment Management. Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment. August 2010 Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment August 2010 Stuart Piper Portfolio Manager MLC Investment Management For Adviser Use Only 1 Important Information: This Information

More information

CALVERT UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND A More Expansive Approach to Fixed-Income Investing

CALVERT UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND A More Expansive Approach to Fixed-Income Investing CALVERT UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND A More Expansive Approach to Fixed-Income Investing A Challenging Environment for Investors MOVING BEYOND TRADITIONAL FIXED-INCOME INVESTING ALONE For many advisors and

More information

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:

More information

Portfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010

Portfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010 Portfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010 We are pleased to introduce Portfolio Review, a new quarterly report on Portfolio Series. 3 Portfolio Series Income Fund 7 Portfolio Series Conservative

More information

Fixed Income Asset Allocation

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Fixed Income Asset Allocation j a n n e y fixed income strat e g y While 2015 finished off with big spread widening in high yield, strong performance of our favorite sector, munis, overwhelmed losses in

More information

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW 2 nd Quarter 2015 June 30, 2015

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW 2 nd Quarter 2015 June 30, 2015 June 30, 2015 OVERVIEW Market activity in the second quarter of 2015 saw the reversal of several major trends. First, U.S. Dollar strength dissipated to a degree, as it sold off almost 3% relative to other

More information

Master Limited Partnerships: Investing in Energy Infrastructure

Master Limited Partnerships: Investing in Energy Infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships: Investing in Energy Infrastructure May 2011 www.clearbridgeadvisors.com Executive Summary The number of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) in the energy sector has grown rapidly

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Unconstrained Fixed Income

Unconstrained Fixed Income Unconstrained Fixed Income A Dynamic and Flexible Approach to Fixed Income Investing 26th ANNUAL TEXPERS CONFERENCE Global Fixed Income & Liquidity Management March 2015 This material is provided for educational

More information

T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2030 Fund Advisor Class

T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2030 Fund Advisor Class T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2030 Fund Advisor Class Supplement to Summary Prospectus Dated October 1, 2015 Effective February 1, 2016, the T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Index Fund and the T. Rowe Price Small-Cap

More information

The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong

The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong Investment Insights The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong Kevin Lorenz, CFA, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager of TIAA-CREF's High-Yield Fund

More information

2015 TEN-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

2015 TEN-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 2015 TEN-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2015 vs. 2014 Assumptions 2 Summary & Highlights 2 Creating Arithmetic Returns 3 Creating Geometric Returns 3 Detailed Assumptions Appendix PENSION

More information

Bond Outlook. Third Quarter 2014. Waiting on the Fed. 10-Year Treasury Yields. Treasury Bonds. Break-even Inflation Rate

Bond Outlook. Third Quarter 2014. Waiting on the Fed. 10-Year Treasury Yields. Treasury Bonds. Break-even Inflation Rate Third Quarter 21 Waiting on the Fed Despite a strong rebound in domestic economic activity with gross domestic production accelerating toward %, persistent low inflationary pressures and dramatically lower

More information

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Peter R. Duffy, CFA, Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager Navy Yard Corporate Center, Three Crescent Drive, Suite 400, Philadelphia, PA 19112 www.penncapital.com 1 What

More information

Global Bond Fund FAQ April 2016

Global Bond Fund FAQ April 2016 April 2016 333 S. Grand Ave., 18th Floor Los Angeles, CA 90071 (213) 633-8200 1. What is the investment objective of the DoubleLine s Global Bond Fund? The DoubleLine Global Bond Fund seeks to generate

More information

International Equities: Another Turn of the Wheel

International Equities: Another Turn of the Wheel International Equities: Another Turn of the Wheel May 6, 2015 by David Ruff of Forward Investing Non-U.S. equities have recently surged after a long spell of underperformance. Does this signal a new market

More information

M&G Corporate Bond Fund

M&G Corporate Bond Fund Quarterly Review M&G Corporate Bond Fund Third quarter 2015 Fund manager Richard Woolnough Overview A general risk-off tone prevailed in the third quarter amid significant volatility in risk markets, driving

More information

Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013

Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013 Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013 02 of 08 Global high yield: we believe it s still offering value Patrick Maldari, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager North American Fixed

More information

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views

More information

Mawer Canadian Bond Fund. Interim Management Report of Fund Performance

Mawer Canadian Bond Fund. Interim Management Report of Fund Performance Interim Management Report of Fund Performance For the Period Ended June 30, 2015 This interim management report of fund performance contains financial highlights but does not contain either interim or

More information

Investing in a 3-D World

Investing in a 3-D World Investing in a 3-D World February 10, 2016 by Bill Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors Executive Summary Slowing growth and swelling corporate debt are expected to result in challenges in the coming quarters.

More information

Stocks Fall on Worries about Global Slowdown, Fed Uncertainty. Could this be the end of the bull market? September Fed Decision Dominates the Quarter

Stocks Fall on Worries about Global Slowdown, Fed Uncertainty. Could this be the end of the bull market? September Fed Decision Dominates the Quarter INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT UPDATE A QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER FROM BREMER ASSET MANAGEMENT 4th 2015 Stocks Fall on Worries about Global Slowdown, Fed Uncertainty Could this be the end of the bull market? September

More information

State Street Target Retirement Funds - Class K

State Street Target Retirement Funds - Class K The State Street Target Retirement Funds - Class K (the "Funds") represent units of ownership in the State Street Target Retirement Non-Lending Series Funds. The Funds seek to offer complete, low cost

More information

Perspective. Economic and Market. The U.S. Stock Market Resides at a Unique Global Zip Code. U.S. stock market diverges

Perspective. Economic and Market. The U.S. Stock Market Resides at a Unique Global Zip Code. U.S. stock market diverges Wells Capital Management Economic and Market Perspective November 13, 2015 Bringing you national and global economic trends for more than 30 years The U.S. Stock Market Resides at a Unique Global Zip Code

More information

Fixed Income Liquidity in a Rising Rate Environment

Fixed Income Liquidity in a Rising Rate Environment Fixed Income Liquidity in a Rising Rate Environment 2 Executive Summary Ò Fixed income market liquidity has declined, causing greater concern about prospective liquidity in a potential broad market sell-off

More information

FIXED INCOME INVESTORS HAVE OPTIONS TO INCREASE RETURNS, LOWER RISK

FIXED INCOME INVESTORS HAVE OPTIONS TO INCREASE RETURNS, LOWER RISK 1 FIXED INCOME INVESTORS HAVE OPTIONS TO INCREASE RETURNS, LOWER RISK By Michael McMurray, CFA Senior Consultant As all investors are aware, fixed income yields and overall returns generally have been

More information

Finding Income in a Low Rate World

Finding Income in a Low Rate World Finding in a Low Rate World Executive Summary Historically low interest rates have left investors starved for income. Investors who want higher income may be willing to diversify but aren t sure how to

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Jun 20, 2014 MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Improving Job Market, Weak Housing Market, Lower Mortgage Originations MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: June 2014 Key highlights

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING

INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING J U N E 3 0, 2 0 1 4 Copyright 2014 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Lord Abbett mutual fund shares are distributed by Lord Abbett Distributor LLC.

More information

Wright State University Investment Fund Combined

Wright State University Investment Fund Combined Wright State University Investment Fund Combined Your Client Portfolio Management Team: John Cavaliere Client Portfolio Manager +1 (610) 676-2614 JPCavaliere@seic.com Lisa Herzog CAIA Client Service Director

More information

Prospectus Socially Responsible Funds

Prospectus Socially Responsible Funds Prospectus Socially Responsible Funds Calvert Social Investment Fund (CSIF) Balanced Portfolio Equity Portfolio Enhanced Equity Portfolio Bond Portfolio Money Market Portfolio Calvert Social Index Fund

More information

10-Year Capital Market Return Assumptions

10-Year Capital Market Return Assumptions BNY MELLON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 10-Year Capital Market Return Assumptions Calendar Year 2015 BNY Mellon Investment Strategy & Solutions Group (ISSG) ISSG partners with clients to develop thoughtful and

More information

Global bond investing

Global bond investing Global bond investing Todd Schlanger, CFA Investment Strategy Group Vanguard Asset Management, Limited This document is directed at professional investors and should not be distributed to, or relied upon

More information

SACRS Fall Conference 2013

SACRS Fall Conference 2013 SACRS Fall Conference 2013 Bank Loans November 14, 2013 Allan Martin, Partner What Are Floating Rate Bank Loans? Senior secured floating rate debt: Current Typical Terms: Spread: LIBOR + 5.00%-6.00% LIBOR

More information

Fixed Income Market Comments

Fixed Income Market Comments Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Weaker economic data and comments from a couple of Federal Reserve Board Governors, who tend to not to speak often as the Federal Reserve District

More information

Energizing High Yield Bond Investors: Finding Opportunities Amid Shifting Market Conditions

Energizing High Yield Bond Investors: Finding Opportunities Amid Shifting Market Conditions Energizing High Yield Bond Investors: Finding Opportunities Amid Shifting Market Conditions Energizing High Yield Bond Investors: Finding Opportunities Amid Shifting Market Conditions Contents Executive

More information

Absolute return strategies offer modern diversification

Absolute return strategies offer modern diversification February 2015» White paper Absolute return strategies offer modern diversification Key takeaways Absolute return differs from traditional stock and bond investing. Absolute return seeks to reduce market

More information

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee

More information

Sprott Enhanced Equity Strategy December 2015 Commentary

Sprott Enhanced Equity Strategy December 2015 Commentary Major North American indices finished December in the red after a volatile trading month with the S&P TSX and S&P 00 Total Return Index down.% and.6%, respectively. As we start 06, major market indices

More information

The Yield Curve, Stocks, and Interest Rates

The Yield Curve, Stocks, and Interest Rates The Yield Curve, Stocks, and Interest Rates The Yield Curve as of 6/26/09 (from Bloomberg.com): Bonds with identical risk, liquidity, and tax characteristics have different interest rates based on time

More information