Economic & Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Monthly Portfolio Commentary December 31, 2015 Economic & Market Outlook Stocks rebounded in 2015 s fourth quarter, but provided little reward for the year as a whole. The S&P 500 Index recovered from a third-quarter correction spawned by fears that China s slowdown would significantly dampen global growth. But despite the S&P 500 s 7.0% fourth-quarter gain, investors were still left with a paltry 1.4% return for U.S. small-cap stocks moved in a similar fashion, but the Russell 2000 Index s 3.6% fourth-quarter rebound wasn t enough to offset its third-quarter losses; the small-cap index thus finished with a -4.4% return for Foreign developed markets struggled as well. The MSCI EAFE Index of non-u.s. developed-market stocks slipped 0.8% over the year in U.S. dollar terms. Japanese stocks finished the year strongly with the MSCI Japan Index posting a 9.6% 12-month gain, fueled in part by aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. But Europe proved to be a less attractive destination. The European Central Bank s stimulus efforts kindled only modest stock-market gains in local currency terms and those were erased for U.S. investors by the euro s depreciation against the dollar. Global growth remained muted overall, prompting the International Monetary Fund to ratchet down its 2015 GDP growth forecast in advanced economies to a meager 2.0%. Last year s challenges in developed markets paled in comparison to those faced by many emerging-market countries. Falling commodity prices helped send Brazil and Russia into recession. Oil prices sunk from more than $100 per barrel to less than $40 in the past 18 months. Indeed, lower demand from China has caused prices to fall for many industrial commodities, which has hit emerging markets the hardest. As a result, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 14.9% in Bond investors spent much of 2015 worried about the timing and severity of interest-rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but the Fed didn t raise the federal funds rate until December and the 0.25% increase was so well telegraphed that bond markets yawned at the long-awaited change. The 10-year Treasury yield finished 2015 at 2.27%, just 0.10 percentage points higher than at the end of The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index ended the year with a 0.6% gain, providing some stability to investor s portfolios. The expectation of rising defaults in the energy sector hurt returns for credit-sensitive bonds, causing the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index to fall 4.5%. Market Index Total s (period through December 2015) October November December 3 Month 6 Month S&P 500 TR USD Russell 3000 TR USD Russell Top 200 Growth TR USD Russell Top 200 Value TR USD Russell Mid Cap Growth TR USD Russell Mid Cap Value TR USD Russell 2000 Growth TR USD Russell 2000 Value TR USD FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed TR USD MSCI EAFE NR USD MSCI EAFE Small Cap NR USD MSCI EM NR USD Citi WGBI NonUSD Hdg USD JPM EMBI Plus TR USD Barclays US Corporate High Yield TR USD Barclays Gbl Infl Linked US TIPS TR USD Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD Barclays 1-3 Yr US Treasury TR USD Bloomberg Commodity TR USD Year Indexes shown are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Source: Morningstar Direct SM

2 Portfolio Positioning Stock price momentum is one of the quantitative metrics we monitor and factor into our models. Stock price momentum turned negative during the second half of the third quarter of 2015, which led us to reduce our equity allocation at the September and October updates. Equity markets rallied through the end of October which caused momentum signals to turn positive. The October uptrend in momentum quickly faded due to global economic concerns and ultimately negative U.S. market sentiment which produced broadly negative stock and bond returns in December. The fundamental valuation component of our overlay model has not changed since February of 2015, where we reallocated a small percentage of our REIT position to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Our fundamental valuation research reflects that U.S. equity valuations remain at elevated levels relative to longer-term averages. Of our equity exposures, developed international and emerging market stocks show favorable valuations relative to U.S. stocks. However, the negative intra-asset momentum had recently kept us from adding to the current overweight positions. Typically, the factor components of our quantitative model, price momentum and equity valuations, tend to pull in opposite directions after large declines in equity prices. As price momentum signals to exit equity, the valuation component normally wants to add equity since valuations become more compelling at the lower price levels. Still, the current valuation components in our models are not favorable enough to offset the mostly negative price momentum across most equity asset classes. As a result, our models are producing a net signal to keep an underweight to equities in favor of fixed-income assets. Based on this, we reduced our equity allocation at the October update by an additional 0.75% to 2.5% from September, and reallocated it to fixed income across the five models in the Series. When the momentum factor turned positive in December based on the favorable October and November equity returns, we reallocated a small percentage back to U.S. large cap from emerging market debt and U.S. aggregate bonds in mid-january, Among fixed-income asset classes in general, we are maintaining our defensive positioning. In aggregate, we uphold our overweight to short-term bonds and our underweight to long-term bonds. We are also retaining our underweight across all fixed-income asset classes except short-term bonds, TIPS, and emerging-market bonds. Our bond analysis continues to favor TIPS, as they appear relatively attractive based on prevailing yields versus U.S. government securities with similar maturities. Though high-yield bond spreads have widened over the last few months, making these bonds relatively more attractive, we still hold an underweight position due to historically-low current yields and still-narrow spreads. We continue to monitor yields, spreads, and momentum within high-yield for a potential return to a neutral weighting within the models. Dynamic Model: Overall Equity Exposure Higher Bonds Neutral High Stocks Dynamic Model: Overall Market Cap Positioning Higher Large Cap Neutral Higher Small Cap Dynamic Model: Overall Style of Investing Higher Value Neutral Higher Growth Dynamic Model: Overall Country Exposure Higher US Exposure Neutral Higher Non-US Dynamic Model: Overall Fixed Income Credit Quality Higher Credit Quality Neutral Lower Credit Quality Dynamic Model: Overall Interest Rate Sensitivity Higher Interest Rate Sensitivity Neutral Lower Interest Rate Sensitivity The above information is meant to illustrate how the current Ibbotson Dynamic strategy is currently positioned. The positioning shown above is implemented differently for each of the five Models that make up the Dynamic Series.

3 Model I - Conservative Strategic 1 Large Cap Growth Stocks 5.25% 0.25% 0.250% Large Cap Value Stocks 5.00% 0.25% 0.000% 0 3 Mid Cap Growth Stocks 1.25% 0.00% % Mid Cap Value Stocks 1.00% 0.00% % Small Cap Growth Stocks 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% Small Cap Value Stocks 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 7 Domestic REITs 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% International Stocks 5.50% 0.00% 0.500% International Small Cap Stocks 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% Emerging Market Stocks 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 11 High Yield Bonds 6.50% 0.00% % TIPS 8.50% 0.00% 0.500% Emerging Market Bonds 8.00% -0.25% 0.000% International Bonds (Hedged) 5.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 15 Aggregate Bonds 21.25% -0.25% % Short-Term Bonds 26.25% 0.00% 1.250% Cash Equivalents 5.00% 0.00% 0.000% Commodities 1.50% 0.00% % -0.5 Total Equity: 19.50% 0.50% -0.50% Total Fixed Income: 80.50% -0.50% 0.50% Model II - Income & Growth Strategic Large Cap Growth Stocks 9.00% 0.50% 0.500% Large Cap Value Stocks 8.50% 0.25% 0.000% 0 3 Mid Cap Growth Stocks 2.75% 0.00% % Mid Cap Value Stocks 2.50% 0.00% % Small Cap Growth Stocks 1.00% 0.00% % Small Cap Value Stocks 0.75% 0.00% % Domestic REITs 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% International Stocks 7.75% 0.00% 0.750% International Small Cap Stocks 2.00% 0.00% 0.000% Emerging Market Stocks 2.50% 0.00% 0.500% High Yield Bonds 5.25% 0.00% % TIP S 7.00% 0.00% 1.000% 1 13 Emerging Market Bonds 6.25% -0.25% 0.250% International Bonds (Hedged) 4.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 15 Aggregate Bonds 19.00% -0.50% % Short-Term Bonds 16.50% 0.00% 1.500% Cash Equivalents 3.00% 0.00% 0.000% Commodities 2.25% 0.00% % Total Equity: 39.00% 0.75% -1.00% Total Fixed Income: 61.00% -0.75% 1.00%

4 Model III - Balanced Strategic Large Cap Growth Stocks 10.75% 0.75% 0.750% Large Cap Value Stocks 10.00% 0.25% 0.000% 0 3 Mid Cap Growth Stocks 4.75% 0.00% % Mid Cap Value Stocks 4.25% 0.00% % Small Cap Growth Stocks 3.00% 0.00% % Small Cap Value Stocks 2.75% 0.00% % Domestic REITs 2.00% 0.00% % International Stocks 11.00% 0.25% 1.000% 1 9 International Small Cap Stocks 3.00% 0.00% 0.000% Emerging Market Stocks 4.75% 0.00% 0.750% High Yield Bonds 4.25% 0.00% % TIPS 5.25% 0.00% 1.250% Emerging Market Bonds 4.25% -0.50% 0.250% International Bonds (Hedged) 3.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 15 Aggregate Bonds 15.75% -0.75% % Short-Term Bonds 7.00% 0.00% 2.000% 2 17 Cash Equivalents 2.00% 0.00% 0.000% Commodities 2.25% 0.00% % Total Equity: 65.50% 1.25% -1.50% Total Fixed Income: 34.50% -1.25% 1.50% Model IV - Growth Strategic Large Cap Growth Stocks 12.75% 0.75% 0.750% Large Cap Value Stocks 12.00% 0.25% 0.000% 0 3 Mid Cap Growth Stocks 6.75% 0.00% % Mid Cap Value Stocks 6.25% 0.00% % Small Cap Growth Stocks 4.25% 0.00% % Small Cap Value Stocks 4.25% 0.00% % Domestic REITs 2.75% 0.00% % International Stocks 15.00% 0.00% 1.000% 1 9 International Small Cap Stocks 4.00% 0.00% 0.000% Emerging Market Stocks 7.00% 0.25% 1.000% 1 11 High Yield Bonds 1.25% 0.00% % TIPS 1.25% 0.00% 1.250% Emerging Market Bonds 2.25% -0.50% 0.250% International Bonds (Hedged) 2.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 15 Aggregate Bonds 9.75% -0.75% % Short-Term Bonds 5.50% 0.00% 2.500% Cash Equivalents 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% Commodities 3.00% 0.00% % -1 Total Equity: 85.75% 1.25% -2.00% Total Fixed Income: 14.25% -1.25% 2.00%

5 Model V - Aggressive Growth Strategic Large Cap Growth Stocks 13.50% 1.00% 1.000% Large Cap Value Stocks 12.50% 0.50% 0.000% 0 3 Mid Cap Growth Stocks 7.50% 0.00% % Mid Cap Value Stocks 7.25% 0.25% % Small Cap Growth Stocks 5.00% 0.00% % Small Cap Value Stocks 5.00% 0.00% % -1 7 Domestic REITs 3.50% 0.00% % International Stocks 17.00% 0.00% 1.000% 1 9 International Small Cap Stocks 5.00% 0.00% 0.000% Emerging Market Stocks 8.00% 0.00% 1.000% 1 11 High Yield Bonds 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% TIPS 1.50% 0.00% 1.500% Emerging Market Bonds 0.25% -0.75% 0.250% International Bonds (Hedged) 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% 0 15 Aggregate Bonds 8.25% -1.00% % Short-Term Bonds 2.75% 0.00% 2.750% Cash Equivalents 0.00% 0.00% 0.000% Commodities 3.00% 0.00% % -1 Total Equity: 97.00% 1.75% -2.75% Total Fixed Income: 3.00% -1.75% 2.75%

6 APPENDIX: DEFINITIONS Barclays 1-3 Yr US Treasury Index: an unmanaged index of public U.S. Treasury obligations with remaining maturities of one to three years. Barclays Global Inflation Linked US Treasury Inflation Protection Securities Index: measures the performance of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ( TIPS ) market. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: a market capitalization-weighted index, meaning the securities in the index are weighted according to the market size of each bond type. Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index: composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt. Barclays U.S. Government/Credit Bond Index is composed of all bonds that are of investment grade with at least one year until maturity. Bloomberg Commodity Index: a broadly diversified index that allows investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX): A mathematical measure of how much the market thinks the S&P 100 Index option, or OEX, will fluctuate over the next 12 months, based upon an analysis of the difference between current OEX put and call option prices. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index: designed to measure the stock performance of companies engaged in specific real estate activities of the North American, European and Asian real estate markets. JPM Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus: a set of three bond indices to track bonds in emerging markets operated by J P Morgan. The indices are the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus, the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global and the Emerging Markets Bond Global Diversified Index. MSCI EAFE Index: a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. & Canada. MSCI Emerging Markets Index: designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. Russell 2000 Growth Index: measures the performance of the small-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. Russell 2000 Value Index: measures the performance of small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. Russell 3000 Index: A market capitalization weighted equity index maintained by the Russell Investment Group that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. Russell Mid Cap Growth Index: measures the performance of the mid-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. Russell Mid Cap Value Index: A market capitalization weighted index representing the smallest 800 companies in the Russell 1000 Index. Russell Top 200 Growth Index: measures the performance of the especially large cap segment of the U.S. equity universe represented by stocks in the largest 200 by market cap. Russell Top 200 Value Index: measures the performance of the especially large cap segment of the U.S. equity universe represented by stocks in the largest 200 by market cap that exhibit value characteristics. Standard & Poor s 500 Index: an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping among other factors. One cannot invest directly in an index. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES The information, data, analyses and opinions presented in this commentary do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes; and, therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a particular security. The data and/or information noted are from what we believe to be reliable sources; however, Ibbotson Associates, Inc. has no control over the methods or means used to collect the data and/or information and therefore cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and estimates noted are as of a certain date and subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful investing. Asset allocation and diversification do not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses. Ibbotson Associates, Inc. ( Ibbotson Associates ) is a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. Ibbotson Associates acts as a sub-adviser to ALPS Advisors, Inc. ( ALPS ) by providing recommendations to ALPS regarding asset allocation targets and selection of securities appropriate for the Ibbotson ETF Allocation Series. Ibbotson Associates selects securities for Ibbotson ETF Allocation Series from the universe of investments made available through ALPS. Ibbotson Associates is not acting in the capacity of advisor to individual clients. Asset Allocation target allocations are subject to change without notice. Ibbotson Associates establishes the allocations using its proprietary asset classifications. If alternative classification methods are used, the allocations may not meet the asset allocation targets. Ibbotson Associates is not affiliated with ALPS Advisors, Inc. An investment in the Portfolios involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation cannot assure a profit nor protect against a loss. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus, which contains this and other information, please contact your investment professional. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Shares of the Portfolios are offered only to participating insurance companies and their separate accounts to fund the benefits of Variable Contracts, and to qualified pension and retirement plans and registered and unregistered separate accounts. The Portfolio allocates investments among multiple ETF asset classes including: U.S. equity, fixed income, real estate and international ETFs. Asset allocation does not assure a profit or protect against down markets. The stocks of smaller companies are subject to above-average market-price fluctuations. There are specific risks associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxation, differences in financial reporting practices and rapid changes in political and economic conditions. Real estate investments are subject to specific risks, such as risks related to general and local economic conditions and risks related to individual properties. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk, prepayment risk and market risk. Commodity trading is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Ibbotson ETF Allocation Series Portfolios are distributed by ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. does not distribute the underlying ETF within the portfolios. ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. is not affiliated with Ibbotson Associates Ibbotson Associates. All rights reserved. Ibbotson Associates is a registered investment advisor and a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. Ibbotson and the Ibbotson logo are either trademarks or service marks of Ibbotson Associates. FIV /29/16