A multi-satellite and modeling analysis on US wildfires

Transcription

1 A multi-satellite and modeling analysis on US wildfires Maria Val Martin, Bonne Ford and Tony Prenni(CSU) Colette Heald(MIT (MIT), Ralph Kahn (NASA) C. Wiedinmyer, J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Research funded by US NPS and NASA

2 MANY FIRES BURNED IN COLORADO IN JUNE

3 HIGH PARK FIRE AFFECTED VISIBILITY IN FORT COLLINS

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5 FIRE SMOKE AFFECTS HUMAN HEALTH Asthma doctor s visits correlate well with PM10 Henderson et al, ,000 deaths annually due to smoke exposure Johnston et al, 2012

6 INCREASING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AMERICA Area burned in Canada has increased since 1960 Guillet et al, 2004 Increased fire frequency over western U.S. since last decades Westerling et al., 2007

7 AND IT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE FUTURE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Projected biomass burned Present-day % increased biomass burned by 2050 Predicted length of fire season Fire season may be 23 days longer in 2050 Yueet al, 2012

8 IMPORTANT EFFECTS FOR AIR QUALITY AND HAZE Changes in OC Changes in BC Increased area burned may result in ~150% increase in BC and OC fire emissions Daily avg BC at the RMNP (May-Oct ) (due to fires) Visibility at the National Parks may be affected Yueet al, 2012

9 THE OBJECTIVE IS TO INVESTIGATE THE IMPORTANCE OF FIRES OVER WESTERN US AND UNDERSTAND LINKS TO AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH IMPACTS OUTLINE 1. Overview of satellite platforms and CESM 2. Fires over western US, air quality impacts and link to health 3. Physical parameters to constrain fire smoke injection heights 4. Changes in future air quality resulting from fires, anthropogenic and land cover-use changes 5. Future nitrogen deposition over the US 6. Future work

10 MODIS and MISR aboard NASA Terra Satellite MISR: Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer 9 angles allow height retrievals 380 km wide swath 275 m vertical pixel resolution MODIS: Moderate resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer Observed active burning fires Retrievals of fire radiative power and AOD 2300 km wide swath 1 km resolution at nadir Over North America: 4-8 day coverage (MISR) 1-2 day coverage (MODIS) 11:00-13:45 local time

11 MINX (MIsr Interactive explorer) Tool: Combining MISR and MODIS Terra to derive smoke plume heights Smoke plume over central Alaska in June 2002 Cross-section of heights vs. distance from plume source (0-50 km) Histogram of heights From MISR: Injection height ~ 3 km; plume vertical extent ~1 km From MODIS: Fire Radiative Power = 2500 MW; Area = 50 ha Nelson et al. Proc. SPIE, 2008,

12 CALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidarwith Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Aerosol Extinction (532nm) 100 m footprint, 30 m vertical resolution Full global coverage ~16 days 1:30 AM/PM overpasses Level 2 Version km Aerosol Profiles

13 NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.1.0) CAM-Chem Chem 1.9x2.5 spatial resolution 26 vertical levels to ~3 hpa GHGs O 3 and PM Precursors IPCC scenarios and derived emissions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) 2000 and 2050 Coupler Land Model (CLM 4) Prescribed sea-ice and ocean data (e.g., SST and sea-ice fraction) Land cover/use data (e.g., LAI, PFTs, etc)

14 2002 AND 2012 LARGEST AREA BURNED IN COLORADO DUE TO EXTREME DROUGHT Area burned correlates well with drought severity Area Burned (Ha) 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Area Burned D3-D4 Drought Code D3-D4 Drought Code

15 ARE 2002 AND 2012 YEARS WITH THE LARGEST AOD LEVELS DUE TO SMOKE? MODIS Terra AOD May-September climatology ( ) , Val Martin et al., in prep

16 LARGE AOD LEVELS IN 2012 ARE DUE TO SMOKE CALIOP May-September extinction coefficient over Colorado JUNE AUGUST Avg May-Sept Extinction DUST CLEAN/CONTINENTAL DUST/POLLUTED SMOKE

17 IN 2002, LARGEST AOD ANOMALY IN JUNE AND JULY ARE MAINLY DUE TO LOCAL FIRES JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

18 IN 2012, LARGEST AOD ANOMALY IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER DUE TO OUT-OF OF-STATE FIRES JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

19 RECORD AODs OVER THE FRONT RANGE ARE TYPICALLY DUE TO OUT-OF OF-STATE FIRES AZ Wallow Fire (2011) High Park and Waldo Fires Hayman Fire AZ, CA Fires MT, WY, ID, WA Fires CA Station Fire (2009)

20 LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF SMOKE TO COLORADO IS A COMMON PHENOMENON Smoke from the AZ Wallow fire (2011) crosses Colorado Smoke from the CA Station fire (2009) reaches Colorado

21 HIGH SURFACE PM 2.5 OVER THE FRONT RANGE IS DUE MAINLY TO FIRE SMOKE Average daily (and hourly) PM 2.5 from 9 CODPHE sites

22 IMPORTANT ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS IN FORT COLLINS DURING THE HIGH PARK FIRE 35 ug/m 3 NAAQS 35 ug/m 3 NAAQS

23 AND ALL OVER COLORADO

24 HIGH PARK FIRE SMOKE WAS TYPICALLY INJECTED AT 5 KM ALTITUDE, YET IT REACHED GROUND LEVEL SMOKE PLUMES SMOKE CLOUDS Fort Collins Altitude North America MISR Plume Height Climatology 95% 67% Average Median 33% 5% Val Martin et al, 2010

25 Smoke Plume on June 9, 2011 Smoke Cloud on June 11, 2011 Smoke Plume on June 25, 2011

26 Fire smoke heights with a 1-D plume-rise model Convective zone Atmospheric interaction Pyroconvection (latent heat) Wind Drag PBL GEOS-5 R Convective Flux entrainment Plume Rise Model (Freitas Freitaset et al 2010) Combustion Zone Vegetation Fuel Moisture (FWI) Total Fire Heat Flux Active Fire Area Courtesy of R. Paugam

27 Evaluation of a 1D plume-rise model: Towards a parameterization of smoke injection heights Heat Flux Options Active Fire Area Options 1-D Plume-rise model heights vs. MISR-observed max. plume heights -- Models have lower dynamic range than observed, but very variable Val Martin et al., 2012

28 Evaluation of a 1D plume-rise model: Towards a parameterization of smoke injection heights Plume height increases systematically as FRPincreases and Atmospheric Stability decreases The key factors: Fire Energy (fire area; heat flux, FRP) Atmospheric Stability Entrainment Val Martin et al., 2012

29 NEW IPCC PROJECTS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS, CLIMATE AND LAND COVER U.S. Anthro Emissions (Tg Species/year) RCP RCP 8.5 Main GHGs 5 0 BC OC SO2 0.1xCO NO NH3 % change in Trees and Crops (RCP4.5)

30 IPCC SCENARIOS PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN PM2.5 Annual Average PM2.5 Present Day RCP RCP RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 Val Martin et al., in prep

31 CHANGES IN PM 2.5 ARE MAINLY DUE TO SO 2 and NO x EMISSION REDUCTIONS Annual Changes in PM 2.5 Chemical Speciation 2.5 East US West US

32 IPCC SCENARIOS UNDERPREDICT CHANGES IN BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS OVER THE US Gg species/yr BC CO NO OC Fire emissions will increase ~60% (RCP4.5) and ~15% (RCP8.5) by (RCP8.5) 2050 (RCP4.5) Projected annual total biomass burned Increased fires may result in ~150% increase in BC and OC fire emissions Yueet al, 2012

33 INCREASED SUMMER PM 2.5 DUE TO PREDICTED CHANGES IN FIRE EMISSIONS Changes in summer PM 2.5 from fires alone (RCP 4.5) PM2.5 PM2.5 Fires Future PM 2.5 may stay constant over western US due to increased fire activity!

34 PM2.5 (ug/m3) FUTURE AIR QUALITY AND HAZE MAY BE IMPACTED IN SOME U.S. PARKS Glacier NP Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Changes in PM 2.5 (RCP 4.5+Fires) PM2.5 (ug/m3) Rocky Mountain NP Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul Aug SepOct NovDec PM2.5 (ug/m3) Acadia NP Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

35 CHANGES IN TOTAL N EMISSIONS (NOX+NH3) OVER THE US BY 2050 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP8.5

36 PRELIMINARY TOTAL N DEPOSITION (2000( )

37 FUTURE WORK Epidemiologic study on the effect of smoke fires over Colorado (NCAR project) Perform high resolution (50x50 km) simulations with CESM to focus on the air quality and haze over the US National Parks Study future changes in nitrogen deposition Better estimation of the effects of changing climate on fires and consequences for US air quality (pending funding proposal submitted today )