Colorado Front Range air quality 2014 AQAST update. David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO

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1 Colorado Front Range air quality 2014 AQAST update David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO

2 Air Quality and Health Impacts from the Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project In collaboration with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce and Jane Mitchell (CDPHE, Denver, CO) Yang Liu and Matthew Strickland (Emory University, GA) Colorado experienced one of its most costly and devastating fire seasons in 2012 Goal 1: Establish impacts of wildfires on Human health Epidemiological analysis based on hospital admissions and other health data Bring together air quality managers, health authorities and academic and agency scientists Goal 2: Quantify fire impact on AQ Provide material in support of exceedance demonstration

3 Fire Impact/Exposure Analysis Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations & AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure: Satellite Retrievals: MODIS, IASI, MOPITT, OMI Surface Obs: EPA, CASTNET, NOAA Modeling: WRF-Chem Epidemiological Study on Fire Impact Document fire contribution on AQ and support exceedance demonstration Evaluate effectiveness of current wildfire advisories Health Data provided by CDPHE Challenges: o o o o o Front Range - Complex topography and flow patterns Diverse sources (urban, agriculture, oil/gas, fires.) Long-range transport Fires: Highly variable source; localized impacts Limited set of observations for evaluation

4 WRF-Chem Modeling Numerous sets of simulations (12 km & 4 km) have been conducted testing different meteorology, emissions, physics schemes, etc. Meteorology o o Observation nudging and assimilation provide similar statistics, but neither fully capture the complex flow patterns Data assimilation provides a more balanced simulation and indicates slightly better agreement with observations, albeit computationally much more expensive for experimental runs Anthropogenic emissions: o Colorado specific only for 2008 and 2018: CDPHE 2008, AQMEII 2010, projected NEI 2011, NEI 2011, CDPHE 2018 Fire emissions: o o NCAR/FINN too low and area burned underestimated by factor 2 compared to independent data; improved with burned area calculations from SMARTFIRE Both estimates very different from NASA/QFED

5 Anthropogenic Emissions NO v v +22% +27% C 3 H 8 v Uintah Basin v Paradox Basin Piceance Basin Denver Basin -200% San Juan Basin +70% Colorado/CDPHE EI projected to 2018 / US EPA NEI 2011 / AQ Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII 2010)

6 Exceedance Demonstration Objective: Provide input to exceedance demonstration (package submitted to EPA within 3 years of events) Identified Ozone Events (compiled by CDPHE): 6/17/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 7/4/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/21/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/31/2012 Rocky Mountain NP Surface Monitors 6/17 Surface Rocky Mountain NP Observations WRF-Chem with QFED WRF-Chem no fires 7/4 6/17 7/4

7 CDPHE Identified Ozone Event 17 June 2012 High Park Fire

8 Event 17 June 2012 High Park Fire Daily 8-hour Max Ozone Daily Average PM2.5 WRF-Chem with QFED Fires WRF-Chem without Fires

9 Event 17 June 2012

10 Event 4 July 2012 Transport Denver Post, 5 July 2012

11 Event 4 July 2012 Transport CO Tropospheric Column Aerosol Optical Depth IASI MODIS MOPITT WRF-Chem

12 Event 4 July 2012 Transport Daily 8-hour Max Ozone Daily Average PM2.5 WRF-Chem with QFED Fires WRF-Chem without Fires

13 Health Study Yang Liu, Matt Strickland and Breanna Alman (Emory University) Explore the relationship of PM 2.5 with ED visits and acute hospitalizations for asthma and determine whether wildfire smoke was a contributing factor. Concentration-Response Association for PM2.5 and asthma visits (all ages) Conditional Logistic Regression inputs at 12 km x 12 km for 1 June 10 July, 2012 CDPHE/Colorado Hospital Association Hospitalization and Emergency Dept. Data CDPHE Hourly PM2.5 observations & WRF-Chem exposure modeling North American Land Data Assimilation System Temperature Data Increased PM 2.5 from fires resulted in an increase in asthma ED visits and acute hospitalizations One of the first studies to look at concentration-response effects of PM 2.5 over a long-lasting fire period, and one of the first to cover such a large geographic area

14 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), NASA Airborne Science Program, Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc., and many others! Objective: Characterize the factors driving summertime pollution High summertime ozone - non-attainment Complex topography and meteorology active photochemistry Diverse set of emission sources (urban, oil/gas, industrial, agriculture, biogenic, fires) Impact on downwind regions (central plains) Inflow from UT, WY, CA, and Asia

15 Picture Courtesy: James Crawford, NASA NASA P-3: Continuous mapping of aerosols (HSRL) and trace gas columns (ACAM) NASA B-200: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases over surface sites Ground: In situ trace gases and aerosols, Remote sensing of trace gas and aerosol columns, Ozonesondes, Aerosol lidar NASA Falcon: GEO-TASO

16 Tracer Forecast Oil and Gas Source Tracer NSF/NCAR C-130: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases Ground: In-situ chemistry and aerosols, tethered balloon, wind profilers, mobile vans, canisters, etc. Chemical Modeling: Forecasting and Analysis

17 Quantify sources and constrain inventories Transportation, Oil and Gas Extraction (-> AQAST Tiger Team), Power Generation, Agricultural activities, Vegetation Quantify the interaction and the overall impact of these emissions on local and regional AQ Air mass composition (organics, oxidants, NOx) Climate impact Ozone and oxidant formation Formation and evolution of particulates Mountain induced recirculation accumulation of pollutants Quantify import of larger scale emissions and impact on local AQ UT and WY oil and gas extraction and power generation, California, Asian emissions, potential wildfires Relate Surface AQ to satellite measurements Improve Meteorological and AQ Models Provide scientific basis for informed decision making Strong Education and Outreach Component

18

19

20

21 SCIAMACHY NO 2 Columns: May-Sep Dots: Oil and Gas Wells Si-Wan Kim, Gabrielle Petron, Gregory Frost, NOAA

22 CDPHE Oil and Gas Regulation Recent State rules expanded to include regulation of methane leaks CDPHE has an aggressive inspection and enforcement program, including: annual inspections of major (>100 tpy) sources 4 full time FLIR (infrared) camera inspectors inspection of exploration and production operations CDPHE s Oil and Gas team works collaboratively with other state, local and federal officials as well as scientific, community groups, etc. The O&G team welcomes appropriate calls and reports of major leaks, etc. that may be observed during the FRAPPE campaign All O&G operations required to post CDPHE identification numbers, permits, etc. on location at the site Over 51,000 active wells in Colorado Over 22,000 of these in the North Front Range Over 8000 condensate tanks Compressor stations, etc. 22 Courtesy: Gordon Pierce (CDPHE)

23 Concurrent with NASA DISCOVER-AQ 4 th Deployment National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NASA Airborne Science Program Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc., and others Characterize emissions from Oil & Gas (O&G) Operations on regional (aircraft) and local (mobile vans, surface stations) scales Distinguish methane from O&G from other sources (e.g. agriculture) using tracer correlations and methane isotopes Study transport of O&G emissions and mixing with pollution from other sources Relate FRAPPÉ results to previous U.S. wide studies Evaluate Satellite Methane Retrieval Products Link to ongoing projects: North Front Range Oil and Gas Air Pollutant Emissions and Dispersion Study (CSU) CU NSF AirWaterGas.org

24 Event 4 July 2012 Transport IASI CO Column IASI and MOPITT Images Past and in Near-Real time GOES Fire Detection

25 Fire Emissions FINN with Smartfire burned area NASA/QFED Daily Total NO x Emissions FINN June-July NO x Emissions QFED NOx emissions (moles/km2/day)

26 Event 4 July 2012 Transport Rocky Mountain National Park Rocky Flats

27 "July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO 2 in Colorado and other Western States (paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE) High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Observed Surface Ozone and 500mb Height Re-Analysis July Mean Daily Max 8-hr O3 in ppb Rocky Flats North Denver July Mean 500 mb Height in Meters R-Squared = 0.86 Analysis by Patrick Reddy

28 "July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO 2 in Colorado and other Western States (paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE) High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations Present Time Scenario Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

29 "July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO 2 in Colorado and other Western States (paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE) High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations 2050 Scenario Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

30 Current and Next Steps Proposal to BLM (declined) and NIH (to be submitted) for continuation of health study (multiple summers) Finalize set of model simulations and continue through August Compose documentation for exceedance demonstration by 2015 Results from FRAPPÉ are expected to provide important information on improving model simulations (emission constraints, data for evaluating and refining model configuration, etc.)

31 Workshop Presentations Air Quality and Oil & Gas Development in the Rocky Mountain Region Workshop, October 2013, Boulder CO: FRAPPÉ: The Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (G. Pfister) 2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop, July 2013, Boulder, CO: Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012 (G. Pfister) WESTAR Wildfire and Ozone Exceptional Events Meeting, Sacramento, CA, March 2013, Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012 (G. Pfister) Presentations and Outreach for FRAPPÉ (Media, AQ Organizations (APCD, RAQC,...), Industry (COGA, CO Energy Coalition,...), Non-profit groups (Rotary Club, Lung Association,...), etc

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