Adaptation and S us tai nability Issues of Global Warming Cons equences in Coas tal Bangladesh

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1 Salequzzaman, M.D., Stocker, L., Marinova, D. and Newman, P. (2003) Adaptation and sustainability issues of global warming consequences in coastal Bangladesh. In: International Sustainability Conference, September, Fremantle, Western Australia. Adaptation and S us tai nability Issues of Global Warming Cons equences in Coas tal Bangladesh Md. S alequzzaman, L aur a S tock er, Dora Mar i nova and Peter Newman I ns titute for Sustainability and T echnol ogy Policy Mur doch Univers ity

2 B ack gr ound ϖ Global warming and s ea l evel increase are r es ults from climate change. ϖ I ncr eas ed s ea l evel could i mpact low-lying coas tal areas, and s oci o-economic and cultur al activities. ϖ Gr eates t impact on poor coastal countries lack ing appr opr i ate mitigation meas ures or wher e adaptation is difficult.

3 Mitigation and adaptation ϖ Climate change mitigation = prevent or r etar d gr eenhous e gas (GHG) emis s ions. ϖ Adaptation involves adjustment in pr actice, proces s or structure of s ys tems, to possible impacts. B ack gr ound continued

4 ϖ T he reas on behind climate change is GH Gs mainl y produced by the us e of fossil and bi omas s fuels. ϖ R enewable energy can provide a s ubs titute for fossil fuels and other nonr enewable polluting s our ces of energy. Background continued

5 ϖ R enewable energy s ources - a s tr ategi c way to maintain environmental management and s us tai nabl e development under various climate change s cenarios. ϖ R enewable energy includes wind, water, s olar, tidal, energy-fr om-was te and ener gyfr om-cr ops (bio-mas s ) s ources. B ack gr ound continued

6 T idal power ϖ An important source of renewable energy gover ned by the moon s gravity to the earth. ϖ H uge technical potential. ϖ Clean energy, no GH Gs or waste s treams. ϖ Global warming wi ll increase s ea l evel and incr eas e the potential for tidal power production. ϖ T idal power plants could be us ed for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. B ack gr ound continued

7 ϖ B anglades h not a GH G contr i butor, but a vi ctim of potential threats of s ea l evel rise. ϖ B anglades h has a l ong coas tal belt with embankments, s luice gates, s ignificant tidal rise and fal l twice daily. B ack gr ound continued

8 Objectives ϖ Dis cuss the threats of global warming to coas tal Bangladesh ϖ Analys e potential for tidal power in coas tal B anglades h as a mi tigation and adaptation pr ocess for climate change. ϖ R ecommend an integrated tidal power fr amewor k in coas tal Bangladesh for sustainable integr ated coas tal development.

9 Cons equences from s ea l evel rise ϖ Global surface temperature to increas e 1.4 to 5.8 o C between 1990 and 2100 with ris e of s ea level of 15 to 95 cm. ϖ Changes may lead to potentially s erious cons equences for many agricultural regions: cr op yi el ds will decrease or vary frequently in different seasons in a year, or from year to year. inundation or submerging of exis ting infr as tr uctur e, touris m, trans portation and other s. changes in s torm patterns.

10 T he global cost of climate change ϖ $300 billion pa unl ess urgent efforts are made to curb emi ssions of GH Gs. ϖ E cos ys tem losses, including mangr ove s wamps, cor al reefs and coas tal lagoons, over $70 billion by ϖ Agr icultur e and for es tr y up to $42 billion as a r es ult of droughts, floods and fi r es. ϖ Natur al disasters, including mor e frequent cyclones and hurricanes, $3 billion dollars.

11 E x is ting global situation ϖ T he earth s temperature ros e 0.6 o C over last 100 year s. ϖ Ocean s warming i ncr eas ed by up to 1 o C per centur y in North Atlantic. ϖ Melted mountai n glaciers contributed 2-7 cm to ocean ris e s ince ϖ Aver age global sea l evel rose: cm in the las t 100 years about 30 cm in the las t century along the Atlantic Coas t.

12 B anglades h S cenario ϖ H imalayan s now melting ϖ 44 glacial lakes filled up ϖ S ea l evel rise ex pected cm by 2100 ϖ 1m s ea l evel rise = 1/5 of coas tal Bangladesh per manently under water within 100 years ϖ L oss of up to 16% of the land now suppor ting 13% of Banglades h GDP ϖ S ea l evel increase will affect >50% of 130 mln people in coas tal areas, mos t earn <US $1 /day

13 Projected i mpacts ϖ L and l os s and popul ation dis placement ϖ I ncr eas ed fl ooding of low-lying coas tal areas ϖ Agr icultur al impacts from inundation, s alinisation, and l and l oss ϖ I mpacts on coas tal aquaculture ϖ Changes in coas tal water current and movement, tidal range, precipitation, run-off. B anglades h s cenario continued

14 Contr ibutor s to GHG emi s s i ons ϖ 80% industrialised nations ϖ U S A alone 33% of total of GH Gs ϖ B anglades h emits less than 0.001% of GH Gs. I n 1997: ϖ U S A emitted 720 million tonnes CO 2 (20.5 t/capita); ϖ Aus tr alia emi tted 306 million tonnes CO 2 (16 t/capita) ϖ I ndia emi tted 300 million tonnes CO 2 (0.9 t/capita) ϖ China emi tted 200 million tonnes CO 2 (2.5 t/capita) ϖ B anglades h emitted <0.8 tonnes CO 2 /capita. S our ce: Reynolds, 2001; L ovell, 2002; Plotk in, 2002

15 Adaptation, mitigation & sustainability issues in B anglades h ϖ S hor t term - impr ove dis as ter preparedness. ϖ I mmediate - mitigation, including: reduce GHG emission, compens ation for the harm caus ed by climate change. ϖ L onger term - s tr ategies and pl ans for adaptation, s uch as coastal zone management.

16 Pos s ible Adaptations ϖ Adjus t to s ea-level rise ϖ L ow-cos t, local, affordable appr opr i ate devices to live with water-r elated ex tr emes ϖ Change paradigms (anticipation and pr evention) to reduce the human vulner ability ϖ I mpr ove flood and cycl one pr otection ϖ I ntegr ated, participatory community-bas ed coas tal management. Continued to previous page

17 T i dal pow er : opt i on for adapt at i on t o cl i mat e change i n coas t al B angl ades h ϖ H i gher ti des = mor e pow er ful s t or m s ur ges + changed ocean cur r ent s ϖ L ong coas t l i ne w i t h 2-8 m t i dal hei ght (head). ϖ Coas t al r eady equi pped w i t h l evees, s l ui ce gat es, embank ment s. ϖ S mal l -s cal e w at er -w heel bas ed t i dal pow er pl ant s pos s i bl e.

18 ϖ Coas tal Bangladesh deficient in electricity s uppl y. ϖ B anglades h - lowes t electricity us age in world (95 kwh per capita) cf. Norway (24,602 kwh), US A (12,407 kwh), UK (9,211 kwh), Aus tralia (5,583 k Wh), India (412 kwh). ϖ 18% of population access electricity, <5% in rural ar eas. ϖ Coas tal villages even less access than average village. ϖ Coas tal Bangladesh is far behind wi th res pect to development, indus trialisation and s mall-s cale indus tr ies. Continued.

19 ϖ Potential for tidal power significant, and barrages necessary for controlled fl ow through tur bines are als o needed for flood contr ol. ϖ Avoids high capital costs as engineering i s already there or needed for cyclone protection.

20 I n s mall-s cale tidal power applications, 3 elements needed: ϖ U nder s hot paddl ewheel design with s imple cons tr uction to enable the placement of wheels at appr opr i ate locations in levees ; ϖ Var iable s peed, electricity generation equipment, attached di r ectly to wheel or via s imple gearing-up mechani s m; ϖ E x is ting el ectr oni c controllers, appr opr i ate for small-s cale machines, to regulate the power output from variable water flow.

21 ϖ Pr oject offers improvements to coas tal flood contr ol capabilities. ϖ E nvironmental impacts minimal, due to ex is ting ti dal barrages for flood pr otection which have already impacted s urrounding environment.

22 T idal power plants: ϖ R educe GHG emi s s i ons (mitigation meas ure) ϖ Could be integrated with coas tal resources for sustainable coas tal devel opment. ϖ Could be organis ed by par ticipator y communitybas ed or gani z ation. ϖ Can tap i nto inter national funding s uch as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

23 R ecommendations ϖ B anglades h Government should demons tr ate a ti dal power project and eval uate feas ibility and s us tai nabi l i ty. ϖ L ong-ter m s trategy to develop tidal power and other r enewable technologies in coas tal Bangladesh. ϖ Obtain s uppor t from K yoto mechanis ms, s uch as CDM. ϖ I ndus tr ialis ed countr i es and mul tilateral or ganis ations s hould hel p B angl ades h to adapt to climate change. ϖ F ur ther research for broader application throughout all coas tal areas of Banglades h + other coastal areas of S E As ian countries + other relevant countries.

24 Conclus ions ϖ Development of tidal power plant impor tant for adaptation to climate change in coas tal Bangladesh and many other electr icity-deficient coastal countries. ϖ I ntegr ated tidal power project will solve many problems and coul d be us ed for s us tainable coas tal development of B anglades h. ϖ A probable candidate for CDM financing.

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