The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015

Transcription

1 The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 215 Free download at Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris, France Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium, 2 September 215

2 Coming Up Global Overview Nuclear Industry Developments Generation III+ Reactors Why the Delays and Cost Overruns? Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy Deployment Concluding Remarks Q & A

3 4 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 July Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

4 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28 in units, from 1956 to 1 July Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

5 Milliers TWh Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program 1963 to 214 Fleet (in Units) and Electricity Generation (in TWh) Reactors in LTO Reactors in Operation Electricity Production Number of Reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

6 The WNISR214 Establishes New Reactor Status Category: Long-Term Outage or LTO A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO) if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR. 41 reactors worldwide in LTO - 4 in Japan, shut down between 1995 and in Sweden, shut down in June 213

7 GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 July GWe 42 reactors 438 reactors Number of Reactors GWe 391 reactors Reactors in operation Operable capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

8 GWe 16 Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 July 215 Number of Reactors Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity 123 GWe 177 reactors GW 128 reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

9 % 2% 15% Nuclear Electricity Production in the World in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross) max 17.6% max 2,66 TWh 2,41 TWh TWh % 1.8% % 1 5 % Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

10 TWh Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 214/213/Historic Maximum (in TWh) Historic Maximum USA France Russia South Korea China Canada Germany Ukraine Sweden UK Spain Taiwan India Belgium Czech Rep. Switzerland Finland Bulgaria Hungary South Africa Brazil Slovakia Romania Mexico Slovenia Argentina Pakistan Netherlands Iran Armenia Japan Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 215

11 % Nuclear Share in Electricity Production in 214/213/Historic Maximum (in %) Historic Maximum France Slovakia Hungary Ukraine Belgium Sweden Switzerland Slovenia Czech Rep, Finland Bulgaria Armenia South Korea Spain USA Taiwan Russia Romania UK Canada Germany South Africa Mexico Pakistan Argentina Netherlands India Brazil China Iran Japan Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 215

12 Number of Reactors Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, July Cancelled or Suspended Projects Completed and Ongoing Projects Construction Starts Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 214

13 Number of Construction Starts per Year Construction Starts of Nuclear Reactors in the World by year, July 215 (in Units) Completed Under Construction Including Cancelled Completed or Under Construction

14 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

15 Years Average Annual Construction Times in the World (by grid connection date) Size proportional to number of reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

16 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

17 Reactors «Under Construction» in the World (1 July 215) Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

18 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, WNA, various sources compiled by MSC 215

19 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, WNA, various sources compiled by MSC 215

20 Number of Reactors in Operation in the World from 215 to 261 LTO Lifetime 4 Years Lifetime <4 Years 7/ Sources: IAEA-PRIS, US-NRC, MSC 215

21 35 Age of 391 Reactors in Operation in the World as of 1 July 215 Number of Reactors Mean Age 28.8 year Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

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23 French Nuclear Companies in Trouble EDF (214) 4.5%/a operating cost increase ! Loss of 1.5 billion in 212! Need for significant tariff increases Stock value plunged >7% (up to 85%) since 27 High debt 34.2bn ( 37.5bn 1 st half year 215) for turnover of 73bn AREVA (214) Loss of 4.8bn (almost 8bn in 4 years = annual turnover) High debt 5.8bn ( 6bn 1 st half year 215) for turnover of 8.3bn Stock value plunged by > 85% since 27 Standard & Poor s downgraded AREVA shares to BB+ ( junk ) in November 214 and again to BB- in March 215 Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor s

24 The Promises of a Nuclear Renaissance In 199s: new nuclear low perspective because of high costs, high economic risk, difficult to finance and safety concerns. Promise for Gen III+ designs: safer, but simpler, therefore cheaper and easier to build. Forecast costs <$1,/kW, construction time 3-4 years Promises on construction cost proved hopelessly inaccurate (prev. WNISRs) Olkiluoto (24) expected to cost $2,5/kW US utility estimates (26-8) $5,/kW Open tenders in Canada, South Africa (around 29) about $6,/kW Hinkley Point C (213) about $8,/kW.

25 Gen III+ Construction Times Passive safety, modularisation, standardisation to reduce delays No Gen III+ design in operation 3 designs with 18 reactors under construction: 4 EPRs (AREVA) 8 AP1s (Toshiba/Westinghouse) 6 AES-26s (Rosatom) Little reliable information. EPR site quality (welding, concrete) major causes of delay Instrumentation & Control serious regulatory concern Flamanville and Taishan (China) may be scrapped if manufacturing errors for pressure vessel lid & bottom are too serious. AP1 Construction experience from 29 in China and 213 in USA: Longer delays in China than for EPRs and US units as European EPRs Module production facilities: Coolant pumps caused serious problems in China.

26 Gen III+ Conclusions No evidence new designs cheaper than predecessors. Fukushima lessons mean costs likely to continue to increase. Claim that design could be simplified were an illusion. EPR based on old design with added safety so could hardly be simpler. AP1 more modern but high cost and delays suggest no reduction in complexity. Modularisation moved quality problems from site to factory. Standardisation for 4 years with no success. Technology still not mature, ordering rates too low, national regulators requirements differ. Generic design approval impossible without standardisation. Gen III+ seems to have failed. Is that the end of light water reactor (PWR & BWR) technology? If Gen IV or SMRs are not soon commercially available, how can the nuclear industry survive?

27 Plant Country Technology Construction start Completion date at construction start Forecast construction completion at 5/15 Forecast cost at construction start Latest forecast cost Olkiluoto-3 Finland EPR 5/5 5/9 Late bn 8.5bn Flamanville-3 France EPR 12/7 5/ bn 8.5bn Taishan-1 China EPR 11/9 2/14 12/15 4bn Taishan-2 China EPR 4/1 8/ bn Sanmen-1 China AP1 4/9 8/13 Mid 216 US$194/kW Sanmen-2 China AP1 12/9 8/14 6/16 US$194/kW Haiyang-1 China AP1 9/9 5/14 3/16 US$194/kW Haiyang-2 China AP1 6/1 2/15 9/16 US$194/kW 2 percent over budget 2 percent over budget 2 percent over budget 2 percent over budget Summer-2 USA AP1 3/13 3/16 6/19 US$5.2bn US$6.2bn Summer-3 USA AP1 11/13 11/18 6/2 US$5.2bn US$6.2bn Vogtle-3 USA AP1 3/13 4/16 2 nd q 219 US$6.65bn US$8.15bn Vogtle-4 USA AP1 11/13 1/18 2 nd q 22 US$6.65bn US$8.15bn Leningrad-2-1 Russia AES-26 1/ Leningrad-2-2 Russia AES-26 4/ Novovoronezh-2-1 Russia AES-26 6/ Novovoronezh-2-2 Russia AES-26 7/ Belarusian-1 Belarus AES-26 11/ US$6.5bn US$11.45bn Belarusian-2 Belarus AES-26 4/ US$6.5bn US$11.45bn

28 US$ billion 35 Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power (in US$ billion) Solar Wind Other renewables Nuclear Source: FS-UNEP BNEF 215 and WNISR original research

29 GWe Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World (cumulated, in GWe) Wind Nuclear Solar Source: WNISR, BP Statistical Review 215

30 Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215

31 Global Indicators China, Germany, Japan three of the world s four largest economies plus Brazil, India, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Spain, now all generate more electricity from non-hydro renewables than from nuclear power. These eight countries represent more than three billion people or 45 percent of the world's population. In the UK, electricity output from renewable sources, including hydropower, overtook the output from nuclear. Compared to 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol on climate change was signed, in 214 there was an additional 694 TWh per year of wind power and 185 TWh of solar photovoltaics each exceeding nuclear's additional 147 TWh.

32 GWe Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity in China (in GWe) Wind 75 Solar Nuclear ,3 6,8,1,3, Source: EPIC, IAEA-PRIS, GWEC 215

33 TWh/y Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear in China (in TWh/year) Wind Nuclear Solar Source: BP 215, IAEA-PRIS 215

34 TWh/ Variations in Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 in the EU from Wind, Solar and Nuclear (in TWh) Wind 198 Nuclear 1 Solar Source: IAEA-PRIS, BP, MSC 215

35 GWe 15 Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU 214 by Energy Source in GWe Wind PV Natural Gas Other Renewables -7.3 Coal Fuel Oil Nuclear Source: EWEA 215

36 TWh Wind, Solar and Nuclear Production in India (in TWh) Wind Solar Nuclear ,,3,

37 Concluding Remarks Nuclear power has been on the decline concerning most of the indicators: operating reactors, electricity generation, reactors under construction, new construction sites, etc. Nuclear s position in the power market is increasingly threatened by a shrinking client base, increasing production costs, stagnating electricity consumption, and ferocious competitors, especially from the renewable energy sector. Nuclear industry companies and utilities are struggling with high debt loads, shrinking profit margins and decreasing prices on the wholesale power market.

38 Large-scale power generation, however, will be the dinosaur of the future energy system: Too big, too inflexible, not even relevant for backup power in the long run. UBS (largest Swiss bank) Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system? 2 August 214 Thank You! Contact: mycle@orange.fr Phone: online now!