Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014

Transcription

1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today In Germany the first GDP estimate for 2013 as a whole will be released and indirectly this should also give us the first estimate for GDP growth in Q4. Recent hard data have been strong so we expect GDP to have expanded a solid % q/q in Q4. If our estimate proves right, German GDP should have expanded 0.6% in In the US the Empire manufacturing survey and producer prices for December are due for release. Fed will release Beige Book, the regional survey of the US economy based on anecdotal evidence from the regional Fed branches. Beige Book could be more interesting than usual in light of the current uncertainty about the strength of the economy in the wake of the disappointing December labour market report. Chicago and Atlanta Fed presidents Charles Evans (non-voter, dove) and Dennis Lockhart (non-voter, hawk) are both scheduled to speak. Lockhart will probably not have much to add to his comments on Monday when he supported further tapering despite the weak labour market report. Bank of England governor Mark Carney and ECB board member Yves Mersch are also scheduled to speak today. Selected market news Market s risk appetite was boosted yesterday by the better-than-expected US retail sales that rose 0.2% m/m in December (consensus: 0.1%, Danske Bank Markets: 0.1%). Auto sales dropped markedly in December due to bad weather and when excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.7%, which is the fastest pace in almost a year. Overall, retail sales were on an increasing path in 2013, which is good news for the US economy. S&P500 gained more than 1% and thus reversed most of its losses from the start of the week, while yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 4bp to The positive sentiment has been carried over to the Asian session where most regional equity indices are up this morning. In the FX market, the US dollar gained support while the yen in particular is sold off. There were no surprises in last night s speeches by the two voting FOMC members Charles Plosser and Richard Fischer and neither of them expressed concerns about the potential effect on the US economy from the bad weather in December. Both hawks were overall pleased with the Fed s decision to start tapering its bond purchases. Unsurprisingly, Fischer said that he would have preferred a faster termination of Fed s bond purchase programme advocating a USD20bn reduction, while Plosser on Bloomberg was quoted saying that there s certainly no rush to raise rates just because we get to 6.5%. Chinese credit growth and money supply eased slightly more than expected in December, data released overnight showed. M2 money supply growth eased to 13.6% y/y down from 14.2% y/y in November, underscoring that the People s Bank of China s de facto monetary tightening since mid-2013 is likely to weigh on growth this year. Market overview Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg Selected readings from Danske Bank US retail sales increased despite the weather Senior Analyst Morten Helt mohel@danskebank.dk 07:30 1 day +/-,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD T Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi markets today No key events in Scandinavia today. Fixed Income markets The US bond market paid much attention to yesterday s FOMC member speeches as both Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher are voting members in Plosser expressed satisfaction with the tapering decision in December and highlighted that he would not put too much weight on last Friday s weak labour market report, signalling a further willingness to continue scaling down the asset purchase programme and that the bar to change pace of QE taper should be high. Richard Fisher has explicitly been against the bond purchase programme and he would still prefer the programme to end as soon as practicable possible. He would have preferred 20bn for a first cut of monthly bond buying. Markets reacted accordingly with yields rising in the Treasury market and this is a demonstration of how the composition of the FOMC committee will be tilted towards the hawkish side in Today the German Finanzagentur is next in line to launch a new bond with a EUR5bn print in a Feb-19 Bobl. In the periphery Portugal continued to outperform yesterday, while this year s strong performance in Spain and Italy has paused and even reversed a bit this week. Spain will come to the market tomorrow with a duration heavy tap of EUR in the Apr-17, the Jul-26 and the Oct-28. FX markets USD gained support yesterday as better-than-expected US retail sales for December reduced concerns about the US recovery. However, while JPY, CAD and AUD were sold off quite considerably, EUR/USD continued to edge higher supported by strong eurozone industrial production data and consequently higher Eonia rates. We still look for a lower EUR/USD in the medium to longer term and we have kept our 12M target unchanged at 1.26 in the January FX Forecast Update that will be published later today. However, we stress that our outlook for a weaker EUR/USD in 2014 requires both the Fed and the ECB to take action: we still think there is potential for a steeper US moneymarket curve to push USD higher as the Fed ends tapering later in the year, and for the ECB to convince markets of its determination to anchor the short end of the EUR curve. The latter is probably associated with the greatest uncertainty and today we could even see more upside to EUR/USD as we look for yet another upbeat European data release when the first estimate for German 2013 GDP is due at 09:00 CET. Besides strong European data and higher Eonia rates, strong peripherals performance currently also provides support to the cross and therefore we have upped our near-term outlook a little and now see EUR/USD at 1.33 in 3M. US S&P500 future Mon Tue Thu Fri Mon Wed US 10y gov yield Mon Tue Wed Fri Mon Wed Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Mon Tue Thu Fri Mon Wed Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Mon Tue Thu Fri Mon 2 15 January

3 Key figures and events Wednesday, January 15, 2014 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous - USD U.S. regulators address Volcker rule 9:00 DEM GDP (2013) y/y 0.6% % 0.7% 9:00 DEM Budget Maastricht % of GDP % Dec % 0.1% 9:00 ESP HICP m/m y/y Dec % 0.3% 9:00 DKK Wholesale prices m/m y/y Dec -0.6% -2.2% 10:00 NOK Trade balance NOK bn Dec :00 EUR ECB announces allotment in 7-day (USD) 11:00 EUR Trade balance EUR bn Nov 14.5B 13:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications 2.6% 14:05 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks in Saarbruecken, Germany 14:30 USD PPI m/m y/y Dec 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 1.2% -0.1% 0.7% 14:30 USD PPI core m/m y/y Dec 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 14:30 USD Empire manufacturing PMI m/m Jan :50 USD Fed's Evans (non-voter, dovish) speaks 20:00 USD Beige book Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 15 January

4 Today s market data: 15 January 2014 STOCKS DOW JONES Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets NASDAQ 4183 Grey line indicates opening of US markets 1 month 3.6% 1 month 6.4% S&P Year-to-date -% Year-to-date 0.4% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR 17:00 07:30 +/- JPY day Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB C R B, R aw PLN USD 17:00 07:30 +/- JPY day month GBP month Year-to-date -7 CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Spread, P o licy R ate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp 0.40 USD2Y USD10Y 2.88 USD USD 10Y Max 0.4 Max 2.9 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.3 Min GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp NOK DEM 10Y USD2Y (lhs) EUR/USD Intraday USD10Y (rhs) USD : :30 Close Go ld, $ M future PLN DKK 10Y S&P500 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close +/ DJSTOXX % Max 1.4 Max 0.7 OM XC % 0.70 Min Min OM XS % 0.6 OSE BX % +/- 0.7% SEK 10Y NOK 10Y % PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day 1.1% Oil, B rent, $ Industrials Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve 1.5 DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) C redit spread, it raxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Jan Mar Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov Jan NOK 10Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price 4 15 January

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication January

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission January