Nivesh Daily Currency

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1 Nivesh Daily Currency 15 July, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR URINR GBPINR JPYINR Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close Change in % Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR 27 July,2016 Expiry Option Update Closing. Options LTP %Chg %ChgOI Prev. OI% Chng OI CE CE CE CE CE PE PE PE PE PE RBI Reference Rate (July 14, 2016) Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( July Future) Dollar rupee ended at one-month low Thursday on likely overseas fund inflows into local shares amid dollar selling by foreign banks and the dollar index traded down Friday from previous day as investors risk appetite for riskier assets surged after the Bank of England hinted it would launch fresh stimulus. Technical, USDINR extended its recent bearish trend and after hitting a low of settled at levels. A breakdown of crucial support and Head & shoulder pattern breakdown is indicating for bearishness in USDINR and any rise towards is expect to attract short term selling activities. Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss Daily Chart Important Factor: U.S. CPI m/m EURINR ( July Future) Euro little changed during afternoon trades Wednesday as investors across the globe await Bank of England monetary policy meeting due later tomorrow. Sell strategy given around was initiated, but pair yet to test predicted level of 74.25, day low as same as previous day low, while forming similar bottom candle stick pattern. This formation is indicating for bearish reversal in EURINR. Further, pair would need to trade below its previous swing low in order to test and below. Recommendation LTP Buy around Target Stop loss Daily Important Factor : Final CPI y/y

3 GBP ( July Future) The pound jumped to the highest level since late June against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged; dashing expectations for a rate cut, but signaled that it will ease monetary policy at its August meeting. After hitting a low of compare to previous day close , GBPINR saw a sharp bounce back and tested levels. However, pair yet failed to break above 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating for bearishness in GBPIN, unless pair gives a closing above Above will expect to test Recommendation : LTP Buy above Target Stop loss Daily Chart Important Factor : BOE Gov Carney Speaks JPYINR (July Future) Yen traded near three-week high Thursday as investors expect the Bank of Japan to ease in it policy meeting later this month after the government's dimmed outlook over the world's third largest economy. JPYINR extended its recent bearish trend, and sell strategy given below was successful with pair drop towards before closing at A breakdown of double top pattern is found on EOD chart which is indicating for drastic fall in days to come and any rise towards expect to attract huge selling activities. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around Stop loss Target Daily Chart Important factor/data from Japan : NIL

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today India's wholesale price index-based inflation accelerated to a 20-month high in June led by higher food prices mainly vegetables, cereals and wheat. Wholesale price index-based inflation quickened to 1.62% in June, its third straight month of gain, compared to 0.79% rise in May, and government data showed Thursday. Further, WPI for the month of April was upwardly revised to 0.79% compared to 0.34% provisional. Swiss PPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, from 0.4% in the preceding month. Despite market expectations for a rate cut, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to leave rates unchanged at a record low and hinted that a move for more stimulation could possibly come in August. The monetary policy committee of the BoE voted eight to one to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% and to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at 375 billion. The central bank gave a clear indication that it will ease monetary policy at its next meeting in August. Chinese Retail Sales rose to an annual rate of 10.6%, from 10.0% in the preceding month. Chinese Industrial Production rose to 6.2%, from 6.0% in the preceding month. Chinese GDP remained unchanged at an annual rate of 6.7%, from 6.7% in the preceding month. Chinese Fixed Asset Investment fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.0%, from 9.6% in the preceding month. U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 9 was unchanged at 254,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to increase by 11,000 to 265,000 last week. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 7:30am CNY GDP q/y 6.60% 6.70% Negative CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.90% 6.00% Negative CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9.40% 9.60% Negative CNY NBS Press Conference CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.90% 10.00% Negative 15th-16th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 11.40% 11.80% Negative 15th-16th CNY New Loans 1000B 986B Positive 1:30pm EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.27B 4.52B Negative 2:00pm GBP Construction Output m/m -1.10% 2.50% Negative 2:30pm EUR Final CPI y/y 0.10% 0.10% Neutral EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.90% 0.90% Neutral EUR Trade Balance 25.2B 28.0B Negative 5:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks :00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.40% Neutral USD Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50% Negative USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Negative 6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.20% 74.90% Positive USD Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.40% Positive 7:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m % - 7:30pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Positive USD Business Inventories m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations % - Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in