Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
|
|
- Oswald Walsh
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 USD/JPY 04 NZD/USD 05 Upcoming Economic Figures GBP/USD Citibank and Events 02 AUD/USD 07 Citibank and Arc Weekly Design FX is Focus a registered service 03 mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited USD/CNY 08 FX & Eco. Figures Interest Rate & FX 09 Economic Figures 10
2 Weekly FX Recap Market recap: USD/JPY surged last week amid expectations of tapering due to strong U.S. employment data The AUD dropped as Australia s GDP growth in Q3 slowed down from 2.4% to 2.3% and the RBA made bearish comments on the AUD. AUD/USD dropped 0.1% to close at last week. AUD outlook: AUD/USD may test lower to The EUR climbed as the ECB statement was not as negative as expected and showed the bank needs enough time to observe inflation development, indicating the authority may not cut rates in the short term. EUR/USD surged 0.9% to close at last week. EUR outlook: EUR/USD may be constrained between USD/JPY rose as U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 203K, topping the market forecast of 185K. and unemployment rate dropped to 5-year low at 7%. USD/JPY rose 0.5% to close at JPY outlook: USD /JPY may test higher to Weekly changes versus US dollar Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6,
3 Upcoming Economic Figures and Events The NZD may be underpinned amid the RBNZ s meeting Key Economic Data This Week: Dec 12 (Thur): Australia will announce November s employment data. Market expects employment may increase 10,000, much better than October s increase of This may limit the AUD s downside. (Market forecast: 10000; prior: 1100) Key Events This Week: Dec 12 (Thur): The RBNZ will announce the rate decision. => The RBNZ may reiterate the kiwi is currently overvalued but jawboning the kiwi may not have significant impact on it because NZ economy is recovering and thus the central bank will finally hike rates. If expectations of next year s increase in interest rates heat up, the kiwi may strengthen and AUD/NZD may drop further. 2
4 Weekly FX Focus: Fund outflows from Japan to foreign markets may undermine the JPY Bn Japan s Investment Portfolio Fund Inflows/Outflows ( billion) ve: fund inflows ve: fund outflows Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6, 2013 The amount of selling foreign assets and bringing back funds to Japan by Japan s institutional investors in H climbed to the record high. But since Japan s bond yields keep decreasing, Japan s investors could not obtain expected return and thus Japan s institutional investors started to reinvest in foreign assets. Previous fund inflows into Japan are expected to end. In fact, the chairman of the advisory board of Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) said to revise down the holding of Japan s bonds from currently 58% to 52%. U.S. bond yields may rise on the expectation of tapering by the Fed in March next year. This may prompt Japan s institutional investors to sell low-return Japan s bonds and to buy U.S. bonds, which may underpin the USD and bring negative impacts on the JPY. In addition, Japan s personal investors also started to invest in foreign assets. Personal investors may increase investment in emerging markets while institutional investors tend to but low-risk U.S. government bonds. Since Haruhiko Kuroda took office as the governor of the BOJ, he has expanded QE and has succeeded in adjusting Japan s investment portfolio by reducing the proportion of Japan s bonds and increasing higher-risk assets and foreign investment. This may increase fund outflows of Japan, which may undermine the JPY in the medium and long term. Citi analysts expect USD/JPY may test higher to 105 level for the coming 6-12 months Q Q Q Oct-13 3
5 USD/JPY USD/JPY may test higher to ( ) Last Price (75.41) High (75.06) Low (76.36) Market Recap: USD/JPY rose as markets expected the Fed to start tapering earlier due to the better-than-expected employment data. JPY Outlook: U.S.-Japan yield spreads are expanding due to rising U.S. treasury yields. Fund outflows from Japan to the U.S. may suppress the JPY. Although Japan announced 18.6 trillion stimulus package, the amount was marginally in line with expectations, disappointing investors. This may undermine the JPY. The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference, and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD (77.13) (76.36) (74.80) (73.90) m (76.08) 6-12m (73.90) Upcoming Economic Data Dec 9: GDP Dec 9: BoP Current Account Adjusted The BOJ may expand QE to offset the negative impacts of sales tax hikes, which may suppress the JPY. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY may test higher to the high at (73.90) in May upon consolidation. A breach on the upside may send the pair higher to (73.90) with support at (76.36). Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6,
6 NZD/USD NZD may test higher to (6.53) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference Last Price (6.41) High (6.53) Low (6.39) (6.24) (6.35) (6.55) (6.63) 0-3m 0.87 (6.75) 6-12m 0.85 (6.60) Upcoming Economic Data Dec 12: The RBNZ s rate decision Dec 13: Business PMI Market Recap: Funds may flow from Australia to NZ due to the divergence of economy and monetary policies between two countries. NZD Outlook: The RBNZ may hike rates in Q1 of 2014, which may support the kiwi in the medium and long term NZ s term of trade in Q3 rose from 4.7% to 7.5%, indicating export prices were much higher than import prices. Increase in export revenue may support the kiwi s rally. The kiwi may be indirectly suppressed by a rise in the USD as the Fed may start tapering earlier Technical Analysis: NZD/USD may rebound to (6.53), with support at (6.27) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6,
7 GBP/USD GBP/USD may test higher to (12.80) upon consolidation Last Price (12.69) High (12.76) Low (12.64) (12.30) (12.62) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference (12.80) (12.90) 0-3m 1.65 (12.80) 6-12m 1.75 (13.58) Upcoming Economic Data Dec 10: Industrial Production Dec 10: Trade Balance Market Recap: The GBP dropped as the U.K. Autumn budget only revised up 2014 economic growth to 2.4%, which disappointed the pound. GBP Outlook: The pound may be underpinned as the BOE remained the interest rate (0.5%) and the scale of bond buying unchanged, which may support the economic development. The BOE may start to hike rates in 2015 due to strong U.K. economic growth and unemployment rate dropping to 7% as early as end The Fed may start tapering earlier due to upbeat U.S. employment data. A rise in the USD may restrain the pound. Technical Analysis: GBP/USD may test higher to (12.80) upon consolidation, with resistance at (12.90) and support at (12.62) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6,
8 AUD/USD AUD/USD may test lower to ( ) Last Price (7.06) High (7.11) Low (6.98) (6.74) (6.87) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference (7.20) (7.33) 0-3m 0.91 (7.06) 6-12m 0.88 (6.83) Upcoming Economic Data Dec 11: Consumer Confidence Dec 12: Unemployment rate Market Recap: The AUD plunged as Australia s GDP growth in Q3 slowed down from 2.4% to 2.3%, worse than expected, indicating slow economic growth. AUD Outlook: The RBA s statement reiterated the AUD is currently overvalued, which may suppress the AUD. Department of the Treasury said economic growth may not reach the government s target and budget may deteriorate in 13/14 fiscal year, indicating concerns on economic outlook. This may suppress the AUD. Appreciation of the USD due to the possible tapering by the Fed before January next year is likely AUD-negative. Technical Analysis: AUD/USD may be suppressed and test lower to ( ), with support at (7.20) (100 MA) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec 6,
9 USD/CNY USD/CNY may test lower to 6.05 Last Price High Low 0-3m 6-12m Market Recap: Reform policies released by China government after the third plenum strengthened investors confidence in China s economic outlook. Fund inflows into China may support the CNY CNY Outlook: A series of reform policies released by China s central government may support China s economic recovery. This is likely CNY-positive in the medium and long term The PBOC said qualified institutional investment limit will be cancelled, which fueled expectations more foreign investments will be made in China. This support the appreciation of CNY in the medium and long term. Citi analyst expect USD/CNY may test lower to 6.05 for the coming 6-12 months month forecast: 6.05 Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Nov 8,
10 Appendix 1: Citi Interest Rate and FX for 2013 Citi FX Outlook Citi FX Interest Rate 0-3 month 6-12 month 11/29/13 4Q 13 1Q 14 Dollar Index EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CNY Source: Citi, forecast as of Nov 21, 2013 downgraded upgraded EUR: Due to the improving economic data, receding risk of EU debt crisis and fund inflows into the eurozone, the EUR may be supported in the short to medium term. GBP: As U.K. economy improves, the BOE may hike rates earlier in 2015, which may send the GBP higher to 1.65 for the coming 0-3 months. AUD: Since the Fed may not start tapering in the short term, AUD/USD downside may be limited to 0.91 for the coming 0-3 months. NZD: 2014 NZ growth may accelerate to 3.0% and the RBNZ may hike rates in Q1 2014, which may underpin the kiwi. JPY: Since the BOJ may expand QE and the U.S.-Japan yield spread may widen, USD/JPY may rise to 105 level gradually in the medium term. 9
11 Appendix 2: Upcoming Economic Figures (Dec 9, 2013 Dec 13, 2013) Date Time Event Actual Prior 12/09/ :00 NZ QV House Prices YoY Nov % 12/09/ :50 JN BoP Current Account Adjusted Oct B 12/09/ :50 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q % 12/09/ :30 CH CPI YoY Nov % 12/09/ :15 CA Housing Starts Nov K 12/10/ :01 UK RICS House Price Balance Nov -- 57% 12/10/ :30 AU Home Loans MoM Oct % 12/10/ :30 AU NAB Business Conditions Nov /10/ :30 CH Industrial Production YoY Nov % 12/10/ :30 CH Retail Sales YoY Nov % 12/10/ :30 UK Industrial Production MoM Oct % 12/10/ :30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Oct % 12/10/ :30 UK Trade Balance Oct /11/ :30 AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Dec /12/ :00 US Monthly Budget Statement Nov /12/ :00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Dec % 12/12/ :30 AU Employment Change Nov K 12/12/ :30 AU Unemployment Rate Nov % 12/12/ :00 EC Industrial Production SA MoM Oct % 12/12/ :30 CA New Housing Price Index YoY Oct % 12/12/ :30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Nov % 12/12/ :30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Nov % 12/12/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec K 12/13/ :30 NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Nov /13/ :00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Dec % Source: Bloomberg L.P. 10
12 Important Disclosure For any enquiries, please call (852) This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ( Citibank ) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: s are a joint venture between Citi s foreign exchange, global macro and technical strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present s on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may change without notice and (ii) may differ from those views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange:. Should CitiFX Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or "neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term technical analysis tools, namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages. 11
Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Jul 18, 2016 with data as of Jul 15, 2016 FX & Eco. Figures Forecast P. 10-13. Citibank Wealth Management
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight *INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure
More informationDaily FX & Market Commentary
Market Recap U.S. stocks declined: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 2,165 as results from companies including Intel disappointed. U.S. data remain positive: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped by 1,000
More informationDaily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014
Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is
More informationEconomic Data Release Calendar July 31, 2016 - August 5, 2016
Economic Data Release Calendar July 31, 2016 - August 5, 2016 www.dailyfx.com research@dailyfx.com AUD 1.75% NZD 2.25% EUR 0.00% CAD 0.50% GBP 0.50% USD 0.50% CHF -0.75% JPY -0.10% Date Currency Event
More informationFX Market Headlines INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE. August 15 th, 2016.
August 15 th, 2016 FX Market Headlines United States United Kingdom Japan Australia INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Important Disclosure
More informationEconomic Data Release Calendar May 29, 2016 - June 3, 2016
Economic Data Release Calendar May 29, 2016 - June 3, 2016 www.dailyfx.com research@dailyfx.com AUD 1.75% NZD 2.25% EUR 0.00% CAD 0.50% GBP 0.50% USD 0.50% CHF -0.75% JPY -0.10% Date Currency Event GMT
More informationApril 13, 2009 USD/INR
April 13, 2009 USD/INR The Indian Rupee had further strengthened against USD during the week ended on 9 th of April by gaining as much as 0.65% or Rs.0.33 from previous week s closing to settle at 50.01.
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.27 0.20 6.75-3.2 68.3550 68.2025 68.1175 EURINR 74.50 0.67 20.16-10.6
More informationLearn Forex Fundamentals from the Pros Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg www.bkforex.com
Learn Forex Fundamentals from the Pros Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg www.bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be
More informationFxPro Education. Introduction to FX markets
FxPro Education Within any economy, consumers and businesses use currency as a medium of exchange. In the UK, pound sterling is the national currency, while in the United States it is the US dollar. Modern
More informationJanuary 2015 business.westernunion.com.au
Western Union Business Solutions Currency Outlook January 2015 business.westernunion.com.au What s coming up Steven Dooley Currency Strategist APAC 2 History in the making! These are historic times US
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Moving higher. EUR/USD has been range-bound
More informationMonthly Market Outlook
*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE 1 Monthly Market Outlook July 2016 July 2016 - Core Views and Investment Themes 2 Investment Strategy
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27
More informationRenminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact
More information96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment
Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency 15 July, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 67.03-0.25 0.67 1.93 67.1517 67.0583 66.9167 URINR 74.60 0.34-1.43
More information2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.
2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil
More informationWhat is the outlook for the Australian dollar?
What is the outlook for the Australian dollar? Listen to audio via your computer speakers or headset, or you may phone in to listen via the number on your reminder email. The Questions Pane Moderator Jackson
More informationTREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS
EMBARGOED: FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M. EST, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2011 TREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS October December 2010 During the fourth quarter of 2010, the U.S. dollar s
More informationDAILY FX OUTLOOK. Thursday, October 08, 2015 Major FX Themes. FX Strategy/Trading Ideas. Asian FX
DAILY FX OUTLOOK Thursday, October 08, 2015 Major FX Themes In spite of firmer UST yields, the USD ended mixed against the majors on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite saw the antipodeans gaining against
More informationDaily Market Report 16 th June 16
[Type text] Daily Market Report 16 th June 16 Research Team IFA Global Domestic and International Highlights Indian rupee opened at 66.13 after closing the previous session at 66.15 levels. The intra-day
More informationBond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing
More informationFX Forecast Update 15 July 2015
FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 Calm after the storm Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt Christin
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Bouncing back. EUR/USD is now moving
More informationCitigold. Citigold. FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 1 August 2016. Mixed week of monetary policy decisions. Performance.
Citigold FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 1 August 2016 Mixed week of monetary policy decisions Last week, global markets grappled with an unchanged monetary policy decision from the US FOMC and a disappointing
More informationFOREX. made easy. UNDERSTANDING THE BASICS. An educational tool by Blackwell Global.
FOREX made easy UNDERSTANDING THE BASICS. An educational tool by Blackwell Global. Risk Warning: Forex and CFDs are leveraged products and you may lose your initial deposit as well as substantial amounts
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update
Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied
More informationHow To Perform Well In January
MARKET UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015 A MARKET UPDATE PREPARED BY GWMAS TRADING AS THREESIXTY APPEARS BELOW. JANUARY MARKET PERFORMANCE "Equity Markets Price Indices" Index 1 Month 12 Months Australia All Ordinaries
More informationSPOT FX Trading Strategies. Copyright Powerup Capital Sdn Bhd
SPOT FX Trading Strategies Currency Codes USD = US Dollar EUR = Euro JPY = Japanese Yen GBP = Great Britian Pound CHF = Swiss Franc CAD = Canadian Dollar AUD = Australian Dollar NZD = New Zealand Dollar
More informationFOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 22 April - 28 April 2013. Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist
Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer FOREX WEEKLY REPORT Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT Senior Analyst www.migbank.com DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES FOREX WEEKLY REPORT - An overview
More informationMonex Global Retail Investor Survey
Monex Global Retail Investor Survey Executive Summary Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist, Monex, Inc. One of the most popular types of questions in entry exams for elementary schools asks what an object
More information2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
TTG WEALTH MANAGEMENT 2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 2015Q1 Core Asset Allocation Summary 1 2015Q1 Satellite Asset Allocation Summary 2 2014 Year-End Review 3 Investment Outlook for
More informationStrategy German engine in headwind
Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because
More informationWhy ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group
Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative
More informationEconomic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015
Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Selling pressures are still strong. EUR/USD
More informationJPMorgan Global Bond Fund. Global investing - A less volatile choice NEW. SFC-authorised global bond fund with RMB-hedged share classes*!
AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC CIRCULATION NEW JPMorgan Global Bond Fund December 2015 Asset Management Company of the Year 2014 Fundamental Strategies, Asia + Important information 1. The Fund invests primarily
More informationEconomic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015
Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade
More informationMORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault
More informationCIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016
CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:
More informationMonthly Economic Dashboard
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
More informationEPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX
21-July-2016 EPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ Forex - GBP/USD edges higher after U.K. employment data Forex - Aussie holds steady, kiwi edges higher in late trade
More informationGlobal Financials Update April 13, 2012
Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Market Update After posting a fairly strong and consistent rally over much of the last six months, the global equity markets have changed course over the
More informationCENTRAL BANKS, EUR & GEOPOLITICS Camilla Sutton l Chief Currency Strategist (416)866 5470 l camilla.sutton@scotiabank.com
DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 942 044 097# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 Skip backward 5 seconds Press 3 Skip forward 5 Press 4 Skip backward 5 minutes Press 6 Skip forward 5 minutes
More informationOctober 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks
More informationEconomic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015
Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further
More informationTRADING RULES ONLINE FX AND PRECIOUS METAL Effective August 10, 2015
TRADING RULES ONLINE FX AND PRECIOUS METAL Effective August 10, 2015 PRODUCTS Contract Size EUR/USD EUR 100,000 USD/JPY USD 100,000 GBP/USD GBP 100,000 USD/CHF USD 100,000 AUD/USD AUD 100,000 NZD/USD NZD
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency February 10, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.13-0.08-5.44-6.96 68.3367 68.2183 67.9942 EURINR 76.35 0.62
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK The AUD Still finding support Tuesday, 10 July 2012 Concerns regarding global economic growth have pushed commodity prices and the AUD lower since edging above $US1.08 in January.
More informationEUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies. Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com
EUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook May 2014 Stocks to Rebound with Q2 GDP & Earnings Recovery, Fresh ECB (& BoJ) Stimulus, Fed keeping U.S. Rates Low & Easing
More informationDOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics
DOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics THE FED S MESSAGE IS CLEAR: GET READY FOR HIGHER POLICY RATES Highlights Economic data and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve members have re-adjusted market expectations
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook with Focus on China and Chinese Insurance Market
Global Economic Outlook with Focus on China and Chinese Insurance Market 3 rd International China Liability Regimes Conference 21 August 2013, Beijing Kurt Karl Swiss Re Global economic outlook with focus
More informationFX Strategies. in the Post-Crisis World. Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia. Hong Kong October 2009
FX Strategies in the Post-Crisis World Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia Hong Kong October 2009 Contents ONE Key Trends in the Post-Crisis World TWO FX Hedging Strategies THREE FX Investment Strategies
More informationCIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering
CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee
More informationExchange Rate Outlook 19th November 2010
Exchange Rate Outlook 19th November 2010 Dollar makes up ground as risk appetite weakens Euro falls as concerns for eurozone sovereign debt resurface Sterling rallies on better than expected UK Q3 performance
More informationMorning Report 15th July, 2016
Morning Report 15th July, 2016 Major Cur Pair Emerging Currencies Asian Equity Currrency Last % Change Currency Last % Change Index Last % Change EURUSD 1.112 0.02 KRW 1133.5 0.2 Sensex 27805.2-0.49 GBPUSD
More informationRecent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016
Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the
More informationChapter 1.2. Currencies Come in Pairs
Chapter 1.2 Currencies Come in Pairs 0 GETTING STARTED You know the advantages of trading forex, and you are excited to start trading. Now you need to learn what this market is all about. How does it work?
More informationGlobal Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights
February 12, 2016 Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Weekly Performance Macro Currency Equity 10-y Govt Bond Yields US EU UK Japan Malaysia China Hong Kong Singapore Macroeconomics Janet
More informationMarkets Roundup. Yellen mildly hawkish at this week s FOMC? 14 March 2016 Research
Markets Roundup Research CONTENTS Market Movers 2 Economics Weekly Calendar 5 Yellen mildly hawkish at this week s FOMC? After the ECB surprised the markets last Thursday, financial market participants
More informationEPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX
25-July-2016 EPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ Forex - EUR/USD little changed after string of PMI reports Forex - GBP/USD moves lower as U.K. PMIs add to post-brexit
More informationSecurities Finance: Fixed Income & Repo Market Update
MARKETS GROUP Securities Finance: Fixed Income & Repo Market Update Key Highlights from a Panel Discussion Fixed income and repo market participants are adapting to new regulations and fiscal realities
More informationDecember 09 th 2013. FX Market Headlines. United States. United Kingdom. Eurozone. Japan
December 09 th 2013 FX Market Headlines United States United Kingdom Eurozone Japan Important Disclosure Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets
More informationWhy Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015
Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While
More informationAn Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013
An Overview of Offshore RMB Market Nov 2013 Contents 1. Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 2. Implications for Offshore RMB Bonds 2 Section 1 Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 3 RMB The next international
More informationEconomic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015
Economic Data September 18, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Minutes EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 22.6B 21.3B 25.4B CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% CAD CPI Y/Y Aug
More informationAN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
DUKASCOPY BANK SA AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET DUKASCOPY BANK EDUCATIONAL GUIDE AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET www.dukascopy.com CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO FOREX CURRENCY
More informationChapter 1.3. Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move
Chapter 1.3 Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move 0 FUNDAMENTALS MAKE CURRENCY PAIRS MOVE The key to making money in the Forex is understanding what makes currency pairs move. Ultimately, it is investors
More informationGundlach The Scariest Indicator in the World
Gundlach The Scariest Indicator in the World November 19, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Those Federal Reserve governors who intend to vote for an increase in rates at their December meeting need to take a close
More informationFX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist (416) 945 4538 Shaun.Osborne@sco abank.com Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT FX Strategist (416) 863 73 Eric.Theoret@sco
More informationweekly market view Earnings, seasonality fuel October rally Editorial
weekly market view This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group macro strategy 30 October 2015 Editorial Earnings, seasonality fuel October rally October is on course to rank as the best month
More informationGlobal Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets August 11, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2016-2017)
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (201-2017) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 201 2017 SPOT Q1a Q2a Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.30 1.30 1.29 1.33 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.30
More informationForeign Exchange: Strategy - Weekly Currency View
22 April 2013 This week s key FX themes Over recent months, the correlation between the growth rates in the US economy and the USD has increased. This week the key focus will be on the first estimate of
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to
More informationPhillipCapital. Currency Report DAILY REPORT. Page 1 of 6. November 5, 2015. Open High Low Close % Cng OI USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR
PhillipCapital Currency Report Open High Low Close % Cng OI USDINR Nov 2015 65.8625 65.9100 65.7400 65.7775-0.24 1317085 Dec 2015 66.1950 66.2650 66.1000 66.1375-0.23 195040 Jan 2016 66.5200 66.6075 66.4500
More informationWeekly Commentary 09 January 2015
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationWeekly Commentary 06 March 2015
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationJapan Economic Monthly
Japan Economic Monthly Sustained Strong Corporate Profits Point to Increasing Employment and Capital Expenditures REI TSURUTA TOORU KANAHORI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 1 OCTOBER (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION
More informationth 2013 September 09 FX Market Headlines United States Euro Zone United Kingdom Japan
th 2013 September 09 FX Market Headlines United States Euro Zone United Kingdom Japan Important Disclosure Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets
More informationForecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014
Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn
More informationRMB Internationalization and RMB Offshore Markets Development
RMB Internationalization and RMB Offshore Markets Development Dr. Qin Xiao Former Chairman, China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank Council Member, Hong Kong Financial Services Development Council
More informationWhat is Forex Trading?
What is Forex Trading? Foreign exchange, commonly known as Forex or FX, is the exchange of one currency for another at an agreed exchange price on the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Forex is the world
More informationDual Currency Investment. Product Sheet
Dual Investment Product Sheet 2 Dual Investment Product Sheet This Product Sheet must be read in conjunction with the Dual s and Conditions and the Dual Investment Mandate which contains a Product Checklist
More informationFUNDS TM. G10 Currencies: White Paper. A Monetary Policy Analysis FUNDS. The Authority on Currencies
FUNDS White Paper The Authority on Currencies Merk Investments LLC Research MAY 2012 G10 Currencies: A Monetary Policy Analysis Merk Monetary Score favors currencies of, and Canada; disfavors currencies
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation
More informationKE Forex Product Term Sheet
KE Forex Product Term Sheet ** Please note that Page 1-5 is for your reference, and only Page 7 is required to be completed and returned. What is leveraged trading in Forex (Foreign Exchange) Contracts?
More informationPhone: 1800 886 514 (Press '1' for Trade Desk or '2' for Enquiries)
POPULAR MARKETS Market Name Brackets = Out of Hours Spread 24hr Fixed Spread Contract Value per Index Point/Pip Margin per Unit Trade Per Phone: 1800 886 514 AUD/USD 0.8 (0.8) $1 0.50% 0.0001 Open Monday
More informationJune 2010 Can Central and Eastern Europe Resist the Debt Crisis?
May 2010 June 2010 Can Central and Eastern Europe Resist the Debt Crisis? After having hurt Greece and other Euro Periphery countries, the wave of Sovereign Debt fears has reached the Central and Eastern
More informationTHE US DOLLAR, THE EURO, THE JAPANESE YEN AND THE CHINESE YUAN IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
THE US DOLLAR, THE EURO, THE JAPANESE YEN AND THE CHINESE YUAN IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ORASTEAN Ramona Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Romania Abstract: This paper exposes
More informationMERCER PORTFOLIO SERVICE MONTHLY REPORT
MERCER PORTFOLIO SERVICE MONTHLY REPORT MAY 206 Mercer Superannuation (Australia) Limited ABN 79 004 77 533 Australian Financial Services Licence # 235906 is the trustee of the Mercer Portfolio Service
More informationThailand Update. Yield Movements. Size and Composition
Thailand Update Yield Movements Thai government bond yields fell for most maturities between end-december 2009 and end-october 2010 (Figure 1). Yields for 1- and 2-year maturities rose 46 and 25 basis
More informationTRADING CURRENCIES. OhMyGeorge! Gamers Make The Best Traders! www.ohmygeorge.com
TRADING CURRENCIES 101 OhMyGeorge! Gamers Make The Best Traders! 1 CONTENT PART 1 What is currencies trading? p.3 PART 2 Reading a currency quote p.6 PART 3 How to get started? p.10 PART 4 Forex trading
More informationCapital preservation strategy update
Client Education Summit 2012 Capital preservation strategy update Head of Institutional Fixed Income Investments, Americas October 9, 2012 Topics for discussion 1 Capital preservation strategies 2 3 4
More informationDanske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,
Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements
More information