Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure (ex autos, gasoline and building materials) of 0.3% m/m (in line with consensus) as consumption is getting a boost from lower gasoline prices and solid job growth. Headline retail sales will be dragged down by falling gasoline sales (driven by lower prices) and we expect an increase of 0.1% m/m. The US also releases industrial production and Empire index today. We look for a further decline in the German ZEW expectations index. It has been declining moderately for five months and we expect it to fall again in September to 17 from 25 following the EM turmoil during August. We expect that UK CPI inflation declined to % y/y in August from 0.1% y/y in July. The fall in headline inflation is due to lower non-energy industrial goods inflation and services inflation while changes in energy and food prices are not expected to contribute to either higher or lower inflation. Core inflation surprised on the upside in July and increased to 1.2% y/y. We expect that core inflation declined to % y/y in August from 1.2% y/y in July. In Sweden Riksbank deputy governor Per Jansson gives a presentation on monetary policy and wage formation. Selected Market News The Chinese stock market continues to fall. The Shenzen index is down around 3%, hitting the lowest level since February last year. Otherwise markets have been fairly calm overnight with the US S&P future broadly flat and US bond yields and EUR/USD trading mostly sideways. The CNY is broadly flat since yesterday. Financial markets seem to be sidelined awaiting the important Fed meeting on Thursday. Market overview USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 07:30 1 day,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) , % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK Selected readings from Danske Bank Today Overall, there were no big surprises in the statement released by the Bank of Japan this morning, see statement. The JPY gained slightly as there were no signs of further easing. The central bank still expects the Japanese economy to continue to recover moderately despite a decline in GDP in Q2. BoJ notes that exports and production are affected by the slowdown in emerging economies. BoJ expects inflation to remain around 0 for the time being due to effects of the decline in energy prices. There are no comments on the risks to BoJ s inflation outlook and no comments on the likelihood of CPI rising to 2% in FY16 which according to most analysts appears to be almost impossible. Focus now turns to the Kuroda s press conference at 8:30 CET. Strategy: China shows its hand Weekly Focus: Feds to remain on hold [Tex Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren alvo@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi Markets Sweden. Riksbank deputy Per Jansson speaks at a seminar arranged by the Swedish Trade Union LO, about monetary policy and wage formation. Presentation slides are due for release at 08:20 CET. We expect him to emphasise the inflation target as a nominal anchor for wage formation and perhaps give a comment on the current strength of the SEK, as this may be considered in wage negotiations as well as being an important factor for the inflation outlook. Fixed Income Markets On Wednesday Germany will tap EUR2bn of long maturity bonds (2046) and this marks two weeks of heavy European government bond supply in the long end (Ireland, Italy, Belgium and Germany). Once this is out of the way, we see room for the long end to perform and hence stick to our flattener view as we approach Q4. There is close to no scarcity premium priced in the long end and room to perform on more QE from ECB (our expectation as the response to the inadequate inflation outlook). Furthermore, as the 30y Germany will be the last tap of the year in that maturity, we think the natural long-end selling pressure from issuers will diminish, making room for curves to flatten. FX Markets EUR/SEK has made a sustained move from above 9.60 just a few weeks ago to now trade in the lower end of the long-standing interval. We think the range will hold for now and thus see limited further downside in the cross from here. Notwithstanding some deterioration in early September, the stream of Swedish data over the summer has largely surprised on the upside; however, we still look for negative inflation surprises over the autumn, which should keep EUR/SEK bid. The FX market will first chew on the BoJ decision but later today the US retail sales report has the potential to move expectations about the Fed: if we are right in seeing downside risks to the report this could prove the final blow to a September Fed hike, sending USD lower for now. US S&P500 future Fri Thu Fri Mon Mon Tue US 10y gov yield Global FX Fri Tue Wed Thu Mon Tue EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Fri Tue Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Fri September

3 Key figures and events Tuesday, September 15, 2015 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 8:45 FRF HICP m/m y/y Aug.. 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% -0.5% 0.2% 10:00 NOK Trade balance NOK bn Aug :30 GBP CPI m/m y/y Aug 0.2% % 0.2% % -0.2% 0.1% 10:30 GBP CPI core y/y Aug % % 1.2% 10:30 GBP PPI - input m/m y/y Aug -0.9% -12.4% 10:30 GBP PPI - output m/m y/y Aug -0.1% -1.6% -0.1% -1.6% 11:00 EUR Employment m/m y/y 2nd quarter 0.1% 0.8% 11:00 DEM ZEW current situation Index Sep :00 DEM ZEW expectations Index Sep :00 EUR Trade balance EUR bn Jul :30 USD Retail sales control group m/m Aug 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 14:30 USD Retail sales less autos m/m Aug -0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 14:30 USD Retail sales less autos and gas m/m Aug 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14:30 USD Retail sales m/m Aug 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 14:30 USD Empire Manufacturing PMI Index Sep :15 USD Industrial production m/m Aug -0.2% 0.6% 15:15 USD Manufacturing production m/m Aug -0.2% -0.3% 0.8% 15:15 USD Capacity utilization % Aug 77.8% 78.0% Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 15 September

4 Today s market data: 15 September 2015 STOCKS S&P500 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close DJSTOXX % 0 Max 0.3 Max 1.5 OMXC % Min Min OMXS % OSE BX % Close DOW JONES % Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets Grey line indicates opening of US markets NASDAQ % 1 month -6.6% 1 month -9.2% S&P % Year-to-date -5.1% Year-to-date 0.5% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR/USD Intraday EUR 17:00 07:30 Gold, $ USD : JPY day Max 114 GBP month Min 113 NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB Oil, Brent, $ CRB, Raw Industrials YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Spread, Policy Rate 3M bp 17:00 07:30, bp USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.7 Max 2.2 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.7 Min 2.2 USD2Y GBP JPY 10Y (lhs) 0 0 DKK USD Y (rhs) SEK :30(-1)* 17:00, bp NOK DEM 10Y PLN DKK 10Y SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield Spread to Germany USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve German Yield Curve Max Max Min Min #### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) Non-finan. Credit spread, itraxx s. 11* 07:30 1 day 1 month Credit spreads USD 10Y * Ask price ** Ask price Swap Spread, bp** Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17: EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Sep Finan. Sub NOK 10Y itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) :00 * As of closing previous trading day 07: PLN M future USD 17:00 07:30 07: JPY day month 2.34 GBP month Year-to-date CHF Year-t-date Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 4 15 September

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication September

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission September

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