Heimstaden Q3 15: steady performance with moderate leverage

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1 Investment Research 13 November 2015 Heimstaden Q3 15: steady performance with moderate leverage Heimstaden delivered a stable performance in Q3, with continued good growth thanks to earlier made acquisitions and a high occupancy rate. Leveraged remained moderate, with a net loan-to-value of 53% at end September (57% if treating 50% of preference shares as debt). Over time we expect the company to make additional acquisitions, with a consequent increase in leverage. Still, we expect Heimstaden to maintain a (net) loan-to-value below 65%. We maintain our view of company as a BB credit, with its bonds one notch lower at BB-. We regard Heimstaden s bonds as fairly priced relative to sector peers in the BB category in the SEK market. Continued high occupancy rate Heimstaden s rental income rose some 43% to SEK179m in Q3, mainly thanks to earlier made acquisitions. The occupancy rate of the residential property portfolio remained high at 99.2% (Q2 15: 99.4%). The EBITDA interest coverage rose somewhat further to 2.3x. During the quarter Heimstaden announced acquisitions of property portfolios in Lund (11,200sqm) and Karlskrona (43,400sqm), while it divested properties in Trelleborg (58,293sqm - to its 40%-owned associated company Nordhalla). Heimstaden also established a new joint venture, Heimstaden Projektutveckling, for potential own development of residential properties that could serve as a complement to the company s present business model of acquiring and upgrading properties. Leverage still low Heimstaden s funds from operations rose to SEK68m (Q3 14: SEK38m), while operating cash flow after working capital changes rose to SEK53m (Q3 14: SEK18m). Acquisitions and investments amounted to SEK640m, with disposals of 31m. Total debt fell from SEK6.6bn in Q2 to SEK6.7bn in Q3, with cash and liquid holdings of SEK1bn. With total property values of SEK10.6bn at end Q3, the net loan-to-value ratio rose from 51% at end Q2 to 53% at end September (gross LTV: 63%). Overview (SEKm) Q3 14 Q2 15 Q3 15 y/y q/q Rental income % -5% EBITDA % 4% Net interest expenses % -20% Net income % -82% CFO % -542% Investment properties 7,226 10,010 10,649 47% 6% Total debt 4,147 6,604 6,707 62% 2% Net debt 2,684 5,119 5, % 11% Equity 3,323 5,205 5,355 61% 3% Ratios Q3 14 Q2 15 Q3 15 EBITDA margin 59% 59% 65% LTM EBITDA interest coverage (x) 1.6x 2.0x 2.3x LTV 57% 66% 63% Adj. net debt/ltm adj. EBITDA (x) 10.9x 14.9x 14.8x Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets. Properties for divestment excluded in debt and property value. Facts Sector: Real Estate Corporate ticker: HEIMST Equity value: SEK5bn Market cap: Not listed Ratings: Rating agencies: Not rated Danske Bank Markets: Issuer rating BB / S Senior unsecured: BB- / S Analysts: Louis Landeman Emil Hjalmarsson Profitability SEKm Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets Leverage EURm 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Rental income EBITDA adj. EBITDA margin 26.0x 21.0x 16.0x 11.0x 6.0x 0 1.0x Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Adj. Net debt Equity Adj. net debt / LTM adj. EBITDA Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 4 of this report.

2 Our view Heimstaden delivered a stable performance in Q3, with continued good growth thanks to earlier made acquisitions and a high occupancy rate. Leverage remained moderate, with a net loan-to-value of 53% at end September (57% if treating 50% of preference shares as debt). Over time we expect the company to make additional acquisitions, with a consequent increase in leverage. Still, we expect Heimstaden to maintain a (net) loan-tovalue below 65%. We maintain our view of company as a BB credit, with its bonds one notch lower at BB-. We regard Heimstaden s bonds as fairly priced relative to sector peers in the BB category in the SEK market. Forecast SEKm Q1 15 Q2 15 Q E 2016E Total revenue EBITDA Net interest expenses FFO Acquisitions (net) ,000-1,000 CFO Cash and cash equivalents 197 1,485 1, Investment property 8,634 10,010 10,649 11,460 12,789 Total debt 5,504 6,604 6,604 6,467 7,322 Net debt 5,307 5,119 5,119 6,017 6,872 EBITDA margin 44% 59% 65% 60% 61% ICR (x) 1.8x 2.0x 2.3x LTV gross 64% 66% 63% 56% 57% FFO/net debt 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% Net debt/ebitda (x) 17.9x 14.9x 14.8x Source: Company data, Danske Bank Markets estimates 2 13 November

3 Fixed Income Credit Research Thomas Hovard Head of Credit Research Henrik René Andresen Credit Portfolios Knut-Ivar Bakken Fish farming Iver Christian Båtvik Seismic Gabriel Bergin Strategy, Industrials Brian Børsting Industrials Ola Heldal TMT Emil Hjalmarsson Real Estate, Construction Lars Holm Financials Katrine Jensen Financials Louis Landeman TMT, Industrials Jakob Magnussen Utilities, Energy Øyvind Mossige Oil services Niklas Ripa High Yield, Industrials Bjørn Kristian Røed Shipping Mads Rosendal Industrials, Pulp & Paper Sondre Dale Stormyr Offshore rigs HaseebSyed High Yield, Norway Find the latest Credit Research Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: DNSK<GO> 3 13 November

4 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The authors of the research report are Louis Landeman, Analyst and Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank, its affiliates, subsidiaries and staff may perform services for or solicit business from Heimstaden and may hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in, the financial instruments mentioned in this research report. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts of Danske Bank and undertakings with which the Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts have close links are, however, not permitted to invest in financial instruments that are covered by the relevant Equity or Corporate Bonds analyst or the research sector to which the analyst is linked. Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to Heimstaden and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding Heimstaden that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report. Since 6 July 2015, Heimstaden s shareholdings in Danske Bank have exceeded 5% of the total issued share capital. As an investment bank, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services, including investment banking services. It is possible that Danske Bank and/or its affiliates and/or its subsidiaries might seek to become engaged to provide such services to Heimstaden in the next three months. Danske Bank has made no agreement with Heimstaden to write this research report. No parts of this research report have been disclosed to Heimstaden. No recommendations or opinions have been disclosed to Heimstaden and no amendments have accordingly been made to the same before dissemination of the research report. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request November

5 Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Credit Update: This research report will be updated on a quarterly basis after Heimstaden s quarterly results statements. Scandi Handbook: This research report will be updated biannually, usually in April and October. See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. Recommendation structure Investment recommendations are based on the expected development in the credit profile as well as relative value compared with the sector and peers. As at 30 September 2015 Danske Bank Markets had investment recommendations on 51 corporate bond issuers. The distribution of recommendations is represented in the distribution of recommendations column below. The proportion of issuers corresponding to each of the recommendation categories above to which Danske Bank provided investment banking services in the previous 12 months ending 30 September 2015 is shown below. Rating Anticipated performance Time horizon Distribution of recommendations Investment banking relationships Overweight Outperformance relative to peer group 3 months 27% 50% Marketweight Performance in line with peer group 3 months 51% 35% Underweight Underperformance relative to peer group 3 months 22% 45% Changes in recommendation within past 12 months: Date New recommendation Old recommendation 25 November 2014 Not Rated N/A General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors November

6 Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission November

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