Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 March 2014 Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Factors such as index extension, pension flows and redemptions are expected to support in particular the 10-year segment of the Swedish government bond curve over the next couple of months. Focus will also be on inflation data this week in Sweden. We expect core inflation to be 0.25% below the Riksbank s forecast. Norges Bank is introducing a new 10-year bond tomorrow (11 March) worth NOK6bn. Long-dated NGBs have already suffered on the surprise announcement so good initial entry levels could be possible for long positions. However, be aware of further taps in this bond over the next couple of quarters. Elsewhere, focus will be on core inflation in Norway which is expected to stay at 2.4% in February. Norway remains one of the few OECD countries not struggling with too low inflation. Financial forecasts See our monthly Yield Forecast Update that covers Scandi and core markets See FX Forecast Update for our latest FX Forecasts The lack of action from the ECB last week put depreciation pressure on DKK. However, we still firmly believe that the number of rate hikes priced in Denmark over the next two years is far too excessive given the strong Danish external balances. Focus will be on inflation this week. In the FX sphere, we still like the Norwegian krone relative to the Swedish krona. In particular, the SGB flows (due to foreign ownership) could be a headwind together with low inflation to the Swedish krona over the next couple of months. We continue to keep an eye on M&A activity. In general, the lack of ECB action last week put upward pressure on EUR/Scandi crosses as relative rates remain an important FX driver. Gap between Danske Bank and Riksbank s CPIF forecast 2014 Core CPI close to target in Norway Source: Riksbank, Danske Bank Markets Source: Danske Bank Markets, Macrobond Chief Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen arr@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 9 this report.

2 Sweden: Inflation and value in 10Y bonds In Sweden, the week ahead features the most important input when calling the Riksbank s next move: inflation. We expect a virtually unchanged negative difference from January of 0.25pp between the Riksbank s forecast and the outcome. It means that the both the core measure (CPIF) and the headline reading (CPI) will drop one tenth to 0.3% and -0.3% y/y, respectively. The big question is whether the current deviation is sufficient to push the Riksbank into another cut in April. Financial markets do not think so and our base scenario is unchanged as well. However, that is what we think the Riksbank will do. What we think it should do (cut by 50-75bp) is another story. Considering the minutes from the last monetary policy meeting and some notable speeches from the Riksbank, we would not be completely surprised by some monetary policy reaction already by April. Gap between Danske Bank and Riksbank s CPIF forecast 2014 But even if the Riksbank stays on hold in April, we still see immense pressure on the Swedish central bank throughout To the right, we show the deviation between our CPIF forecast and the Riksbank s forecast. In addition to inflation, Statistics Sweden will release labour market data including unemployment on Thursday (at 09:30 CET), which will also weigh on the upcoming rate decision. Source: Danske Bank Markets, Riksbank Value in 10Y SGBs vs bunds In Reading the Markets Sweden we argue that flows will support in particular 10Y SGBs versus bunds over the next couple of months. Our view is based on the following three factors: 1. An index extension will take place on Tuesday. The OMRX-BOND ALL index will get 0.26Y longer. In a historical perspective, this is a relatively large extension for such a broad index where both government bonds and mortgage bonds are included. Noteworthy is that the share of government bonds increases by 2.8 percentage points relative to mortgage bonds. It should increase the interest in buying longer dated government bonds as they offer more duration than the, on average, shorter mortgage bonds. 2. At the end of March, pension payment flows will reach the pension companies that manage pensions for local government employees. We believe that an estimated SEK7-8bn will be invested in fixed income instruments. In the past three years, spreads versus Germany have moved in favour of Sweden after these payments. We think we could see similar effects this year. 3. Significant bond redemptions are due in April and May, in particular in the relatively large loan SGB1041 (settlement amount will be close to SEK83bn). On top of that, Kommuninvest K1405 matures (SEK16.7bn in settlement amount) on 5 May. The non-benchmark index linked loan SGBi3001 matures on 1 April, giving investors a further cash injection of SEK4.2bn. In total, investors in government and public risk will receive nearly SEK104bn in cash. Three mortgage bonds will also mature over the same months (SCBC126, SWH166 and LFH506, in total around SEK41bn in settlement amounts), even though these have already been bought back to a more manageable level by the issuers. During the April-May period, SEK14bn in government bonds will be issued through regular auctions. During April, the SNDO 2 10 March

3 plans to issue SEK30bn in T-bills. If we assume the same volume in May, this gives a total issued volume in nominal government papers of SEK74bn. Maturing government bonds and bills add up to SEK152bn. On a net basis, a significant volume of government papers will thus disappear. Flows and ECB could give some krona headwind The above mentioned factors should be supportive for Swedish government bonds relative to bunds. However, given that a part of in particular the SGB1041 might be owned by foreigners, the SEK might see some headwind from flows in April and May. EUR/SEK is furthermore supported by the ECB decision last week to keep rates unchanged and not to stop the SMP sterilisation despite the current low rate of inflation. Add furthermore the risk of low Swedish inflation numbers over the next couple of months and more easing from the Riksbank and the risk seems to be tilted to upside for EUR/SEK for now. We are short SEK through a long NOK/SEK recommendation that we initiated on 20 January. Note though that M&A activity in both Norway and Sweden over the next couple of months could result in some erratic moves in NOK/SEK. The Norwegian krone is supported by the Bayer EUR 2.1 cash bid for Algatec and the Swedish krona is supported by the EUR 6.7 Volkswagen bid to buy out the minority holders of Scania March

4 Norway: Inflation and new 10y NGB In Norway, inflation has been accelerating over the past year, due mainly to the weaker krone pushing up imported prices. As the slide in the krone continued until recently and there is naturally a certain time lag before currency movements have an impact on prices in the stores, we expect this trend to continue for a while yet. This is supported by prices for consumer goods at importer level (into Norway) in Q4 being 10% higher than a year earlier. Therefore, we expect core inflation to hold at 2.4% y/y in February, which would still be somewhat higher than Norges Bank assumed in its December monetary policy report. We also believe that the risk is on the upside but we would stress that the monthly data can be very volatile. If we are right, this ought to boost the krone and push up short-term yields in Norway. Hence, relative inflation is once again expected to support our call for a higher NOK/SEK. Remember, Norway is still one of the few OECD countries not struggling with too low inflation. Mixed signals last week Last week was a mixed week for Norwegian data. Our conviction that growth will return to trend during H1 is built on three pillars. First, we expect the housing market to stabilise and so present no risk to the real economy. It was therefore reassuring that house prices climbed in February and that turnover held up. Second, we believe that higher global growth and a weaker krone will help offset the negative effects of slower growth in oil investment. It was reassuring to see that the oil companies investment plans for the current year are at the very least unchanged. The quarterly economic report from employers federation NHO also revealed growing optimism in the business sector. Although the PMI was somewhat lower in February, this was due mainly to the weaker outlook for employment. Norway: Inflation gaining momentum Source: Macrobond Norway: Oil investment set to rise further this year Source: Macrobond Third, we believe that the banks have now come far enough in adjusting to the new capital requirements that credit practices will be more relaxed than last year. The January figures for credit growth showed, however, that growth in lending to both businesses and households has slowed considerably in recent months. This may, of course, be down to reduced demand for credit rather than tighter lending policies, which is supported by Norges Bank s latest lending survey. Despite these somewhat mixed signals, we believe that the data supports our main scenario for 2014 of growth returning to trend. This would also support our expectation of a general recovery in the krone and somewhat higher yields over the course of the year. Lack of ECB easing is a risk factor for our 8.00 EUR/NOK call Our 2014 call that EUR/NOK will head for 8.00 throughout 2014 is based on the view that the ECB will decide to ease monetary policy further in Q2 when it becomes clear that eurozone inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB projections. However, as the ECB meeting showed last week, we might be in for a few months with general EUR support that will tend to push EUR/NOK higher (and EUR/SEK). Hence, we continue to prefer being long NOK through long NOK/SEK. Note though that we are still short EUR/NOK through a risk reversal in our 2014 FX Top Trades March

5 New 10Y government bond introduced by Norges Bank Norges Bank is introducing a new 10-year government bond (maturity 14 March 2024) tomorrow (11 March) worth NOK6bn. As communicated earlier, Norges Bank is thereby deviating from its previous pattern of introducing a new 11-year bond every other year. Despite earlier indications, Norges Bank also rules out the possibility of issuing a longerterm bond this year. Hence, speculation about the introduction of a 15-year Norwegian government bond were effectively stopped last week. It came as a surprise to the market that this initial auction came in March, as all current bonds have initially been introduced in May. All Norwegian government bonds except the shortest one sold off considerably after the announcement and the yield spread to German and Swedish bonds with nine-year maturity has increased by about 7bp and 10bp, respectively. The amount to be issued and sold in the market NOK6bn is higher than for normal auctions but is no surprise given that it is a new bond. However, the volume has undoubtedly contributed to the spread widening. We expect the bond to be sold relatively cheaply, as it is a new paper with relatively high volume. The 7Y and 9Y bonds (474 and 475) currently trade with a ASW of about 22bp, from 28bp a couple of days ago. We estimate that the auction will give a ASW spread of 17-20bp. This will give an interesting yield spread to both German and Swedish bonds. Buyers should be aware that Norges Bank is likely to tap this bond multiple times in the coming months but this initial auction could prove to be very interesting entry points for buyers March

6 Denmark: Reserve figures in focus Danish inflation down again in February Inflation probably declined a bit in Denmark in February to 0.8% y/y from 1.0% y/y in January. February s data contains the annual update of the index for housing rent, which is 20.1% of total CPI. That makes the February CPI number both more unpredictable and very important for establishing the level of year-on-year inflation for the rest of the year. We have very little indication of rents developments but it does have some correlation with total CPI inflation net of tax changes up to the middle of the previous year, which is used to regulate some rental contracts. That would indicate a slightly lower growth in rents this time than last year, which is what we have in the forecast. Other than that, February is also the month where clothes prices rise after the sale in December and January, but price reductions were a bit more modest than usual this time and so we expect price rises to be on the low side also. Food prices also often increase rather strongly in February, but German data suggests a more modest impact from that this year. Even though it looks like the year-on-year inflation rate will decline this time, it also still looks like it will go up again in the coming months because of the base effect. We look for a top of around 1.5% y/y during the summer. Hawkish ECB increases risk of Danish independent rate hike, but do not forget about the healthy external balances The ECB disappointed us and the market last week as it stood comfortably with the outlook for inflation and therefore did not deliver any new elements of monetary easing at its meeting. EUR/DKK rose above following the meeting the highest since January last year. With the lack of clear signals on further easing we may see further upside to the euro, which all else equal increases the risk of Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) needing to intervene and subsequently raise interest rates over the coming months. However, it is important to note that we did not see any DN intervention in January and February where EUR/DKK was also at a relatively high level which normally has triggered intervention. One might speculate if the DN has in fact lifted the bar for intervention in the currency market. Hence, a possible rate hike does not look imminent. But we do see a risk of an independent rate hike in Denmark of 10bp over the next three months based on EUR/DKK spot level and the negative carry on long DKK positions in the FX forward market. But do not forget that the strong Danish external surplus on the other hand puts a fundamental appreciation pressure on the krone. Strong Danish external surplus Source: Statistics Denmark, Danske Bank Markets Tomorrow, January s balance of payments statistics are scheduled for publication. Seasonal factors and a slight drop in the oil price probably weighed a bit on the mounting Danish current account surplus in January which is why we expect it to have dropped to DKK8.5bn from DKK9.4bn. The slight drop does not change the fact that Denmark currently holds a gigantic current account surplus of around 7% of GDP the largest surplus in more than 60 years of available statistics. At present there is also a large surplus on the portfolio investment balance (excluding Danish bonds denominated in foreign currency). It currently amounts to more than 5% of GDP, while there is a small deficit of around 2.5% of GDP on the balance for direct investment. The accumulated surplus of the three is currently close to 10% of GDP March

7 Hence, we can easily conclude that the krone benefits from a benign balance of payment situation, which reduces the overall pressure for intervention and independent rate hikes in Denmark. Steep Danish CITA curve All in all it might be worth considering going against the current pricing in the Danish money market. It implies a 10bp rate hike over the next two months and at least two more for the following 16 months. We see no reason why one independent rate hike of 10bp should not be enough to secure a stable EUR/DKK given the Danish external balances. Hence, both outright and relative to the EONIA curve the Danish CITA curve looks very steep to us. Steep Danish CITA relative to EONIA curve. Rate hike already priced 1.30% Pricing DKK-OIS 1m swap 1.10% 0.90% 0.70% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10% -0.10% Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Sep15 Mar16 Sep16 Mar17 Previous EOD Previous EOD Current policy rate Next policy move Source: Danske Bank Markets 7 10 March

8 Scandi market movers ahead Scandi events Event Period Danske Consensus Previous Mon 03-Mar 9:00 DKK Wholesale prices m/m y/y Jan 0.3% -1.4% Tue 04-Mar 10:00 NOK Wage index manufacturing q/q 4th quarter 1.1% 9:30 SEK Underlying inflation CPIF m/m y/y Jan -0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 10:00 NOK Trade balance NOK bn Jan 33.4 Wed 05-Mar 9:30 SEK Retail sales m/m y/y Jan -0.8% 1.8% 9:30 SEK Riksbank Minutes 10:00 NOK Unemployment (LFS) % Dec 3.5% 3.5% 9:00 DKK ILO-unemployment s.a. (quarterly figures) 4th quarter Thurs 06-Mar 9:00 DKK Gross unemployment, s.a. K (%) Jan (5.6%) (5.6%) 9:00 DKK Confidence indicator, industry s.a. Index Feb 9:30 SEK Trade balance SEK bn Jan :00 DKK ILO-unemployment s.a. (annual figures) Jan Fri 07-Mar 9:00 DKK GDP (preliminary) q/q y/y 4th quarter 0.25% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 9:00 DKK CB's securities statistics Jan 9:00 DKK Foriegn portfolio investments Jan 9:30 SEK GDP q/q y/y 4th quarter 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 9:30 SEK PPI m/m y/y Jan 1.2% 0.3% 9:30 SEK Wages (blue collars/white collars) y/y Dec 2.1% 10:00 NOK Unemployment % Feb 2.9% 3.0% 10:00 NOK Retail sales, s.a. m/m Jan 0.8% 0.1% 9:00 SEK Manufacturing confidence Index Feb :00 SEK Economic Tendency Survey Index Feb Mon NOK Consumer indicator Net. Bal. 1st quarter 17.6 Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 8 10 March

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