Danske Daily. Today's key points

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Danske Daily. Today's key points"

Transcription

1 Investment research Danske Daily March 11, 2009 Editor: Allan von Mehren, , Today's key points US stocks rally over 6% on upbeat comments from Citigroup. Bond yields rose further. NOK and SEK gains on higher risk appetite. Fed might consider buying treasuries when it meets next week. The macro calendar is very thin today. German factory orders and inflation expectations survey in Norway are the only releases of interest. Markets Overnight Equity markets were on fire yesterday as Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit delivered a very upbeat message in an internal memo to all Citigroup employees. Pandit said Citigroup had a strong start to 2009 and had its best profit performance in over a year. The message came as a complete surprise to the market as focus lately rather has been on Citigroups ability to survive as a private bank. The Citigroup share price rose 38% on the day and US stocks rose throughout the session with the S&P 500 ending up 6.4% the strongest daily increase since November last year. The rise in risk appetite has also benefited the credit market which saw a tightening of credit spreads. The stock market rally continued in Asia where the S&P future is up close to 1%. Nikkei is up 4.5%. Japanese machine orders were released overnight and fell 39.5% y/y close to consensus expectations of %. Metal prices and the Baltic Freight Rate rose again yesterday, inspired by the rise in equity markets and signs of an Asian recovery. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Fed is considering increasing its asset purchase programme. WSJ reports that the Fed may again be looking at buying treasuries after the success of the Bank of England last week in pushing UK yields markedly lower. The Fed is due to meet next week to decide whether new measures should be taken. Bond yields continued to rise yesterday on the back of the sharp rise in equities and continued supply worries. The 10-year US bond yield is again trading above 3.0%. In the FX market the CHF has weakened a bit further overnight while the JPY and EUR are broadly unchanged. SEK and NOK both strengthened yesterday and overnight on the rise in risk appetite. EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK are trading around and 8.85 respectively this morning.

2 Today's events Period Our forecast Consensus Latest CNY Trade balance USD bn Feb :30 AUD Wespac consumer confidence Mar -4.6% 00:50 JPY Machine orders m/m y/y Jan -5.0% -40.2%-1.7% -26.8% 00:50 JPY Domestic CGPI m/m y/y Feb -0.6% -1.2% -1.0% -0.2% 09:30 DKK Current account DKK bn Jan :00 NOK Norges Bank inflation expectations survey 10:30 GBP Trade balance GBP bln. Jan :00 DEM Industrial orders m/m y/y Jan -2.5% % -26.5%-6.9% -25.1% 12:00 USD MBA mortgage applications % :00 USD Budget statement USD bn Feb :30 NZD PMI Index Feb 42 Global Daily The improved sentiment on equity markets and focus on supply in the US sent yields higher on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. US yields continued higher after the close in Europe, and a negative opening could be on the cards in European bond markets this morning. The US treasury is selling USD18bn in 10-year notes today, so supply will remain in focus along with the equity markets. US 10 year treasury yields are back at 3% its highest level since November last year and it will be interesting to see if it moves significantly above this threshold in the coming days. German factory orders are the only interesting economic data on the agenda today. We expect a decline of 2.7%. This is clearly a bad number for the economy, but it will be less atrocious than the collapse in factory orders seen in recent months. The tendency in FX markets was clear yesterday; while equity prices soared, defensive, low-risk currencies were left in the cold and high-beta currencies rallied. It seems like the pound can depreciate in both negative and positive markets, while the euro tends to be positively correlated with risk appetite, at least against the US dollar. Ahead of the German factory orders data today (12:00 CET), we prefer not to be long euros, as the numbers are set to exhibit the abrupt downturn in European activity. Long USD positions are on the other hand not recommended prior to the release of the US budget statement (19:00 CET). Once again, focus in FX markets will probably be elsewhere than on scheduled data releases. Scandi Daily The SEK outperformed all other G10 currencies yesterday in a genuine equity rally despite data showing that industrial production and orders merely collapsed and the activity index plunged. In fact, there is no worse development in industrial production on record in Sweden. This illustrates exactly what has been the problem for the SEK for a very long time; markets have simply been too downbeat to foster a SEK comeback even though almost everybody has agreed that the currency has been substantially undervalued and possessed huge potential. A couple of days with steadily positive, but less aggressive, stock markets and EUR/SEK can easily drop below 11, where it eventually belongs. In Norway we received inflation data yesterday and it turned out, once again, that core inflation is far higher than expected. This underlined our long-held view that although the Norwegian economy will suffer from the global crisis, it is in a better economic situation with higher domestic cost pressures than most places elsewhere. While we still expect another 50bp cut by Norges Bank bringing the folio rate down to 2% flat, we have a hard time seeing Norges Bank keeping up with other central banks and cutting further than that. There are no major key macro figures due out today in Scandinavia. Inflation expectations in Norway and Labour Market Board data for unemployment in Sweden are both due, but neither is likely to be a market mover. Rather, the fate of the Scandinavian markets is likely to be dictated by factors such as the equity market and possible news of crisis management in the CEE countries. DANSKE BANK 2

3 Fixed Income 17:00 07:3 0, bp USD 10Y USD 30Y JPY 10Y :30(-1)* :0 0 1, bp DEM 10Y DKK 10Y SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day FX EUR 17:0 0 07:30 USD JPY GBP NOK SEK DKK PLN USD 17:0 0 07:30 JPY GBP CHF DANSKE BANK 3

4 Today's market data STOCKS Close S&P500 Intrad ay, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % DJSTOXX Max 6.5 Max 5.8 OMXC Min -0.1 Min -0.5 OMXS OSE B X Close Ti me DOW JONES 6926 Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets Grey li ne in d ic at e s op ening of US ma rke t s NASDAQ month -13.7% 1 month -14.2% S&P Ye ar-to-date -20.3% Ye ar-to-date -18.3% NIKKEI (07:30) % 4.6% 5.4% 3.4% 5.8% 7.1% 6.4% 4.6% FX & COM MODITIES EU R/USD Intraday EU R 17:00 07:30 +/ - Go ld, $ Oil, Bre nt, $ USD : JPY day Max 129 GB P month Min 126 NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB CRB, Raw PLN M future Industrials USD 17:00 07:30 07: JPY day month GB P month Ye ar-to-date CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Policy R ate 3M Spread, bp 17:00 07:30, bp USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 1.1 Max EUR USD 30Y Min 0.9 Min GB P JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1 )* 17:00, bp NOK DEM 10Y PLN D KK 10Y USD2Y (left axis) SEK 1 0Y USD10Y (right axis) NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield S pread to Germany USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKK SEK NOK PL N US Yield Curve Ge rman Yield Curve Max ### Max ### Min ### 1.00 Min ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y DEM2Y DEM5Y DEM10Y D-t-D (right axis) 0 7:30 ( left ax is ) 1 month ago (left axis) D-t-D (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) Credit s prea d, itraxx s. 10 * Swap Rates** Swap Spread, bp** 17:00 07:30,bp 1 7:00 0 7:30 07:3 0 1 da y 1 month USD 10Y USD 10Y Europe JPY 10Y JPY 10Y HiVol C rosso ve r :30(-1)* 17:00,bp 07:30(-1 )* 17:00 EU R 10Y EUR 10Y D KK 10Y D KK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 1 0Y SEK 10Y Finan. Sub NOK 10 Y NOK 10Y No n-fin an PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price ** Ask price Source: Bloomberg 7:30(-1 ) og 17:00 refers to the pre vious (trad e) day DANSKE BANK 4

5 DISCLOSURE This report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of Danske Bank. Danske Bank A/S is authorized by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske Bank Research Policy. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and to the Compliance Officer. Danske Bank Research departments are organized independently from and do not report to other Danske Bank business areas. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank research reports are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Investment Professionals Ethical rules and the Recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Financial models and/or methodology used in this report Danske Daily is a publication that comments on the important key macroeconomic data and events in the financial markets. Models and/or methods are described in the publication. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. All price-related data are based on yesterday's closing prices. Expected updates The publication is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report. DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for retail customers in the UK or any per-son in the US. Danske Markets is a division of Danske Bank A/S. Danske Bank A/S is authorized by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are avail-able from us on request. Copyright (C) Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. DANSKE BANK 5

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today US consumer confidence for November (Conference Board) is expected to rise slightly following a steep decline

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 April 2015 Danske Daily Market movers today It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area and the US. Euro-area

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 May 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In the euro area, the EU Commission is due to release its confidence indicators, which we expect to show some

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 February 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 February 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 2 February 24 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro-area industrial production is likely to show a decline in December following the strong gain of.8% m/m

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 April 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers No major economic data out of Europe today and no rating reports on EU sovereign bonds tonight. Focus will be on a

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Today s main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon. In our view, there are fewer arguments for a rate

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro area September consumer confidence is due for release. We expect an aboveconsensus improvement. Market

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today We expect no change to the final euro area service PMI, but look for some upside surprise in service PMI

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions March 24 Danske Daily Market movers today We have a light data calendar again today with only second tier releases such as manufacturing production in the

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering.

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering. Investment Research General Market Conditions 21 June 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering. There are no key figures of significance today.

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers It's a very thin calendar today with only tier-2 data. French industrial production is expected to rebound 0.6%

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today In Germany the first GDP estimate for 2013 as a whole will be released and indirectly this should also give

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 7 April 24 Danske Daily Market movers today A quiet start to a quiet week. German industrial production for February is the main release today and is expected

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Germany releases the first inflation data for November. The annual inflation rate (HICP) is expected to rise

More information

Scandi markets today. Fixed income markets. FX markets

Scandi markets today. Fixed income markets. FX markets Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 October 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Few things on the agenda today. No tier 1 data up for release so focus will again be on central bank talk

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Focus is on US CPI inflation for September. The headline figure should move into deflation but core CPI is expected

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 3 March 204 Danske Daily Market movers today In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in the US. We expect headline

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In an otherwise busy week we have a very thin calendar today. In terms of data releases the market will focus

More information

Scandi Markets. Fixed Income Markets. FX Markets

Scandi Markets. Fixed Income Markets. FX Markets Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 January 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the Fed meeting yesterday (see below) focus today will be on the weekly jobless claims. These have edged

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016

Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016 Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Main event today is US ISM manufacturing. We look for a stabilisation of the index after several months of decline.

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today With the deadline looming on Monday focus in the US will continue to be on the negotiations about an agreement

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 January 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers A lot of data to chew on today. Euro area kicks off with French and Spanish GDP data for Q4. France is expected

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Details on the German Q3 GDP numbers are released today and focus will be on how much private consumption

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 June 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers The ongoing negotiations between the Greek government and the creditor institutions continue to be in focus as no deal

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 June 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Market focus will continue to be on Greece, as no agreement was reached this weekend. The Greek government announced

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today German retail sales and French consumer spending figures are due for release this morning. These data are

More information

Euro area growth outlook 2012

Euro area growth outlook 2012 Euro area growth outlook 212 A rising tide lifts all boats 2 December 211 Allan von Mehren Chief Analyst Head of International Macro +45 4512 855 alvo@danskebank.dk Five reasons why euro recession will

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 December 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today ECB-president Mario Draghi will speak before the European Parliament in connection with a discussion of ECB

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers With the US market closed due to Thanksgiving, today is set to be a relatively quiet day on the data front. At

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the recent very intense days with a rate hike in the US (Wednesday) and monetary policy meetings in Norway

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015 Danske Daily Market movers today The combination of ECB s QE announcement, a weaker euro and low oil prices should lift investor confidence

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers We do not expect any big changes to Norwegian CPI, see Scandi Markets. Market overview 07:30 1 day,% It s a quiet

More information

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research 26.05.2010 Jyske Markets

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research 26.05.2010 Jyske Markets Today s Comment The debt crisis in the euro zone is still very much leaving its mark across the financial markets, and risk aversion was once again the controlling factor during the trading session on

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 2012

Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 2012 Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 202 Danske Daily Key news The ECB appears to consider setting limits on sovereign yields by pledging unlimited bond purchases German politicians

More information

European Freight Forwarding Index

European Freight Forwarding Index European Freight Forwarding Index Volume development in January 14 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Philip Levin phle@danskebank.dk +45 26 19 26 17 Important disclosures and certifications are

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers German trade balance for August could attract some attention after weak numbers for both factory orders and industrial

More information

European Freight Forwarding Index

European Freight Forwarding Index European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12

More information

IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions

IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 February 213 IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions The latest IMM data covers the week from 11 February to 19 February.

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 August 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers The eurogroup meets at 15:00 CET today to discuss the third aid package for Greece. While the agreement is expected

More information

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue Investment Research General Market Conditions 23 August 2016 Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue The euro area PMI figures for August were little changed compared with

More information

DKK: Central Bank Preview

DKK: Central Bank Preview DKK: Central Bank Preview July 2012 Kasper Kirkegaard Senior Strategist +45 45 13 70 18 kaki@danskebank.com Lars Tranberg Rasmussen Senior Strategist +45 45 12 85 34 laras@danskebank.com Anders Møller

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 May 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro industrial production is expected to decline in March in line with the movement across countries. The lower

More information

FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike

FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 March 2016 FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike We expect the Fed to keep the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50% at this week

More information

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.

More information

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Investment Research General Market Conditions 02 August 2016 US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Jobs report preview We

More information

FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014

FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014 FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014 It s the oil, stupid! Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt

More information

Weekly Credit Update

Weekly Credit Update Investment Research General Market Conditions 24 July 2009 Weekly Credit Update Summary Another week of significant spread tightening Moody s set to downgrade a large number of Nordic banks Headlines from

More information

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update, Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements

More information

Fixed Income and FX Weekly

Fixed Income and FX Weekly Fixed Income and FX Weekly Rate hikes postponed, not called off 15 August, 2011 Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen Chief Strategist, FX & Fixed Income +47 23 11 62 63 brw@first.no Good morning, In the Norwegian newspaper

More information

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets Publisher: Jyske Markets FX Research Vestergade 816 DK8600 Silkeborg Analysts: Leander Dreyer 45 89 89 71 68 Leander@jyskebank.dk Kristian Foged Schmidt 45 89 89 70 96 Kristian.schmidt @jyskebank.dk Translation:

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 5 March 24 Danske Daily Market movers today As tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict are easing, economic data will likely get some more attention again.

More information

Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit?

Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit? Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit? Jakob Ekholdt Christensen Head of Emerging Markets Research jakc@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 85 30 +45 30 58 4714 Vladimir Miklashevsky Senior Economist vlmi@danskebank.com

More information

Russia: Where to find new growth drivers?

Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Sanna Kurronen Economist +38 4 68 369 sanna.kurronen@danskebank.com 14 February 213 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page of this report.

More information

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic

More information

Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016

Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016 Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016 A 25bp cut and a dovish bias, limited EUR/NOK upside Frank Jullum Chief Analyst +47 85 40 65 40 fju@danskebank.dk Jostein Tvedt Chief Analyst +47 23 13 91 84 jtv@danskebank.dk

More information

Monthly Market Snapshot

Monthly Market Snapshot ly Market Snapshot JANUARY 2016 Key insights The New Year has begun with widespread volatility in global markets, with equities posting steep negative returns in January. The main factors driving the market

More information

Date 02.12.2010. Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive. growth in 4Q and 2011 as well. policy outlook: Despite low inflation, we expect

Date 02.12.2010. Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive. growth in 4Q and 2011 as well. policy outlook: Despite low inflation, we expect NOK Strategy Date 02.12.20 NOK Strategy Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive In trade weighted terms, the NOK exchange has depreciated somewhat over the summer, mainly reflecting markets downgrading

More information

Strategy German engine in headwind

Strategy German engine in headwind Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because

More information

Nationalbanken preview and DKK update

Nationalbanken preview and DKK update Nationalbanken preview and DKK update Jens Nærvig Pedersen Analyst Danske Bank Markets jenpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 80 61 Anders Vestergård Fischer Analyst Danske Bank Markets afis@danskebank.dk +45 45

More information

UK: Next week s agenda, December 15 Wrap-Up, Week of December 8

UK: Next week s agenda, December 15 Wrap-Up, Week of December 8 Macro Research Presentation December, 8 UK: Next week s agenda, December Wrap-Up, Week of December 8 The outlook for Britain's economy darkened on Thursday with news of a sharp contraction in manufacturing

More information

U.S. Market ASIA. EUR/USD 1.1274 1.1240-0.30% Global Currency GBP/USD 1.3317 1.3266-0.36% NDF

U.S. Market ASIA. EUR/USD 1.1274 1.1240-0.30% Global Currency GBP/USD 1.3317 1.3266-0.36% NDF 12/09/2016 MARKET OVERVIEW Asian markets are completely in the red, continuing with the negative trend from the Friday. Talks of FED, amidst the rebound in US dollar led to the fall in risk appetite. US

More information

Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015

Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015 Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015 Rates unchanged; easing bias reiterated Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst arr@danskebank.dk

More information

Africa in context. Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009, Area: World Bank 2008 GDP. Share ($Bn) (% of Total)

Africa in context. Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009, Area: World Bank 2008 GDP. Share ($Bn) (% of Total) The Untold Story of the African Growth Miracle Lars Christensen Chief Analyst, Head of Emerging Markets Research +45 45 12 85 30 (direct) + 45 40 74 49 51 (mobile) larch@danskebank.dk March 2012 Africa

More information

Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB

Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 March 2014 Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Factors such as index extension, pension flows and redemptions

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

Bond markets vote for global recovery

Bond markets vote for global recovery Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013

Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013 Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013 Local Market News Interest rates movement Average Weighted Prime Lending rate AWPLR 12.69 Average Weighted Deposit Rate AWDR 10.74 Average Weighted

More information

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund. 2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil

More information

Strategy The end game

Strategy The end game Investment Research General Market Conditions 19 June 2015 Strategy The end game Crunch time in Greek crisis is getting near. An emergency euro leader summit will be held on Monday and we are reaching

More information

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2016 Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion This year kicked off with global risk-off sentiment led by Chinese equities but also in Europe and the

More information

Monex Global Retail Investor Survey

Monex Global Retail Investor Survey Monex Global Retail Investor Survey Executive Summary Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist, Monex, Inc. One of the most popular types of questions in entry exams for elementary schools asks what an object

More information

EUR/SEK 101. We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet. Spanish aid application may cause post-omt/esm-hangover.

EUR/SEK 101. We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet. Spanish aid application may cause post-omt/esm-hangover. Trading Strategy 22 October, 2012 EUR/SEK 101 We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet Riksbank on hold and escalating debt crisis are two potential negative triggers for EUR/SEK Spanish

More information

Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market

Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market Investment Research 22 May 2014 Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market Aluminium price to edge higher in the second half of the year The aluminium price seems to have landed

More information

Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing

Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 August 2016 Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing Inflation has returned as a key factor for Norges Bank s rate setting which

More information

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 USD/JPY 04 NZD/USD 05 Upcoming Economic Figures GBP/USD

More information

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015 Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade

More information

Nivesh Daily Currency

Nivesh Daily Currency Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.27 0.20 6.75-3.2 68.3550 68.2025 68.1175 EURINR 74.50 0.67 20.16-10.6

More information

FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015

FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 Calm after the storm Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt Christin

More information

Nivesh Currency. From September, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $

Nivesh Currency. From September, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ Nivesh Currency From 26-30 September, 2016 Important Highlights India's Current account deficit narrowed to $0.3 billion, or 0.1% of GDP in the Apr-Jun quarter compared with $0.3 billion or 0.1% of GDP

More information

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016) 2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27

More information

New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World

New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World Foreign Exchange Research New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World Jens Nordvig Managing Director Head of G FX Strategy May See the disclosure appendix for analyst certification and important disclosures.

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Bouncing higher. EUR/USD recovery rally

More information

FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG. Friday, 07 November 2014

FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG. Friday, 07 November 2014 FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG Friday, 07 November 2014 G10 FX in 2014 a traffic light perspective Is market activity returning or is it another false dawn? Are central banks doing

More information

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015 Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%

More information

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:

More information

F&C LDI BULLETIN YEAR AHEAD 2015: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN, EXPECT VOL ATILIT Y

F&C LDI BULLETIN YEAR AHEAD 2015: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN, EXPECT VOL ATILIT Y JANUARY 215 F&C LDI BULLETIN YEAR AHEAD 215: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN, EXPECT VOL ATILIT Y We are still in the grip of a global trend of falling long-term interest rates and the start of 215 sees record lows.

More information

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014 Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is

More information

What moves if oil moves? Be aware of indirect oil exposure and make use of it

What moves if oil moves? Be aware of indirect oil exposure and make use of it What moves if oil moves? Be aware of indirect oil exposure and make use of it DR BERND MEYER CFA HEAD OF CROSS ASSET STRATEGY dr.bernd.meyer@ commerzbank.com Large changes in the oil price and elevated

More information

Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015

Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015 Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0)8-46 346 17, pica01@handelsbanken.se Nyheter Grekland: Kommer att redovisa reformlista

More information

US dollar, Swiss franc and British pound Long-term US yield advantage currently in decline USD % points USD The euro-dollar exchange rate broke throug

US dollar, Swiss franc and British pound Long-term US yield advantage currently in decline USD % points USD The euro-dollar exchange rate broke throug Helaba Research FX BRIEFLY 9 February 2016 AUTHOR Christian Apelt, CFA phone: +49 69/91 32-47 26 research@helaba.de EDITOR Claudia Windt PUBLISHER: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chief Economist/ Head of Research

More information

PRESS RELEASE. Frankfurt, May 2007

PRESS RELEASE. Frankfurt, May 2007 PRESS RELEASE Frankfurt, May 2007 DWS Analysis of international mutual fund markets in year 2006 1 : Worldwide fund assets reach record volume of euro 15.8 trillion Positive market environment and ongoing

More information

Outlook. for theus Dollar

Outlook. for theus Dollar Outlook for theus Dollar The US dollar staged one of its most powerful rallies in August, with the 1 rising nearly 6% 2 that month. The breadth of the rally was also impressive, with the currency rising

More information

Market Overview EUR Relative Value

Market Overview EUR Relative Value EUR Interest Rates: The curve remained little changed from last week with only an upward movement of 4 to 5 bps. This comes after the decision from the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 1bps and the repo

More information

Danske Markets, CIB & Equities

Danske Markets, CIB & Equities Capital Markets Day 4 December 2002 Danske Markets, CIB & Equities www.danskebank.com 1 Mission Statement Danske Bank wants to be a dominant Scandinavian trading bank with a broad European product palette

More information

The Danish Corporate Bond Market

The Danish Corporate Bond Market The Danish Corporate Bond Market - An arranger s experiences and expectations 22 May 2014 Bo Wetterstein Global Head of Debt Capital Markets Typical Menu of Capital Markets Funding Options Market: Public

More information

Turnover in foreign exchange and derivatives markets BIS triennial survey: Results for Switzerland

Turnover in foreign exchange and derivatives markets BIS triennial survey: Results for Switzerland Press release Embargo: 3.00 p.m. on Thursday, 5 September 2013 (CEST) Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 communications@snb.ch Zurich, 5 September 2013 Turnover in foreign

More information

Currency Daily Report Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Currency Daily Report Wednesday, August 24, 2016 Urjit pat CONTENTS Currency Daily Report Market Overview Daily Analysis with fundamental and technical outlook US Dollar Indian Rupee Euro Sterling Pound Japanese Yen Important events for the day to depreciate

More information

Daily FX Focus 14/9/2016

Daily FX Focus 14/9/2016 Important Risk Warning Currency Current Trend AUD EUR GBP NZD CAD JPY Support / Resistance vs USD.7357 /.765 AUD dropped with falling commodity price. AUDUSD once dropped to.7439 level. Market awaits August

More information