Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 August 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers The eurogroup meets at 15:00 CET today to discuss the third aid package for Greece. While the agreement is expected to be approved by the finance ministers it is not yet a done deal. Germany continues to prefer a temporary bridge loan to give more time to negotiate a final agreement. It also fears that the IMF will not in the end be able to participate due to its concern about debt sustainability. The key release today is euro area GDP growth for Q2. It will be preceded by the release of Q2 GDP growth for Germany, France and Italy, so the market will have a fairly good idea of the outcome before the publication. For the euro area as a whole, we expect Q2 GDP growth to be 0.4% q/q, ie the same as in Q1. Growth in private consumption is expected to have slowed a bit while exports are expected to have improved slightly supported by the weaker EUR. In the US, preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence for August, producer prices for July and industrial production for July will be released today. So far, consumer confidence has been moving broadly sideways at a decent level in 2015 and we expect this trend to have continued in August. With inflation in focus, producer and import prices should provide some important information on the underlying price pressure on goods prices. Data on Swedish service sector today. For more on Scandi markets see page 2. Selected Market News Markets have generally calmed down after the People s Bank of China clarified its policy stance yesterday. The renminbi has been broadly stable overnight with the PBoC fixing for USD/CNY down (marginally) for the first time since the new methodology was announced earlier this week. Chinese equity markets are higher this morning and Asian currencies (with MYR the exception) appear to have largely stabilised. With signs the depreciation of CNY is slowing, we expect Chinese exchange rate policy to gradually wane as a major driver of global financial markets. Market overview USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 07:30 1 day +/-,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK Selected readings from Danske Bank Today Reading the Markets Sweden [Tex Decent US retail sales yesterday helped to sustain belief that a first Fed hike in September remains a possibility (still our base case) despite recent China jitters. While the July figures were merely solid, combined with upward revisions to previous months, the report on the whole added to the picture of a US economy which is in respectable shape heading into H2. Notwithstanding the recent deflationary shocks from drops in CNY and oil alike, in light of the positive effect on the US consumer from the latter we reckon that the Fed remains keen to initiate a hiking cycle. US Treasuries ended the day lower with 5Y yields leading the way up 7bp with yield increases concentrated in the short end of the curve as markets put a near-term Fed hike back on the agenda. Senior Analyst Christin Tuxen Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi Markets In Sweden, services output data (June) is due today. The two previous months unexpectedly showed small declines in activity but we find it hard to believe that it was anything serious. Other indicators have not given any convincing signs that service providers are facing headwinds, so it is probably just noise. Fixed Income Markets It is a fairly light schedule to say the least. There are no government bond auctions nor any rating actions, and no significant key economic data apart from the GDP for Q2 in the euro area. Hence, we expect a reasonably quiet day with modest movements. FX Markets Global FX markets stabilised on Thursday as the PBoC intervened in USD/CNY, driving spot below the central parity fixing. The CNY is on a depreciating trend versus the USD but we expect the speed of the decline to slow, which implies that the CNH/CNY premium will fall. While CNY depreciation is a deflationary shock to Europe and the US, near term it will fade as a market theme, in our view. Swedish July CPIF inflation was way above the market s and in particular our expectations. Air fares surprised substantially on the upside and the headline number was a significant positive surprise, not least for the Riksbank. We expect the Riksbank to stay sidelined in September. This should provide room for EUR/SEK to stabilise in a range over the coming weeks. With EUR/SEK currently in the middle of the range, we see limited opportunity to position in either direction and prefer to stay sidelined currently. EUR/NOK continues to break higher and the beta to oil prices has risen in recent weeks. This was expected as Brent being below USD60/bbl is hurting a lot of Norwegian oil producers. The market is currently pricing in a 14bps move for the Norges Bank September meeting which we think is fair. EUR/NOK is in no man s land as the high from mid-july has been taken out but the high from December 2014 is very far away. US S&P500 future US 10y gov yield Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) August

3 Key figures and events Friday, August 14, 2015 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 0:45 NZD Retail sales q/q 2nd quarter % 2.7% 7:30 FRF GDP, preliminary q/q y/y 2nd quarter 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 8:00 DEM GDP, preliminary q/q y/y 2nd quarter % % % 0.3% % 9:30 SEK Service production m/m y/y Jun -% 1.6% 10:00 ITL GDP, preliminary q/q y/y 2nd quarter 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 10:00 GLO LME Stocks 10:30 GBP Construction output m/m y/y Jun 2.3% 3.3% 2.3% 3.3% -1.3% 1.3% 10:30 EUR Portugal, GDP, preliminary q/q y/y 2nd quarter 0.4% % 11:00 EUR GDP, preliminary q/q y/y 2nd quarter 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% % 11:00 EUR CPI m/m y/y Jul 0.2% -0.6% 0.2% % 0.2% 11:00 EUR CPI - core, final % Jul % % % 14:30 USD PPI m/m y/y Jul 0.1% -0.9% 0.4% -0.7% 14:30 USD PPI core m/m y/y Jul 0.1% % 0.3% 0.8% 15:15 USD Capacity utilization % Jul 78.0% 77.8% 15:15 USD Industrial production m/m Jul 0.3% 0.2% 15:15 USD Manufacturing production m/m Jul 0.3% % 16:00 USD University of Michigan Confidence, preliminary Index Aug :00 GLO Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 14 August

4 Today s market data: 14 August 2015 AKTIER S&P500 intradag, % Eurostoxx intradag, % Lukkekurs +/ DJSTOXX % Max 0.7 Max 2.3 OMXC % Min -0.6 Min OMXS % OSE BX 621 % Lukkekurs +/ DOW JONES % Grå linie indikerer hvornår det danske marked lukker Grå linie indikerer hvor det amerikanske marked åbner NASDAQ % 1 måned -1.2% 1 måned -3.6% S&P % År-til-dato 1.2% År-til-dato 10.9% NIKKEI (07:30) % EUR/USD intradag VALUTA & RÅVARER USD : JPY dag Max ### GBP måned Min ### NOK År-t-dato SEK CRB, 11 DKK CRB, 1M future råindustri PLN : USD kurs 17:00 07:30 +/- 1 dag -7 6 JPY måned måned 1.48 GBP År-t-dato År-til-dato CHF RENTER Guld, $ Olie, Brent, $ USD-renter intradag Ledende 3M S pænd, bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp USD2Y USD10Y 2.21 USD USD 10Y Max 0.7 Max 2.2 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.7 Min GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp NOK DEM 10Y PLN DKK 10Y SEK 10Y USD2Y (v.a.) USD10Y (h.a.) NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * lukkekurs seneste handelsdag 10-årigt rentespænd til Tyskland USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKK SEK NOK PLN Rentekurve USA Rentekurve Tyskland Max Max Min Min USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (højre akse) 07:30 (venstre akse) 1 måned siden (venstre akse) D-t-D +/-, bp (højre akse) 07:30 (venstre akse) 1 måned siden (venstre akse) Non-finan. Kreditspænd it raxx s. 11* 07:30 1 dag 1 måned Kreditspænd USD 10Y * Ask pris ** Ask pris Swapspænd, bp** Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Aug Sep Nov Dec Feb Mar May Jun Aug NOK 10Y itraxx Europe (IG) (venstre akse) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (højre akse) :00 * lukkekurs seneste handelsdag 07:30 EUR kurs 17:00 07:30 +/- +/- Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 4 14 August

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication August

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission August

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