retail TRENDS poland 2016

Transcription

1 retail TRENDS poland 2016

2 RETAIL MARKET SUPPLY RETAIL market IN POLAND 2015 in the Polish retail market closed with nearly 600,000 sq m of new supply, of which over 50% was delivered in the last quarter. This is inversely to trends observed in 2014, the majority of this volume, over 40%, was completed in the major. Thanks to this relatively high new supply (25% more than in 2014), the total retail stock in Poland reached 10.8 m sq m at the end of 2015, of which the highest volume was located in the 8 major 5.9 m sq m (54% of the total existing retail stock in Poland). Another 2.9 m sq m constituted the medium-sized markets (100, ,000 citizens) and the remaining 2 m sq m were located in the small-sized (below 100,000 citizens). When analysing the new retail supply completed in Poland in 2015, it should be indicated that an overwhelming majority, approximately 500,000 sq m, constituted traditional shopping centres.the largest schemes of such format opened in 2015 are: Zielone Arkady in Bydgoszcz (50,000 sq m), Sukcesja in Łódź (46,000 sq m) and Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin (38,000 sq m). The remaining space was divided into retail parks (63,000 sq m) and outlet centres (23,000 sq m). TRADITIONAL SHOPPING CENTRES 9.36 m sq m OUTLET CENTRES 0.22 m sq m m sq m total retail stock Q Q % 54% 27% 27% 13% 19% RETAIL PARKS 1.26 m sq m Due to increasing competition in the retail market in Poland, the owners of older shopping centres have had to adapt to the market s needs. The trend of extensions and re-letting continued in 2015.The total area of extended retail schemes amounted to approximately 30% of the total new supply in Poland. The largest volume of extended projects was completed in the major markets 140,000 sq m within seven schemes. It is worth mentioning that high interest in outlet centres was also recorded in One scheme was completed as a new centre and four were extended. Furthermore, there are other outlet projects included in the developers plans, e.g. Metropolitan Outlet Centre in Bydgoszcz, Outlet Toruń and another extension of Outlet Park Szczecin. Since 2014, this format of retail schemes is also available in the medium-sized (in Lublin and Białystok). Thus the retail stock in these is diversified in terms of all retail formats. At the end of 2015, there was 650,000 sq m of retail space under construction in Poland. The vast majority of this space is located in the major approximately 500,000 sq m, which is a result of several large-scale shopping centres under construction, among others: Posnania in Poznań (100,000 sq m), Wroclawia in Wrocław (62,000 sq m) and Galeria Północna in Warsaw (60,000 sq m). Almost the total remaining space (except for one scheme) constitutes projects located in the small-sized, of which the largest are: Galeria Glogovia in Głogów (27,000 sq m) and Galeria Aviator in Mielec (26,000 sq m). The retail market in Poland is getting more and more saturated. At the end of 2015, the saturation ratio of the shopping centres stock in the country amounted to approximately 240 sq m/1,000 citizens, exceeding an average ratio for Europe, but being still below average for Western Europe. Furthermore, due to increasing competition and saturation of retail space in Poland, in particular in major, developers are working on mixed-use schemes, combining commercial features (office, retail, entertainment and cultural) forming unique projects in city. These are i.e.centrum Praskie Koneser, Hala Koszyki or ArtN in Warsaw. These kind of investments are usually considered supplementary to the offer represented by the traditional shopping centres. In 2015, the vacancy rate in shopping centres in Poland remained at a stable level and did not exceed 5%. Additionally the demand for retail space noted a relatively good pace in A number of chains have made their debuts in the Polish market, e.g. the French bakery Paul, the French fashion brand Kiabi and the British fashion brand SuperDry. Moreover, other chains plan to invest in Poland and open their first stores in the country. These are i.a. pizza restaurants Papa John s and the US fashion brand Forever 21. Monthly headline rents for retail space in shopping centres have remained stable in Poland in The highest rents for prime units (below 100 sq m) in prime projects are recorded in Warsaw and noted an increase in 2015 to the level exceeding EUR 150/sq m/ month. In the regional markets the rents are usually lower and depend on a number of factors, e.g. tenant brand, the size of the unit and its location within a project. NEW SUPPLY (580,000 sq m) % 33% 27% SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (650,000 sq m) Q % 1% 23% Atrium Copernicus in Toruń (17,000 sq m) Sukcesja in Łódź (48,000 sq m) Galeria Aviator in Mielec (26,000 sq m) Galeria Północna in Warsaw (60,000 sq m) Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin (38,000 sq m) Magnolia Park in Wrocław (20,000 sq m) Supersam in Katowice (20,000 sq m) Galeria Sudecka in Jelenia Góra (18,500 sq m)

3 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS TRENDS The existing retail offer in Poland consists mostly of traditional shopping centers. However, the market with relatively high saturation is becoming more demanding, with in most cases similar sets of tenants in different centres. In order to stand out against the competition and to be recognized on the market as a place where consumers want to stay, it is essential to adjust to the new market trends and to the changing clients needs. The traditional retail offer is no longer satisfying modern consumers. It is recognised that retail schemes should also operate as a social or meeting place, offering other things than just doing the shopping. It should not only be about being in particular place, making purchases, benefitting from entertainment and cultural facilities but also remembering the place as an interesting, exceptional product on the market whereby the client remains loyal. Adjusting the retail offer is also seen in other retail formats, such as outlet centres or retail parks where fitness clubs or cinemas are opening. Until recently, the offer of outlet centres consisted of nearly 100% fashion tenants. Currently, developers are implementing extended foodservice offers or playgrounds for children. The retail market in Poland is getting more mature and more saturated. The average saturation of retail space in Poland is approx. 240 sq m/1,000 inhabitants which is slightly above to the EU average saturation. A result of the development of the Polish retail market is the launch of new formats of retail facilities, such as mixed-use projects, communication centres, convenience shopping centres and the expected development of high street retail. MIXED-USE PROJECTS As a consequence of increasing customer demand, developers are working on large-scale schemes, known as mixed-use projects. By combining commercial features such as retail, office, entertainment and cultural items, forming one unit, mixed-use projects create a unique and recognizable place on the map of the city. These kinds of projects can be considered similar to high street retail which constitute only a supplement to the traditional shopping centres, and cannot be considered as their competition. Examples of mixed- -use projects might be ArtN, Bohema, Hala Koszyki or Koneser in Warsaw. One of the most interesting is the Koneser project, located in the Praga district, combining residential, retail, business and cultural features. Centrum Praskie Koneser, Warsaw

4 150,000 sq m retail space in convenience shopping centres, completed by 7 largest developers of this kind of projects RETAIL MARKET TRENDS Budner, Capital Park, Czerwona Torebka, Dekada, Kleba Invest, Napollo, RECE the most active developers on the convenience centres market CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTRES 1,800 number of retail stores along the high streets in 4 major Catering dominant share E-COMMERCE SECTOR One of the key factors influencing the The value of the Polish e-commerce E-COMMERCE MARKET IN POLAND Polish retail market is undoubtedly the rapidly growing e-commerce sector, sector is predicted to reach PLN 35.8 bn in 2016 and may double within the 2015 COMMUNICATION CENTRES Polskie Koleje Państwowe SA (Polish State Railways) is also following the market trends, particularly regarding retail facilities as a recognizable place on the map, mostly by developing land situated close to railway stations. These are attractive areas with investment potential, not only in large but also in smaller ones, usually close to the city centre. There are already a few such projects in Poland such as Galeria Katowicka or Poznań City Center. The negotiations on further projects assume combining the functions of office, residential, retail and recreational and sports areas. The company plans to build 40 such projects by the end of According to the consumers, making purchases should be easier and more convenient. As a result the projects which became more popular in recent times, are small retail centres with less than 5,000 sq m with few tenants and easy access to the items of daily needs. In the largest these are alternative solutions for hypermarkets in the shopping centres, and are usually located on the way, in the close vicinity of residential areas. In small they are usually the only centres, in which operate only few retail chains. HIGH STREETS The improving transport systems around the most attractive locations in the city centres along with improving standards of retail space along the high streets, are undoubtedly attracting new brands and potential customers. High street retail is also an interesting alternative to shopping centres for customers but also investors. The high street retail market is developed in only a few in Poland: Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and Poznań. It is expected that together with the development of the Polish retail market, high streets will become more important in other. which affects consumer s behaviour. Progressive technological development and changing consumer habits result in a growing number of online consumers. According to the data compiled by e-commerce Polska, the growth rate of the e-commerce industry in Poland amounts to 15-20% annually and it is expected to maintain a stable level. It makes Poland one of the three fastest growing e-commerce markets in Europe (after Germany and Spain). E-commerce Trends: Personalisation Big Data and modern marketing tools make it possible to customize offers for each client individually. This way of increasing a competitive advantage of the brand is gaining traction in the market. Intensification of m-commerce Mobile commerce is becoming an increasingly important sale channel in Europe. Smartphone devices have re-devised their approach to shopping. In Poland, this form of product purchase is gaining importance, nevertheless, barely 13.9% of all online shoppers are buying by mobile devices (7.8% by smartphone and 6.1% by tablet), while in Europe 20% (12.5% and 7.5% respectively). It is still behind the average for the US, where approximately 27% of all online buyers do their shopping by mobile devices (14.4% by smartphone and 12.4% by tablet). next 5 years, reaching 10% share of the retail trade. Furthermore, it is forecasted that in 2020 e-shopping will account for 45% of the total sales income in Europe. Strong e-commerce growth stimulates changes in existing stores (the volume of leased retail space, exhibition space and the pick-up place of the purchases made online). Therefore, entrepreneurs should bet on innovative solutions and technologies to win the race for customers. Omnichannel Multichannel strategy is a response to changing clients habits and their increasing requirements. Online shop is often the first place for researching products and comparing prices, while the purchases are made both online and in stores. Cross-border sale By entering into force the Law on Consumer Right buying online in 2014, Polish law was adapted to EU regulations. Consequently, Polish online retailers are more willing to expand to foreign markets (i.e. Polish fashion platform Showroom is accessible in Germany) as safety of online shopping through the European Union increased forecast PLN bn PLN 63 bn ~6% of retail trade 23,500 e-stores ~10% of retail trade 30,000 e-stores Source: Gemius; PMR; Sociomantic Labs E-commerce Barometer 2016 Stronger role of UX (user experience) design Creating a positive shopping experience includes all stages of purchasing path as user experience encompasses all aspects of the end-user s interaction with the company and its products. Small changes are often enough to influence consumer behaviour and purchasing decisions. Same-day delivery, free delivery Terms of delivery are an increasingly distinctive advantage for online stores. It can determine a business success in a highly competitive market. The retail sector in Poland is still changing as the market is maturing. The most important is following the market trends, especially by developers, owners and retail chains which adjust the offer to the demanding consumers, looking for new shopping experience. 9

5 Contacts in Poland: RESEARCH Elżbieta Czerpak ASSET MANAGEMENT Monika A. Dębska - Pastakia monika.debska@pl.knightfrank.com ASSET MANAGEMENT - OFFICES AND LOGISTICS Bartłomiej Łepkowski bartlomiej.lepkowski@pl.knightfrank.com ASSET MANAGEMENT - RETAIL Małgorzata Szychułda malgorzata.szychulda@pl.knightfrank.com CAPITAL MARKETS Joseph Borowski joseph.borowski@pl.knightfrank.com COMMERCIAL AGENCY - OFFICE Izabela Potrykus-Czachowicz izabela.potrykus@pl.knightfrank.com COMMERCIAL AGENCY - RETAIL Paweł Materny pawel.materny@pl.knightfrank.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Magdalena Oksańska magdalena.oksanska@pl.knightfrank.com VALUATIONS Grzegorz Chmielak grzegorz.chmielak@pl.knightfrank.com Contacts in London: INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Matthew Colbourne matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com.pl/en/research/ Knight Frank Sp. z o.o This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank to the form and content within which it appears.