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1 Investment Market Update Poland Q4 213 The largest investment volume since January 214 Contents Macroeconomic background 2 Occupational markets 2 Investment activity 3 Source of capital 5 Preferred locations 6 Yields 6 Definitions 7 Author Katarzyna Lipka Consulting & Research The investment activity on the commercial real estate market in Poland was strong in 213 with the total volume of transactions exceeding 3.15bn, its best result since the record-breaking year of 26 ( 4.5bn). This is in line with the situation in other European countries and it is a consequence of the improved investors sentiment reflecting gradual economic recovery in Europe and the improving outlook for 214. The retail sector dominated the investment market, accounting for 4% of the total volume of transactions. It was followed by the office sector with a 36% market share and the industrial sector (19%). Out of 1.25bn invested in retail schemes, as much as 9% accounted for the five largest transactions, which were shopping centres with established positions on the market, located in the largest Polish agglomerations. In terms of the office market, prime buildings located in the Warsaw city centre were still in the investors spotlight. However, at the same time they increased their interest in the best class schemes situated in other major cities in Poland, such as Wrocław, Kraków, Tricity and Poznao. In 213 German investors dominated the Polish market and were involved in 24% of the total transaction volume. In 213 prime yields in all sectors decreased by approx..25 pp and at the end of the year were at a level of 5.75% for retail, 6% for office and 7.75% for industrial. Contacts Kamila Wykrota Head of Consulting and Research Magali Marton Head of EMEA Research Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 () Figure 1 Annual investment volumes, million DTZ Research

2 Macroeconomic background According to the latest forecasts of the National Bank of Poland the Polish economy expanded by 1.4% in 213. This represents a decrease in comparison to 212 (2.2%), however is still higher than the values recorded in the majority of European countries. The GDP growth in Poland followed an upward path in 213, beginning from.5% in Q1 and reaching approx. 2.4% Q4. This positive trend was driven mainly by domestic demand (increase in retail sales dynamics) and net exports. The Polish economy is expected to increase further (the GDP growth in 214 is forecast at 2.8% and in 215 at 3.1%), which will be supported by the anticipated gradual improvement in the economic situation within the euro zone. The increasing consumer demand was largely driven by low interest rates in July 213 the reference rate was once again reduced by the Monetary Policy Council to a record low level of 2.5%. The reference rate is expected to remain unchanged during the whole 214 or it may grow slightly (by.25 pp.) in Q4. In 213 the situation on the labour market in Poland remained relatively stable with the unemployment rate at 13.6% at the end of the year (up by.2 pp from 212) and the average monthly salary at PLN 3,781 in November 213 (growth by 2.9% y-o-y). The drop of unemployment and a further increase of salaries are expected in 214, which together with continued low interest rates will positively influence consumer demand. Occupational markets In 213 all sectors of the commercial market in Poland recorded strong activity, both from the supply as well as the demand side. The volume of new deliveries on the Warsaw office market was close to 3, sq m, which is the highest level observed since 2 and the total take-up (sum of all lease transactions reached a record-breaking value of 63, sq m. It should be mentioned that the strong leasing activity was more the result of tenants taking advantage of lower rents and improving their negotiating position, than of expansion-driven space extensions. This is reflected both in the volume of net absorption - which in 213 was much lower than recorded in the pre-crisis years (26-28) - as well as growing vacancy rates. Along with the expected improvement of the economic situation, the leasing activity should remain strong and the net absorption will be gradually increasing. However, the strong pipeline supply expected in the next 2-3 years will maintain the strong competition among landlords, which in some locations is likely to exert a downward pressure on rents. Figure 2 GDP growth and inflation in Poland 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Central Statistical Office, Oxford Economics Figure 3 Reference rate in Poland 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: National Bank of Poland GDP growth Inflation rate Investment Market Update 2

3 The retail market has been developing steadily, both in the largest agglomerations as well medium-sized and small cities. The demand for retail space is stable; this reflects in a high number of new brands opening their stores in Poland as well as low vacancy rates, standing below 3% in the majority of large agglomerations. Given the improving macroeconomic forecasts, increasing propensity of Polish people to consume and also the expansion plans of many retail chains, it can be expected that the demand for retail space will remain strong over the next 2-3 years. Under pressure from growing competition, many older schemes underwent or will undergo renovations and repositioning in order to keep up with the changing market trends and consumer requirements. Figure 4 Investment volumes ( million) and number of transactions (RHS) f The industrial market in Poland, similarly to other European countries was largely driven by the development of the e- commerce sector. The total value of lease transactions in 213 reached 2.91 m sq m and was 3% higher than recorded in the previous year. Given the further growth of online retail, the take-up level is likely to be high and vacancy rates may further decrease throughout 214. Investment activity The largest investment volume since 26 Investment volume on the commercial real estate market in Poland reached over 3.15bn in 213, which is the best result since the record-breaking year of 26 ( 4.5bn) and represents a growth of 27% in comparison to 212. Figure 5 Investment volume [EUR m] Investment volume by sector, 213 Industrial 19% Mixed Use 5% Retail 4% Office 36% No. of transactions The strong market activity is in line with the situation in other European countries and directly reflects the improving opinion that investors have of the gradual economic recovery in Europe and the improving outlook for 214. Moreover, purchasers have became less risk averse and have started to turn more towards markets where they stand to achieve higher yields (including Poland). The retail sector dominated the market in 213 As opposed to 212, the retail sector dominated the investment market in Poland in 213 constituting 4% of the total transactions value. It was followed by the office sector with a 36% market share. Figure 6 Investment volume by sector, million Out of 1.25bn invested in retail schemes, as much as 9% accounted for the five largest transactions. The following schemes were subject of these deals: Silesia City Centre in Katowice, Wola Park in Warsaw, Galeria Kazimierz in Kraków, Galeria Dominikaoska in Wrocław and Charter Hall portfolio. Office Retail Industrial Mixed Use Investment Market Update 3

4 Poland Q4 213 The vast majority of capital was invested in retail schemes with established positions on the market, located in the largest Polish agglomerations (above 4, inhabitants). This suggests that prime shopping centres are still the most sought after asset class. Additionally, a few smaller projects (including shopping centres, supermarkets and a high street portfolio) changed owners in 213. However, the volume of these transactions accounted only for 1% of the total value of the capital invested in retail properties during the year. Figure 7 Investment volume in the retail sector by location, % agglomerations > 4, inh. 14% Warsaw agglomeration multi-city/portfolio transactions 15% 6% other cities < 4, inh. Offices in regional cities gain on importance The total value of transactions in the office sector in 213 amounted to 1.15bn, which constitutes 36% of the total investment volume in Poland. Whereas the retail market was dominated by a few large acquisitions, the capital invested in office properties was divided more evenly among the various schemes (27 transactions in the office sector vs. 18 related to retail properties). As in previous years, in 213 office buildings located in Warsaw continued to be the most frequently bought by investors (approx. 82% of transaction volume in this sector). However, last year the interest level of property buyers in best class schemes situated in other major cities in Poland increased. This interest extended to cities such as Wrocław, Kraków, Tricity and Poznao. This trend reflects a reducing risk aversion of investors connected with the overall positive market outlook as well as the growing maturity of the regional office markets in Poland. The majority of transactions carried out in 213 in Warsaw dealt with office buildings located in the city centre (approx. 6% of the total volume) and Mokotów the largest non central business district. Apart from prime properties, there were also some opportunistic acquisitions, both in Warsaw and regional cities. This shows that overall sentiment is improving and investors are seeing opportunities of higher returns. Industrial properties are a more sought after asset class Investment activity in the industrial sector in 213 was strong (with a volume of nearly 6m, constituting 19% of the total transaction value), mainly due to two large portfolio transactions concluded on the market. Following the positive development of the industrial market, to a large extent resulting from the growth of online retail, industrial properties are becoming a sought after asset class. Figure 8 Annual investment volume in the office sector by location, million Table 1 Major investment transactions in Poland in 213 Sector Property / Location Retail Silesia City Centre / Katowice Wola Park / Warsaw Galeria Kazimierz (shares) / Kraków Galeria Dominikaoska / Wrocław Office Mokotów Nova / Warsaw Senator / Warsaw New City / Warsaw Green Corner / Wrocław Industrial Segro portfolio / different locations Prologis portfolio / different locations H&M Logistic centre / Gądki (Poznao) DBP Piaseczno / Piaseczno Warsaw Other cities Investment Market Update 4

5 Source of capital German investors still the most active Figure 9 Investment volume by nationality of investors Throughout the whole of 213 international investors were responsible for approx. 92% of all acquisitions in Poland. Polish companies purchased properties with a total value of ca. 25m, with the most active domestic players being PZU Asset Management and Kulczyk Silverstein Properties. Similarly to the last few years, German investors dominated the Polish market in 213 and accounted for 24% of the total transaction volume. The most active players last year were IVG, UNION INVESTMENT and RREEF. At the same time we could observe reduced activity from German openended funds, a large part of which are currently in liquidation and in the process of selling their assets. Companies from the UK and Ireland increased their activity on the Polish investment market in 213 and were responsible for transactions with a total value of approx. 315m. This was mainly due to the acquisitions of retail properties by LCP and TRISTIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS as well as SEGRO s purchase of Żerao Park II. French investors decreased their investment activity in Poland and their market share dropped from 19% recorded in 212 to 4% in 213. The non European companies were mainly American including GRIFFIN GROUP and HINES. Private property vehicles maintained their dominant market position Over the last 1 years (24-213) private property vehicles were the most important players on the Polish investment market and the volume of their acquisitions accounted for more than 55% of the total transaction value in this period. The listed sector (quoted property companies and vehicles) were in second place with a market share of 21%. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Figure 1 Investment activity by type of investor 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Germany International / Other UK & Ireland Rest of Europe France Austria Americas Poland Australia Private Property Vehicle Listed sector Institution Other/Unknown Private Property Company Public Sector/Government In 213 private property vehicles maintained their strong position with a total volume of transactions at almost 1.7bn i.e. 53% market share. Quoted companies and vehicles were also relatively active and acquired properties with a total value of ca. 52m, mainly due to a few large transactions (e.g. acquisition of Złote Tarasy shares by UNIBAIL RODAMCO and the purchase of Galeria Dominikaoska by ATRIUM REAL ESTATE). Institutional investors increased their market share in comparison with 212, with the most active players being PZU AM and COMPENSA. Investment Market Update 5

6 Preferred locations Increasing interest in regional markets Last year Warsaw was still the most preferred location for investors acquiring properties in Poland; however its share decreased in comparison to the previous years. A large part of investment transactions concluded in 213 in Poland related to properties located in major agglomerations. Figure 11 Total investment volume by location 1% 8% 6% 4% Warsaw agglomeration agglomerations > 4, inh. multi-city/portfolio transactions other cities < 4, inh. Taking into consideration deals concluded over the last four years (21-213) in the six most mature regional markets in Poland, Wrocław has the largest share, followed by Katowice and Łódź. 2% % Yields Prime yields compression in all sectors At the end of 213 prime yields for retail properties were at a level of 5.75%, down by.25 pp from 212 and coming back to the 26 values. Such a low level is a result of strong demand for prime retail assets. Prime office yields (for top quality projects in Warsaw city centre) decreased slightly throughout 213 and levelled out at ca. 6%. This downward trend is mainly the result of the limited availability of such investment products. Yields for secondary assets (buildings located out of the Warsaw city centre as well as projects in regional cities) remained stable or increased. This is due to a strong pipeline supply and downward pressure on rents expected for some non central business districts. Prime yields for industrial properties dropped to 7.75% at the end of 213, down from 8% recorded in 212. This is due to the increasing attractiveness of the industrial sector among investors as new buildings development has been strong in 213 with a positive outlook for the coming years. Figure 12 Total investment volume by the largest regional cities, Figure 13 Prime yields in Poland 1% 9% 12% 2% 1% 4% 23% 31% Wroclaw Katowice Lodz Krakow Poznan Tricity 8% 7% 6% 5% Office Retail Industrial Investment Market Update 6

7 Definitions Investment transaction / Subject of the report Inclusion in the statistics Property type Volume of transactions Yield Purchaser (vendor) type Refers to the purchase of commercial real estate for the purpose of receiving an income or rent. Covers purchases of properties with commercial use including sites on which a property for commercial use will be built. Comprises deals in excess of EUR 1 million. Determined by the date of signature of contract. DTZ tracks commercial property transactions made primarily in the office, retail, industrial and mixed use sectors. Land sales are not recorded unless the land is purchased in the development phase or is acquired specifically to construct a building or complex of buildings. Aggregate of total purchase prices agreed for the registered purchases. The attainable prime yield for top of the range properties is given. This is based on the annual rental income and the purchase price. Classification of purchasers and vendors by type enables us to track trends in transactions and also to assess the type of capital committed to property investments. Purchaser/Vendor Type and subtype definitions are as follows: - Institution: financial institutions/banks, pension funds and insurance companies. - Private Property Company: companies and developers, whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate but which do not have a stock exchange listing. - Private Property Vehicle: non-listed investment vehicles whose principal activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate. - Private investor: private individuals. - Quoted property company: companies and developers, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate that is listed under Real Estate on a stock exchange. - Quoted property vehicle: listed real estate vehicles i.e. funds and tax efficient structured vehicles, whose main activities involve the development, buying and selling of commercial real estate - Corporate: companies whose main activities do not involve development or investment in real estate. Investment Market Update 7

8 Other DTZ Research Reports Other research reports can be downloaded from These include: Occupier Perspective Updates on occupational markets from an occupier perspective, with commentary, analysis, charts and data. Global Occupancy Costs Offices Global Occupancy Costs Logistics Obligations of Occupation Americas Obligations of Occupation Asia Pacific Obligations of Occupation EMEA Global Office Review Regional Headquarters Asia Pacific- November 213 Sweden - Computer Games developers November 213 India Office Demand and Trends Survey Poland Banking Sector - January 213 Property Times Regular updates on occupational markets from a landlord perspective, with commentary, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Brisbane, Bristol, Brussels, Budapest, Central London, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Edinburgh, Europe, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, India, Jakarta, Japan, Kuala Lumpur, Luxembourg, Madrid, Manchester, Melbourne, Milan, Nanjing, Newcastle, Paris, Poland, Prague, Qingdao, Rome, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Taipei, Tianjin, Ukraine, Warsaw, Wuhan, Xian. Investment Market Update Regular updates on investment market activity, with commentary, significant deals, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Australia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mainland China, South East Asia, Spain, Sweden, UK. Money into Property For more than 35 years, this has been DTZ's flagship research report, analysing invested stock and capital flows into real estate markets across the world. It measures the development and structure of the global investment market. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and UK. Foresight Quarterly commentary, analysis and insight into our inhouse data forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value Index. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe, UK and China. In addition we publish an annual outlook report. Insight Thematic, ad hoc, topical and thought leading reports on areas and issues of specific interest and relevance to real estate markets. Net Debt Funding Gap - November 213 UK secondary market pricing - October 213 German Open Ended Funds - October 213 Great Wall of Money - October 213 Quantitative Easing - UK Regions - September 213 Singapore Government Land Sales - September 213 UK lending market -September 213 Quantitative Easing - August 213 Property Investment Guide Asia Pacific Singapore Insight Residential July 213 China Insight - The Healthcare Sector - April 213 City of London occupier demand - April 213 DTZ Research Data Services For more detailed data and information, the following are available for subscription. Please contact for more information. Property Market Indicators Time series of commercial and industrial market data in Asia Pacific and Europe. Real Estate Forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value Index TM Five-year rolling forecasts of commercial and industrial markets in Asia Pacific, Europe and the USA. Investment Transaction Database Aggregated overview of investment activity in Asia Pacific and Europe. Money into Property DTZ s flagship research product for over 35 years providing capital markets data covering capital flows, size, structure, ownership, developments and trends, and findings of annual investor and lender intention surveys. Investment Market Update 8

9 DTZ Research DTZ Research Contacts Global Head of Research Hans Vrensen Phone: +44 () Global Head of Forecasting Fergus Hicks Phone: +44 () Head of EMEA Research Magali Marton Phone: Head of Strategy Research Nigel Almond Phone: +44 () Head of Consulting & Research, Poland Kamila Wykrota Phone: DTZ Business Contacts Chief Executive, EMEA John Forrester Phone: +44 () Head of DTZ Poland Alan Colquhoun Office Agency Barbara Przesmycka Retail Agency Renata Kusznierska Industrial and Logistics Agency Marzena Pobojewska Capital Markets Craig Maguire Valuation Arkadiusz Bielecki Corporate Real Estate Services (CREM) Ian Scattergood Property Management Christopher Rasiewicz Project and Building Consultancy Andrew Frizell DISCLAIMER This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ January 214 Investment Market Update 9

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