La situation énergétique mondiale. Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen. Institut de l Energie Trottier Polytechnique de Montréal 14 mai 2013

Transcription

1 La situation énergétique mondiale La bifurcation régionale des défis Vers un monde électrique décarbonné Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen Professeur, Chaire de Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques Directeur, Energy Center Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Georgia Power Professor Emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology Fellow IEEE Institut de l Energie Trottier Polytechnique de Montréal 14 mai 2013

2 The evolution of the world s population distribution

3 Background: demographic explosion World population evolution: 1 Billion Billion years 3 Billion years 4 Billion years 5 Billion years 6 Billion years 7 Billion years 8 Billion years 9 Billion years Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base: World Population: , June 2011

4 Background: demographic explosion Population evolution bifurcation in Billions Less developed countries More developed countries % % % % % % % % % % % % UN definition: More developed countries: Northern America, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base

5 Background: demographic explosion By 2050, the earth s population will have: 1.3 billion people who will be energy affluent 5.7 billion people who will be energy poor 2.3 billion new inhabitants of the our planet, primarily living in energy poor regions of the world. Presently, 1.3 billion inhabitants of the world (15% of global population) do not have access to electricity. Source: International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook 2012

6 The world energy background

7 Primairy energy by sources The total doubles. The fossil fuel share decreases from 86.7% to 81.1%. Coal: More Natural gas: More Oil: Less The combined part of nuclear & hydro increases from 2.7% to 8.0%. Increase of natural gas: 279% Increase of coal: 231% Increase of oil: 146% Source: IEA Key statistics 2012

8 Consumption - by regions Cons. / primary 1973: 76.5% 2009: 68.2% Growth within OECD: 131% Growth outside of OECD: 269% The part of Asia, without China, goes from 6.3% to 12.3%. The part of China goes from 7.9% to 17.5%. Source: IEA Key statistics 2012

9 Electric energy production Increase of coal consumption to produce electricity: 372% The production of electricity grew by 350% while the total «only» doubled. The world is rapidly becoming electric. The hydrocarbon part decreased from 75.1% to 67.4%. The CO 2 free part increased from 24.9% to 32.6%. Source: IEA Key statistics 2012

10 Increase in primary energy Source : WEO 2011

11 Expected evolution of energy demand coverage The growth is expected to happen outside of the OECD Petroleum and coal is expected to decrease in the OECD Within the OECD, the largest growth is expected to be in renewables Source : AIE

12 Evolution of the demande per capita OECD decreases Africa decreases! Source : AIE

13 Background: CO 2 emissions In 2007, China became the largest CO 2 emitter but industrialized countries have the largest cumulative emission. The CO 2 now in the atmosphere was primarily put there by industrialized countries! Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 and 2012

14 The regional bifurcation It is not reasonable and probably not ethical for industrialized regions of the world to request that emerging regions moderate their short term needs for additional energy thereby curtailing their aspirations for better living conditions.

15 The regional bifurcation - illustrations Institut Energie Trottier - 14 mai 2013 Energy Center

16 Bifurcation of challenges From the information provided above, one should come to the conclusion that there are two types of challenges: In industrialized countries, the challenge is the rational utilization of energy and broad deployment of renewable energies. Broad range of technologies for better energy end-use Largely distributed renewable energies and storage Expensive technologies for rich countries In emerging countries, the challenge is satisfying a massive increase in energy consumption while avoiding a catastrophic impact on the environment. Environmental impact containment Affordable and well-suited technologies for developing countries Plug and play technologies

17 The European Union

18 The European Union energy climate challenge By 2020 Reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions by 20% Improve the overall energy efficiency by 20% Cover the energy needs using at least 20% renewable energies

19 EU Forecasts Sources: EWEA (2011): Pure Power. Wind energy targets for 2020 and

20 Convenant of Mayors in Europe Committed to exceed the European Union CO 2 emission targets Over signatories Representing a population of over 168 Million people

21 The PV and wind location dilemma Greatest PV potential south in Mediterrean countries Greatest Wind potential Baltic Sea, North Sea, Coast lines Need for major North South transmission expansions 21

22 The nuclear energy bifurcation: Development continues worldwide In Europe, a few countries are withdrawing

23 Nuclear energy - world situation - 1 August nuclear reactors available for network connection 104 in the United States 70 reactors in the United States have already seen their operational licences extended from 40 to 60 years. 30 countries 2010 Nuclear energy: 13.5% of the worldwide electric energy production

24 Nuclear energy - world situation - 2 Construction and planning of new plants In construction : in China 10 in Russia 7 in India 4 in Korea 14 elsewhere Proposed : > countries Of which 18 do not yet have a nuclear power plant

25 The situation in Europe Nuclear energy contributes more than 30% of the total electricity production in 13 countries % of nuclear energy contribution to electricity production France 78% Slovaqia 54% Belgium 54% Ukraine 47%. Switzerland 40% Sweden 40%.. Japan 27% Germany 22% Switzerland has decided to exit from nuclear energy by not renewing the five presently operating nuclear power plants when they reach their safe end of life in 2035 or earlier. This is one of the most difficult nuclear energy exit challenges in the world.

26 Germany 22% nuclear August 2011 Shut down of 8 of the 17 operating reactors MW 2022 Shut down of the remaining 9 reactors MW Belgium 55% nuclear 2015 Shut down of 3 of the 7 operating reactors MW 2025 Shut down of the remaining 4 reactors MW France The exit from nuclear energy in Europe President Hollande has committed to shut down the nuclear power plant at Fessenheim (2 * 900 MW PWR) by the end of 2016 and to reduce the share of nuclear energy to the electricity production from 75% to 50% by 2025.

27 Societal implications of the nuclear energy exit Example: The Fessenheim shutdown in France «Je regrette cette annonce qui est précipitée» «Elle confirme un engagement du Président de la République mais elle a lieu alors que le débat sur la transition énergétique n a même pas débuté. Nous ne devons pas anticiper sur les conclusions qui pourraient en sortir» «Des personnes exerçant des métiers depuis des décennies ne peuvent pas forcément se reconvertir dans une activité alternative» «Il ne faudrait donc pas que la solution apportée à certains problèmes soit seulement le résultat de coalitions plus politiques qu efficaces pour l avenir du pays» Bernard Thibault, Secrétaire général de la CGT

28 The Swiss situation

29 Switzerland s situation Watt Society The Watt Society is a metaphor toward a society using energy in a rational and sustainable way.

30 Summary of Switzerland s targets Energy Primary energy Reduction to 1/2 by mid 21st century Reduction to 1/3 by 22nd century CO 2 CO 2 -equivalent Reduction to 1/4 by mid 21st century Reduction to 1/8 by 22nd century ST/Proj/22174/Vortrag/eigene/W

31 Innovation & Management in the Energy Industry Energy conservation 31

32 Suisse - the flexibility our neighbors need Since 2000: A little more PV and wind 2010 Source : OFEN

33 Switzerland and Austria Austria Switzerland Population (millions) Prim. ener. /cap. (toe/cap.) Prim. ener. /GDP (toe/usd 2000) Elec./cap. (MWh/cap.) inclus pertes et P/T CO 2 /cap. (ton/hab.) Source : AIE 2011 Electricity production in Austria: 38% fossil Electricity production in Switzerland: 38% nuclear The question then is: Can Switzerland exit nuclear energy without looking like Austria as far as Cos emissions are concerned

34 The PV and wind energy technologies are now mature and are rapidly becoming cost competitive. The real challenge is energy storage

35 PV and wind production in Germany Total over 16 jours : 3.8 TWh The renewable energis challenge is STORAGE Generation [GWh] [MW] Puissances installées : Eolien: >29GW cr PV: >25GW cr PV Légende Eolienne

36 Unconventional gas The 21st century energy revolution

37 Massive shale gas reserves in many countries Assumption: The total electricity generation by CCGTs with a net conversion efficiency of 55%. Country/region Technically recoverable resources [trillion m 3 ] Net calorific value/heat value [PWh] Total electricity generation 2009 [PWh p.a.] USA Canada Mexico China Poland 5.3 Rule of thumb: m 3 natural gas = France kWh Norway Argentinia South Africa Reserve life time [years] Shale gas could be the «game changer» during the next decades 37

38 In closing

39 Industrialized regions The industrialized regions of the world share a key responsibility to transition toward: A more rational end-use of energy. A more renewable energy mix which means more electricity. Energy storage technologies and their proper integration. Decarbonization which will be a consequence of the correct decisions. Broad, active and sustained engagement of the population at large which is and must remain essential. Public policies which MUST to be durable - decades. no «stop and go» - no «politique énergétique du jour»

40 Emerging regions The industrialized regions share a key responsibility with emerging regions : To provide for aspirations for better living conditions, which will require more energy. To make sure that irremediable damage is not done to the environment. To develop well suited technologies to address the specific needs of emerging regions. This is a great opportunity for all regions. To ensure that the local populations are properly educated and trained to take care of new infrastructures once installed. Support which has been promised during meetings of world leaders must be actually delivered!

41 La situation énergétique mondiale La bifurcation régionale des défis Vers un monde électrique décarbonné Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen Professeur, Chaire de Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques Directeur, Energy Center Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Georgia Power Professor Emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology Fellow IEEE Institut de l Energie Trottier Polytechnique de Montréal 14 mai 2013