Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform ( Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose

Transcription

1 Avec le support de: Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform ( Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose Prof D. Favrat, EPFL Energy Center

2 Why a new information platform and calculator? Starting points: weak knowledge about energy in the population (non experts) need to rationalize teaching in the different academic sections ( experts ) Hence the need for a calculator that can be adapted to both inspired by Mackay in UK (DECC) but adapted: - to Swiss situation - to be sequential (avoid the black box negative effect) - to account for the seasonal asymmetry

3

4 The books Shorter versions from this month

5 Ongoing: Extension to canton and city Vaud Lausanne EU application being evaluated Paper in Energy (in Press,2015)

6 Electricity, Gas, Diesel and Wood? (lesson 1) Electricity 1 kwh Natural Gas 1 m kwh Wood Diesel 1 litre 10 kwh 1 m3 (oak) 2100 kwh or 1 kg 5.6 kwh

7 Scales and monthly representation (lesson 2) kwh/einwohner Légende 2011 Abwärme Chaleur perdue Verkehr Transport Prozesswärme (th.) Warmwasser Chaleur de procédés (th.) Heizung Eau chaude (th.) Mobilität Chauffage (el.) de bâtiments Industrie (el.) Elec. transport Warmwasser Elec. procédés (el.) Elec. eau chaude Wärmepumpe Elec pompe à (el.) chaleur Elec chauffage à rés. Elektroheizung (el.) Elec. Autres Andere (el.) 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 Yearly, seasonal, monthly + 6 indicators

9 Present situation Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 [GWh] % Légendes: Waste heat % 5.9% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) % 19.0% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) % Electricity: transport % 0.8% Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water % 1.1% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating % Electricity: others

10 BFE scenarios : "NPE" 2035 Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] % 10.0% Légendes: Waste heat % 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) % 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) % 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport % 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water % 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating % 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others

11 Scenarios of the Confederation: "NEP" 2035 (L6) Final energy*demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] % 10.0% Légendes: Waste heat % 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) % 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) % 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport % 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water % 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating % 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others

12 SFOE Scenarios : "NPE" 2035 Final energy* demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] % 10.0% Legend: Waste heat % 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) % 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) % 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport % 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water % 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating % 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others

13 Scénarios de la Confédération: "NPE" 2035 Final energy demands* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] Legend: Waste heat Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricité: Electricity: transport Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating Electricité: Electricity: autres others

14 SFOE Scenario : "NPE" 2035 et 2050 Final energy*demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh] % 10.0% 4.3% Legend: Waste heat % 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% 20.8% 9.0% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) % 19.0% 1.0% 5.5% 18.8% 4.6% 7.9% 15.0% 7.7% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricity: transport % 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% 8.0% 0.1% Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water % 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% 2.0% 0.6% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating % 18.2% 24.6% Electricity: others

15 SFOE Strategy : six scenarios for the future Final energy* demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh] high medium low high medium low Légendes: Waste heat Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricity: transport Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 Electricity: others

16 Comparison of costs (lesson 9) Milliards Frs Low High Medium Nuclear Fossil electricity Hydro Wind Solar PV Geothermal Electric grid Seasonable storage 10 5 Electricity import Cogeneration Boilers Other heating Transportation fuels Energy efficiency 0

17 The broad spectrum of future costs for nuclear Initial agreement reached on new nuclear power station at Hinkley (EDF Energy-UK) The key terms include a Strike Price of /MWh fully indexed to the Consumer Price Index Kannan &Turton Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy. Energy Policy 2012.

18 Comparison with Prognos scenario 2050 low

19 Electricity and transport

20 Role of renewable (Prognos 2050)

21 La Suisse «électrique» n est pas une île

22 Prix à la bourse européenne d électricité Prix [ /MWh] 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,

23 Le prix du carbone en chute libre en Europe par tonne Prix du carbone dans l Union Européenne from

24 Comparison between 2011 and 2050 low

25 Conclusions European market completely unbalanced (only subsidies) Low prices of coal and hydro carbons, with depressed carbon market. In Switzerland swiss hydro and cogeneration producers are clearly disadvantaged Debates on nuclear safety and future prices hotter than ever Implies wrong signals to investors (for ex: hydro pump storage) and energy efficiency measures Generally positive comments regarding energyscope.ch including from abroad but too early to judge on impact. Early negative reactions from emotionally sensitive groups (global warming deniers, anti-wind mills, ultra-pro-nuclear)

26 Thanks for your attention Que de choses il faut ignorer pour agir! So many things we have to ignore, to act (Valery)