Beef + Lamb New Zealand. NZ Meat Sector Domestic Pastoral Trends. Is industry good organisation, started July 2004 Farmer-owned

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1 1 2 Beef + Lamb New Zealand Is industry good organisation, started July 24 Farmer-owned NZ Meat Sector Domestic Pastoral Trends Presentation to: MIA Conference Chateau on the Park Christchurch P144 Funded by levies mandated under the Commodity Levies Act (5 yearly referendum, last September 29) Overseas offices in the US, UK, Belgium, Japan, Korea & China 13 Region Farm related Staff Industry good body Act on behalf of farmers M&WNZ is funded by levies on producers under the Commodity Levies Act (a mandate from the farmers under five-yearly referenda that can be held in the 6 th year). Its role is to carry out the industry-good activities of the former Meat Board Levies per head at slaughter Lamb 45 Sheep 45 Adult Cattle $3.8 Rob Davison Executive Director, Economic Service +64 [} Beef + Lamb New Zealand Ltd Box 121 Wellington New Zealand 614 Updated 19 August 21, RMD

2 3 4 The Value Chain & Information Flows Topics Production Inputs Genetics Farm Businesses Sheep & Beef Farm Survey Since the 195s, farm level data Production, Prices, Revenue, Expenditure, Profit, Assets, Debt Statistics New Zealand Ag Statistics Processors Local Transport Exporters International Transport Meat Company Production Data Procurement prices Domestic Consumption Statistics New Zealand MAF; Export Data x Country Importers Local Processors/ Manufacturing Distributors / Wholesalers Food Service Retail Overseas Data: USDA, OECD, EU, GTA MLA, EBLEX, FAO Trade Policy Market Access Market / Development / Position C O N S U M E R S Pastoral Land Use Change Production Outlook Livestock Changes and Plant Capacity Sheep and Beef Farm Profit, inflation, debt Exchange Rates and Price Outlook Summary Beef + Lamb New Zealand Forecasts, SIL, R&D, Uptake Farm connected Beef + Lamb New Zealand Forecasts, R&D, Uptake Production connected Beef + Lamb New Zealand Forecasts Market Position Influence Market and trade policy connected Updated 19 August 21, RMD

3 5 6 Land Use Trend Pastoral land Area 21-11e Ha () 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Pastoral Land Area Sheep Beef Deer Goat 24-5 Dairy Statistics New Zealand % +68% Overall -19% -2.6 m Ha 199 to 212 Dairy Farms 1.61 million ha Dairy Support.61 million ha Dairy Total 2.22 million ha 2% Sheep & Beef, Deer 9.3 million ha 8% Total pastoral area million ha 1% In dairy accounted for 1% of the pastoral land area. Overall, the dairy herd expansion was approximately matched by pastoral land switched from sheep and beef production to dairy. At Dairy pastoral land totals an estimated 2.23 million hectares compared 1.35 million in The sheep and beef farm land decrease is more difficult to explain. The 28 per cent decrease amounts to 3.51 million hectares loss of sheep, beef and deer pastoral land since to an estimated 8.95 million hectares at Of this 92, hectares of prime sheep and beef land was switched to dairy production leaving a 2.6 million hectare loss to other land uses. In 28 Dairy farms grazed area estimated at 1.5 million hectares based on LIC statistics. The remaining land is dairy support as run-offs, and grazing replacement dairy cattle on sheep and beef farms. At 3 June 28 there were 4.35 million dairy cows, 1.23 million support dairy stock totalling 5.58 million dairy cattle. This latter land use change would be spread amongst blanket forestry, extensive marginal pasturelands closed for conservation, marginal land reverting to scrub and bush, urban encroachment especially from smallholding lifestyle blocks near towns and cities around Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch, viticulture and horticulture. 19 August 21, RMD Ref P141.xls; Land Use.xls Updated 19 August, RMD P141.xls

4 7 8 Key Land Use Changes NZ Sheep and Cattle Numbers to No. Hill Country Farms 7,5 6,245-17% No. Finishing Breeding Farms 12,1 6,635-45% Hill Country Farms eff m ha % Finishing Breed Farms m ha % Sheep () 75, 65, 55, 45, 35, Dairy +78% Beef -1% Sheep -43% 6, 5, 4, 3, Cattle () 25, 2, Dairy Farms 14,79 11,62-21% Dairy m ha % Statistics New Zealand. % change 199 to Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Sheep & Beef Farm Survey Statistics New Zealand is used a a base as all of the residual effects of subsidies removed in November 1985 or put on a fast track to removal program had dissipated by then. The NZ Agricultural Sector from that point has been totally driven by global market price trends from that time. Updated 19 August, RMD P144.xls Updated 19 August 21, RMD Ref P141.xls

5 9 1 Livestock Change 25-6 to () head Lambing % 1 s head -5-1, -1,5 Sheep s head Beef Cattle 13% 125% 12% 115% North Island 13% 125% 12% 115% South Island -2, -4 11% 11% Source:Beef + Lambl New Zealand Economic Service 15% 15% s head Dairy Cattle Stock Units s , -1,4-1,8-2,2-2,6 Stock Units 1% Statistics New Zealand p 21-11e 1% Statistics New Zealand p 21-11e -1-3, -North-Wai BOP East Coast -Taranaki Manawatu -Marlb Canterbury Otago Southland -North-Wai BOP East Coast -Taranaki Manawatu -Marlb Canterbury Otago Southland Lambing % % %; ewes -1.2% Lambing % % %; ewes.% Source:Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service +1% point = 16, lambs +1% point = 115, lambs Updated 18 September 21, RMD ref: P144.xls Updated 18 September 21, RMD ref: P144.xls

6 11 12 Export Lamb Slaughter September Year (s) Distribution of Lambing Dates 2,5, North Island 2,, 16, 14, 12, North Island head 16, 14, 12, South Island head Ewes Lambing 1,5, 1,, 1, 1, 8, 8, 5, 6, 4, 2, LAMB Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand p Economic Service 21-11e 6, 4, 2, LAMB Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand p Economic Service 21-11e Ewes Lambing 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, Source: Meat & Wool New Zealand - Economic Service South Island 5, North Island South Island NZ 29-1p 9.7m -4.8% 11.2m -9.1% 2.9m -7.2% 21-11e 1.1m +4.9% 11.3m.9% 21.4m +2.7% 1-Jun Jun Jun Jul-8 27-Jul-28 1-Aug Aug-28 7-Sep Sep-28 5-Oct Oct-28 2-Nov Nov-28 3-Nov Dec Dec Jan-29 Source: Meat & Wool New Zealand - Economic Service, Sheep and Beef Farm Survey Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls Updated 18 Sep 29, EGM ref: P933.xls

7 13 14 Export Mutton Slaughter September Year (s) Export Cattle Slaughter September Year (s) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 North Island head p MUTTON 21-11e 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 South Island head p MUTTON 21-11e 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, North Island head p COW ST&HF BULL 21-11e 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, South Island head p COW ST&HF BULL 21-11e North Island South Island NZ 29-1p -7% -9% 3.7m -8% 21-11e -2% +17% 3.6m -1% North Island South Island NZ 29-1p -3.6% -2.9% 2.26m -3.4% 21-11e -6.7% -.2% 2.14m -5.1% Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls

8 15 16 Export Sheep Processing Export Cattle Processing p Companies No Plants No Year Kill * 33,669 27,19 25,1 Max Week Potential * 1,419 1,288 1,294 Max Week Actual * 1,125 1, Av per Week * Av as % Potential 46% 4% 37% Av as % Actual 58% 5% 49% No. Weeks at Max Actual * Lamb equivalents, sheep = 1.15 lambs p Companies No Plants No Year Kill Head s 2,28 2,337 2,25 Max Week Potential s Max Week Actual s Av per Week s Av as % Max Potential 56% 53% 5% Av as % Max Actual 63% 58% 55% No. Weeks at Max Actual The analysis in the above slide is based on throughput achieved at each plant in lamb equivalents where a sheep equal to 1.15 lamb equivalents. Max Week Potential throughput is based on summing the maximum weeks throughput achieved for each plant during the year. Maximum throughput occurs in different weeks for different plants. Max Week Actual is the highest total throughput achieved among all plants in a week by the industry. Some plants will not be at their peak throughput during this week. The difference between actual and potential is a guide to utilisation. However, keep in mind different regions will reach peaks at different times during the year. The export lamb and sheep processing industry has seasonal peaks and requires processing capacity to meet this need. The exact level of processing capacity in the sector is adjustable as plants can operate variable numbers of shifts per day and includes starting or stopping chains in multiple chain works according to demand. In the above analysis the number of processing plants has remained almost constant though within this period some plants have closed and new or refurbished plants started. To analyse throughput in the sector the Year Kill is shown in lamb equivalents. Av per Week is the Year Kill divided by 52 weeks or 53 weeks. This average has been expressed as a percentage of the Max Week Actual to provide a gauge of the trend in plant utilisation for the sector. No. Weeks at Max Actual is the year s total throughput divided by the observed maximum actual throughput for a week. This shows how many weeks of the year would be needed to slaughter the available stock at the Max Week Actual rate. Updated 17 Sep 21 RMD Ref: P144.xls Max Week Potential throughput is based on summing the maximum weeks throughput achieved for each plant during the year. Maximum throughput occurs in different weeks for different plants. Max Week Actual is the highest total throughput achieved among all plants in a week by the industry. Some plants will not be at their peak throughput during this week. The difference between actual and potential is a guide to utilisation. However, keep in mind different regions will reach peaks at different times during the year. The export lamb and sheep processing industry has seasonal peaks and requires processing capacity to meet this need. The exact level of processing capacity in the sector is adjustable as plants can operate variable numbers of shifts per day and includes starting or stopping chains in multiple chain works according to demand. In the above analysis the number of processing plants has remained almost constant though within this period some plants have closed and new or refurbished plants started. To analyse throughput in the sector the Year Kill is shown in lamb equivalents. Av per Week is the Year Kill divided by 52 weeks or 53 weeks. This average has been expressed as a percentage of the Max Week Actual to provide a gauge of the trend in plant utilisation for the sector. No. Weeks at Max Actual is the year s total throughput divided by the observed maximum actual throughput for a week. This shows how many weeks of the year would be needed to slaughter the available stock at the Max Week Actual rate. Updated 17 Sep 21 RMD Ref: P144.xls

9 17 18 Sheep & Beef Farm Profit before Tax per Farm, Constant 24-5 $s ETS Calculation Sheep & Beef per Farm 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, s decade av. $44, Real Farm Profit Line 3 Line 4 Sheep and Beef Farm Survey, All Classes Farm NZ:US$ 42 2s decade av. $64, p Lowest in 5 years NZ:US$ f (A) Meat & Wool Processing Costs (Transportation & Meat & Wool Processing) Projected $25 per tonne of CO 2 -e in 215 $ per kg product $ per farm Tonnes of CO 2 -e per farm.2 2,15 86 (B) Farm Fuel & Electricity Agricultural Emissions (Assumed Baseline of average).3 2,3 92 Total.6 5,25 21 From 1 July 21 to Dec 212 5% of (A) + (B) = $1,475 per farm Farm Profit Before Tax for 29-1 is based on a 63 cents US exchange rate and its associated cross rates with other currencies and compares with an average rate 58 cents US for the previous year. Note that 27-8 was the lowest Sheep and Beef Farm Profit Before Tax in at least 5 years and coincided with the highest exchange rate in US dollar terms. Updated 19 August 21, RMD ref: P141.xls

10 19 2 Fonterra Figures Dairy per Farm Sheep & Beef On-farm Inflation (A) Projected $25 per tonne of CO 2 -e in 215 Fonterra Costs (Transport & Milk Processing) $ per kg MS $ per herd Tonnes of CO 2 -e per herd.4 5,2 27 (B) Farm Fuel & Electricity.2 2,6 14 Agricultural Emissions (Assumed Baseline of average).2 2,4 97 Total.7 1,2 48 Index 24-5 = 1, p 21-11f +38% Since 2-1 From 1 July 21 to Dec 212 5% of (A) + (B) = $3,9 per farm The above is the on-farm prices paid index for sheep and beef farm inputs. Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls

11 21 22 Fertiliser Expenditure vs Volume Index = 1 Sheep & Beef Farm Debt per Farm at 3 June 28 All Classes Sheep and Beef Farm , Kg per Ha $ per ha $ per Farm 6, 4, 2, +53% Kg per ha Fert Expenditure f Sheep and Beef Farm Survey p The above shows per farm debt increase since the base year The percentage increases shown are cumulative increases relative Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls

12 23 24 Sheep & Beef Farm Interest per su Wool Lamb, Beef and Milksolids Nominal Farm price trend, per kg $ per Stock Unit % +5% +35% Cents per kg Wool Dairy Lamb Beef Sheep and Beef Farm Survey p 21-11f % Increase relative to Linear (Wool) Linear (Milksolids) Linear (Lamb) Linear (Beef) e Livestock Improvement Corporation, DairyNZ. The above shows interest payments per stock unit relative to the base year base year The percentage increases shown are cumulative increases relative Part of the increase in interest payments per stock unit is linked to destocking due to drought in some regions, particularly the North Island in Updated 19 Aug 21, RMD ref: P141.xls Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144xls

13 25 26 Exchange Rate 1% Change Impact on Farm Gate price Appreciation Depreciation +1% -1% Exchange Rates for Outlook No one knows but for our outlook we have used: - Lamb -14% +18% Mutton -19% +24% Beef -13% +15% Wool -12% +14% NZ:US$.68-4% NZ:.45-1% NZ:.55 +4% All below now (Sep 1) Source: Meat & Wool New Zealand Economic Service Exchange rate changes have a leveraged effect on the farm gate price as the table above illustrates for 1 per cent change in the exchange rate. Updated 19 September 21, RMD ref: Schd_Fob.xls 18 September 21, RMD Extract from P133, New Season Outlook

14 Export Lamb $ per head Trend All Grades Export Lamb $ per head Lamb All Grades $ per head $ per head Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 12 month av. $ Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun $ Jun 21 Jun 211 Jun e $82.e $ per head $ per head Lamb Market Change & Exchange Rate Effect $88.8 $82. Market Change $ Exchange Rate $ Exch. Rate per farm $22,2 29-1e -$36,8 All Grades Lamb, per head including skin and wool. The lower chart separates out the change in export lamb price between years into its two components the change in dollars per head from exchange rate movements and the change in dollars per head due to market price changes. The 29-1 estimate used exchange rates of: - US dollar.71 (+19%) UK pound.45 (+2%) Euro.53 (+22%) The percentage increases are export lamb season weighted average exchange rates for the year ending September 21 compared with the weighted average for the year to September 29. The 21 data were final to June in the calculation. For lamb, the season average price paid per head decreased from $88.8 in 28-9 to $82. in 29-1, a decrease of $6.8 per head. Of the $6.8 per head decrease this was due to an increase of $18.34 per head from the market offset by a $25.14 per head decrease from the stronger than last year (unfavorable) exchange rate. Updated 19 August 21, RMD ref: P141.xls, Schd_Fob.xls 19 August 21, RMD ref: P144.xls

15 29 3 US Bull Beef Price Quotes 95 CL Export Bull Beef per kg Trend kg c/kg Dec 28 Mar Debt bubble boom 28 Jun 28 Sep 28 Dec difference NZ:US exchange rate 29 Mar 29 Jun 29 Sep 29 Dec 21 Mar 21 Jun Aug 29 to Aug 21 NZ +26% US +21% Cents per kg Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 12 month av Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun Jun 357 Exchange Rate Sensitive 211e Jun US c/kg NZ c/kg US cattle herd decreasing. 93.7m 1 Jan 21 The above graph demonstrates the currency effect on the US 95 CL bull beef price quotation in NZ dollars relative to the trend in the US dollars. From August 29 to August 21 the US bull beef quotation price increased 26% 18 in NZ dollar terms and increased 21% in US dollar terms. The difference in the percentage movements is the exchange rate. Updated 17 September 21, RMD Ref: P144.xls Updated 19 September 21, RMD Ref: P144.xls, Schd_Fob.xls

16 31 32 Beef All Grades $ per head Milksolids per kg Trend Real 24-5 $s Beef All Grades $ per head $ per head $ per head 1,2 1, Beef Market Change and Exchange Rate Effect e Market Change $ Exchange Rate $ Exch. Rate per farm $17,5 29-1e -$19,3 Cents per kg Av Milksolids per kg Milksolids per kg Real Av. Livestock Improvement Corporation, Fonterra 28-9p 29-1p 21-11e The lower chart separates out the change in export lamb price between years into its two components the change in dollars per head from exchange rate movements and the change in dollars per head due to market price changes. The 29-1 estimate used exchange rates of: - US dollar.71 (+22%) UK pound.46 (+2%) Euro.52 (+23%) The percentage increases are export beef season weighted average exchange rates for the year ending September 21 compared with the weighted average for the year to September 29. The 21 data were final to June in the calculation. For beef, the season average price paid per head increased from $818 in 28-9 to $828 in 29-1, an increase of $1 per head. Of the $1 per head increase this was due to an increase of $222 per head from the market offset by a $212 per head decrease from the stronger than last year (unfavorable) exchange rate. 19 August 21, RMD ref: P144.xls Updated 17 September, RMD ref P144.xls, LIC, Fonterra

17 33 34 NZ Exchange Rate Trend (2 Jan = 1) And. Index Last 12 months (Aug) UK +6.2% US $ +.7% EU +13.3% 2 Aug 21 Feb 21 Aug 22 Feb 22 Aug 23 Feb 23 Aug 24 Feb 24 Aug 25 Feb 25 Aug 26 Feb 26 Aug U.S. $ U.K. stg Euro 27 Feb 27 Aug Reserve Bank of New Zealand 28 Feb 28 Aug 29 Feb 29 Aug 21 Feb 21 Aug Since float, March 1985 NZ $ av 59 cents US Aug 1, 7 NZ $ av 36 UK pence Aug 1, 46 p NZ $ av.51 Euros Aug 1,.55 As a reference the NZ dollar exchange rate clearly disadvantages exporters when it is trending upwards and favours the export sector when it trends down. What this graph shows is the exchange rate volatility that amplifies export price signals in New Zealand dollar terms. Short-term exchange rate swings can be moderated by forward cover exchange rate instruments but not the longer term. Updated 17 September 21, RMD 21 Ref: 144.xls/Exchange

18 Summary Domestic Scene Material Supplied for Public use only by agreement from Outlook for lamb remains excellent back by tight supply Beef outlook function of US recession but Russia reentering as an importer positive Big uncertainty is the exchange rate, grim outlook if this remains export unfavourable legacy of low prices received 25-6 to 27-8 and increased debt 21 Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited previously operating as Meat & Wool New Zealand Limited. All rights reserved. This work is covered by copyright and may not be stored, reproduced or copied without the prior written permission of Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited, Box 121, Wellington. Phone: 64 () , Fax: 64 () Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited, its employees and directors shall not be liable for any loss or damage sustained by any person relying on the forecasts or other information contained in this document, whatever the cause of such loss or damage. Livestock performance for profit important 19 September 21, RMD ref: P144

19 37 Quintile Rank 2% Intervals North Island Finishing Farms Ranked by Sheep Gross Margin 28-9 Quintile Stock Lambing % Sheep Sheep Sales Prime Units excl hgts Gross Gross Carcase weight Equiv. Lambs Lamb per Ha. lambs Margin Margin Lamb Lamb Lamb Meat Prime Sales $/SSU $ per ha Purchased Sold Production M/S $ per Ha kg per ha kg per ha kg per ha $/hd Low 1.5 Q Q Q High Mean Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Sheep and Beef Farm Survey There is a clear performance stretch to improve on-farm profitability Updated 7 September 21, RMD P143.xls, (Meat Prodn)

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