How will the Industry cope with prices at $4.00/lb?
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1 How will the Industry cope with prices at $4./lb? Speciality Coffee Association of Europe SCAE World of Coffee June 211 Maastricht, Netherlands José Sette Executive Director a.i ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: March 1965 to May 211 in current terms US cents/lb
2 1 ICO composite indicator price deflated Monthly averages: March 1965 to May 211 in constant Apr-Jun 2 terms US cents/lb UN index USA CPI 35 ICO group indicator prices Daily: 1 January 28 to 17 June 211 in current terms US cents per pound Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 2
3 ICO composite and group indicator prices historical comparison US cents per pound May 211 Last monthly average when price was higher Highest monthly average ever recorded ICO Composite June April 1977 Colombian Milds May April 1977 OtherMilds April April 1977 Brazilian Naturals May April 1977 Robustas August April New York ICE futures settlement prices 1 st to 15 th position on 2 June US cents/lb
4 World Production Crop years 2/1 to 211/ /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* Production: 1 leading producers Volume in bags - % of world production 29/1 21/11 % change Brazil % Vietnam % Colombia % Indonesia % Ethiopia % India % Mexico % Guatemala % Honduras % Uganda % 4
5 Production of Washed Arabicas Crop years 2/1 to 21/ /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* Washed Arabicas Colombia Production of Natural Arabicas and Robustas Crop years 2/1 to 21/ /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* Natural Arabicas Robustas 5
6 Price spikes: Prof. Brian D. Wright Univ. of California, Berkeley occur only when stocks/use ratios are minimal and market is fragile do not match market shocks due to storage match times of low stocks, not low production Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 1964 to
7 Inventories in importing countries Calendar years 1964 to World stocks/world consumption ratio 1964 to
8 Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2 to Exports by group and by type of coffee October to April bags 29/1 21/11 % change TOTAL by group of coffee Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas by type of coffee Arabicas Robustas
9 Exports by the top 1 exporting countries October to April bags 29/1 21/11 % change TOTAL Brazil Vietnam Colombia India Indonesia Honduras Guatemala Ethiopia Peru Uganda Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Washed Arabicas months commencing Colombia All other Washed Arabicas 9
10 Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Brazilian Naturals and Robustas months commencing Brazilian Naturals Robustas.38 Exports of green Robusta as a percentage of total exports of all green coffee Calendar years 198 to percentage
11 18 16 Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2 to billion US dollars World consumption Calendar years 2 to * 11
12 Estimated consumption: 1 leading markets by volume 29 21* % change World total USA Brazil Germany Japan France Italy Russian Federation Canada Spain United Kingdom World coffee consumption Evolution 2 21 in thousand bags 2 21* Growth rate % Traditional markets Producing countries Emerging markets World total
13 World Coffee Consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2 21 in thousand 6-kg bags 2 21* Growth rate % European Union Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Japan USA Retail prices of roasted coffee December 29 and 21 and % change Country NC/unit of weight Dec-9 Dec-1 % change European Union Belgium EUR/kg Denmark DKK/kg Finland EUR/5g France EUR/25g Germany EUR/kg Italy EUR/kg Netherlands EUR/25g Spain EUR/25g Sweden SEK/5g United Kingdom GBP/½ lb Japan JPY/1g Norway NOK/kg USA USD/lb
14 World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2 21 in thousand 6-kg bags 2 21* Growth rate % Total Brazil Indonesia Ethiopia Mexico India Others World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2 21* in thousand 6-kg bags 2 21* Growth rate % Total Russian Federation Algeria Korea, Republic of Ukraine Australia South Africa
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