The future of Swedish nuclear power - Implications from large scale employment of renewables

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1 The future of Swedish nuclear power - Implications from large scale employment of renewables Mikael Odenberger Dept. Energy & environment Div. Energy technology

2 The never ending story in Swedish energy policy: Should Sweden phase out Nuclear power? (and replaced it with wind power /RES?) Is that possible? If it is possible, how do we do that?

3 Power sector surroundings Hydropower Transportation sector Wave power Transmission capacity Wind power Biomass Tidal power Coal power with CCS DSM Storage Wave power Nuclear power Scenario Heat sector Distribution capacity Solar power

4 MtCO 2 /year Where we are headed EU CO 2 - emissions Historic and future trends/targets Other Industry 2 El & Heat Sources: [Boden et al., 21; EC-JRC/PBL, 29; European Commission 211; EEA, 215]

5 EU Outlook

6 Variations in solar PV electricity El. demand (Blue) and PV el. prod (yellow), western Danmark, 214, full year and summer week Source: Energinet.dk,

7 Variations in wind power Wind power prod (green), western Denmark, 214, full year hourly (upper fig.) monthly (lower fig.) Source: Energinet.dk,

8 Traditional perspective Base load 3 Sveriges elanvändning över ett år 25 2 [MW] Baslast Tid Swedish electricity use, 212 Source: Nord Pool Spot,

9 Nordic capacity supply curve (schematic representation of technology classes, a few years old ) Gas turbines Availability: Wet/dry years, Wind (weather dependent) CHP Coal Oil cond. Wind Hydro Nuclear

10 There is competition between wind power and traditional baseload! vindkraften och det förnybara behöver den stabila baslasten som kärnkraften utgör. Låt klimatmålet och marknaden styra valet av energislag, DN Debatt, nov 21 Kjell Jansson, vd Svensk Energi Maria Sunér Fleming, ansvarig energi- och klimatpolitik Svenskt Näringsliv 4 Danish Net load 214 [MW] Tid [h] source: Energinet.dk,

11 TWh TWh Electricity supply in Sweden Green Policy Regional Policy Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. scheme Nuc.: 45 yrs lifetime +13 TWh RES-E (common Swe-Nor cert. scheme) Nuc.: 6 yrs lifetime (new optional)

12 System impact of increasing volumes of wind power (case study Sweden) Nuclear (TWh) Existing capacity Wind (TWh) O1+O2, R1+R2 Reduced utilization of nuclear (cf figure) Limited impact on CHP and BP Hydro power dispatched more offensive (more often closer to max and min) Net export increases

13 GWh/3hr GWh/3hr Example: Swedish electricity generation up scaled wind power TWh 5 TWh Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Increasing wind power from 26 to 5 TWh wind power -> Less nuclear and hydro power used more dynamic (more variations close to max/min capacity) CHP marginally lower Increased Net export Source: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )

14 EUR/MWh El. price distribution all cases for Price area SE3 Less available Nuclear (or other thermal power) -> more high price hours Increased wind power penetration -> more low price hours 15 TWh TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Results from sensitivity analysis: differences due to varying wind power and nuclear power levels only -> The more wind power the sharper price distribution -> Capacity surplus (remaining old power plants) dampen price spikes ->Hydro and increased interconnector capacity dampens impacts

15 High cost intervals - duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power

16 Low cost intervals - duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power

17 SEK/MWh Average annual el. price (SE3) Effect of increased Penetration of low OPEX capacity (wind power) & everything else constant Effect of reduced nuclear capacity (everything else constant) 3 2 1

18 Electrcity price faced by different load/production Increased prices by removing capacity /MWh Lower prices induced by capacity surplus TWh wind 5TWh wind 7TWh wind 7TWh wind, 5.6GW nuclear Average Nuclear Wind CHP PV 7TWh wind, no nuclear Pushing in low OPEX capacity, e.g. wind power, lowers average prices if else is kept consant (Capacity surplus) Bio CHP and remaining nuclear gain if old nuclear is shut down (high winter prices)

19 More wind and less nuclear further observations from model simulations Low-price hours will become an all-year phenomena (today primarily a summer phenomena and coincides with large wind-power output High-price hours will primarily remain as a winter phenomena but occurance will increase during other periods: Induced by scarcity (typically winter especially if thermal is phased out) Induced by increased cycling costs Low-price periods are relatively long in duration due to windy conditions (typically days) -> limited potential for DSM as a DSM cycle typically occurs within a day or two High-price periods generally more scattered and shorter duration -> more feasible for DSM

20 Challenges & Opportunities Challenges: Get flexible or reduce market share Net load dimensioning Costs The higher the investment the bigger dependence on high load factors LCOE, system specific (do not assume 8h/year for all future) Balanced technology mix, a capacity surplus is not good for anyone Size, a large unit can be complicated to integrate into the system (N-1 criterion) Opportunities: High price for dispatch power Flexibility providers/tools can make room for more base load, e.g. interconnectors, DSM, energy storage, links between sectors

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