Joint IEA-RETD and IRENA Workshop. The Business case of New Generation RE-COST1 STUDY Preliminary Results. Mercedes Mostajo

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1 Joint IEA-RETD and IRENA Workshop The Business case of New Generation RE-COST1 STUDY Preliminary Results Mercedes Mostajo 1

2 RE-COST1 Study - Objectives To carry out a comparison of different electricity generation technologies both non renewable and renewable using data from new and projected generation plants in a number of developed countries, to provide fresh, data based insights and recommendations to key actors in the energy sector, that contribute to stimulate and foster the implementation of renewable energies. Reduce the informational gaps on costs and business cases for different non-re and RE technologies by investigating primary data across a number of countries and technologies Understand the impact of existing policy measures on the costs of electricity generation. Document the decision making process of energy utilities and investors when it comes to choosing investments in power generation capacities, considering costs and revenue streams. Support policy makers in defining policies that are suited for direct investment decisions towards RET. 2

3 A calculation model based on real data allows to identify the impact of policy and non-policy factors Countries in scope POLICY RELATED FACTORS POLICY NON - RELATED FACTORS Technologies in scope TAXES INCENTIVES OTHER ECONOMIC PARAMETERS ELECTRICITY SECTOR GEOGRAPHY OTHER C IMPACT OF POLICIES N CCGT S-PV W-ON W- OFF TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY PLANT DESCRIPT ION Name PLANT 1 PLANT 2 PLANT 3 Company country PLANT DESCRIPT ION T ype of development TECHNOLOGY Name Location PLANT 1 PLANT 2 PLANT 3 country Company Adress PLANT DESCRIPT ION TECHNOLOGY T ype of development T echnology PLANT 1 PLANT 2 PLANT 3 T ECHNICAL Name PERFORMANCE Location Company Adress PLANT DESCRIPT ION Input T ype of development T echnology Name Output T ECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Location Company Efficiency, % Adress T ype of development Input Contruction time, yr T echnology Location Output Lifetime, yr T ECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Adress Efficiency, % Load (capacity) factor, % T echnology Input Contruction time, Max. yr (plant) availability, % Output Lifetime, yr T ypical (capacity) size, MW T ECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Efficiency, % Load (capacity) Installed factor, %(existing) capacity Input Contruction time, Max. yr (plant) availability, Average capacity % aging Output COST Lifetime, S yr T ypical (capacity) size, MW Efficiency, % Load (capacity) Installed factor, %(existing) Civil/Estructural capacity Contruction time, yr material and installation Max. (plant) availability, Average capacity % Mechanical aging Lifetime, yr equipment supply and installation COST S Capital T ypical Cost (capacity) size, MW Load (capacity) factor, % Electrical instrumentation and controls ("I&C") supply and installation Installed (existing) Civil/Estructural capacity Max. (plant) availability, % Project material indirect and installation costs, fees and contingency Average capacity Mechanical aging T ypical (capacity) size, MW equipment Owner's costs supply (excluding and installation project financing costs) COST S Capital Cost Installed (existing) O&M capacity Electrical instrumentation and controls ("I&C") supply and installation Average capacity Civil/Estructural aging Project material indirect and installation Fixed costs, O&M fees and contingency Mechanical equipment Owner's costs supply (excluding Variable and installation O&M project financing costs) COST S Capital Cost O&M Electrical instrumentation and Major controls Maintenance ("I&C") supply and installation Civil/Estructural material and installation Energy/fuel Project indirect cost Fixed costs, O&M fees and contingency Mechanical equipment supply and installation Decomissioning Owner's costs cost (excluding Variable O&M project financing costs) Capital Cost Electrical instrumentation and controls ("I&C") supply and installation O&M Major Maintenance Project indirect costs, fees and contingency Energy/fuel cost Fixed O&M Owner's costs (excluding project financing costs) Decomissioning cost Variable O&M O&M Major Maintenance Fixed O&M Energy/fuel cost Variable O&M Decomissioning cost Major Maintenance Energy/fuel cost Decomissioning cost country PLANT 1 PLANT 2 PLANT 3 country DATA FROM NEW PLANTS AND PROJECTS PLANT DATA TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE DEVELOPER COSTS FUEL/EMISSIONS Calculation Engine Comparison Engine Sensitivity Engine Report Engine COST RESULTS REVENUE RESULTS HYDR O 3

4 Results are based on a dataset built with information from plants and projects in the countries in scope ONSHORE OFFSHORE SOLAR HYDRO CCGT COAL NUCLEAR WIND WIND PV Alberta 5 NO NO (pub) 1*? NO Ontario >6? 1 (pub) 1* NO? Quebec 5 NO NO (pub) NO NO NO France 2 1* 2 (pub) 2 2 Germany 3 1* 2 (pub) 2 2? 1 new 4 old Norway 4 1* NO (pub) 1* NO NO Sweden 3* 1* NO (pub) 1* NO? Spain 3 NO 3 (pub) 3 2? Japan 2 1 (pub) 2* 1*? NO Not included (pub) Data from publications X* Compl. w/ publications and interviews? Is the analysis relevant? 4

5 This is a differential methodology from other cost comparisons -- with some advantages ADVANTAGES Data are real : correspond to specific plants or projects in a given country Possible to identify the impact of policy changes over components of costs Evaluation of current data bring new insights on the evolution of technologies and costs The datasets can grow as more data become available Possible to enhance the model with insights and feedback from experts DRAWBACKS Necessary to conduct large numbers of interviews to grasp the actual meaning of the data Not possible to use generic templates: feedback and assessment of results are essential Care has to be taken when extrapolating results to the whole installed basis of a country or region Necessary to understand the differences between new and old technologies when assessing country-level situations COMMON TO MOST COST COMPARISON STUDIES low total number of total generation projects in this initial phase ADVANTAGES OUTWEIGH DRAWBACKS: USEFUL INSIGHTS ARE EMERGING 5

6 Necessary to understand the characteristics of the electricity sector in each of the countries in scope Market Main Technology Alberta Ontario Quebec France Germany Spain Norway Sweden Japan Liberalized Hybrid: Gov. Liberalized Dereg. Liberalized Liberalized Liberalized 10 regions market competitive owned but with market with market with market with market with each with a -regulated integrated utility one historical company 4 vertically integrated players 3 large utilities large state owned utilities large state owned utilities vertical integrated utility (EPCO) Thermal Nuclear Hydro Nuclear Coal Thermal Hydro Hydro Thermal FIT No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No No Yes PPA No Yes Yes Yes No No No No No Other Offsets / RECs No No No No No Green Cert. Green Cert. No EPCO: Electric Power Company PPA: Power Purchase Agreements RECS: Renewable Energy Credits 6

7 as well as the factors that influence the evolving costs of generation for each technology WIND SOLAR PV CCGT COAL HYDRO NUCLEAR Mature technology now reliable, dependable Reduction in turbine prices driven by heightened competition Priority in merit curve may result in higher utilization than expected Coming down the learning curve Some producers claim module prices at US$/W credible? With adequate financing sources may need much lower tariffs Should be cost effective with low prices of gas, if utilization is reasonable New designs (supercritical pulverized) with some emission reduction, help compensate emission costs Backbone of generation in countries with low electricity prices Large differences in costs between large plants that are already amortized and new plants in less attractive locations Current plant base is cost attractive (positive business case) New plants appear to have higher capital costs, but their business case is still attractive under current policy conditions 7

8 LCOE of Wind appears to be getting closer to the prices of electricity (USD/MWH) LCOE with different financing structures r depends on country and technology Electricity price Maximum: Average Spot Market Price % Minimum: Average Spot Market Price 2011 (USD/MWh) - quoted Price with incentives (USD/MWh) Have used current (2012) 8

9 Solar PV still has some way to go before being able to forego incentives (USD/MWH) Canada-Alberta Canada-Quebec Norway Sweden LCOE with different financing structures r depends on country and technology Electricity price Maximum: Average Spot Market Price % Minimum: Average Spot Market Price 2011 (USD/MWh) - quoted Price with incentives (USD/MWh) Have used current (2012) 9

10 A view of total generation is necessary to discuss policies Example Germany (USD/MWH) LCOE with different financing structures Electricity price Maximum: Average Spot Market Price % r varies with country and technology Minimum: Average Spot Market Price 2011 (USD/MWh) - quoted Assumes the plant starts operation in 2012 Price with incentives (USD/MWh) Have used current (2012) 10

11 An example of tariffs impact PPAs in Quebec EXAMPLE OF BUSINESS CASE. WIND ONSHORE QUEBEC -- (USD/MWh) Plant with policies (1) Plant with policies (2) Capital Cost Operating Expenses Taxes Income Capital Cost Operating Expenses Taxes Income Capacity factor % % Equity % % Debt % Gross MW XX Cost of Equity % Cost of Debt % 11

12 What if tariffs decrease for future developments? Germany and onshore Wind EXAMPLE OF BUSINESS CASE. WIND ONSHORE GERMANY -- (USD/MWh) Plant established now Plant established in the future Capital Cost Operating Expenses Taxes Income Capital Cost Operating Expenses Taxes Income Capacity factor % % Equity % % Debt % Gross MW XX Cost of Equity % Cost of Debt % 12

13 Preliminary results new technologies renewable and non-renewable Cost of Wind onshore generation is getting close to current market prices Current low turbine prices High utilization rates Pressure to reduce operating costs Solar PV has still some way to go before it may reach market prices but perspectives appear to be good If module prices continue to significantly drop With adequate sources of cheap financing The business case for CCGT and Coal becomes more difficult in many countries prevailing low utilization rates All new renewable and non renewable technologies cannot easily compete in situations with existing alternative sources of low cost generation Are we trying to sell a new car in the second hand market? 13

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