The evolving paradigm for natural gas in the Southern Cone and key LNG developments in the hemisphere

Transcription

1 The evolving paradigm for natural gas in the Southern Cone and key LNG developments in the hemisphere Marco Tavares May/2009

2 GAS ENERGY CORPORATE STRUCTURE 2008 Advisory Committee Pres. João Carlos de Luca % 67% 51% 50% Natural Gas, Power, Coal, Oil products (Brazil) Competitiveness Market Logistic Trends New Business M&A Arbitrations Technical Papers Natural Gas, Power, Coal, Oil products (Brazil) Competitiveness Market Logistic Trends New Business M&A Arbitrations Technical Papers Competitive Intelligence on Brazil and Latin America Petrochemicals Inorganic Chemicals Fine Chemicals Methanol Fertilizers Defensives Papers Project Developer and JV s Participations Co-Generation LNG (big and small ) Biogas Gas Storage Power (big and small) Biofuels Chemicals Mature Fields 2 2

3 GAS ENERGY TEAM Team Associates in Latin American and Canada Marco Tavares & Douglas Abreu Partners Associates Alvaro Rios Roger Tissot North America Ronald Egusquiza Peru Carlos Alberto Lopes Manuel Quintela Gilda Bouch 3

4 GAS ENERGY GEOGRAPHIC POSITION GAS ENERGY Latin America Lima Team Associates in Latin American and Canada GAS ENERGY Latin America Santa Cruz GAS ENERGY Chemicals Rio de Janeiro GAS ENERGY New Ventures São Paulo GAS ENERGY Assessoria Empresarial RJ Office GAS ENERGY Latin America Montevidéo GAS ENERGY Participações/ Assessoria Empresarial Porto Alegre 4

5 GAS ENERGY CLIENTS Oil & Gas Producers BG REPSOL YPF DEVON CHEVRON EL PASO SHELL NEXEN NG Distribution Companies CEG CEG RIO GAS NATURAL SPS SCGAS SULGAS BAHIAGAS CDGN NG Transportation Companies GTB TRANSPETRO Power Related Companies ENDESA CHILE ENDESA BRASIL DUKE ENERGY TRACTEBEL ENERGIA (SUEZ) AES URUGUAIANA ELECNOR CEMIG PRISMA ELEKTRO) FURNAS CHESF CPFL MPX NORTE FLUMINENSE CELPE QUANTA GERAÇÃO LIGHT COENERGY NEOENERGIA (IBERDROLA) Industrial Companies COPENOR PROSINT BRASKEM PQU (QUATTOR) COPESUL BRASKEM FOSFERTIL IPIRANGA ULTRA QUATTOR OXITENO ULTRA INNOVA RIOPOL (QUATTOR) VOTORANTIM CAMARGO CORREA VALE DO RIO DOCE DAX RESINAS KINROSS SAMARCO MONSANTO QUATTOR PETROCOQUE Financial Related Companies BNDES UBS PACTUAL BEAR STEARNS INVISTA BANCO BBM AMERICAN ING SANTANDER Oil & Gas Institutions IBP ABIQUIM ABRACE ABRAGET ANACE ABRADEE ABRAGNC FIESC FIESP SINDICOMB Government São Paulo Rio de Janeiro 5

6 Natural Gas Industry Scenario Latin America Fuel products volatility causing related pricing problems; Difficulties to fulfill investments chronograms results on lack of logistics and productions capacities ; Short term problems to satisfy NG demand Colombia, Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay and Brazil; Lack of power new capacities results on high NG dispatch, that results on cuts of NG to others industrial and automotive sectors Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Brazil; 6

7 Natural Gas Industry Scenario Latin America Difficulties on NG industry organizations (prices control, high government take, contracts disrespected) results on low exploratory attractiveness Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia; Good potential to increase natural gas proved reserves because a strong exploratory programs Colombia, Peru and Brazil; LNG regional investments - internationalizing natural gas industry re-gasification or liquefaction resulting on new prices parameters or cost implications Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and on future Colombia and Uruguay. 7

8 Natural Gas Demand Latin America Source: BP Statistical Review 8 8

9 Natural Gas Proved Reserves Reserves / Production duration on years Peru Camisea start Argentina and Bolivia problems Source: BP Statistical Review 9 9

10 Natural Gas Proved Reserves Argentina Evolution Concentration Consolidated Confusion YPF with 90% of production Gas del Estado promoted gas to other fuels competition Strong gas distribution network (political factor) New Regulations ENARGAS New Producers Gas Gas Competition Start Exportation Chile, Brazil and Uruguay Investments (Transp + Distrib) Prices frozen Subsidize the consume Contracts disrespected Investments disappear Production Declination

11 CHILE 6 Importation Gas Pipelines - Empties - GasAtacama -Norandino -GasAndes - Gasoducto del Pacífico - Bandurrias - Methanex Source: GASCO Chile 11

12 CHILE LNG solutions to support NG Demand Quinteros ENAP Source: GNL Quintero 12

13 CHILE LNG solutions to support NG Demand Quinteros 1st LNG Ship cross Estreito Source: GNL Quintero 13

14 CHILE LNG solutions to support NG Demand Mejillones Phase I Onshore re-gasification terminal Jetty Floating Storage Unit (vessel permanently moored to the jetty) Under construction ENAP Phase II Onshore storage tank to replace the FSU Feasibility studies ongoing Gas Pipelines Norandino Gas Atacama Source: Suez Power Plants Edelnor/Electroandina Central Eléctrica 14 Atacama

15 CHILE LNG solutions to support NG Demand Mejillones Source: Suez 15

16 CHILE LNG solutions to support NG Demand Regas Quintero construction engineering office front door March 2009 (US$ 1 bi investments earthquake and tsunami protection Jet of US$ 240 million ) 16

17 Argentina LNG solutions to support NG Demand Bahia Blanca FSRU solution LNG BAHIA BLANCA Neuba II Neuba I Neuba II San Martin Neuba I Bahia Blanca Gasoduto de Exportación Gasoduto de Distribución TGS TGN GASODUCTOS Neuba I Neuba II San Martin EXTENSION (km) DIAMETRO (in) CAPACIDAD (Mm³/d) 24 14, , ,3 17

18 Argentina LNG solutions to support NG Demand Bahia Blanca FSRU solution LNG Ship Profertil FSRU Compañia Mega LNG Ship FSRU 18

19 Argentina LNG solutions to support NG Demand Two new Regas under feasibility studies on Buenos Aires: New FSRU on Buenos Aires leading by YPF On shore terminal PDVSA and Enarsa concluded basic engineering conceptual design 19

20 Brazil LNG solutions to support NG Demand - CE 20

21 Brazil LNG solutions to support NG Demand - RJ 21

22 NG Downstream Business Latin America LNG Virtual Integration Colombia 10 Mm3/d (2013)?? PDVSA LNG (2015)?? Pecem, Brazil 7 Mm3/d (2008) Peru LNG (2010) 4.2 MTPA GNL 18 Mm3/d GN Mejillones, Chile 8 Mm3/d Quintero, Chile 8 12 Mm3/d (2009) Bahia de Guanabara, Brazil 14 Mm3/d (2009) LNG Pre Salt 2015 (??) South of Brazil 6 a 8 Mm3/d (2013) Uruguay 8 Mm3/d (2013)?? Argentina - 10 a 15 Mm3/d ?? Argentina REGAS On Shore Terminal LNG 8 Mm3/d 2008 REGAS Floating Terminal LNG LIQUEFACTION - LNG 22

23 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG Potential Tupi (Iara) and Júpiter 100 Mm3/d (2015 / 16) 23

24 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG Brazil Supply Demand Balance 24

25 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG Brazil Supply Demand Balance Considering seasonal NG Power Plant dispatch export volume Floating LNG 25

26 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG 26

27 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG Analysis to 30 Mm3/d Subsea Gas Pipeline 355 Km straight line 490 Km total extension Tariff = US$ 1,30 / MBtu UPGN = US$ 0,30 / MBtu Tariff Coast - Network = US$ 0,50 / MBtu Tariff Southeast Network US$ 1,0 / MBtu City Gate Pricing on Southeast Network Hipotesis Pre Salt NG Net Back US$ 4 / MBtu US$ 7,1 / MBtu + Gas Pipeline to North or South = US$ 9,5 / MBtu 27

28 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG Analysis to 30 Mm3/d Subsea NGL Pipeline 355 Km straight line 490 Km total extension Tariff = US$ 0,50 / MBtu UPGN = US$ 0,30 / MBtu FLNG US$ 3,5 billion Cost = US$ 1,70 / MBtu Transport LNG until Regas On Shore US$ 1,00 / MBtu Hipotesis Pre Salt NG Net Back US$ 4 / MBtu LNG to Regas North or South US$ 7,50 / MBtu + Regas On Shore Cost = US$ 8,30 / MBtu 28

29 GAS SUPPLY STRUCTURAL IDEAS PRE SALT DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT Tupi, Iara and Jupiter COLOMBIA ECUADOR Lima PERU Santiago VENEZUELA Urucu La Paz BOLIVIA ARGENTINA Manaus Porto Velho PARAGUAY URUGUAY BRAZIL Cuiabá São Francisco do Sul Buenos Aires Brasília Belo Horizonte Porto Alegre Montevideo Fortaleza Salvador Vitória Rio de Janeiro Existing Gas Pipeline Future Gas Pipeline Recife REGAS LNG TERMINAL FUTURE VISION LNG SATELLITE SYSTEM 1. Floating LNG 2. Storage off shore 3. Ship transportation 4. On Shore Terminal with integrated thermal plant 5. Balance Export and no dispatch volumes to spot market during seasonal periods LNG Secondary Spot Market Complementary to thermal dispatch Spot LNG 29

30 Natural Gas Market Brazil New Gas Law 11909/09 New text approval on Senate result from a agreement between: New gas pipelines base on bid concessions and regulated open access; Big modifications from regulatory framework are the new three agents figure now on gas market: Free Consumer, Self Producer and Self Importer. Free Consumer Consumer (big) that has a option to acquire NG from each other producer, importer or trader (permit by some concession distribution contracts) Self Producer - Upstream NG company that use part or a total of natural gas production to your downstream owner operations, row feedstock or fuel. Self Importer Agent that use part or a total of natural gas import to your downstream owner operations, row feedstock or fuel. (permit LNG Regas operations direct to a power plant without Distco s) 30

31 BRAZIL POWER MARKET LNG Potential Market LNG opportunities Source: PSR / Gas Energy Seminary 31

32 BRAZILIAN POWER MARKET 6º.. Power Auctions (A-3) September 2008 September 17 was realized the 6º. Power Auction (A-3) to supply energy on 2011 January; LNG 30 years contract to hydropower and 15 years to other sources; No hydropower offers occurred; Source: Instituto Ascende Brasil 32

33 BRAZILIAN POWER MARKET 7º.. Power Auctions (A-5) September 2008 Total Power Negotiate by Fuel Region Northeast MW Southeast MW Almost 5 GW of fuel oil of power plants total capacity Source: CCEE 33

34 Energy Sector Structure Power Transmission 2,780 km Transmission is an important factor for the integration of hydro power production Brazil is interconnected by 80,000 km of HV lines (>230 kv) + international interconnections Long distances (> 1,000 km) Strong (private) transmission expansion over the last years: 15,000 km of new lines added ( ), concessions awarded on a competitive basis (auctions) 3,450 km 34

35 NG Downstream Business Gas Energy Vision of Future Pre-Salt NG 100 % Southeast Water Reservoirs November 30 Th % of Total Capacity Higher Dispatch Dry Period Jun Nov Summer North Hemisphere Lower Dispatch Rain Season Dec May Winter North Hemisphere Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov SE/CO

36 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) Future UTE TSB Part 3 25 Km Gasbol UTE Uruguaiana TSB Part 1 25 Km TSB 615 Km Petrochemical Complex 300 Km Porto Alegre LNG 6 Mm3/d 85% Power Generation 15% Industrial Local Market TERGAS + UTE RG Rio Grande LNG Rio Grande 36

37 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) Localização GNL e Térmica 37

38 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) LNG PIPELINE 38

39 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) 39

40 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) Future Gas Pipeline to Pelotas and Porto Alegre Pelotas Canal São Gonçalo 35km SIN Power Connection Quinta Substation 230 KV Quinta Grid Connection Gas Pipeline 14km Porto Rio Grande TERGAS + UTE RG 6 Mm3/d MW 40

41 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) 41

42 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) TERGAS LNG REGAS TERMINAL: Projected Investments: US$ 400 millions Storage Capacity 2 tanks x 125 th m3 LNG each Regasification 6 Mm³/d (initial) 1,8 Mtpa 42

43 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) UTE RIO GRANDE Projected Investments US$ 920 millions Capacities: MW (two trains) Each train 2 NG turbines, 2 HSRG and 1 steam turbine Connection on 230 KV to Quinta substation 43

44 TERGAS / UTE RIO GRANDE Power Project (with Regas LNG) OK 2008 December 5th. Kellog, Brown & Root (KBR) contracted to made de conceptual engineer project (two months including de budgetary investments estimative); December 8th. Bourscheid Engenharia contracted to made environmental studies to obtain licenses (EIA/RIMA); December 17th. TERGAS and UTE Rio Grande - Two Memorandum of Understanding - Rio Grande do Sul Governors Authorities and Developers; December 18th. Rio Grande site ceremony and Public Audience to communicate the projects to community (first technical visit from KBR to site and harbor); December 30th Start Environmental License Process January Jetty Localization define and licenses process start; 2009 March KBR s and Omega engineer studies complete; April Conclusion of Environmental Studies; May Public access to Environmental Studies; May Jetty license process complete; June Public Audience of Environmental License; July Previous Environmental Licenses and ANP import authorization; July Financial Capital Structure Definition August Compromise Term to Supply LNG concluded and signed; September Power Auctions documents certification process; October Compromise Term to EPC for both projects concluded and signed; December Probably Power Auctions - EPE (A-5) 2014 January. 44

45 Thank You