ELECTRICITY MARKETS IN LATIN AMERICA: COSTS, PRICES AND QUALITY OF SERVICE

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1 Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile School of Engineering ELECTRICITY MARKETS IN LATIN AMERICA: COSTS, PRICES AND QUALITY OF SERVICE Hugh Rudnick IEEE PES Distinguished Lecturer IEE- IEEE London, UK, April 5, km 500 km. England & Wales Chile (main system) 1

2 Structure of the presentation Latinamerican power sector Power market reform Market design - generation, transmission, distribution Successes Problems and challenges LATINAMERICA a region in transition and growth * Open economies and democratic governments * End of the debt crisis * Economic reforms with market economies encouraging economic growth * Geopolitics reasons increase worldwide interest in the region - the place for investment * Increasing regional commercial exchanges are creating new conditions for economic development 2

3 The American Electricity Market CANADA & UNITED STATES Market of MW 1-2% annual growth = MW a year LATINAMERICA Market of MW 5% annual growth = 9500 MW a year Growth in electricity demand % 12% Chile 10% Bolivia 8% Argentina 6% 4% 2% Brazil Peru 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Growth in GDP 3

4 GDP vs. electricity demand KWh per capita Venezuela Brazil Argentina Peru Chile Mexico Taiwan Greece Portugal S. Korea Hong Kong United States Australia Japan Singapore Germany France United Kingdom Spain Italy GDP per capita (US$) Source: CNE Chile 1997 Latinamerican electrification, % and above 70-90% 50-70% below 50% 4

5 Southamerica: installed capacity per technology (1997) Nuclear 1.2% Thermal 23.2% Others 3.8% Hydro 71.8% Source: Cier 1998 Total Capacity: MW Electricity generation by type, Brazil Generation (TWh) Argentina Colombia Mexico 50 Chile Peru 0 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Load factor Hydro Thermal MarketLine, 1998 Other 5

6 Latin America Asia North America Western Europe Eastern Europe 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% No interest Low importance Important Very important Areas of interest for future power investment (MarketLine, 1998) Structure of the presentation Latinamerican power sector Power market reform Market design - generation, transmission., distribution Successes Problems and challenges 6

7 ELECTRICAL SECTOR- historical development in Latinamerica Initial private developments Government action - vertically integrated utilities (Endesa, Electroperú, Ende, Eletrobras, ISA, Edelca, CFE) Limited private participation ELECTRICAL SECTOR main problems in Latinamerica Financial & economic crisis Tariffs problems and cross subsidies Management problems Infrastructure deterioration High levels of losses Overstaffing 7

8 Drivers of deregulation and privatization - sustain investment with high demand growth - price reductions (not necessarily) - political reasons - open market ideology - fiscal deficit- need to sell State assets International trend -World Bank initiatives -not technological changes -minimum quality levels 1999 MEXICO CENTRAL AMERICA & PANAMA 1994 COLOMBIA 1993 PERU 1994 BOLIVIA BRAZIL CHILE 1992 ARGENTINA Pioneering regulatory changes in the electrical sector 8

9 Structure of the presentation Latinamerican power sector Power market reform Market design - generation, transmission, distribution Successes Problems and challenges ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMS *wholesale market deregulation (unregulated prices for large consumers) *competition at generation level with centralized generation dispatch *short term marginal cost based schemes 9

10 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMS *regulation in transmission and distribution *transmission open access regulation, base for competition, global allocation of network costs *incentive based regulation in distribution (yard stick competition, price cap) Change of paradigma Vertically integrated company -public service company -obligation to serve -protection and rates 10

11 Change of paradigma Generation -competition -no public service -no obligation to serve -no protection Change of paradigma Distribution -franchised monopoly -obligation to serve Transmission -open access obligation 11

12 Structure of the presentation Latinamerican power sector Power market reform Market design - generation, transmission, distribution Successes Problems and challenges Investment in the Chilean Central System DEMAND (MW) CORTADERAL SAN ISIDRO LOMA ALTA RUCUE SES PEUCHEN PANGUE PETROPOWER MAMPIL NEHUENCO RALCO THERM. 332,4 2 X THERM. 332,4 THERM. 332, YEAR Source: CNE Chile DEMAND SUPPLY 12

13 PERU- ELECTRICITY COVERAGE 60% 40% 20% 0% 39% 42% 46% 50% 54% % 83% 83% 86% 87% 90% 90% 80% 91% 100% 60% 40% 20% 0% Ene-94 Jun-94 Ene-95 Jun-95 Dic-95 Jun-96 Dic-96 Dic-97 National Edelnor- Lima WHOLESALE ARGENTINE MARKET AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICE $/MWh jan-92 apr-92 Jul-92 Oct-92 jan-93 apr-93 Jul-93 Oct-93 jan-94 apr-94 Jul-94 Oct-94 jan-95 apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 jan-96 13

14 Energy prices SIC - SING (Oct.1999 values) $/kwh ABRIL 1999 ABRIL 1998 ABRIL 1997 ABRIL 1996 ABRIL 1995 ABRIL 1994 ABRIL 1993 ABRIL 1992 ABRIL 1991 ABRIL 1990 ABRIL 1989 ABRIL 1988 ABRIL 1987 ABRIL 1986 ABRIL 1985 ABRIL 1984 ABRIL 1983 SIC (Alto Jahuel) SING(Antofagasta) VALUE ADDED COST - high voltage distribution 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 FIRM REGULATOR RESULT 0,

15 Energy losses in distribution systems in Perú ( ) 25% 20% 15% 13.9% 15.4% 18.2% 21.8% 20.6% 19.7% 17.1% 14.6% 12.4% 11.8% 10% 5% 0% E. Zolezzi, CTE, Oct. 99 ENDESA productivity increase: production (GWh) versus number of employees in Chile 14,000 12,000 10,000 Production (GWh) 8,521 10,022 10,627 11,277 11,783 12,898 8,000 6,649 6,609 6,000 N Employees 4,000 2,980 2,833 2,445 2,347 2,088 1,970 1,998 1,692 2,

16 Clients per Worker GWh per Worker PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AT DISTRIBUTION COMPANY EDELNOR- PERU CHILE- PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AT DISTRIBUTION COMPANY CHILECTRA Hrs. 6.0 Average time for emergency service

17 Colombia Venezuela M. Pereira, 1999 Ecuador Perú-SICN Brasil-N Brasil-NE Perú-SISUR Bolivia Brasil-SE Chile-SING Argentina Mercado Paraguay Brasil-Sur Chile-SIC Uruguay Argentina Comahue Growing electric interconections CIER, 1996 Growing gas interconections 17

18 Non served energy January 88 - Dec 95 (GWh) - Argentina Structure of the presentation Latinamerican power sector Power market reform Market design - generation, transmission, distribution Successes Problems and challenges 18

19 PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES IN MARKET DESIGN -independent operator (Chile) -transmission open access (Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Perú) -distribution pricing (Bolivia, Chile, Perú) -blackout crisis (Argentina, Chile) -regional energy market GOVERNANCE OF THE POOL Generation -problems with pool governance -spot price calculations -capacity payments -reliability control 19

20 GOVERNANCE OF THE POOL Assumptions -a central dispatch is needed for competing generators -governance better achieved by agreement among all participants -with perfect competition, prices will be marginal costs -central dispatch needed to clear the wholesale market (Adam Smith role) Market design -central dispatch as a single system irrespective of ownership -marginal cost based dispatch (traditional pool) -large generators form a club that acts as an independent operator -agreements to be achieved unanimously, otherwise regulator intervenes Market reality -competition on cost of supply (efficiencies increased, new technologies introduced- CCGT) and on commercial actions (contract portfolios) -club scheme operates well for over 10 years (outside criticism by parties that are not able to participate) 20

21 -as competition increases and prices decrease, unanimous agreements become the exception (disagreements on determination of spot price, dispatch models, transmission modeling, operation security strategies) -governing difficulties -regulator essentially directing the actions of the pool, with no interest to do so -reliability endangered by disagreements Divergences within the pool (CDEC-SIC) Number of divergences Year 21

22 TRANSMISSION PRICING Transmission -problems with open access tariffs -lack of expansion signals -congestion TRANSMISSION PRICING Assumptions - agents that cause transmission expansion must pay for use - generators and consumers- differences among countries Market design -transmission payments based on natural economic use of lines, no relation with commercial use and contracts -natural use measured as incremental use under economic dispatch -peak capacity use or energy use 22

23 Market reality -weak definition of natural use -disputes on how to measure natural use -incremental measure dependent on marginal bus location -no clear definition on handling of network restrictions and economic decoupling of areas of the system 100% 90% 80% Payments [%] 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% A PC/PD A A A G G G 0% Peak block Single bus Block single bus Block variable bus Generators Method 100% 90% 80% Payments [%] 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% A PC/PD A A A G G G 0% Peak block Single bus Block single bus Block variable bus Consumers Method 23

24 DISTRIBUTION PRICING Distribution -conflicts in tariff calculations -quality of service Assumptions -economies of scope give place to monopolistic activity -geographic franchised activity subject to regulation -strategic objective for pricing is to avoid welfare losses from monopoly pricing, provide signal for economic efficiency (investment and operation), with symmetry of risk and opportunities for regulated firm -obligation to serve (only one in electricity chain) -competition by comparison (benchmarking) reduces asymmetry of information about the firm s costs 24

25 Market design -prices based on cost comparison against an efficient model firm -value added cost of distribution based on hypotethical model distribution firms -standardized costs, optimally sized firms and optimal business management -typical standardized distribution areas -independent studies by consultant requested by regulator and firms -preliminary prices determined and coherency check for revenue of the whole distribution industry Total monthly cost for area 2 (Chile, 1988) Total cost (MUS$/Month) Maximum demand (MW) Average value 10,2 US$/kW/month 25

26 Market reality (Chile, 1996) -complete study bases issued by regulator for 39 distribution companies, 5 typical distribution areas -differences in criteria between regulator and firms -unclear definition on treatment of unregulated consumers, economies of scope, stand-alone firm or shared-costs firm, criteria for optimal installation expansion, technological updating, useful life for installations -extended legal battles Differences among value added costs as determined by regulator and companies High voltage distribution Low voltage distribution % de variación High Average Low -17 Distribution density % de variación High Average Low Distribution density 26

27 BLACKOUT CRISIS Generation -unsupplied energy Regulator intervention for adequacy *capacity payments *regulated tariffs for small consumers 27

28 System operator and security *freedom to compete? *mandatory poolco approach Penalties Chile *drought *combined cycle failure *rotating blackouts 28

29 RESERVOIR STORED ENERGY 7, ,000.0 GIGAWATTS HOUR (GWh) 5, , , , , /01/94 1/04/94 1/07/94 1/10/94 1/01/95 1/04/95 1/07/95 1/10/95 1/01/96 1/04/96 1/07/96 1/10/96 1/01/97 1/04/97 1/07/97 1/10/97 1/01/98 1/04/98 1/07/98 1/10/98 1/01/99 1/04/99 1/07/99 1/10/99 1/01/00 RAPEL INVERNADA COLBUN CHAPO LAJA Chile *no lack of investment *decoupled price signals *contracts do not oblige generators to serve *weak coordination pool *low unsupplied energy cost *law changed to impose obligation to serve 29

30 Argentina *substation failure *extended blackout Argentina *no lack of investment *lack of coordination *low unsupplied energy cost *penalties imposed 30

31 REGIONAL ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENT Commercial/market agreements Gas interconnections Electricity interconnections Lima PERU BOLIVIA Santa Cruz BRASIL Excedentes Hidráulicos Mejillones NOA PARAGUAY Asunción Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro CHILE Santiago Concepción URUGUAY ARGENTINA Buenos Aires Neuquén Important load Natural gas resources Figura 2 Hydroelectric resources Geographic distribution of consumer loads and energy resources Endesa

32 Asunción Asunción Santa Cruz PARAGUAY Rio de Janeiro Hugh Rudnick, IEE-IEEE Lecture, London, April 5, 2000 Interconnections and market integration Lima Electroducto Argentina Chile PERU BOLIVIA BRASIL Excedentes Hidráulicos Gasoducto Atacama Mejillones Asunción NOA Sao Paulo Interconexión SING-SIC Carrera Pinto Asunción Interconexión Gasoducto San Isidro Santiago URUGUAY Argentina Brasil Gasandes Buenos Aires Concepción Neuquén Electroductos Tucumán - Carrera Pinto Generación Hidro Mendoza - San Isidro Sur Austral Electroducto Alicurá - Osorno Gasoducto del Pacífico Endesa 1999 Integration among markets -price equilibrium among markets -natural gas grows in importance - large gas companies join the electricity market -minimum size of companies changes - expansion to other markets and new economies of scale -decisions of gas and electricity expansion projects are linked 32

33 Technology impact: combined cycle plants -new plants replacing coal plants -combined cycle defining long run marginal cost (substantially lower that the historic one) -combined cycle competing with transmission and changing investment patterns Restructuring of the world electricity market -arrival to Latinamerica of main world energy (gas and electricity) players looking for regional portfolios -increase of competition versus increase of vertical and horizontal integration -prices initially on a downward trend -regional expansion of transmission -need for regional common regulatory arrangements 33

34 Hugh Rudnick Professor Department of Electrical Engineering Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Santiago, Chile 34

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