Quant Briefing: Earnings Surprise Monitor

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1 Quant Briefing: Earnings Monitor August 19, 1 Dr. Ed Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary 1 S&P Sectors Earnings for Current Quarter S&P Sectors Revenue for Current Quarter 3 S&P Historical Earnings S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s - S&P Historical Revenue 7 S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s 8-9 August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

3 S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary Table 1A: S&P Earnings (as of August 19, 1) % Y/Y % Growth % Positive % Negative # Companies Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q-9.9 -/ Q Q Table 1B: S&P Revenue % Y/Y % Growth % Positive % Negative # Companies Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % surprise = difference between actual and consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Page 1 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

4 S&P Sectors Earnings for Current Quarter Table A: S&P Aggregate Earnings -1 (as of August 19, 1) Sector % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS Growth (%) Actual Y/Y EPS Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Growth Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Table B: Slices & Dices Sector/Industries % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS Growth (%) Actual Y/Y EPS Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Growth Negative Y/Y EPS Growth Negative Y/Y EPS Growth S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials S&P ex-tech S&P REITs Composite S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation S&P Industrials ex-ge S&P ex-apple Information Technology ex-apple Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

5 S&P Sectors Revenue for Current Quarter Table 3A: S&P Aggregate -1 (as of August 19, 1) Sector % Expected Y/Y Growth (%) Actual Y/Y Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative Positive Y/Y Growth Negative Y/Y Growth Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Table 3B: Slices & Dices Sector % Expected Y/Y Growth (%) Actual Y/Y Growth (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative Positive Y/Y Growth Negative Y/Y Growth S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials S&P ex-tech S&P REITs Composite S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation S&P Industrials ex-ge S&P ex-apple Information Technology ex-apple Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page 3 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

6 1 Figure 1. S&P Historical Earnings S&P NET EARNINGS SURPRISE* (percent) * Percentage of S&P companies that reported earnings are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Earnings surprise capped at -% during Q Figure. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES* (percent of companies) * Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

7 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s Figure 3. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY earnings surprise (%) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) CONSUMER STAPLES CONSUMER STAPLES ENERGY ENERGY FINANCIALS FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

8 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s 1 1 Figure. INDUSTRIALS earnings surprise (%) INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES UTILITIES Page / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

9 3. 3. Figure. S&P Historical Revenue S&P NET REVENUE SURPRISE* (percent) * Percentage of S&P companies that reported revenues are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. 1 8 Figure. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVENUE SURPRISES* (percent of companies) * Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the revenue report. Page 7 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

10 S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - Figure 7. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY revenue surprise (%) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) CONSUMER STAPLES CONSUMER STAPLES ENERGY ENERGY FINANCIALS FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE Page 8 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

11 S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - Figure 8. INDUSTRIALS revenue surprise (%) INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES UTILITIES Page 9 / August 19, 1 / Earnings Monitor

12 Copyright (c) 1. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on, blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of, blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request.

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