Market Briefing: Commodity Prices

Transcription

1 Market Briefing: Commodity Prices February 9, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Commodity Price Indexes 1-2 Energy 3-4 Basic Metals 5-7 Lumber 8 Precious Metals 9-10 Agriculture Misc: CRB Index Misc: Energy Misc: Agriculture 17 Misc: Precious Metals 18 Misc: Grains February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

3 Figure 1. Commodity Price Indexes CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES* (1967=) * Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 2. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 1 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

4 Commodity Price Indexes 1 10 Figure 3. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=) Raw Industrials (422.7) 6 Metals Component (581.8) Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES (1967=) CRB Raw Industrials Price Index CRB Futures Price Index Page 2 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

5 Energy Figure 5. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) Price (33.12) * Nearby futures price. 4.5 Figure 6. GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon) Price (0.90) day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 3 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

6 Figure 7. HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon) Energy Price (0.97) day moving average * Nearby contract Figure 8. NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per MMBTU) Price (2.10) day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 4 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

7 1 Figure 9. Basic Metals CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (daily, 1967=) day moving average * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Figure 10. COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (cents per pound) Price (203.85) day moving average * Nearby futures contract. Page 5 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

8 225 Figure 11. LEAD, RN NA SOLDER CASH PRICE (cents per pound) Basic Metals Price (111.93) day moving average Figure 12. STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP CASH PRICE (dollars per gr. ton) Price ( ) day moving average 0 Page 6 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

9 2 Figure 13. TIN CASH PRICE (cents per pound) Basic Metals 2 0 Price (969.95) day moving average Figure 14. ZINC CASH PRICE (cents per pound) Price (85.70) day moving average 30 Page 7 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

10 Figure 15. RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE* ($/0 board ft) Lumber Price (.70) day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Page 8 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

11 Precious Metals Figure 16. GOLD CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) D A Price ( ) day moving average D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy. Figure 17. SILVER CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) Price (15.44) day moving average Page 9 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

12 2 2 Figure 18. PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) Precious Metals Price (937.70) day moving average * Nearby contract. 0 Figure 19. PALLADIUM CASH PRICE ($/troy oz) 0 Price (522.00) day moving average 0 Page 10 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

13 19 1 Figure 20. SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture Price (863.25) day moving average * Nearby contract. 8 Figure 21. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 8 6 Price (361.00) day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 11 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

14 Figure 22. WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture Price (457.) day moving average * Nearby contract. 2.5 Figure 23. COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) Price (0.59) day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 12 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

15 6 Figure 24. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=) Misc: CRB Index * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 25. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, ratio scale) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 13 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

16 Figure 26. CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (1967=, ratio scale) Misc: CRB Index * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure 27. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, ratio scale) * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 14 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

17 Figure 28. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) Misc: Energy * Nearby futures price. Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics. 160 Figure 29. COMMODITY PRICES CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

18 Figure 30. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per gallon) Misc: Energy Heating Oil (0.97) Gasoline (0.90) * Nearby contract Figure 31. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, ratio scale) Jan * Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page 16 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

19 8 6 Figure 32. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Misc: Agriculture SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. 0 Page 17 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

20 Figure 33. GOLD FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz) Misc: Precious Metals day moving average * Nearby contract. 0 Page 18 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

21 Figure 34. S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX (January 5, 1970=) Misc: Grains Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Figure 35. S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX (December 31, 1969=) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Page 19 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

22 Figure 36. S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX (December 31, 1969=) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Misc: Grains Figure 37. S&P GSCI CORN INDEX (December =) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Page 20 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.

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