Automotive Battery Market Outlook Update 2015
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1 Automotive Battery Market Outlook Update 2015 A report of the EUROBAT Automotive Battery Committee Nicolo Gasparin Committee chair
2 EUROBAT ABC Statistics Content 1. SLI battery markets A. SLI Standard batteries replacement by Advanced L-A confirmed* B. OEM Standard Lead battery market (without start/stop)* C. OEM Advanced lead battery market (with start/stop)* D. EU trend: advanced L-A battery market (OEM+OES+AM)** E. EU trend: standard versus advanced batteries** 2. Hybrid Electric (HEVs) & plug-in hybrids ((p)hevs) battery markets* A. OEM Battery market estimates B. Split NiMH / Li-Ion Batteries 293. April Full 2014 Electric Vehicles (Evs)* A. OEM EV Battery market estimates *Based on OEM Light Vehicle Production data IHS/Polk 1Q2015 **Based on EUROBAT Internal ABC SLI Surveys 2
3 1. SLI Battery Markets C. OEM SLI market shift (Sales estimates in M units large Europe*) 5.6M 7.1M 9.2M 11.4M 14.0M 14.5M 12.1M 10.8M 8.4M 5.6M Conclusions - Standard lead batteries replacement trend by advanced (EFB/AGM) to be continued - In 5 years: Market ratio «standard SLI / Advanced SLI in Europe will be reversed 3 *Based on HIS/Polk OEM Light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015)
4 1. SLI Battery Markets A. OEM SLI Standard lead batteries (Sales estimates in M units large Europe*) 16,0M 14,0M 14.5M 12.1M 12,0M 10,0M 10.2M 8.4M 8,0M 6,0M 5.6M 4,0M 2,0M Conclusions - Consecutive double-digit drops every year to be continued - Expectation for 2015: drop -33% from 8.4 to 5.6 M units (-2,8 M units) *Based on HIS/Polk OEM light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015) 4
5 1. SLI Battery Markets B. OEM SLI Advanced lead batteries (Sales estimates in M units large Europe*) (Advanced L-A = EFB & AGM) 16,0M 14,0M 12,0M 10,0M 9.2M 11.4M 14.0M 8,0M 6,0M 4,0M 2,0M 5.6M 7.1M Conclusions - Consecutive double-digit increases every year continued - Expectation for 2015: increase +22.5% from 11.4 to 14 M units (+2,6 M units) 5 *Based on HIS/Polk OEM light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015)
6 1. SLI Battery Markets D. European trend: Sales of advanced lead-based batteries (in M units OEM/OES/AM EU 28, NO and CH) 16,0M 14,0M 13.5M Trend continued 12,0M 11.3M 10,0M 8.7M 8,0M 6,0M 4,0M 2,0M 3.8M 6.1M Source: EUROBAT Internal Surveys combined AGM and EFB 6
7 1. SLI Battery Markets E. European trend: Standard versus Advanced lead-based batteries (in M units OEM/OES/AM EU 28, NO and CH) 50,5 50,1 53,9 54,7 +20,1% 53,2 AGM/EFB Standard L-A -8,5% Advanced L-A batteries continued to progressive market share In M units OEM/OES/AM EU28, NO and CH) Source: EUROBAT Internal Surveys combined AGM and EFB EU 28,NO and CH) 7
8 2. HEV & phevs A. OEM Battery market (Sales estimates in units large Europe*) Battery pack: Voltage 48V-650V & capacity kwh Conclusions - Small in values but significant increases every year - Strong increase (+46%) expected for Many (p)hev have a secondary on-board L-A battery Sales estimates in units large Europe *Based on HIS/Polk OEM light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015) 8
9 2. HEV & phevs B. Split NiMH / Li-Ion OEM Battery markets(sales estimates in units large Europe*) Battery pack: Voltage 48V-650V & capacity kwh 29 Conclusions April Li-Ion: -Takes over from NiMH, - Re-inforced by plug-in technology: prediction +298% for NiMH: In absolute values still increasing: prediction +8% for 2015 Sales estimates in units large Europe. *Based on HIS/Polk OEM light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015) 9
10 3. EVs OEM battery market (estimates in units large Europe*) Battery pack: Voltage 84V-440V & capacity 14,4-60 kwh Conclusions - Dominated by Li-Ion - Small in values, but 100% market increases in 2013 and in Expected slow down of growth, still reaching 23% for Most EVs have a secondary L-A battery on-board Estimates in units large Europe. *Based on HIS/Polk OEM light vehicle production data - large Europe (including Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) - update 1Q2015) 10
11 - Thank You - For more information contact us at [email protected], [email protected] and/or [email protected]
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