BUY Target Price: Rs 1,400

Transcription

1 Consistent; gaining ground faster HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported an in-line Q4FY16, with PAT of Rs 33.7bn (up 20% YoY) driven by robust 24% YoY growth in NII. Hallmark of earnings was 27% YoYgrowth in advances significantly above industry s growth rate (~11% YoY); the beat implies market share gain for HDFCB in both retail and corporate segments. NIM was resilient at 4.3% and asset qualitypristine. Our view: HDFCB s business growth will continue, and the bank will gain market share further. Expect CAGR loan growth at 24% over FY Foresee headwinds to margins from MCLR regime and increased competition, though impact would be marginal. Management is confident of maintaining margins in the range of %. 25 APR 2016 Quarterly Update BUY Target Price: Rs 1,400 CMP : Rs 1,092 Potential Upside : 28% MARKET DATA No. of Shares : 2,528mn Free Float : 74% Market Cap : Rs2,762bn 52-week High / Low : Rs1,128 / Rs929 Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 1.5 mn shares Bloomberg Code : HDFCB IB Equity Promoters Holding : 26% FII / DII : 32% / 14% Q4 key highlights: (a) Loan growth (+27%YoY) was propped up by both retail (+30%YoY) and wholesale (+27%YoY) loans; (b) spike in home loan portfolio was from HDFCB buying out 70% of loans originated for HDFC Ltd (vs 50% earlier); (c) LDRimproved to 85% (up ~160 bps QoQ),as deposit growth (+21%) lagged advances growth; (d) GNPA ratio improved slightly to 0.94% while NNPA ratio was flat QoQ; (e) ~Rs3bn of floating provisions were drawn down to provide against agri-credit facility lent to Punjab and a large corporate account;(f) non-interest income growth (+11.8% YoY) was tepid, dragged down by volatile streams, with core fee income posting healthy growth (+18% YoY). Valuation and view:we expect RoA to increase to ~2% in medium term on the back of market share gains, fee income growth, and maturing investments in branch network. Focus on rural and digital initiatives would also bear meaningful dividends. HDFCB remains an enviable franchise and will continue to demand valuation premium. It is amongst our top picks in the sector.at CMP of Rs 1,092 the stock trades at 3.3x/2.8x FY17E/FY18E ABV of Rs330/Rs387. We roll forward our estimates to FY18, valuing HDFCB at 3.6x FY18 P/ABV to arrive at TP of Rs 1,400 (28% upside from CMP). Financial summary (Standalone) PAT (Rs bn) EPS (Rs) EPS chg Book value (Rs) Adj. BV (Rs) PE (x) P/ABV (x) RoE RoA Net NPA Key drivers Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Loan growth (YoY) NIM CASA GNPA ratio Price performance Sensex HDFC Bank Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 01

2 Q4FY16 results highlights Loan growth well above industry: Growth in Advances (+27% YoY) to Rs4.65tn was driven equally by retail loans (up ~30% YoY) and wholesale loans (up 27.2% YoY). Growth in retail advances was across the board, with each subsegment growing at a pace significantly above the system. The bank is constantly gaining market share, and we expect this trend to continue.we expect HDFCB to report CAGR loan growth of 24% over FY Exhibit 1: Market share of system advances & deposits Advances Deposits We believe HDFCB will continue growing above the industry, and gain market share We expect HDFCB to report CAGR loan growth of 24% over FY FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 LDR improves, CASAamongst best in class: LDR ratio increased to 85% (up ~160 bps QoQ) as Deposits (+21% YoY) grew a tad slower than advances. CASA ratio remained best in class at 43%, and was driven more by CA (up 20.2% YoY to Rs 0.9tn) than SA (up 18% YoY to Rs1.5tn). However, the sharp jump in CA deposits could be on account of seasonal trend. Exhibit 2: Trend in advances and deposits growth 35 Advances Growth Deposits Growth Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 NIM resilient at 4.3%:Despite declining yields (base rate cut at the beginning of the quarter), NIM stood its ground at 4.3% and was set off by decline in cost of deposits. We foresee headwinds to margins from MCLR regime and increased competition, though the impact would be marginal. The management is confident of maintaining the margins in the range of 4-4.4% 02

3 Healthy pick-up in core fee income:non-interest income growth (+13% YoY) howeverwas tepid, dragged down by volatile streams. Nonetheless, core fee income posted healthy growth (+18% YoY) well-supported by volume increase in insurance and mutual fund units Healthy asset quality:asset quality remained pristine and improved moderately, as GNPAs declined to 0.94% while NNPAs came in flat at 0.28% (0.29% in Q3FY16).Slippages were at Rs 17 bn (1.5%) and ~Rs 3.0 bn of floating provisions were drawn down to provide against agri-credit facility lent to Punjab and a large corporate account. O/s restructured loans remained stable at 0.1% of advances. 24 APR 2016 Quarterly Update Pick-up in loangrowth will push fee income up in medium term Exhibit 3: Trend in headline asset quality numbers GNPA NNPA PCR (RHS) Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 67 Aggressively expanding footprint: The bank continued adding branches (239 in 4Q; 506 for FY16) while maintaining cost-to-income ratio. Exhibit 4: Rapid branch expansion but with controlled costs 5,000 Existing Branches Additions Cost to Income (RHS) 4, ,000 3, , , , ,500 1,000 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY We believe expanding branch network and focus on rural and digital presence will provide rich dividends, as and when these investments mature 03

4 Exhibit 5: Results update 24 APR 2016 Quarterly Update Quarter ended 12 months ended (Rs mn) Mar-16 Mar-15 % Chg Dec-15 % Chg Mar-17E Mar-16 % Chg Interest income 159, , , , , Interest expended 85,434 69, , , , Net interest income 74,533 60, , , , Non-interest income 28,659 25, ,722 (0) 127, , Net income 103,192 85, , , , Operating expenses 45,843 38, , , , Operating profit 57,349 47, ,359 (0) 256, , Provision & Contingencies 6,625 5, , ,154 27, PBT 50,725 41, ,820 (0) 220, , Tax 16,982 13, ,251 (2) 74,557 63, Net profit 33,742 28, , , , Yields & Margins Yield on advances (0.4) 10.7 (0.1) (0.2) Cost of funds (0.1) 5.8 (0.1) (0.1) Net interest margin (10) bps bps (4)bps Cost to income ratio (52) bps bps bps Asset quality Gross NPAs (Rs bn) Gross NPAs bps 1.0 (3) bps (1) bps Net NPAs (Rs bn) Net NPAs bps 0.3 (1) bps (2) bps Provisioning coverage (399) bps 70.4 (43) bps bps Capital Tier-I (50) bps bps (103) bps CAR (130) bps 15.9 (40) bps (55) bps Balance sheet (Rs bn) Advances 4,646 3, , ,807 4, Deposits 5,464 4, , ,725 5, CASA (78) bps bps (135) bps Note: Full year ratios are on calculated basis 04

5 Financial summary (Standalone) Profit & loss (Rsbn) Interest earned Interest expended (261) (326) (394) (476) Net interest income Non interest income Net income Operating expenses (140) (170) (205) (238) Staff expenses (48) (57) (69) (76) Other operating expenses (92) (113) (136) (161) Operating profit Provisions & contingencies (21) (27) (36) (44) Pre-tax profit Tax expense (51) (63) (75) (90) Profit after tax Extraordinary item Minority interest/associates Adj. PAT Balance sheet (Rsbn) Total assets 5,905 7,088 8,685 10,468 Cash & Balances with RBI Investments 1,516 1,639 1,939 2,262 Advances 3,655 4,646 5,807 7,141 Fixed assets Other assets Total liabilities 5,905 7,088 8,685 10,468 Equity capital Preference capital Reserves & surplus Networth Borrowings Deposits 4,508 5,464 6,725 8,147 Other liabilities & prov Key ratios Per share data FDEPS (Rs.) BV (Rs.) Adj. BV (Rs.) DPS (Rs.) Dividend payout Yields & Margins Yield on advances Cost of deposit Net interest margin Asset quality Gross NPAs Net NPAs Credit cost Provisioning coverage Capital Tier-I CAR Efficiency ROA ROE Cost to income CASA Effective tax rate Growth Net interest income Fee income Operating expenses Profit after tax Advances Deposits Total assets

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