Wind energy manufacturers' challenges

Transcription

1 Wind energy manufacturers' challenges Using turbulent times to become fit for future Hamburg, 2009

2 D. Way forward How Roland Berger can support you Page 30 Content A. Crisis 2009 and beyond Only a short calm for the wind market B. Challenges ahead Using turbulent times to become fit for future Page 3 Page 15 2

3 A. CRISIS 2009 AND BEYOND Only a short calm for the wind market 3

4 The crisis has brought a calm to the wind industry Long-term growth trend still intact with 17% growth p.a. until 2012 Forecasts comparison Pre-crisis vs. actual Worldwide yearly added capacity [GW] Forecast pre-crisis Source: BTM 2008 and % p.a. GROWTH SLOWDOWN Actual forecasts ROOT CAUSES Slowdown... > Lack of financing, especially for large projects Required equity share has increased typically in Europe from ~15% to ~30% plus additional insurances > Reduced urgency to compensate high prices of electricity from fossil sources (oil price evolution) > Uncertainty regarding general development of the worldwide economy, financing and subsidies' volume associated to economic slowdown... but growth trend still intact: > Economic stimulus packages strongly support renewable energies, especially wind > Strong growth share in countries less dependant on financial markets (China) > Ambitious government goals for renewable energy share in core markets (e.g. USA, Europe, China, India...) > Cost penalties for fossil energies in Europe (ETS) 4

5 While the industry is expected to grow healthily, margins of manufacturers will come under strong pressure Key market trends 1 Medium and long-term investment and growth plans in key markets Impact on Growth + Impact on Margin O 2 Wind energy costs converge towards grid parity + 3 Large scale entry of utilities is changing rules + 4 Focus on global network of local supply chains New entrants pressure established players + Positive O Neutral Negativ O Source: Roland Berger 5

6 1 INVESTMENT AND GROWTH PLANS Governments are establishing ambitious investment and growth plans for wind energy all over the world Worldwide actual and potential wind power capacity [GW] North America Installed Potential ) EWEA reference scenario Europe Installed Potential RoW Installed Potential Asia/Pacific Installed Potential TOP GROWTH MARKETS EU countries > Proposed target of 20% of renewable energy sources by 2020 wind contributing to 11-14% of electrical energy with 180 GW, including 35 GW offshore 1) > Total investments between accounting for EUR 120 bn USA > Proposed target of 20% wind power by 2030 > Economic stimulus bill including USD ~80 bn for renewable energy, including extension of production tax credits and offering of investment tax credits > Investment plans include initiatives for the transmission system which constrains the wind energy growth today CHINA > 3% target of non-hydro renewable electricity production by GW of wind power capacity by 2020 > "10 GW Size Wind Base" program planning large scale deployment of 10 GW of wind power in four key regions until 2020 India > Government plans for wind power capacity of 40 GW by 2022 > Offshore wind, currently untapped in India, has significant potential India has 7,000 miles of coast line Source: EER, EWEA, GWEC 6

7 1 INVESTMENT AND GROWTH PLANS " " targets bind EU countries to produce 20% of their power with renewables Wind best positioned to fill the supply gap Impacts of the EU ETS on utilities EU Climate and Energy Package, December 2008 Europe " " targets % CO 2 emissions of 1990 levels by % renewables share of energy mix by % energy used of 2020 projected levels IMPACTS FOR UTILITIES > Utilities are responsible for around ¾ of CO 2 emissions of all branches of industry > Utilities will be allowed to emit only as much CO 2 as they have emissions allowances (certificates) > From 2013 on utilities will have to buy 100% of their certificates 1) in auctions and may trade them afterwards (EU ETS 2) ) > By 2020 the total number of available certificates will be reduced by 21% > A considerable number of coal-fired power plants will have to be substituted wind is the most mature renewable source to fill the supply gap and to reach the national quotas of renewable energy 1) Utilities in East European countries are exempted and will get 70% of their required certificates for free after 2013 until ) Emissions Trading Scheme Source: EU Council 7

8 2 GRID PARITY Wind energy costs still need to decrease to reach full parity with bulk power costs Main driver is the price for wind turbines Historic and forecasted energy cost development in Europe [EUR/MWh] Grid Fossil Solar PV Grid Bulk Power Wind max Wind min REMARKS > Energy costs account for: Capital costs O&M costs Fuel costs (not for renewables) CO 2 emission costs (25-30 EUR/t) > Increase of wind energy costs between 2005 and 2010 due to increased capital costs because of high wind turbine prices > Capacity constraints and high price for wind turbines assumed to continue until 2010 Source: EWEA, IEA, RISO, Roland Berger 8

9 2 GRID PARITY Wind turbines' cost is the main lever to decrease wind energy prices strong price reductions expected Typical life cycle costs of a 2-MW onshore wind turbine [%] REMARKS "Turbine costs will decline by 20% in the next 3 years" [Acciona Energia] 57% Turbine (ex works) 7% 5% Grid connection Founddation 7% Other up-front costs 76% 24% 100% > Wind turbine acquisition costs is the main lever for utilities to reduce overall wind energy costs > Wind turbine suppliers have to plan with strong price and profit margins reduction in the next years Total capex O&M Total > For offshore, the wind turbine accounts for 45%-50% of the total life cycle costs, varying strongly with water depth and distance to coast deployment and O&M much higher than for offshore > Other up-front costs include: Land up-front costs Electric installation Consultancy Financial costs Road construction Control systems > O&M account for: Service & spare parts 26% Administration 21% Land rent 18% Miscellaneous 17% Insurance 13% Power from the grid 5% Source: EWEA, DEWI, Eon, RWE, Roland Berger 9

10 3 ENTRY OF UTILITIES Six key factors are driving the utilities to increase wind in their portfolio, broadening their energy mix OIL AND GAS RISK > Oil and gas prices and supply uncertainty increases the need for utilities to reduce their exposure > Wind broadens the energy mix cost-effectively CRISIS "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" > Problems for small and medium wind players to access financing > Acquisition of locations, equipment and know-how at low prices relying on strong cash flow from operations EU " " TARGETS FOR 2020 > Utilities are forced to auction 100% of required CO 2 certificates after 2013 > Operation with CO 2 -intensive energies (e.g. coal) will become more expensive Utilities' growth in wind energy market > Strong focus on reliability and yield > Global supply of wind turbines > Own project management and O&M organizations SHORT LEAD TIME OF WIND > Global energy demand grows by 10-20% each year > Building a standard wind park takes only 3-5 years, a much shorter lead time than that of a conventional plant PROMOTE GREEN IMAGE > General public increases awareness on environmental issues > Utilities need to promote a green image opposed to the traditional "polluter" one POLITICAL INCENTIVES > Support by political initiatives making wind energy production more attractive (e.g. tax incentives, feed-in tariffs) Source: Roland Berger 10

11 3 ENTRY OF UTILITIES Wind turbine manufacturers loose negotiation power Current favorable delivery and price conditions expected to decrease From a sellers' to a buyers' market > Intense competition for market share in growth markets and for key clients Dominance of top 6 wind turbine manufacturers constantly decrea- sing (market share from 85% in 2005 to 69% in 2008) Competition from local players in growth markets and specialists intensifies > Increased capacities and ability to deliver Major investments are alleviating supply shortages in critical areas Loss of negotiation Power > Fewer but larger orders Larger project sizes, both for new parks and repowering activities Global framework agreements > Global reach of main utilities Main utilities operate internationally in key growth markets global key accounts > Strong pressure to reduce renewable energy costs Grid parity is one of the key levers to achieve established renewable energy targets 11

12 3 ENTRY OF UTILITIES Bigger wind park projects and framework agreements are intensifying the competition among WTM for fewer but larger orders Bigger wind park projects and framework agreements TOWARDS BIGGER WIND PARK PROJECTS Average number of turbines Number of farms > Average wind farm size increased by 20% in the last four years larger projects over 50 MW are expected in the next years, specially offshore > Wind park size is a key factor for the industrialization of wind energy FEWER BUT LARGER ORDERS > Harder competition among WTMs > Crucial importance of partnerships and key account management TOWARDS FRAMEWORK AGREEMENTS Competitors have entered into major deals with utilities > Siemens agreement with Dong Energy for 1800MW > REpower will manufacture for RWE wind turbines amounting 1900 MW > Utilities are allocating large orders and establishing framework agreements with selected suppliers partnerships focusing to develop joint growth approaches > Number of suppliers to the major utilities is reduced 12

13 4 LOCAL SUPPLY CHAINS Supply chain focus is changing from the ability to deliver to the global development of local supply networks Focus today vs. tomorrow FOCUS TODAY FOCUS TOMORROW FAL Components Manufacturing > Ability to deliver Secure supply of key components > Ways to overcome constraints of oligopolistic markets for gearboxes and bearings > Develop clusters with local supply networks in key markets on a global level > Importance of "Buy Local" to participate in governmental economic stimulus programs 13

14 5 MANUFACTURERS LANDSCAPE Dominance by top six players is decreasing strongly Intense battle for market share expected the next two years Overview market shares [% MW delivered] 100% 9% 100% 85% 1% 2% 3% 6% 6% 14% 69% 13% 18% 28% % 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 8% 9% 11% 17% 18% 2008 Others Sinovel Acciona Goldwind Nordex Siemens Suzlon Enercon Gamesa GE Energy Vestas REMARKS > Market dominated by Vestas, GE, Gamesa, Enercon, Suzlon, and Siemens, accounting for 69% of delivered MW > Competition for market share intensifies tougher conditions expected in Market share of top 6 suppliers decreased from 85% to 69% in 2008 More than 10 other turbine vendors fighting for market share in regional markets - Offshore specialists: REpower, Multibrid - Local players: Clipper, Dongfang - Others: Mitsubishi, Windflow, Fuhrländer, Windey, Ecotecnia, Dewind, Unison, Hyosung, Doosan > Strong growth Chinese and American markets strengthen local suppliers further market share gains expected USA: GE from 15% in 2007 to 17% in 2008 other suppliers as Clipper emerging (2% in 2008) China: Sinovel and Goldwind from 7% to 8% together other suppliers as Dongfang emerging (3% in 2008) Top 6 Rest Source: BTM, EER, Companies, Roland Berger 14

15 B. CHALLENGES AHEAD Using turbulent times to become fit for future 15

16 To protect the market position and margins, wind turbine manufacturers need to address four challenges Challenges wind turbine manufacturers 1 CAPTURE MARKET 2 LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGY 3 ENHANCE SUPPLY CHAIN 4 RESTRUCTURE OPERATIONS > Benefit from government incentive programs > Secure access to profitable key markets and clients > Drive standardization, modularization and development of platforms > Manage complex technology trade-offs beyond pure performance criteria, focusing on life cycle costs > Manage risk of supplier base > Eliminate supply constraints > Establish and manage local supply chains on a global scale > Manage liquidity shortages and adjust capacities in the short term > Further industrialize operations > Build up global operations footprint USE CURRENT SLOW DOWN TO PUSH AHEAD INITIATIVES! Source: Roland Berger 16

17 1 MARKET The three top markets Europe, USA and China have extensive incentive programs for renewable energy on place Overview main country markets incentive programs EUROPE USA CHINA > " " targets proposing a contribution of wind energy of 11-14% to European electrical consumption (~180GW) > Proposed target of 20% of electricity supplied by wind energy in 2030 > Ambitious targets fixed in the Wind Base Program, aiming for more than 100 GWs until 2020 > Strong willingness to promote domestic manufacturing of equipment > Energy production: Different schemes are operating, mainly feed-in-tariffs, fixed premiums, green certificates and tendering procedures > Project development: Depending on national and regional governments but basically tax incentives, soft loans, contribution programs and environmental taxes /carbon certificates (indirect benefit for wind energy) > Equipment manufacturing: No specific programs apart from national and regional schemes fostering industrial growth, typically based on job creation. R&D incentive programs on national and EU level. > Energy production: Different schemes on federal and state level, but basically based on a production-tax-credit (PTC). Possible introduction of a national renewable portfolio standard scheme > Project development: Investment-tax-credits and loan guarantees on a federal level and different schemes on state level (e.g. tax incentives, land acquisition, grants, loans...). Indirect support through specific incentives for investment on the transmission network and a proposed cap-and-trade scheme penalizing carbon emissions > Equipment manufacturing: Programs mostly on state level, typically based on job creation and including tax incentives, soft-loans and low costs for land and infrastructure. R&D funding programs. > Energy production: project specific fixed tariffs based on wind resources, transmission and production costs (only for non-concession projects) and a tariff premium pro MW > Project Development: tendering for national concession projects and low interest loans > Equipment manufacturing: Higher taxes for importing wind turbines and key components Specific incentives (cash subsidies pro MW) for the manufacturing of turbines for domestic brands (>51% chinese) National and regional specific subsidies, tax incentives and low interest loans for the establishment of new companies Source: GWEC, EWEA, Roland Berger 17

18 1 MARKET Each of the top markets require a different strategy and positioning approach Key success factors for WTMs in top markets USA CHINA > Partnering with > Partnering with local and European utilities/ipps leading capacity build-up > Build up own domestic capacity and supplier network Reduce logistic costs and currency risks EUROPA > Partner with major utilities, with a focus on offshore, repowering and markets in growth phase (e.g. France) > Reduction of wind turbine costs driven by industrialization and efficiency domestic manufacturers and suppliers Subsidies for manufacturing of turbines only for domestic brands (>51% chinese) > Build up local manufacturing capacity to supply the market Reduce costs, including high import taxes for wind turbine components Source: Roland Berger 18

19 1 MARKET Main challenge is to secure top line growth in the next years Focused and orchestrated market approach essential Overview market approach MARKET MAPPING & ANALYSIS CUSTOMER PORTRAIT & COMPETITOR PROFILES ACTIVATION STRATEGY > Identify and select growth markets to target > Collect information and build market profiles (structure, volumes, legislation, renewable programs ) > Identify and map customers and competitors > Collect customer & competitor intelligence, building-up an in-depth understanding of the target markets > Define targets > Identify levers and barriers to action > Establish market/client specific actions strategies and action plans Orchestrated market approach to: > Secure participation in the growth of key markets (USA, China, Europe) including government renewable investment programs > Establish global framework agreements and gain major contracts with key utilities 19

20 2 TECHNOLOGY Modularization and platform strategy can reap significant benefits in investment and variable costs Platform strategy/modularization Project example PROJECT RESULTS > Standardized torque area for gearboxes > Significant decrease in number of designs and parts > Fewer critical variants, more reliable modules > Increased flexibility for more focused product differentiation Unique designs Part numbers Investment [hours] Variable costs [EUR '000/unit] 6-67% % % 150 > Engineering > Manufacturing Production facilities Tools % 3.9 > Material cost > Manufacturing cost > Warranty & goodwill > Logistics Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Source: Roland Berger 20

21 2 TECHNOLOGY Complex technology trade-offs require holistic evaluations of performance, supply chain and life cycle costs requirements COMPLEX TECHNOLOGY TRADE-OFFS Performance > Design solutions > Yield/costs tradeoffs > Design for manufacturing > etc. Supply chain > Components and materials availability and capacity requirements > Supplier landscape > etc. Life cycle costs > Materials and components manufacturing costs > Assembly costs > Deployment costs > Operation and maintenance > etc. Additional regvired future focus Main focus today EXAMPLE CASE: COMPOSITES > Performance and technical challenges Development of design solutions using CFRP low weight and high stiffness, e.g. longer blades enabling more efficient energy harvesting Operating life constraints and environmental damage, e.g., lightning strike Design for manufacturing complex manufacturing processes and tolerances > Supply chain Suppliers landscape three companies, Toray, Tohotenax and Mitsubishi Rayon, account for >75% of the market Most of the capacity today focused on high margins industries as aerospace secondary players focus on wing (e.g. Zoltek) In 2015, material requirements for wind turbines would account for 25,000 tons, ~2,5 times the volume of material required for new aircraft programs 1) > Life cycle costs Material costs high costs of CFRP, ~350 USD/kg for aerospace highgrade materials. Lower-grade materials still far from 12 USD/kg target for wing industry Manufacturing costs expensive and complex processes Maintenance new methods and processes for inspection and repairs 1) Based on the assumption of 3% CFRP application for blades; aircraft programs A380, A350 and B787 21

22 2 TECHNOLOGY Many challenging technology trade-offs expected in the near future Increasing focus on reliability, costs and yield Overview key technical challenges - Focus on reliability, costs and yield BLADES AND ROTOR > Focus Larger sizes for more efficient energy harvesting Capability to sustain higher loads Quality (e.g. cracks, delamination, ) Costs for transport and handling Manufacturing costs Operational lifetime Low weight and high stiffness of structures > Challenges Introduction of new materials (e.g. CFRP) Manufacturing constraints Endurance to environmental damage (e.g. weather, lighting) TOWER AND FOUNDATION > Focus Lighter and leaner structures Material, handling and installation costs Installation and costs of foundations, specially offshore > Challenges New foundations design, construction techniques and materials, specially for Offshore Source: Roland Berger DRIVE TRAIN AND GENERATOR > Focus Reliability and efficiency (e.g. gearbox accounts for ~40% of wind turbine failures) Operational lifetime Service and maintenance Installation costs > Challenges Lighter and more compact housings (e.g. integration of drive train and generator) Simplification and new design solutions for drive trains (e.g. reduction of bearings and roller parts) Integration of new generator technologies (e.g. superconductor generators) GRID CONNECTION & INTEGRATION > Focus Adaptation to grid requirements (e.g. stability, voltage fluctuations) Integration costs (e.g. due to intermittency) > Challenges Industrial customization and modularization of wind turbines New integration technologies 22

23 3 SUPPLY CHAIN In the light of the current economic crisis it is key to assess and manage the risk along the supply chain A PRIORITIZATION B IDENTIFICATION OF RISKY C OF PRODUCTS AND SUPPLIERS SUPPLIERS SELECTION OF LEVERS & DEFINITION OF EMERGENCY PLANS Long-list of suppliers Short-list of risky suppliers Fact sheets, levers & emergency plans for risky suppliers 23

24 3 SUPPLY CHAIN Bottlenecks on lower-tier levels are characteristic for the dynamically growing wind turbine industry Context and challenges of bottlenecks on lower tier levels of the supply chain CONTEXT Symptoms > Increasingly quality problems of components (quantity over quality) > "Blame game" between different parties involved Bottlenecks in lower tiers of the supply chain Causes > Dynamically growing industry with CAGR > 20% > Lack of predictability of sales plan > Lack of commitment > Lack of communication regarding requirements and volumes (reactive rather than pro-active) CHALLENGES Key questions to be addressed in order to build a comprehensive supply chain capacity model to identify hidden bottlenecks are: > How to structure the supply chain? > How to get suitable data (availability and quality)? > How to challenge tier-1 suppliers (verify what tier-1 suppliers state about tier-2 suppliers)? OEM Tier-1 Tier-2 Main challenge for OEM Supply chain ramp-up (quantity and quality) in times of difficult prediction of own market share Traditionally only communication tier-by-tier Challenge for OEM to understand tier-2 suppliers Source: Roland Berger 24

25 3 SUPPLY CHAIN A Supply chain capacity model brings supply and demand together on each tier level allowing for flexible scenario analysis Illustration supply chain capacity model SUPPLY SUPPLY CHAIN CAPACITY MODEL DEMAND Bottom-up approach > In-depth desk research > Extensive interviews with internal/external partners > Prioritize components on all tier level 1st tier SUPPLY Supply DEMAND Demand Scenario dashboard Supply / demand > Conversion of inputs into one common unit (pieces, ship-sets, MW, etc.) > Allowing scenario analysis through dash-board in Excel Top-down approach > Based on market studies > Validated through desk research and interviews > Leverage own internal/ external expertise > Prioritize components on all tier levels 2nd tier DELIVERABLES 1st tier 3rd tier > Condensed representation using traffic-light logic 2nd tier > Stand-alone and aggregated view on total supply chain including "hit list" of bottlenecks 3rd tier Source: Roland Berger 25

26 4 OPERATIONS A major challenge is the further industrialization and build up of global operational excellence III BUILD UP GLOBAL OPERATIONS FOOTPRINT I MANAGE LIQUIDITY SHORT- AGES AND ADJUST CAPACITIES > Perform diligent liquidity analysis > Work on all levels to improve cash position: Working capital, investments, financial restructuring II FURTHER INDUSTRIALIZE OPERATIONS > Continue establishing solid and efficient industrial processes along the whole value chain for wind turbine assembly and components manufacturing > Elaborate comprehensive development scenarios and work on operational improvement levers across all of them > Build up footprint in target markets involving local suppliers global network of manufacturing clusters Source: Roland Berger 26

27 4 I OPERATIONS Short-term liquidity is ensured via three main levers: Working capital reduction, CAPEX reduction and financial restructuring Main levers to ensure liquidity WORKING CAPITAL REDUCTION CAPEX REDUCTION FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING 1 Inventory management 4 Overall reduction of capital expenditures 2 Modification of payment terms (with suppliers and clients) 5 Disposal of non-core assets 3 Factoring 6 Sale and lease back of own assets 7 Freeze of dividends 8 Equity cure 9 New money restructuring 10 Debt buyback 11 Covenant reset 12 Debt to equity swap 13 Debt to hybrid swap Source: Roland Berger 27

28 4 II OPERATIONS A robust industrialization of operations is key to face pressure on profit margins Key levers for a robust industrialization Product Development Factories Flow & Layout Organization Equipment Supply Chain > Design to life-cycle-costs > Design to Manufacture & Assembly > Modularization & complexity management > Integrated development teams > Standardization of components and manufacturing processes > Quality and testing programs > Requirements based development > Planning and scheduling > Internal industrial footprint and layouts > Storage and intralogistics > Balancing flow & production line design Pull flow > Batch size and bottleneck management > Leadtime reduction > Rework management > Production and flow monitoring > Management of performance indicators > Organization structure > Team management > Continuous improvement management > 5S implementation > Quality of manufacturing support services > Wage policy > Training and skills management > Flexibility of machines and tools > Efficiency of test benches > Machine & equipment output monitoring > Equipment reliability and maintenance > Work for higher OEEs > Tools spares management > Equipment capacity increase & new equipment introduction > Procurement planning & scheduling > Procurement management > Supply chain administration > Operational monitoring of supplier performance > Supplier structure > Lean logistics Focus product development on life-cycle-costs Implement excellent industrial processes Work for people effectiveness Optimize overall equipment availability & output Establish a robust and efficient supply chain Source: Roland Berger 28

29 4 III OPERATIONS The development of global operations footprint is a must to access key markets and keep costs low Overview development of global operations footprint KEY CHALLENGES TO BE ADDRESSED > Development on a global level of local clusters for the final assembly and components manufacturing in key markets > Development of own domestic infrastructure in target markets establishing solid production clusters partnering with local suppliers FAL Components Manufacturing > Secure access to market growth and government incentive programs by partnering and establishing framework agreements with key utilities and developers Source: Roland Berger 29