Application of Supply Chain Concepts to the Analysis Process

Transcription

1 Application of Supply Chain Concepts to the Analysis Process Rob Handfield, PhD Bank of America University Distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management Executive Director, Supply Chain Resource Cooperative Poole College of Management DO5 WRM Seminar September 9, 2015 Poulton Innovation Center Judith Johnston, PhD Adjunct Professor Laboratory for Analytic Science Steve Markham, PhD Professor of Innovation Management Director, The Entrepreneurship Collaborative Poole College of Management

2 Task Mission This task explores the applica1on of a supply chain view to the intelligence development process. The supplier- producer- consumer model of intelligence development is sugges1ve of a supply chain that specifies and implements a sequence of processes that produce and distribute a product. To capture the fidelity of models of intelligence analysis and provide the flexibility for looking at different aspects of the intelligence analysis process, the team will create a hybrid framework that supports supply chain analysis of simple and complex processes. MISSION: Develop a framework and comprehensive model of the intelligence analysis system, using a synergy of supply chain management principles combined with specified knowledge of the intelligence analysis process. 2

3 Team Members Rob Handfield, PhD Professor of Supply Chain Management, Dept of Business Mgmt Role and Responsibili1es: Team Leader organize mee1ngs, and drive research Steve Markham, PhD Professor of Management, Dept. of Management,, Innova1on & Entrepreneurship Role: SME, Business Process Management, Hypothesis Genera1on, Analy1cs, Innova1on Judith Johnston, PhD Adjunct Professor, LAS, NCSU Role: SME (intelligence analysis methods and produc1on processes, liaison with other IC agencies (beyond Ft. Meade), expert on intelligence culture.

4 Interviews & Research Conducted to Date Intelligence Community Interviews Conducted Organiza1on of Intelligence, Structured Analy1c Techniques (Pherson Associates), Office of the Director of Na1onal Intelligence, Interviews at CIA Headquarters with mul1ple SME s and analysts Laboratory for Analy1c Science (NC State) Research on data readiness, applica1on of supply chain models to the intelligence development process Insurance Industry Risk associated with supply chain disrup1on Verisk, Maplecro`, Zurich, Global Insurance providers So`ware Industry focused on crea1ng insight into supply chain risks Panjiva, SAP, Resilinc, others Organiza1ons interviewed Faced with predic1ng and managing supply chain risks Over a dozen organiza1ons from pharmaceu1cal, manufacturing, apparel, and energy industries. 4

5 Team ObjecHve 1 Ques%on 1: What are the high level (Level 1) and more specific (Level 2) value stream maps that depict the roles and ac%vi%es of the mul%ple internal analysts, government stakeholders and third party supply chain partners associated with the intelligence development process? Deliverable 1: A prototype value stream map with swim lanes, key par1es involved, roles and responsibili1es depicted in the stream, and feedback loops related to current processes in use. In effect, this process map will illustrate how the process works today, and will also include boelenecks, long lead- 1me processes, areas where the process is not well defined, etc Approach: Develop an ini1al prototype value stream map based on interviews with key LAS subject maeer experts (SMEs) and on- going revisions of this map based on addi1onal interviews. 5

6 IniHal ObservaHons (to Date) The best that can be said about the generic intelligence cycle is that it is a decent approxima1on but that there are so many short cuts in produc1on, that this depic1on is more of an idea than what the actual work is that gets done on a daily basis. There do not exist a good set of metrics for defining the analy1cal process. Most of the measures are post- hoc, and o`en the only reward is the hallway file that an analyst may build up over 1me. There is recogni1on that current analysis outputs are not always relevant, given the stream of informa1on available on the internet and television. There simply aren t a lot of secrets anymore. One execu1ve noted that our research should seek to help make analysis relevant. There is a lot of ac1vity around big data, but there has not emerged a coherent approach within the IC to incorporate these methods to capture and code the massive amount of data found on the internet Tradi1onal measures of intelligence products are limited by the idea of intelligence as a finished product, as opposed to a service. The breadth and role of key actors in the intelligence product development process are not well defined 6

7 Swim Lanes

8 CUSTOMER TASK PRESIDENT AGENCY POLICY MAKER TEAM CHIEF COLLECTION QUEUE IniHal Prototype - Project Report Development Process PROGRAM OF ANALYSIS (?) GLOBAL CRISIS TASK FORCE End PRESIDENT AGENCY TEAM CHIEF TEAM CHIEF Prioritize Work Schedule PDB? GO TO 2.0 ANALYSIS COORDINATE Review Edit Comment EDIT REVISE INTELL OFFICER COLLECTION QUEUE Prioritize Work Schedule REFINE QUESTION COLLECT DATA Info. Vetting Draft Initial Report Coordination REVISION REPORT REPORT DISTRIBUTION TAGGING FILING CHIEF OF STATION Recruiting Collecting Reporting THE WIRE Provide Input ANALYST SME s Related report Interes1ng fact Review Augment Comment READ DISTRIBUTE ALL SOURCE DATA OPEN SOURCE LIBRARY OF REPORTS (300M) Augment File in Library 8

9 Another View of the Process: Types of Data and Analysis

10 Simplified Dra` Mapping of Analysis s s Management (POAs, Ques1ons) Process & Analyze: (Tasks: Read, Think, Write Dra`) Collec1on (Many sources) Collaborate agencies Edit (Many levels) Produce and Disseminate 10

11 Customer Editor Opportunity Analysis Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs Direct 4 2 Analyze 3 Dissminate Edit Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Collector Agencies Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` 5 6 Collec1on Coordinate Review and Feedback

12 Customer Opportunity 1 - PMO Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 1. Program Management Office 3 Dissminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 2 Analyze Edit Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Coordinate Collector Agencies Collec1on Review and Feedback

13 Customer Analysis Overview Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Desseminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 2 Analyze Edit Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Coordinate Collector Agencies Collec1on Review and Feedback

14 Customer Opportunity 2 Project Coding and Classifica1on Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Dissminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 2. Project Coding System 2 Analyze Edit Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Coordinate Collector Agencies Collec1on Review and Feedback

15 Intelligence Customer Collector Agencies Editor KIQ POAs Project Type: 1) Mission, 2) NIPF issue, 3) Collec1on Que Assign Priori1es Define Task Ini1a1ves Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Collec1on

16 Customer Opportunity 3 Intelligence Staging Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Desseminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 3. Analysis and informa1on staging 2 Analyze Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Coordinate Edit Collector Agencies Collec1on Review and Feedback

17 Customer Opportunity 4 Capacity Planning Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Dissminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 4. Capacity and Alloca1on Planning 2 Analyze Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Coordinate Edit Collector Agencies Collec1on Review and Feedback

18 Analyze Customer KIQ POAs to Task Define Task Access SMEs Review Agreements Editor Begin Edi1ng Define Ques1ons Read/ Process raw Intelligence Formulate Insights Write Dra` Report Collector Specify Sources and Create Collec1on Queue LIBRARY OF REPORTS (300M) Agencies Coordinate

19 Customer Opportunity 5 More Efficient Collec1on Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Dissminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 2 Analyze Edit Collector 5. MBL to improve analysis process Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Collec1on Coordinate Agencies Review and Feedback

20 Figure 5 - Disseminate Customer KIQ Decision Making Edit Produce Disseminate Editor Edit Dra` Report Coordinate Collector Agencies Review and Feedback File in Library Distribu1on

21 Customer Opportunity 6 Human Intelligence Cura1on Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs 1 Direct 3 Dissminate Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Editor 2 Analyze Edit Collector Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` Collec1on Coordinate 6. Human Cura1on of Intelligence Collec1on Agencies Review and Feedback

22 Customer Editor SUMMARY - Opportunity Analysis Direct Analyze Disseminate KIQ POAs Direct 4 2 Analyze 3 Dissminate Edit Decision Making Produce and Disseminate Collector Agencies Process & Analyze: Task, Dra` 5 6 Collec1on Coordinate Review and Feedback

23 Path Forward for DO6 1. PMO - Methods by which improved coordina1on can result in improved foresight and aligned decision- making. 2. Methods for beeer cataloging and accessing informa1on, leading to more efficient processes 3. Iden1fy approaches for quicker response to emergency requests for intelligence 4. Improved capacity planning & u1liza1on of analyst 1me and resources 5. Pilot tool for improved MBL search capabili1es 6. COE to improve data feeds through human cura1on of search requests

24 Core Core Competencies for Intelligence s* 1. Engagement and CollaboraHon Sub- Competencies DefiniHon IC employees have a responsibility to share informa1on and knowledge to achieve results, and in that regard are expected to recognize, value, build, and leverage diverse collabora1ve networks of coworkers, peers, customers, stakeholders, and teams within an organiza1on and/or across the IC. Building Professional/Technical Networks; Influencing/Nego1a1ng; Interpersonal Skills; Informa1on Sharing 2. CriHcal Thinking IC employees are expected to use logic, analysis, synthesis, crea1vity, judgment, and systema1c approaches to gather, evaluate, and use mul1ple sources of informa1on to effec1vely inform decisions and outcomes. Sub- Competencies 3. Personal Leadership and Integrity Sub- Competencies Crea1ve Thinking; Exploring Alterna1ves; Enterprise Perspec1ve; Situa1onal Awareness; Synthesis IC employees are expected to demonstrate personal ini1a1ve and innova1on, as well as integrity, honesty, openness, and respect for diversity in their dealings with coworkers, peers, customers, stakeholders, teams, and collabora1ve networks across the IC. IC employees are also expected to demonstrate core organiza1onal and IC values, including selfless service, a commitment to excellence, and the courage and convic1on to express their professional views. Courage & Convic1on; Dedicated Service; Innova1on; Integrity/Honesty; Resilience; Respect for Diversity *for all non- supervisory personnel GS- 15 and below (ICD 610, 2008)

25 Core 4. Accountability for Results Sub- Competencies 5. Technical ExperHse Core Competencies for Intelligence s* Sub- Competencies DefiniHon IC employees are expected to take responsibility for their work, sesng and/ or mee1ng priori1es, and organizing and u1lizing 1me and resources efficiently and effec1vely to achieve the desired results, consistent with their organiza1on s goals and objec1ves. Adaptability; Con1nual Learning; Ini1a1ve; Resource Management; Rigor IC employees are expected to acquire and apply knowledge, subject maeer exper1se, tradecra`, and/or technical competency necessary to achieve results. Professional Tradecra`; Subject Maeer Exper1se 6. CommunicaHon IC employees are expected to effec1vely comprehend and convey informa1on with and from others in wri1ng, reading, listening, and verbal and non- verbal ac1on. Employees are also expected to use a variety of media in communica1ng and making presenta1ons appropriate to the audience. Sub- Competencies Mul1media Communica1on; Oral Communica1on; Wrieen Communica1on *for all non- supervisory personnel GS- 15 and below (ICD 610, 2008)