The need for consistent, consensual, globally-owned earthquake risk assessment. Rui Pinho Secretary General, GEM Foundation

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1 The need for consistent, consensual, globally-owned earthquake risk assessment Rui Pinho Secretary General, GEM Foundation

2 MAIN FEATURES An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development), aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map Global: cover also less developed/monitored areas (uniform standards) Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody Public-Private Partnership (non-profit Foundation): combining the strengths (and objectives) of both sectors

3 POTENTIAL USERS National, Regional and Local (city) Governments Engineers and building institutions Research institutions earthquake/civil engineering seismology economcis social sciences environmental /sustainability (human) geography - urban planning IT development studies individuals in earthquake prone areas Media online offline GEM NGOs and civil society organizations Disaster Management and Risk organisations / initiatives Private industry Insurance Banking Utilities, Energy Construction Leisure/tourism Consultancy IT and technology Food and Beverage Intergovernmental / other international organisations

4 PUBLIC PARTICIPANTS Have formally adhered already (with financial contribution): GERMANY ITALY SINGAPORE NORWAY SWITZERLAND BELGIUM Will hopefully adhere soon: USA TURKEY INDIA CHINA FRANCE JAPAN And then many others Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Nepal, Bangladesh, Portugal, Luxembourg,..

5 PRIVATE PARTICIPANTS Founders: 5 Mill. 3 Mill. 1 Mill. 1 Mill. 1.6 Mill. Other sponsors: 1 Mill. Further sponsorship being negotiated

6 ASSOCIATE PARTICIPANTS OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development WORLD BANK UN-ISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization IASPEI International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth s Interior IAEE International Association of Earthquake Engineering

7 EXPERT ELICITATION Global Meetings: engaging the community

8 GLOBAL INVOLVEMENT

9 GLOBAL COMPONENTS engaging the global scientific community interacting with regions

10 GLOBAL COMPONENTS 5 Hazard RfPs released in mid-may Global Historical Catalogue and Database - Global Instrumental Seismic Catalogue - Global Active Fault and Seismic Source Database - Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model - Global Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) 9 international consortia, involving tens of organisations worldwide, submitted proposals Proposals have been peer-reviewed (14 experts from four continents) Selection made at end of 2009, winning consortia are currently involved in technical and contract negotiations with Scientific Board and Secretariat, respectively.

11 GLOBAL COMPONENTS 5 Risk RfPs released in mid-jan GEM Ontology and Taxonomy - Global Earthquake Consequences Database - Global Exposure Database - Inventory Data Capture Tools - Global Vulnerability Estimation Methods Deadline for submission of proposals: 18 th March 2010 Selection expected early June 2010

12 GLOBAL COMPONENTS Two scoping Socio-Economic Impact workshops organised in collaboration with UNU-EHS, OECD, World Bank, IIASA, etc Working group with experts from academia, industry, World Bank, OECD, is now working on the drafting of a possible roadmap Roadmap draft will be subject of a public commentary process Refined strategy and RfPs to be developed in next couple of months. - Indicators for socio-economic vulnerability/impact - Modelling of 2nd-order indirect economic losses - Cost-benefit analyses

13 REGIONAL PROGRAMMES Cover whole regions and all countries in each region, e.g. Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, South-America, Middle East, etc Independently funded, bottom-up initiatives Approved by GEM Adopt GEM standards and computational infrastructure Contribute regional and national data to global models Contribute to build the GEM Global Components Capacity building

14 GEM PRODUCTS OpenGEM Web Portal Web frontend of the OpenGEM system, running on GEM s IT infrastructure, featuring a number of portlets to run applications and present results of hazard, risk and SEI Global databases and Spatial Data Infrastructure Hazard, risk and SEI global databases, rendered available through a spatial data infrastructure OpenGEM Software Package Standalone OpenGEM software package to be installed and run outside GEM s IT infrastructure Open source, object-oriented community development platforms OpenSHA, OpenSRA, OpenSIA, OpenGEM

15 GEM PRODUCTS Standards for seismic risk modelling and assessment Standards for model input/output Standard ontology and taxonomy Standard definitions Stand-alone Applications Development of standard input models User-defined hazard, risk and SEI assessment Apps that build upon output of GEM (e.g. cost-benefit analysis) Technical Reports Published on the GEM website

16 RESULTS VIEWER

17 RESULTS VIEWER

18 RESULTS VIEWER

19 RECAPPING NEEDS AND FEATURES It must be an independent, transparent/open and consistent standard/model to calculate earthquake risk It needs to be community-based and public-owned, in order to be consensual, accepted and actually used (inc. capacity building) It has to feature regional and global coverage, since earthquakes do not know political boundaries It should serve the needs of all possible users, from the general public to the decision makers, communicating risk in an effective manner