THE NORWEGIAN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET AUTUMN 27
SJØLYST ARKEN AKERSHUS EIENDOM IS HANDLING THE LEASING OF 18, M² FOR KLAVENESS. SJØLYST ARKEN
INDEX PAGE 1 INDEX Main points 3 Macro Economics 5 About Norway 5 The Norwegian Economy 6 Employment trends 8 New construction 9 The Oslo office market 11 The Oslo office market 11 Rent levels 12 Office demand update 15 Survey of tenants relocating 16 Vacancy 18 Developments 2 Recent market activity 22 Yield levels 23 Sales transactions 24 The IPD property value index 26 Regional property markets 28 Recent regional market activity 3 International office markets 32 The retail market 34 The hotel market 36 The logistics market 38 The residential market 4 Definitions/Web-links 43 Akershus Eiendom AS 44 This report is intended for general information and is based upon our own material which we believe to be reliable or material supplied to us. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we cannot offer any guarantee that factual errors may not have occurred. Akershus Eiendom takes no responsibility for any damages or loss incurred owing to the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report. This report was last edited on August 31, 27. For further information please contact Akershus Eiendom AS. Comments, suggestions or questions regarding the contents and presentation of this report are welcome at research@akershus-eiendom.no.
HENRIK IBSENS GATE 1 AKERSHUS EIENDOM IS HANDLING THE LEASING OF 17, M² FOR HÖEGH EIENDOM AS AND LARS WINDFELDT. HENRIK IBSENS GATE 1
MAIN POINTS PAGE 3 MAIN POINTS Long-term Norwegian interest rates grew rapidly during the first half of the year, but fell back somewhat during July and August. Inflation is still low. National unemployment is currently at a record low of between 2 and 3%. Immigration makes it likely that employment will grow with more than 2% for this year, after a record-high 3.1% growth in 26. Oslo office rents have experienced a strong first half of 27. The 5% annual growth in prime office rents is remarkable. Other segments have not grown with comparable speed, but are likely to grow faster for the coming year. Our fourth annual survey of trends for relocating office tenants shows that a relocating tenant requires on average 22% more space than what is currently being occupied. This is slightly lower than last year, and means that total demand of office space is likely to grow at a slower pace for the coming year. Average Oslo office vacancy today stands at just below 5%, down from 6.5% in January, and 9.5% in January 26. Large vacant space is now scarce, especially within the CBD or at the western side of the city. Vacancy is forecasted to be below 4% by the end of the year and stay low at least until the end of 29. New development of office buildings will stay low, and average about 1, m 2 a year for 27 and 28. For 29, more space could be brought to the market, but probably not more than 15, m 2. Low vacancy and rising office rents is also the case in Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger. Especially Trondheim and Stavanger see strong growth and record high rent levels. The other Nordic office markets are improving, but lagging the Oslo market with about a year. The hotel market is experiencing a strong growth in room rates for the first time in four years. Retail properties are being built at a record high rate, but the concentrated owner/developer structure in this segment means they are not common in the transaction market. Logistics properties see increased demand, rising rents and stronger interest from institutional investors. The growth in residential prices have slowed down during the first half of 27, and even gone down somewhat during the summer. This is generally blamed on the rising interest rates. Construction activity is still growing, even as the completion rate of new homes have stabilised since the end of 26. Note: This market report is intended to provide an overview of the Norwegian property market. The report highlights important trends and gives specific examples of transactions in the leasing and investment markets, important new property developments, etc. Akershus Eiendom may possess more detailed analysis and data on some topics than is presented in this report, and we would be happy to set up individual meetings to provide more detailed analysis and presentation of such material. Contact us at +47 22 41 48 or research@akershus-eiendom.no for more information.
AKERSELVA ATRIUM AKERSELVA ATRIUM SOLD BY NCC PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT. AKERSHUS EIENDOM HANDLED THE TRANSACTION.
MACRO ECONOMICS PAGE 5 ABOUT NORWAY 1 FACTS ABOUT NORWAY Key Economic Indicators Annual change (%) Level (26) 23 24 25 26 F 27 F 28 F 29 F 21 F Gross domestic product 2 151 67 1. 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 4. 2.2 2.6 GDP mainland Norway 1 563 243 1.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.7 3. Consumption in households etc. 836 285 2.8 5.6 3.3 4.4 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.8 General government consumption 418 23 1.7 1.5 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.6 3. Gross fixed investment 399 655.2 1.2 11.2 7.4 7.3 4.4 3.9 4.1 Exports 1 2 488 -.2 1.1.7 1.6 2.7 4.9 2. 2.6 Crude oil and natural gas -.6 -.5-5. -6.5-2.4 6.8 -.4 -.3 Traditional goods 2.9 3.4 5.2 5.9 6.7 3.9 4.4 5.7 Imports 69 675 1.4 8.8 8.6 8.2 6.8 4.4 5.2 5.2 Traditional goods 5.2 1.9 8.2 9.7 8.1 3.9 5.6 6. Prices CPI 2.5.4 1.6 2.3.7 2.5 1.7 1.8 CPI ATE 1.1.3 1..8 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 Housing Prices 1.6 1.1 7.9 12.9 14.1 7.2 3. 2.7 Employment Unemployment rate (% of work force) 6 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 Employed persons (percentage change) 2 389-1..5 1. 3.1 2.5 1.2 1.1 1. Participation rate (level) 73.8 73.6 73.8 74.3 75. 75.1 75.1 75.2 Public finance Current balance (bill. NOK) 195.9 221.6 3.8 359.2 311.3 315.6 293.6 291.2 Current balance (per cent of GDP) 12.3 12.7 15.5 16.7 14.2 13.7 12.4 11.8 Interest rates 1-year Government Bond rate(%) (January 1) 5.8 4.6 4. 4.2 4.4 Money market rate (level) 4.1 2. 2.2 3.1 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 General Facts Official name Population Monetary unit GDP per capita (25) The Kingdom of Norway 4.7 million Norwegian kroner, NOK NOK 457,82 ( 57,392, $ 78,647) System of government Population density Exchange rates Telephone prefix Constitutional monarchy 12 per km² / NOK =7.9768 +47 Mainland: 15 per km² $ / NOK = 5.821 Head of state Area Internet domain King Harald V 385,155 km².no Mainland: 323,758 km² Central Government Time zone Largest cities 1 inhabitants Coalition Government: (Labour party GMT + 1 hour City Area Socalist Left Party, Centre Party) (end October end March) Oslo 547 1 45 GMT + 2 hour Bergen 242 325 (end March end October) Stavanger 117 25 Prime Minister Trondheim 161 225 Jens Stoltenberg, Labour party Kristiansand 78 15 Source: SSB, As of August 13 27
PAGE 6 MACRO ECONOMICS THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY Macro At the time of writing (2th August), stories of credit woes and tumbling stock markets get the headlines on a daily basis. However, the underlying economic situation is still strong in Norway. As a result of high productivity growth and an ample labour supply, the growth capacity in the economy has been high. However, capacity utilisation has now reached a limit as a result of the strong activity growth. Norwegian mainland GDP has grown roughly 4.5% annually over the past three years, see figure 3, well above expected long-term growth (2.5 3.5%). Improved terms of trade, low interest rates, growth in government spending and in petroleum investments, as well as high international growth, have resulted in a tremendous income increase in the household and business sectors. Moreover, low interest rates have made consumers more inclined to spend and consume. However, as interest rates have increased considerably since 25, the consumption effect is now being reversed. Private consumption is now facing a declining growth the coming years, unless the increase in wages continues to offset the increasing interest rates. The year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) was.4% in July. Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products, the rate of increase in consumer prices (CPI ATE) was 1.4%. Twelve-month growth in gross domestic debt of non-financial enterprises was 2.9% at end-june, unchanged on May. The corresponding figure for the money supply was 26.1% in June, down from 29.6% at end-may. The Norwegian Krone has appreciated against the Euro and Dollar recently on the expectation of higher interest rates in Norway than in the Euro and Dollar zones. Currently, compared to the US dollar, the Norwegian Krone is as strong as it was in the early 9s. Since January 24, the OSEBX at Oslo Stock Exchange has increased by approximately 164%, as to a merely 4% increase in the FTSE1 at London Stock Exchange. Nonetheless, in the wake of the recent turbulence, more or less the entire upswing in 27 has vanished. 2 INTEREST RATES, 23 27 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Jan 23 Mar 23 May 23 Jul 23 Sep 23 Nov 23 Jan 24 Mar 24 May 24 Jul 24 Sep 24 Nov 24 Jan 25 Mar 25 May 25 Jul 25 Sep 25 Nov 25 Jan 26 Mar 26 May 26 Jul 26 Sep 26 Nov 26 Jan 27 Mar 27 May 27 Jul 27 NIBOR 3 months SWAP 1 years 1 year Gov. Bond Norges Bank, Sight deposit rate Source: Statistics Norway, Central Bank of Norway
MACRO ECONOMICS PAGE 7 3 MAINLAND NORWEGIAN GDP GROWTH 1998 21E CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 24 27 4 5% 3.% 2.5% 4% 2.% 1.5% 3% 1.%.5% 2%.% -.5% 1% -1.% -1.5% % -2.% 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27E 28E 29E 21E Jun 24 Sep 24 Dec 24 Mar 25 Jun 26 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 Sep 26 Dec 26 Mar 27 Jul 27 Actual GDP change Forecasted GDP change CPI CPI ATE (ex taxes and energy) Source: Statistics Norway Source: Statistics Norway 5 MAIN INDICES OSLO AND LONDON 24 27 (24=1) 6 CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 24 27 35 9.% 3 8.5% 25 8.% 2 15 7.5% 7.% 6.5% 1 6.% 5 5.5% 5.% Jan 24 Apr 24 Jul 24 Oct 24 Jan 25 Apr 25 Jul 25 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26 Jan 27 Apr 27 Jul 27 Jan 24 Apr 24 Jul 24 Oct 24 Jan 25 Apr 25 Jul 25 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26 Jan 27 Apr 27 Jul 27 Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) London Stock Exchange (FTSE) NOK/EUR NOK/USD Source: Oslo and London Stock Exchanges Source: Central Bank of Norway
PAGE 8 MACRO ECONOMICS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Status The employment growth forecast for the upcoming years show a strong increase, and the predictions for 27 is a 2.5% growth. Though not at the same pace as in 26 and 27, the preliminary predictions indicates a further employment growth of 1.2% in 28, 1.1% in 29 and 1.% in 21. In July, seasonally adjusted registered unemployment stood at 1.9% of the labour force, unchanged from the previous month. As measured by Statistics Norway s labour force survey (LFS), seasonally adjusted unemployment was 2.5% in May (three-month period April June). Employment increased by 19 persons in the previous three-month period (January March), while the labour force expanded by 15, persons in the same period. The total workforce increased with 42, people from the first quarter 26 to the first quarter of 27, which is equal to the population 7 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, NORWAY 2 5 2 4 6% 5% Total employment 1988-27 and forecast until 21. The graph shows employment growth, which was at its strongest during 26. Official SSB (Statistics Norway) long-term forecasts have been revised upwards lately. Total employed Norway, thousands Total employed, SSB forecast National employment change % Employment change %, SSB forecast Source: Statistics Norway Employees, thousands 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 9 1 8 1 7 1 6-3.1% -.9% -1.% -.3%.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.% 1.9% 1.7%.9%.6%.4%.4% -1.%.5% 1.% 3.1% 2.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.% 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 E 28 E 29 E 21 E 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Change, % 8 UNEMPLOYMENT, OSLO AND NATIONWIDE, 1996-27 6. % 5.5% 5.% Norwegian unemployment, while still low compared to other European nations, has gone to record low levels. However, recent report suggest that the unemployment share has leveled out during the summer. 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% Difference between Oslo and the country average Oslo (NAV) Country average (NAV) Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Agency (NAV) 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan Jul Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 2 Jul 2 Jan 3 Jul 3 Jan 4 Jul 4 Jan 5 Jul 5 Jan 6 Jun 6 Jan 7 Jun 7 Unemployment
MACRO ECONOMICS PAGE 9 growth in the age group 15 74 years, in the same period. Moreover the age group 67 74 years saw an employment boost, as the total workforce percentage went from 6.9% to 1.9%. This was primarily led by more part-time positions in addition to pensions. The construction industry witnessed the steepest growth in employment during the period, relatively speaking, with a 1.6% increase, while business-related services saw an increase of approximately 9.1%. Assumptions / Implications With the continuous fast-paced employment growth, many industries are experiencing a rough time. The ever-increasing competition for labour leads to wage levels rising rapidly, as it is harder to attract qualified personnel. Furthermore, there is the overall threat of not finding enough competent and skilled staff to fill all vacant positions necessary for a company s day-to-day operation. The construction industry alongside with the oil- and offshore companies are in particular affected by this. NEW CONSTRUCTION 9 NEW CONSTRUCTION. ALL OF NORWAY, 2 27 12 1 The graph shows the total construction activity in Norway for residential and non-residential use during the previous 12 months. New space permitted (m 2 ) Construction started (m 2 ) New space completed (m 2 ) Source: Statistics Norway Sum of all floor space, last 12 months 8 6 4 2 2Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 26Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 27Q1 The construction boom is continuing, and the volume of started projects during the last 12 months is now 4% higher than the volume in 23, and the growth has been stable up to 1Q 27. Completed volume has not shown the same kind of growth, but this indicator is typically lagging the former by 1 3 years and will keep growing for 27 and 28. The record-high activity has resulted in shortage of all kind of resources for construction work, and the building costs have increased. Statistics Norway reported that material costs have increased by 11.1 per cent during the last 12 months up to July, and the total construction costs for housing is up 7.8 per cent.
PAGE 1 MACRO ECONOMICS KJØRBO OFFICE PARK AKERSHUS EIENDOM HANDLED THE LEASING OF 26, M² FOR ENTRA EIENDOM. KJØRBO OFFICE PARK
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 11 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET 1 OSLO OFFICE STOCK Oslo office areas Oslo outer west Ullevål Nydalen Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Oslo outer east 5, m 2 Majorstua Inner city north Økern Alna-Ulven 25, m 2 Skøyen Inner city west CBD Inner city east Helsfyr-Bryn 5, m 2 Lysaker Ryen Fornebu xxxxxxxxx xxxxx Oslo outer south The map shows Oslo divided in 23 office areas with circles representing the stock of office in each area. The Oslo office building stock (not including the neighbouring municipalities Asker and Bærum except Lysaker) today stands at around 8.5 million m 2. Of this, roughly 3 million m 2 are situated within the city centre, from Solli Plass in the west to Bjørvika in the east, marked in the map as six areas/circles in the middle. Oslo generally has a great deal of urban sprawl, the built-up area covers a lot of land compared to its population size. Most of the office building stock is concentrated in densely built areas, and this is visible in the map. Office zones outside the Central Business District are generally found along the outer ring road from Lysaker through Nydalen and Helsfyr to Bryn. Single office buildings and smaller office areas exist outside and between these areas. The area between the CBD and the outer ring road (in the map, seen as the Inner city East, North and West) is mostly in use for residential, university and retail purposes. The west of Oslo contains high-end residential areas with low density. The north-eastern corner of Oslo is the core area in Norway for logistical purposes, with many distribution centres for retail and transportation businesses. Eastern and southern areas consist of residential areas with varying degrees of density.
PA GE 1 2 T H E OSLO OF F ICE MAR K ET RE NT L EVEL S 11 OSLO OFFICE RENTS, JUNE 27 General high standard Sinsen Nydalen Oslo outer west Oslo outer east Storo Kjelsås Ullevål Top standard and new space 3 2 4 3 2 2 5 1 7 2 1 1 5 1 9 1 2 1 6 1 1 3 Grefsen Alna-Ulven Økern Inner city north Majorstua Inner city west Helsfyr-Bryn CBD Skøyen Inner city east Lysaker Ryen Oslo outer south Fornebu The map shows office rent levels for units larger than 5 m2 in different parts of Oslo as of August 27. Source: Akershus Eiendom 12 YEAR-END RENT LEVELS Prime High std CBD Newer space CBD Good std CBD High std west fringe High std east fringe Older, ineffective space 1996 1 75 1 4 1 15 1 5 1 2 1 4 1997 1 9 1 6 1 35 1 25 1 45 1 25 55 1998 2 5 1 9 1 6 1 4 1 7 1 3 7 1999 2 5 1 9 1 8 1 5 1 7 1 4 7 2 2 7 2 1 8 1 55 1 75 1 4 7 21 2 8 2 1 2 1 1 7 1 75 1 45 8 22 2 1 1 8 1 9 1 65 1 45 1 25 6 23 1 95 1 5 1 75 1 3 1 3 1 2 5 24 1 95 1 55 1 7 1 25 1 3 1 1 5 25 2 1 1 7 1 89 1 3 1 4 1 15 6 26 27 1H 2 7 3 5 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 4 1 6 1 75 1 9 1 3 1 35 8 9 Source: Akershus Eiendom/Dagens Næringsliv The rental growth in the prime office segment of Oslo first half of 27 has been the strongest ever, with a growth of 5% over the last year. The rest of the CBD has not yet experienced strong growth as a whole. The highest rent levels outside the Prime area have been observed in the northern and western parts of the CBD, as noted in the list on page 12. Several lease transactions above the 2, NOK/m2 level have been signed. The other segments of the market are also finally seeing strong growth, with two segments exceeding 2% growth over the last year. Assumptions/implications The strong growth in the Prime segment is explained mainly by the low vacancy (at 2% for the last year) and the tenants willingness to pay higher rents to be able to stay in the area. As competition for staff is intense, location and quality of the office space is more important than ever. Vacancy will stay low for the coming year, and rents should keep rising. The difference between the Prime area and the rest of the city, especially the CBD, has never been higher as long as the current statistics have been recorded. We expect the difference to shrink during the coming two years. Table 14 shows our forecast for the different office areas.
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 13 13 OSLO OFFICE RENTS 1986-27 (NOMINAL NOK) 4 3 5 The figure shows rent levels based on signed contracts. 3 2 5 Prime High std CBD 2 Newer space CBD 1 5 Good std CBD High std west fringe 1 High std east fringe Older, ineffective space Source: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom NOK/m²/year 5 1986 H1 1987 H1 1988 H1 1989 H1 199 H1 1991 H1 1992 H1 1993 H1 1994 H1 1995 H1 1996 H1 1997 H1 1998 H1 1999 H1 2 H1 21 H1 22 H1 23 H1 24 H1 25 H1 26 H1 27 H1 14 RENT LEVEL FORECAST Area High standard rent level, June 27 Change since June 26 Rent forecast to june 28 Comment Prime + high standard CBD New buildings from CBD east to Skøyen Rest of CBD/ Downtown Oslo 3 5 +5% +25% Prime rent has exploded during the last year and exceeded all expectations. Our forecast is that further growth will be slower in the coming two years. This is mainly based on the announced refurbishment of more than 6, m 2 of prime office space. 2 1 +15% +15% Rental growth potential is limited in the short term, as several developers have large land plots for new development ready, and will compete for the tenants. They also face competition from refurbishment of older buildings. 2 2 +15% +3% Rents have started to rise faster, as alternatives both in the Prime area and at Skøyen are scarce. Readily available space of more than 5, m 2 is now scarce and will remain so for several years. Skøyen 2 +25% +15% Rents rose quickly during the last year, and Skøyen is considered by many tenants to be as good as the CBD. There will, however, be up to 4, m 2 of office space vacated or constructed during the coming two years, which could limit further rental growth. Nydalen 1 6 +15% +25% Nydalen is the highest-priced area in north/east Oslo, and should benefit from a high proportion of good-quality buildings. It should be noted that the growth indicated is from a relatively low level. Lysaker / Fornebu 1 9 +2% +2% Low vacancy and high activity in the industries with strong presence in these areas have created higher rental growth than expected. This should continue, as supply of new space is low. Helsfyr/Bryn 1 5 +1% +2% Rents should rise faster from the start of 28, as vacancy comes down to levels below 5%. Other areas 1 1 +5% +2% Rents have so far not changed much, but general high vacancy will create higher demand for space in other areas of the city.
PAGE 14 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET The three graphs in figure 15 17 show the vacancy and the high standard rent levels for three chosen geographical segments: the Prime area, the western office areas (Skøyen, Lysaker and Fornebu) and the eastern office areas (Nydalen, Økern/Alna and Helsfyr/Bryn) for the period 24 27. The connections are visible: office rents do not start to grow before vacancy goes below 5 1%. When vacancy goes below 5%, strong rental growth can be expected. The eastern side has not yet reached these levels, but this is likely to happen soon as vacancy is falling rapidly in the market as a whole (see also pages 18 19). 15 PRIME AREA: VACANCY VS. RENT CHANGE Rent level, high standard, right axis Vacancy, left axis Source: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom 16 WESTERN AREAS: VACANCY VS. RENT CHANGE 17 EASTERN AREAS: VACANCY VS. RENT CHANGE 2.% 3 2 2.% 2 4 17.5% 2 8 17.5% 2 1 15.% 2 4 15.% 1 8 12.5% 2 12.5% 1 5 1.% 1 6 1.% 1 2 7.5% 1 2 7.5% 9 5.% 8 5.% 6 Vacancy 2.5%.% 4 Rent level Vacancy 2.5%.% 3 24-1H 24-2H 25-1H 25-2H 26-1H 26-2H 27-1H 24-1H Rent level 24-2H 25-1H 25-2H 26-1H 26-2H Vacancy 27-1H 2.% 17.5% 15.% 12.5% 1.% 7.5% 5.% 2.5%.% 24-1H 24-2H 25-1H 25-2H 26-1H 26-2H 27-1H 4 3 5 3 2 5 2 1 5 1 5 Rent level Rent level, high standard, right axis Vacancy, left axis Rent level, high standard, right axis Vacancy, left axis Source: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom Source: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 15 OFFICE DEMAND UPDATE TOTAL DEMAND FOR OSLO OFFICE SPACE Total demand for office space depends on three factors as the figure indicates. Development of these factors influences the total demand in different directions. 1 EMPLOYEES OFFICE RELATED PER ACTIVITY= BUSINESS ACTIVITY E 2 THE INVERSE OF E 3 WORKER EFFICIENCY The economic growth is still strong, and the optimism in the market has not deteriorated. As Norwegian unemployment is essentially zero, companies are attempting to attract the most qualified staff from competing companies by sign-on fees and finder s fees for finding new employees. Most industries see increased hiring on all levels. In august, FAST Search & Transfer, the IT company, announced its plans to lay off 148 workers, but this is seen as an isolated incident. The growing number of immigrants is currently the main source of people to sustain the near-future employment growth. In the first quarter 27 Norway saw a net immigration increase of 7,5, up 42% from last year. Oslo received 23% of all immigrants coming to Norway in the first quarter of 27. Besides, the urbanization trend resulted in Oslo witnessing a net increase in domestic migration close to 19%, according to 27 Q1 numbers. Altogether, Oslo s share of Norway s total net immigration in Q1 27 was more than 28.7%. Since the early 199s, the productivity growth has been high and relatively stable. The GDP growth the last three years have been well above trend, which has led to strong growth for many companies for the last couple of years. However, many have been reluctant to hire new employees until they were certain the boom would last. Moreover, others again have underestimated the escalating work demands and have been behind on the recruitment process. These factors have put a strain on the companies employees, but efficiency has been brought to high levels. As the pool of applicants in the general population shrinks, it is likely that less competent workers are hired and productivity per employee will fall. We have also observed that companies invest a lot of time and money in retaining or finding new employees, which is another indication that the boom times place some stress on efficiency. We therefore change our indicator arrow to point upwards, which means more employees are needed to perform any given volume of business activity. OFFICE SPACE PER EMPLOYEE= THE INVERSE OF SPACE EFFICIENCY E Our observation is that most office users have settled into a pattern of relatively little space per employee, which is still relatively generous compared to other European cities. Some companies afford themselves larger space, especially for social zones and meeting rooms, but so far this is not a major trend among large users. In times of strong economic growth, users tend to run out of space and not be able to get added space in time. Thus, employees are crowded together for a period of time until the extra space is acquired. Another effect is that most users on the move will order extra space for future growth. This means that individual companies use of space per individual goes up and down, and there is often no clear trend in the market as a whole. When the growth slows down, the trend will move towards larger space per employee as the growth plans turn out to be too ambitious; we are, however, not yet at this point in the business cycle.
PAGE 16 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET SURVEY OF TENANTS RELOCATING Survey introduction and details Akershus Eiendom has executed its fourth annual survey of companies or government/city agencies currently relocating. The respondents have either signed a new lease contract during the last year, or are in the process of finding new offices. This survey is designed to map the demand side of the office market, and offer conclusions about current trends in the market. The survey offers a forecast about actual new absorption in the coming 6 18 months, as very few of these tenants have moved into their new space yet. In 27, 33 tenants surveyed are in the process of acquiring 159, m 2 of mainly office space in Oslo. We have only surveyed tenants with a requirement for more than 1, m 2. The survey should cover about 3 4% of the market for office space of this size and above. space than the larger tenants. This is a reversed trend compared to last year s results. In Figure 19, most of the specific responses are plotted to show individual office space changes. The x-axis shows current office space and the y-axis shows future office size, and the triangle dots represent the companies surveyed in 27. Thus, the shrinking tenants end up below the 45 line and the growing companies are above. The other dots represent single office users moving in 24, 25 and 26, and as we can see from the graph; the 27 survey shows results not very different from those of last year, as they show only individual results below 5, m 2. Figure 2 through 22 show summaries of individual answers, i.e. not weighted by size. The results for previous years are shown for comparison. Figure 22 contains the summary of the tenants plans for employee density within the new space. It is still a high priority to use office space more efficiently. However, we see that more than 54% of the tenants want to keep their space per employee ratio. We interpret this to mean that many have reached their maximum level of effectiveness but are in need of new offices due to general growth. Overall, the survey results show that the future growth in demand is likely to be slightly lower than this year s, but the growth is still at a high level. The results from the survey s four years of existence show that the changes in the New Tenant Demand Index is in line with general employment growth in Norway for the years 24 to 27. Assumptions/Implications Figure 18 shows the Tenant New Demand Index, which is the total relative change in office demand for this sample of companies, from the old location to the new. This year, relocating tenants on average need 22% more space, compared to 27% in 26, 1% in 25, and only 3.5% from our survey in 24. The smaller tenants in the survey (moving from space less than 5, m 2 ) on average need more new space as a share of their old Figure 2 shows the shares of respondents moving into smaller, bigger, or equal size office space. There is a strong trend towards larger space, which is unsurprising given the almost universal hiring trend seen in figure 21. Only 6% of this year s respondents plan to move to a smaller space. In Figure 21 we have surveyed whether or not the tenants are currently recruiting or laying off employees. The graph expresses the continuous trend of recruitment. Survey limitations There are quite a few demand drivers that are not fully covered by this survey. Some of the uncovered areas are on the negative side. We do not catch all results from mergers, and we do not map how some tenants sublease parts of their offices instead of moving. However, we also exclude the smallest tenants, which often display stronger movements than larger tenants in relative terms.
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 17 18 SUM OF ALL TENANTS MOVING: CHANGE IN DEMAND FOR SPACE, COMPARED TO OLD LOCATION 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Tenants in survey of 24 Tenants in survey of 25 Tenants in survey of 26 Tenants in survey of 27 Source: Akershus Eiendom 19 INDIVIDUAL SIZE OF PRESENT LOCATION VERSUS NEW LOCATION 2 MOVING TO BIGGER OR SMALLER SPACE? New location 5 4 8% 7% 6% 3 5% 4% 2 3% 2% 1 1% Present location 1 2 3 4 5 % Larger office space Same amount of space Less office space Single tenant moving, 24 Single tenant moving, 26 Single tenant moving, 25 Single tenant moving, 27 24 25 26 27 Source: Akershus Eiendom Source: Akershus Eiendom 21 INCREASING OR REDUCING STAFF? 22 CHANGE IN SPACE PER EMPLOYEE 1% 7% 9% 8% 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % Reducing staff No change Increasing staff % Less space per employee No change More space per employee 24 25 26 27 24 25 26 27 Source: Akershus Eiendom Source: Akershus Eiendom
PAGE 18 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET VACANCY 23 OSLO OFFICE VACANCY, JULY 27 Oslo outer west Ullevål Nydalen Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Oslo outer east 1 15% 5 1% Majorstua Inner city north Økern Alna-Ulven < 5% Skøyen Inner city west CBD Inner city east Helsfyr-Bryn Lysaker Ryen Fornebu Source: Akershus Eiendom Oslo outer south This map shows vacancy in the various office areas of Oslo as of June 27. Oslo office vacancy has continued its declining trend, at a faster pace than last year. As of July, total vacancy stands at 5.%. It is the lowest level since 2 and in line with the forecast from our previous report, which predicted year-end vacancy at 3.5%. The areas with the lowest vacancy, notably the Prime parts of the CBD and the Lysaker and Skøyen areas on the western side, were already at low levels at the start of the year; therefore, the rest of the CBD and the eastern side have seen solid reductions in vacancy levels. Only three areas are now above 1% vacancy, and the expectations for higher rents have taken hold for owners everywhere. The vacancy will continue downwards for the coming year at a sharp pace in the areas where it is still above 7 8%. This means vacancy should be fairly uniform across the city by the end of the year, and rent levels for the formerly high-vacancy areas from Nydalen to Helsfyr Bryn should climb faster. High costs for construction and refurbishments will influence the choices of the landlords in times of low vacancy; costs could be pushed onto the tenants or avoided, at least until rents go higher. Low-quality space which would stay vacant in previous years should be easier let. Our vacancy forecast in figure 24 is based on supply and demand information and assumptions, and suggests a two-to-three-year period with vacancy below 4%. The graph reflects the weak supply of new space for the coming three years; if office rents continue their trend, a higher volume is likely for 21 and beyond. A moderately slower economic development, as might be feared after this summer s turmoil in the stock markets, will not change this forecast significantly. This is due to the already limited long-term employment forecasts (1% a year for 28 21), and the fact that the main difference compared to the 199s is the long period of low supply of new space. If employment growth becomes stronger than the SSB(Statistics Norway) forecast, vacancy could go as low as 2%, with a strong impact on rents.
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 19 24 OSLO OFFICE VACANCY, 22-211E 1 9 11% 11% The columns show how vacancy changes due to new construction and new demand. The forecasts for new demand and supply are based on knowledge about specific office developments and the official estimates for employment growth. 8 7 6 5 7% 9.5% 6.5% 4.5% Actual Forecast Vacancy level by the start of the year Change in demand of office space (absorbed space) Net new office space added to the market Source: Akershus Eiendom, various developers m 2 office space 4 3 2 1 3.5% 22 23 24 25 26 3% 3.5% 27E 28E 29E 3.5% 21E 211E VULKAN, MARIDALSVEIEN 17 VULKAN, MARIDALSVEIEN 17 AKERSHUS EIENDOM IS HANDLING THE LEASING OF 15, M² FOR VULKAN EIENDOM AS.
PAGE 2 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 25 OSLO OFFICE DEVELOPMENT MAP, AUTUMN 27 kollen Årvoll Linnerud Office buildings completed in 27 oksen Røa Ris Ring 3 V.Aker Oslo Ring 2 Sinsen Økern Alna Office buildings to be completed in 28 Office buildings to be completed in 29 1 Smestad Majorstua Tøyen Ø.Aker Land plot available for office development Ullern Skøyen Frogner Det kgl.slott Oslo S Bryn Opp = 1, m 2 Akershus slott Manglerud Lysaker Bygdøy Ekeberg Ryen = 5, m 2 Fornebu Øs Sjursøya Bekkelaget = 1, m 2 Lambertseter Source: Akershus Eiendom Status Office projects are scarce compared to the 9s, and annual completed volumes have been at low levels since 21. Construction of homes, hotels, shopping centres and public buildings, along with infrastructure projects, are at record high levels, as illustrated by other chapters in this report. High margins in other sectors combined with rising construction costs contribute to lack of new projects. The Oslo office market has a lot of available land plots for new office development. This is likely to represent a longer-term cap on the rent levels, but this is not an issue at the moment, where several areas have rent levels too low for developers to consider starting speculative construction. Since our previous report, few new development projects have been reported to become available for users in 28 or 29. Assumptions/implications The total forecasted volume for the coming two years has not increased by much, and we expect close to 15, m 2 of new buildings for 28 and a similar volume for 29. This is reflected in the graph on page 19.
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 21 26 OSLO OFFICE CONSTRUCTION 21-27 Annualized 4 quarter moving average Office construction in Oslo has continued downwards since 23. Recently, however, the volume of new permitted space has seen visible growth. 35 3 25 2 15 Completed Greater Oslo Started Greater Oslo Permitted Greater Oslo Source: Statistics Norway m² per year 1 5 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 26Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 27Q1 A rising number of B/C-quality buildings in the CBD will be refurbished either speculatively or for new users. We currently see a re-shuffling of smaller or price-sensitive tenants out of such buildings and into smaller vacant space or out of the CBD. Examples are Haakon VII s gate 5, Cort Adelers gate 3, and Henrik Ibsens gate 1, all within the west CBD/Prime area and comprising a total of 4, m 2. Rising rents will make more developers focus on office construction, but rents are still low in many of the areas where land plots are ready for office development. Speculative construction is, however, happening in CBD locations and western parts of the city, where vacancy has been low for at least a year. Further projects available from 21 will probably be announced during the fall. We expect more projects to come online at Fornebu, Lysaker, the eastern CBD, and Nydalen. The Helsfyr/Bryn areas still have rents too low to expect substantial speculative construction, but new projects built for tenants are likely to appear.
PAGE 22 THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET RECENT MARKET ACTIVITY 27 OSLO OFFICE LEASING Property/location Tenant Owner Floor space, m 2 Rent, NOK/m 2 Area Lease duration Haakon VII s gt 6 Arctic Securities City Finansiering / Kim Erla 1 6 4 2 Prime Dronning Mauds gt 1 Brækhus Dege Vestre Vika DA 2 2 7 Prime 1 years Henrik Ibsens gt 1 Western Bulk Høegh Eiendom and Lars Windfeldt 1 3 5 CBD west 1 years Grev Wedels plass 9 Christiania Securities Forward deal 9 2 75 CBD East 1 years Kirkegata 15 ROM eiendom Kirkegaten 15 DA 3 5 1 865 CBD East 1 years Apotekergata 8 Fagforbundet Oslo Entra Eiendom AS 2 3 1 6 CBD North 5 years Akersgata 51 Schibsted Entra Eiendom AS 1 7 1 9 CBD North 5 years Akersgata 51 Vinmonopolet Entra Eiendom AS 4 87 2 25 CBD North 1 years St. Olavs gate 23 Universitetet i Oslo Oslo Næringseiendom 2 8 1 775 CDB North 5 years Fridtjov Nansens vei 17 19 Oslo Politikammer Furuholmeninvest 2 3 1 915 Majorstuen 1 years Hoffsveien 7 Aker Yards Linstow ASA 1 1 2 5 Skøyen 3,5 years Kjørbo, Sandvika Asplan Viak Entra Eiendom AS 2 5 1 7 Outer West 5 years Kjørbo, Sandvika Technip Norge AS Entra Eiendom AS 7 3 1 65 Outer West 7 years Helsfyr Atrium, Strømsveien 22 AF Gruppen Sektor Helsfyr Atrium AS 14 1 75 Helsfyr 1 years Fredrik Selmers vei 2 Skosenteret Nordea Liv Norge AS 4 1 35 Helsfyr 8 years 28 SALES Property/location Floor space m² Price (MNOK) Rent (NOK/m²) Net initial yield Seller Buyer Haakon VII s gate 6 6 665 39 2 326 3.75% Storebrand Kim Erla Fridtof Nansens plass 5 4 682 265 1 815 3.5% Fridtof Nansens plass 5 DA Oslo Høyre Nesbruveien 73-75 15 9 11 535 8.% Trygve Brudevold Gullik Hansen/Kjell Madland Arnstein Arnebergs vei 12 4 5 177 2 489 5.75% Neas Pareto Kabelgaten 4 15 359 212 1 8 6.29% Økern Park ANS Storebrand Apotekergata 1 6 64 334 2 636 5.24% Schibsted Eiendom As API Fond I Parts of Aker Brygge 31 736 1 74 2 596 4.45% DnB NOR ASA Norwegian Property ASA Akerselva Atrium 17 587 5.2% NCC Vital Forsikring AS KLP - building Bjørvika 25 12 N/A N/A Oslo S Utvikling KLP Eiendom Portfolio of 4 office buildings 69 881 1 149 1183 6.7% Oslo Areal ASA Nordisk Areal 29 NEW OFFICE PROJECTS 27 21 Property/building Floor space m 2 Area Completion Developer Bjørvika Barcode PwC building 15 CBD East 27 Oslo S Utvikling Tjuvholmen Allé 2 3 CBD Prime 27 Tjuvholmen KS/Selvaag Drammensveien 154 7 5 Skøyen 27 Fram Management Drammensveien 155 12 Skøyen 28 Stor-Oslo Prosjekt Aker Hus (New HQ for Aker Kværner) 35 Fornebu 28 Aker ASA Lysaker Torg 45 16 5 Lysaker 28 NCC Property Dvl. Schweigaards gate 45 25 CBD East 28 ROM Eiendom Tjuvholmen Allé 1 12 CBD Prime 28 Tjuvholmen KS/Selvaag Sogn Arena, Klaus Torgårds vei 3 12 Ullevål 28 Bertel O. Steen eiendom Karenslyst Allé 54 58 12 Skøyen 29 ICA Eiendom Bjørvika Barcode KLP building 25 CBD East 29 Oslo S Utvikling Akerselva Atrium 15 CBD Northeast 29 NCC Property Dvl. Martin Linges vei 15 (IT Fornebu) 25 Fornebu 29 IT Fornebu Eiendom Helsfyr Atrium, Strømsveien 122 33 Helsfyr 21 Sektor Eiendomsutvikling
THE OSLO OFFICE MARKET PAGE 23 YIELD LEVELS 3 INTEREST RATES AND TRANSACTION YIELDS 22-27 The curve indicates the 1-year government bond rate. The numbered triangles represent time and sales yield for large Oslo office transactions since december 22. Note the recent transactions with negative yield gaps. Transactions SWAP 1 years 1 year Gov. Bond Source: Akershus Eiendom Guest night % change 7.5% 7.% 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 1 3 2 5 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 15 17 14 16 18 21 22 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 Jun 23 Aug 23 Oct 23 Dec 23 Feb 24 Apr 24 Jun 24 Aug 24 Oct 24 Dec 24 Feb 25 Apr 25 Jun 25 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Aug 26 Oct 26 Dec 26 Feb 27 Apr 27 Jun 27 Aug 27 19 2 23 The low yield deals continued into 27 with a few deals in the CBD area below 4% and several deals below 5%. The low yields seen in these transactions are driven by the high expectations for future rent increases, as opposed to the lowyield deals seen two to five years ago where falling interest rates were the main driver. As interest rates have increased throughout the first half of 27, we have not seen sales of longlease properties, which hold the yield records for the years 23 to 25. The significant decrease in levels for sales yields, even though the 1-year swap rates increased by 79 basis points from January 1 to June 3, is therefore the result of a change in what kind of properties are sold, as well as a shift in investors acceptance of low return on equity. 31 TRANSACTIONS 22 27 No. Property Yield Price MNOK Point of sale 1 Dronning Mauds gate 1-3 7.2% 44 December 22 2 Gullhaugveien 1-3 7.1% 163 July 23 3 Forskningsparken 6.7% 5 September 23 4 PST-bldg. Nydalen 6.45% 312 November 23 5 Lørenveien 68 6.8% 177 December 23 6 Sommerrogata 1 6.5% 3 June 24 7 Drammensveien 6 5.9% 37 November 24 8 C.J.Hambros plass 1 5.6% 1 7 December 24 9 Brynsalleen 6 5.27% 453 February 25 1 Drammensveien 134 5.9% ~6 May 25 11 Forskningsparken 5.48% 656 June 25 12 PwC bldg. Bjørvika 5.25% 57 December 25 13 Visma bldg. Bjørvika 5.25% 92 February 26 14 Haakon VII s gate 1 3.79% 82 April 26 15 Aker Hus, Fornebu 5.% ~1 5 October 26 16 Haakon VII s gate 5 3.7% 5 October 26 17 Drammensveien 144 4.9% 367 October 26 18 Haakon VII s gate 2 3.72% 625 December 26 19 Haakon VII s gate 6 3.75% 39 February 27 2 Fridtjof Nansens plass 5 3.5% 265 March 27 21 Apotekergata 1 5.2% 334 March 27 22 Akerselva Atrium 5.2% 587 June 27 23 Parts of Aker Brygge 4.65% 1 74 July 27 As running rent levels are catching up with market rents, net initial yields could increase, and whether property values will increase in the second half of the year is still in the balance.
PAGE 24 SALES TRANSACTIONS SALES TRANSACTIONS Investment activity continued at a high level in the first half 27, even though it did not reach 26 levels. We have registered transactions with a total value of 2.5 bnok in the first 6 months, down from 3.5 bnok the first 6 months last year. The creation of the company Norwegian Property ASA last spring is the main explanation of the high levels last year. As illustrated in figure 34, investment activity for office properties in Oslo was the lowest since the autumn of 24. Even though the activity declined, offices gained territory against the other sectors, and is back to 2/3 of the total investment volume as it has been the last 5 years except in 26. Also, the other property sectors saw reduced activity, with the interest-sensitive logistics sector hit by the increased cost of debt, whereas the lower activity in the retail sector could be explained by the rapid retail sales growth, driving up pricing expectations to higher levels than anticipated by less informed outside investors and their lenders. Listed property companies and property funds are the most active buyer groups in the first half of the year. The life insurance companies are entering the market again and winning several deals after several years of low activity. Foreign investors have become notably more active throughout the year, and are expected to be active on several deals at the start of second half of the year. In particular, London-based European funds and German funds are more active. Several larger office buildings in Oslo changed hands, including DnB NOR s headquarters at Aker Brygge; a new building to be constructed for KLP in Bjørvika; Norway Post s dis- 32 TRANSACTION VOLUME OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES 6 5 Only deals larger than NOK 5 million are included in the graph. 4 3 Hotels 2 Retail properties Logistics/industrial properties 1 Office buildings Source: Akershus Eiendom Mill NOK 22 23 24 25 26 27 YTD 33 SELLERS AND BUYERS BY SEGMENT AND VOLUME 21 27 7 6 Sellers (deals > 5 MNOK) 7 6 Buyers (deals > 5 MNOK) Listed Property companies 5 5 Unknown Foreign Investors 4 4 Property Funds Others 3 3 Shipping/Private investors Insurance companies 2 2 Closed ended funds Industrial/Retail companies 1 1 Unlisted Property Companies Source: Akershus Eiendom MNOK 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
SALES TRANSACTIONS PAGE 25 34 TRANSACTION VOLUMES PER PROPERTY SEGMENT 18 16 (deals > 5 MNOK) Transactions for all segments are lower than the previous three quarters. 14 12 1 8 Hotel Logistics Retail Office 6 4 2 Source: Akershus Eiendom 22-1 22-2 23-1 23-2 24-1 24-2 25-1 25-2 26-1 26-2 27-1 35 BUYERS BY SEGMENT, 26 27 26 27 (deals > 5 MNOK) 7 % 5 % Foreign investors Property funds Public sector/others 25 % 32 % 27 % 34 % Shipping/Private investors Insurance companies Closed ended funds Industrial/Retail companies Unlisted property companies Listed property companies 5 % 6 % 17 % 7 % 1 % 6 % 12 % 7 % 7 % 2 % Source: Akershus Eiendom tribution centre at Biskop Gunnerius gate 14B Lavblokka, Akerselva Atrium (Chr. Krohgs gate 16) and Haakon VII s gate 6. The activity in the market is high and we see all kinds of deals, and the trend is that investors are willing to take more and more market risk. In the first half of 27, there has been increased interest in development projects, and several of the largest transactions involved projects, including the acquisition by the newly initiated development company Scandinavian Property Development (SPD) of a large land plot at the old airport at Fornebu, on the Western fringe of Oslo. The plot is planned for 4, m 2 floor space for residential use and 1, m 2 for commercial use. Another new development company set up by Pareto Private Equity has acquired 28, m 2 of mainly residential projects in Tønsberg and Lørenskog. Other major transactions were the acquisition of 134, m 2 development property outside of Stavanger also by SPD, and the the Arcus production facility at Økern, by a JV of Höegh and Bunde. The trend with forward deals continues, the largest in 1H 27 were Akerselva Atrium and the KLP building in Bjørvika. Both buildings were acquired by life insurance companies. These properties are mostly leased and the rest of the leasing risk is limited by a vendor guarantee. Low-yield deals continued to happen, with the most prominent examples being the under-rented Haakon VII s gate 6 at 3.75%, and the DnB NOR HQ at Aker Brygge at 4.45%. In mid-august the news broke on Norwegian Property ASA voluntary offer on Norgani Hotels. If the offer is successful, the company will become the largest property company in the Nordic region. PlainVanilla financial deals with long term leases with AAA tenants on e.g. office or logistics buildings in remote locations have been limited this year. In areas with limited rent increase potential, these kinds of properties might have declined in value.
PAGE 26 SALES TRANSACTIONS THE IPD PROPERTY VALUE INDEX International Property Databank (IPD) has measured the performance of Norwegian property portfolios since 2. The IPD Norwegian property index 26 captures the performance of 497 properties with a capital value of 89 bnok. IPD estimates that this represents 44% of market value of the holdings of institutional investors and property companies. IPD Indices measure ungeared total returns to direct property investments held from one open market valuation to the next, and are calculated on a time-weighted basis in full compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). 36 RETURN OF INVESTMENT: PERFORMANCE BY SECTOR 25 Ungeared property investments averaged a return on investment of between 16 and 19% for all segments in 26. 2 15 1 All Norwegian commercial property Other commercial Office Retail Source: IPD Total return % p.a. 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 37 RETURN OF INVESTMENT: PERFORMANCE BY OFFICE AREAS 25 Oslo CBD outperformed the other office areas with total returns of 22.6 % in 26. 2 15 Rest of Norway 1 Other main cities Oslo east and south Oslo west and north Oslo centre Oslo CBD Source: IPD Total return % p.a. 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26
SALES TRANSACTIONS PAGE 27 38 RETURN ON INVESTMENT PER YEAR Total return Income return Capital growth Annualized total return Total return index 1 year 1 year 1 year 3 years 5 years 7 years 1999 = 1 For direct property, by source All Property 17.6 6.7 1.2 14.4 11.5 11.6 215.2 Retail 16.4 6.7 9.1 15.6 14.6 13.8 247.5 Office 18.2 6.7 1.8 13.8 1.4 1.7 23.4 Other Commercial 17.6 6.8 1.1 14.3 11.5 12.7 231 For other asset classes Equities 32.4 37.1 21.4 12.8 232.1 Bonds 2.2 3. 5.5 5.7 114.4 Inflation rate HICP.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 147.6 Property Equities 64.6 44.6 34.8 22.3 49.6 Sources: IPD, Oslo Børs Benchmark Index, Oslo Børs Statsobligasjonsind. 3., Statistics Norway, Oslo Børs OSE44 Real Estate. FREDRIK SELMERS VEI 2 FREDRIK SELMERS VEI 2 AKERSHUS EIENDOM IS HANDLING THE LEASING OF 3.9 M² FOR NORDEA LIV NORGE AS, THROUGH ABERDEEN PROPERTY INVESTORS.
PAGE 28 REGIONAL PROPERTY MARKETS REGIONAL PROPERTY MARKETS Bergen The vacancy rate in the Bergen office market continues to fall, and is currently at 6.2%. The average rent level for new or refurbished office space is around 1,55 1,6 NOK/sq.m. in prime CBD, and ca 1,375 1,4 NOK/ sq.m. in the fringes. We predict the moderate growth to continue at more or less the same pace, as there are several office developments currently under construction way that will stabilize the market in the near future. The demand for office space and development properties remains good and stable, yet we do expect a certain increase in rate of return, due to raising long-term interest rates. Stavanger The commercial property market in the Stavanger region is still very active, and the growth in the oil exploration industry has created boom times for commercial as well as residential property. Both national as well as international investors find it increasingly attractive to buy property, as most properties are fully rented out, contain solid tenants, and so far have offered good investment opportunities with yield levels around 6 7%. The office vacancy in the Stavanger region is now at 1,5% 2%. Due to the scarcity of good standard offices in prime locations, the rental market is currently an owners market. Rents are still rising on both office and retail space, as well as for warehouse and logistics/ production areas. The most visible imbalance in the market consists of buildings with combined office and logistics/production facilities where demand is much higher than available space. Large office areas are hard to find in the region, and in the CBD area it is almost impossible to find vacant retail space. Older buildings that are in need of renovation, as well as projected new buildings are the hardest to rent out these days. Trondheim EiendomsMegler1 Næringsmegling in Trondheim is expecting continued increases in rents per square meter in the next 2 years. In prime locations in the CBD, rents are forecasted to exceed NOK 2,5 per m 2 in the first quarter of 28. Average rent for office space is currently in the 1,2 1,7 NOK per m 2 range for central locations. New construction of office space in attractive locations has been started, with signed leases for above 2,2 NOK per square meter. The largest commercial property sales transaction in Trondheim occurred in the first half of 27 through the sale of the office complex Pirsenteret AS. At a price in excess of 1 billion NOK, this represented a yield just below 5.%. The effective long-term yield is currently stable at between 5.75% and 6.5% for attractive objects. During the next three years, the completion of new projects is expected to supply a total of 6. square meters of new office space. Verftstomta, the next stage of Pirsenteret, Teknobyen and Brattørkaia are the largest among these projects; three of these occur at the waterfront. 39 YEAR-END OFFICE RENTS Rents in nominal NOK per m 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 1H 27 Bergen 75 8 8 85 95 95 1 1 1 1 175 1 25 1 125 1 75 1 75 1 1 1 225 1 35 Trondheim 75 75 8 85 85 9 95 1 5 1 1 1 15 1 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 35 1 6 Stavanger CBD 5 55 55 6 7 8 85 85 1 1 1 25 1 25 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 5 1 6 Stavanger Oil 55 6 6 6 65 75 8 8 95 1 1 95 95 1 5 1 2 1 3 Source: Dagens Næringsliv