CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

Transcription

1 CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace, members tax payments slowed savings balance growth to.1%, firms hired 221, workers, consumer spending stagnated, and long-term interest rates fell 1 basis points as the 1 basis point rise in inflation expectations was more than offset by the 2 basis point decline in real interest rates. At the end of February, CUNA s monthly estimates reported 6,413 CUs in operation, down 11 CUs from one month earlier. Year-to-date the number of credit unions declined by 1, greater than the 96 lost in the first four months of 2. Credit union savings balances remained above the one trillion dollar mark in April even though money market account balances fell 1.1% to pay taxes. Consumers are saving their gas price dividend due to their belief that gas prices will not stay at their current levels for long. The nation s CUs increased their loan portfolios 1.% in April, slightly more than the.9% pace reported in April 2. During the last months, credit union loan portfolios increased 1.7%, slightly above the 9.1% pace reported by community banks. Credit union memberships rose a robust 37, in April, or.3% month-overmonth, up from 333, reported in April 2, or.3, to reach 13.2 million. The underlying annualized membership growth rate is now 4.3%, the highest in modern times. Credit union loan delinquency rates fell to.77% in April, down from. one year earlier due to a stronger economy and double digit loan growth. Loan charge-off rates fell to.47%. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During April, the economy added 221, jobs, the unemployment rate fell to., personal income jumped.39%, consumer prices climbed.1%, consumer confidence declined, new home sales rose 6.%, existing home sales fell 3.3%, auto sales slowed 3.%, home prices rose 2.7%, and the 1-year Treasury interest rate fell 1 basis points to average 1.9. These cross currents mask an economy that is growing much faster than the.7% drop in GDP reported in the first quarter. Competition from the,946 community banks is on the rise. In the year ending in the first quarter, community bank loan balances surged 9.1%, deposits increased 4.9% and loans to individuals rose.7%. Community banks return on asset ratios rose to.9 in the first quarter, up from.7% one year earlier, with only.% of banks reporting negative earnings, down from 2 five years earlier. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose 1% in April, slightly above the.9% pace reported in April 2, due to strong growth in home equity loans (3.%), adjustable-rate first mortgages (2.1%) and new auto loans (1.9%). The only lending product reporting negative growth was fixed-rate first mortgage loans (-.%). Credit union loan balances rose 2. in the first 4 months of this year (Figure 1) faster than the 2.1% set in 2 and the.9% set in 213. This is the fastest year-to-date pace since 2. Credit unions are picking up a greater market share of the consumer loan market. Currently, credit unions have a 9. share of the consumer loan market, up from. a year ago but below the 9.% share credit unions had in 2. With loans growing faster than savings over the last year - 1.% versus 4.% - the credit union average loan-to-savings ratio reached 74. in April compared to 7. in April Figure 1 Total CU Loans Year-to-Date Growth Comparison April 2 2. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec %

2 Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer-installment-credit loan balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose 13.9% during the months ending in April, a modest deceleration from the.9% year over pace set in February (Figure 2). The slowdown was due to a reduction in the pace of credit card balance growth. Credit union credit card loan balances grew at a modest 4.% seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in April due to low gas prices reducing the amount of credit used at gas stations (Figure 3). Credit quality improved over the last year. Consumer loan delinquency rates fell to.6 in the first quarter, down from.71% in the first quarter of 2 due to a stronger overall U.S. economy Loan Growth Trends 13 6 April 2 Total Loans Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) 13 6 Figure 2 Figure % 6 1.7% CU Credit Card Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 1 % % 13% % 11% 1% 9% % 7% % 3% 1% % -1% % % 13% % 11% 1% 9% % 7% % 3% 1% % -1% - Vehicle Loans Credit union new-auto loan balances grew at a 23.7% seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in April, which is the fastest pace on record (Figure 4). On a month over month basis, new auto loan balances increased 1.9% in April, faster than the 1. reported in April 2. One factor driving the strong new-auto lending at credit unions is very competitive interest rates; the average interest rate on a credit union -year new auto loan is 2.% compared to the bank average of 3.7%, according to Informa Research Services. May through October is considered the new-auto buying and lending season % 1 % % 1% % % - CU New Auto Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate % -% - -% -% -1-1% Figure % 1 % % 1% % % % -1% -% -% -1-1% Millions of Units U.S. Vehicles Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Figure Source: Autodata Corp. Recession New Auto Sales Vehicle sales eased up slightly to a 16. million unit seasonally-adjusted annualized sales rate in April, down from the strong 17.1 million units reported in March. Sales were up 2.% year over year. Lower gas prices are fueling the demand for light trucks, which now make up % of all sales the highest in 1 years. Consumer fundamentals job gains, wage growth, rising household formations, and rising stock and home prices will improve during the remainder of the year, which will keep auto sales and credit union auto lending going strong (Figure ). 2 Credit Union Trends Report

3 Billions of Dollars Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union first mortgage loan balances rose.3% in April, down from the.% increase in April 2. All of the gain was due to adjustable-rate mortgage balances, which make up 3% of all first mortgage loan balances rising 2.1% while fixed-rate mortgage loans fell.%. The contract interest rate on a 3-year fixed-rate conventional home mortgage fell to 3.% in April, down from 3.9% in March, and 64 basis points lower than a year earlier. The Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Mortgage Index rose 13.7% in April from its March reading indicating that the housing market recovery is gaining momentum. Another housing/mortgage market leading indicator is pending home sales, which rose 3. in April and is up % year over year. We can therefore expect faster mortgage loan balance growth in a month or two as these applications turn into new loan balances. Home prices rose 2.7% in April from March, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, the fastest pace since February 197, and 6.% year-over-year. The index is now only 9% below the peak set in April 26 and should reach new highs by the end of 216. Other home price indexes are also reporting robust home price appreciation: the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 4.1% year over year, and the FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index rose % year over year. Home prices are expected to rise another % in 2 and in 216. With home prices rising credit union members increased their home equity loan balances 3.% in April to mostly pay for taxes, but also purchase cars and other durable goods. This monthly gain is greater than the.% increase reported in April 2. During the last months home equity loan balances increased.9% the fastest pace since August 29 when members were turning to this source of funds as the labor market was in a free fall (Figure 6). Credit union real estate lending will remain robust through 216 because the fundamental drivers of housing demand are moving in the right direction: improving labor market, rising real average weekly earnings, increasing household formation, lower secondary-market down-payment requirements, improving household balance sheets, and rising consumer confidence All Real Estate Loans Growth CU Real Estate Loans Fixed Rate 1 st Mortgages 2 = April Adjustable Rate 1 st Mortgages Home Equity Loans.9 Second Mortgages -1.9 Credit Union Liquidity Flows $ $72.4 $7 $6 $ $4.4 $4 $3 $2 $1 $7. $9. $1.4 $.7 $. $3.1 $ -$1 -$3. -$.1 -$2 From 1 month ago From 1 year ago Loans Investments Savings borrowings Capital Figure 6 Figure 7 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets fell to 33. in April, down from 3.7% in April 2, as credit unions partly funded $7. billion in new loans with $3. billion in surplus funds (Figure 7). During the last year, credit unions added $72.4 billion in loans to their balance sheets, the fastest in credit union history. The lion s share was funded with $4.4 billion in new savings deposits. The remainder was funded by $9. billion in additional borrowings, $1.4 billion in additional capital (net income), and a $.1 billion reduction in the investment portfolio (Figure 7). Surplus funds with a maturity less than 1 year rose to 4. at the end of the first quarter, from 42. at year-end 2, due to credit unions parking the seasonal first-quarter surge in savings deposits into cash deposits at financial institutions and cash deposits in corporate credit unions. The opportunity cost of keeping funds in cash lessened in April as the slope of yield curve (3-year Treasury interest rate minus the fed funds interest rate) fell to.7% in April from.9 last December. More recently, however, the yield curve has steepened as real interest rates and inflation expectations both increased due to a better global economy, rising expectations for faster U.S. economic growth in the 2 nd half of the year, and forecasts of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the fourth quarter of this year. 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Basis Points Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances grew at a slow 3. seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in April, due to members beginning to spend their accumulated low-gas-prices windfall. April s credit union savings seasonal factors (tax payments) typically subtract. percentage points from the underlying savings trend growth. In the year ending in the first quarter of 2, credit union assets rose 4., slightly above the growth rate reported for the year ending in the first quarter of 2. Asset growth accelerated for all asset size categories, but larger credit unions reported faster growth than smaller (Figure ). Credit union cost of funds fell to a record low.1% in the first quarter of 2, from.3% in the first quarter of 2, due to low-cost regular share and share draft accounts making up a larger share of credit union total deposits (Figure 9) Credit Union Asset Growth (by Asset size) 2 Q1 2 Q < $2 mil $2-$ $-$1 $1- $2 Figure Figure $2- $ $-$1 bil. 7.4 >$1 bil Savings Distribution U.S. Credit Unions Certificates Share Drafts MMAs IRAs Regular Shares Capital and Other Key Measures Credit union return-on-asset ratios averaged.7% in the first quarter of 2, exactly equal to the first quarter of 2. The average ratio however masks the large income inequality that pervades the credit union movement (Figure 1). The components that make up the return-on-asset ratio were not constant year over year. Net interest margins and fee/other income ratios rose 2 and basis points, respectively, while operating expense and provision for loan loss ratios increased 4 and 3 basis points, respectively, which mean the 7 basis points in additional income were exactly offset by the 7 basis points in additional expenses. The credit union net-charge-off-to-average-loan ratio fell to.47% in the first quarter, down from the.% reported in the first quarter of 2 (Figure 11). Prudent loan underwriting over the last few years along with an improving economy has brought the loan charge-off ratio back to levels reported prior to the Great Recession. 1 Credit Union Return on Assets (by Asset size) 2 Q1 2 Q1 9 9 % 13% % 11% CU Net Chargeof Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Left Axis) Net Chargeoff Rate (Right Axis) % % < $2 mil $2-$ $-$1 $1- $2 6 6 $2- $ $-$1 bil >$1 bil Figure 1 Figure 11 1% 9% % 7% % 3% 1% % 7:1 :1 9:1 1:1 11:1 :1 13:1 :1 :1 Source: Department of Labor, NCUA,CUNA 1.%.9%.%.7%..%..3%..1%.% 4 Credit Union Trends Report

5 Credit Unions and Members As of April 2, CUNA estimates 6,413 credit unions were in operation, 11 fewer than March. During the first four months of 2, approximately 1 credit unions ceased to exist because of mergers, purchase and assumptions, or liquidation. This rate is slightly faster than the 96 reported during the similar time period in 2, as shown by the left-most bars in Figure. Expect the annual decline in the number of credit unions to rise over the next two years (Figure 13). The largest 1 credit unions by asset size (1. of all credit unions) controlled 41.3% of all credit union assets in March, up from 39. in March 2 and 3.% in March 213. To make it on the top 1 credit union list today, a credit union must have assets greater than $2 billion. These large credit unions enjoy significant economies of scale advantage over smaller institutions. For example, the top 1 credit unions reported operating-expense-to-average-asset ratios of 2.61%, approximately 1 basis points below the average reported by all other credit unions. This high level of productivity raises the barrier to entry for new credit unions and increases the competitive pressure on smaller credit unions. 4 Figure Comparison of Declines in # of CUs April 2 Actual = 6,413 Number of CUs YTD April Declines Annual Declines April to April Annual Declines Annual Decline in Number of Credit Unions Figure Figure 13 Credit union memberships grew a strong 3, in April, or.3%, up from April 2 when the movement added 33, memberships, an increase of.3. In the year to April 2, credit union memberships rose 3. faster than the 2.7% pace set in the year to April 2 (Figure ). The membership gain was partly driven by the 221, new jobs created in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jobs and credit union membership data is cointegrated because when many individuals obtain a job they also become eligible to join a credit union and/or find the need to obtain credit for car loans and other durable goods. Credit unions should expect membership growth to exceed 3% in 2 and 216 as the economic recovery and credit demand continue for the next two years (Figure ) Figure Comparison of Membership Increases Members in Millions 4..4 April 2 Actual = 13.2 Million YTD April Increase.6 Annual Increase April to April Annual Increase 3.6 Figure Annual Membership Growth April 2 = 13.2 Million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,11.4 1, , ,1. 1, , Credit Union Growth Rates Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (3.6) (261) 1.1% (3.) (22) (4.) (29) 1.33% (4.) (29) (3.9) (22) 1.1% (3.9) (2) 1.13% (4.) (21) 1.9% (4.) (2) (3.9) (27) 1.% (4.2) (29).9% (4.3) (31) (3.9) (273).9% (4.3) (3) (4.4) (31).49% (3.7) (29) (3.) (244).2% (3.3) (226).41% (4.) (272) (3.7) (24) (4.3) (297) (4.2) (22) (4.2) (2).9% (4.6) (39) (4.6) (311).74% (4.3) (26).767% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* (7.2) (7.2) (7.1) (7.) (6.) (6.1) 4.4 (.) (6.1) (6.) (4.1) (3.6) (3.) (3.1) (2.7) (1.7) (.) Credit Union Trends Report

8 Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC $ in Billions $ % 1.% 4.1% CU Loan Portfolio $66.1 $6.1 $. $7.4 $.3 $7. $44.1 $11.1 $ % 9.3% % 61.% 6.3% 9.% April CIC Other $72.9 $746.1.%.1% CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions $ Billions Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick , Ext steve.rick@cunamutual.com CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, 2 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Credit Union Trends Report