CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

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1 CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 216 (March 216 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 577, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a % and 7.6% seasonally-adjusted annualized pace, respectively. Firms hired 2, workers, nominal consumer spending increased.2%, and long-term interest rates increased basis points. Real GDP growth was.5% in the first quarter due to a slowdown in inventory accumulation and weak manufacturing activity. At the end of March, CUNA s monthly estimates reported 6,163 credit unions in operation, 24 fewer than one month earlier. Year-over-year, the number of credit unions declined by 24, less than the 2 lost in the months ending in March 2. Total credit union assets rose 1.% in March, faster than the.2% gain reported in March of 2. Assets rose 7.4% during the past year due to a 6.7% increase in deposits, a 32% increase in borrowings, and a 6.4% increase in capital. The nation s credit unions increased their loan portfolios by 1% in March, greater than the.7% pace reported in March 2. Loan balances are up 1.% during the last months. With loan balances growing faster than savings, credit union liquidity is tightening up as the credit union average loan-to-savings ratio reached 76.5%, up from 73.6% in March 2. Credit union memberships rose.55% in March, up from the.3% gain reported in March 2. Memberships are up 4.1% during the past year due to robust demand for credit, solid job growth and credit unions having comparatively lower fees and loan interest rates. Credit union loan delinquency rates fell to.74% in March, the long run average, from.2% in January due to tax refunds and bonuses allowing some members to catch-up on late loan payments. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During March, the economy added 2, jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 5.%, personal income rose.4%, personal spending rose.2%, consumer prices rose.1%, consumer confidence rose, new home sales fell 1.5%, existing home sales rose 5.1%, auto sales fell 5.1%, home prices rose 2.1%, and the 1- year Treasury interest rate increased basis points to average 1.%. The economy expanded at a.5% annualized rate in the first quarter of 216, below the long-run natural rate of 2.5%, due to slowdown in inventory accumulation, the plunge in energy sector capital spending and a big drag from net exports Consumer spending and housing investment were the main drivers of growth. Final sales of domestic product added. percentage points and the change in inventories subtracted.4 percentage points. The economy grew 2.4% in 2, the same as 2. Expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 216 and 2.75% in 217. The economy is approaching its potential rate of output, so the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds interest rate 5 basis points in 216. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose 1.% in March, faster than the.7% pace reported in March 2, and 1.% during the last months. March is historically the third weakest loan growth month of the year, with seasonal factors typically shaving -.24 percentage points from the underlying trend growth rate. The lending season is now in full swing with strong loan growth expected from April through September. Credit union loan growth is approaching its fastest pace in almost two decades. Credit union seasonally-adjusted annualized loan growth reached % in March, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2 when the stock market boom was reaching its apex and the accompanying wealth effect encouraged borrowing and spending (Figure 1). The stock market boom soon turned to a bust by the third quarter of 2, causing consumers to pull back and credit union lending to decline as well. This time around the credit boom is being driven by strong job growth, rising household formations and pent-up demand. Figure 1: CU Loan Growth Loan growth is expected to be 1% in 216, slightly less than 1.3% last year Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate % % % % 1% % % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% % % % % % 1% % % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2%

2 Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer installment credit balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose.% in March, better than the.% pace set in March 2, due to strong auto lending. Credit card balances were unchanged due to March seasonal factors that typically shave 1.31 percentage points from the underlying trend growth as members use tax refunds and bonuses to pay down outstanding credit card balances (Figure 2). Credit union consumer installment credit grew.% during the last year, which is better than the 6% for the total market excluding credit unions (Figure 3). Figure 2: Figure 3: 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -2.3% Credit Card Loan Seasonal Factors -1.5% -1.31%.5%.5%.6%.5%.26%.71% 3.% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept -.4% -.24% Oct Nov Dec Growth in Consumer Installment Credit Percent March CUs.% Total Market Excl. CUs 6.% Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 3.% Source: CUNA & NCUA. Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Vehicle Loans Credit union used-auto loan balances grew 2.4% in March, better than the 1.1% reported in March 2. March s usedauto loan seasonal factors usually add. percentage points to the underlying trend growth rate, (Figure 4). The used auto buying and lending season begins in March and runs through August. On a seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate basis, used-auto loan balances rose 1.6% in March the fastest pace on record. The last time used-auto loan balances grew this fast was during the dotcom stock market boom of 1. Today improving consumer fundamentals are driving strong auto loan growth: an improving labor market, low oil prices, faster wage growth, low interest rates, expanding driving-age population, improving construction activity, and better household balance sheets. Figure 4: Figure 5: 1.%.%.%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.% -.7% -.% -1.% Used Auto Loan Seasonal Factors -.36%.%.72%.32%.37%.35%.% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug -.1% Sept Oct Nov Dec -.% Source: CUNA & NCUA. -.41%-.42% U.S. Vehicles Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Vehicle sales in March slowed to a 16.6 million seasonally-adjusted annualized sales rate down from a 17.6 million sales pace in February and below the 17.1 million set in March 2, due to an early Easter hurting sales. Expect sales to rebound to over 17 million for the rest of the year, above the 16.5 million units consistent with inherent auto demand. Expect auto sales to exceed 17. million for all of 216, 3% more than the 17.3 million sales pace set in 2, due to increasing household formations, the suburbanization of millennials, low gas prices, ample access to credit, low debt burdens, strong job growth, the release of pent-up demand and growing hourly earnings Millions of Units Recession New Auto Sales Inherent Demand Source: Autodata Corp Credit Union Trends Report

3 Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union fixed-rate first mortgage loan balances jumped 1.5% in March, but the jump was only half the 3.% increase reported in March 2. This rapid March mortgage volume was due to a surge in loan applications during January and February when mortgage interest rates fell. Moreover, the third month of each quarter typically reports the biggest monthly increase in loan balances. During the last months, fixed-rate first mortgage balances rose.4%, similar to the.6% increase in adjustable-rate mortgage balances. Improving household balance sheets, rising consumer incomes and a rising capacity to service debt has decreased mortgage credit risk and therefore encouraged credit union lenders to loosen lending standards. The contract interest rate on a 3-year fixed-rate conventional home mortgage rose to 3.6% in March, from 3.66% in February, but lower than the 3.77% reported in March 2. The slight increase in mortgage interest rates coincided with an basis point increase in the 1-year Treasury interest rate, which reached 1.%. The basis point increase in long term interest rates was caused by a 24 basis point increase in expected inflation (due to rising oil prices) which more than offset a basis point decrease in real interest rates (due to foreign capital inflows into the U.S.). Single family home prices rose 2.1% in March from February, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, the fastest pace in 3 years. During the last months home prices rose 6.7%. Home prices are now 4% above the low reached in March 2. Improving economic fundamentals bode well for home sales and house price appreciation. The labor market is expected to reach full employment this summer. As the remaining labor slack dissipates, wage growth will help first-time buyers accumulate sufficient savings for down payments. This will increase the demand for housing, boosting home sales and house prices. Home equity loan balances rose a weak.2% in March as members used bonuses and tax refunds to pay down some of their lines of credit. Because of these seasonal factors, March is typically the weakest month of the year for home equity loan growth (Figure 6). However, credit union home equity loan balances grew at a.4% seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in March, due to rising home prices, the improving job market, rising consumer confidence, consumers releasing pent-up demand for durable goods and lower interest rates. Figure 6: Figure 7: 1.%.%.%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.% -.% -1.% -1.1% -1.2% -1.3% -1.4% -1.5% Home Equity Loan Seasonal Factors Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -.% -.21% -.21% -.2%-.26% Source: CUNA & NCUA %.52%.3%.1%.64%.55%.57% 75% 73% 7% 6% 65% 63% 6% 5% 55% CU Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Recession 53% Surplus Funds-to-Assets (Right Axis) 22% Loan-to-Asset (Left Axis) 5% 2% % 3% 36% 34% 32% 3% 2% 26% 24% Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets fell to 31.6% in March, (Figure 7), from 33.3% last year, as credit unions partly funded new loan growth with cash and investments. During March, a 1.6% surge in savings balances funded a 1% increase in loans, a.6% increase in surplus funds and a 7.4% reduction in external borrowings. Surplus funds are expected to fall to 2% of assets by this time next year, the tightest liquidity position since the first quarter of 2, as loan balances grow 1% and savings balances rise only 5%. Loans as a percent of assets are expected to rise from 64.6% today to 67.1% by March 217 (Figure 7). Since the average return on loans is approximately 4.7% today, and the average return on investments is 1.2%, the 2.5 percentage point shift in assets from surplus funds to loans will boost asset yields by basis points, [( ) *.25]. Currently, 3-year Treasury notes have yields only 55 basis points above the fed funds rate (.2% versus.37%) compared to a 1 basis point difference during March of last year. This has caused credit unions to increase the percentage of surplus funds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 47% from 45% last year. 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances surged 1.6% in March, significantly above the.5% gain reported in March 2, due to the seasonal factors of tax refunds and bonuses being deposited in credit union members share draft and regular share accounts, which increased 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. March s seasonal factors typically add 1. percentage points to the underlying savings trend growth, the second biggest of the year (Figure ). Credit union savings balances grew at a 7.6% seasonally-adjusted annualized growth rate in March due mainly to low gas prices putting more money in members pockets (Figure ). Recent increases in gas prices and members increasing their spending will slow the savings growth rate trend for the remainder of the year. We forecast credit union savings balances to grow 5% in 216, below the 6.% reported in 2. Figure : Figure : 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.%.%.6%.4% Capital and Other Key Measures The credit union average capital-to asset ratio fell to 1.6% in March 216, down from 1.7% reported one year earlier. In the year ending in March, credit union capital rose a weak 6.4% while assets grew 7.4%, which pushed down the capital ratio.1 percentage points. Strong asset growth was caused by members saving their gasoline windfall instead of redeploying that spending power. Capital ratios should climb to.2% by the end of 217 as earnings and capital accumulation outpaces asset growth, (Figure 1). The credit union loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) fell to.74% in March, down from.1% in December, but up from.6% in March 2 (Figure ). Credit unions reported large declines in the delinquency rate in February and March as members used bonuses and tax refunds to catch-up on overdue loans. Falling unemployment to 4.5% by 217 heralds further improvement in loan performance over the next 7 quarters. Figure 1: CU Savings Seasonal Factors 1.45% 1.%.2%.%.3%.% -.2% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -.% -.1%-.17% -.4% -.6% -.% Source: CUNA & NCUA % -.3% -.35%-.36% -.5% Net Capital-To-Asset Ratios Figure : CU Savings Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 1% 17% 16% % % % % % 1% % % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 17% 16% % % % % % 1% % % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % CU Delinquency Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment (Left Axis) Delinquency (Right Axis) Credit Union Trends Report

5 Percent Credit Unions and Members As of March 216, CUNA estimates 6,163 credit unions were in operation, 24 fewer than February. During the last months, the number of credit unions fell by 24, slightly below the 2 annual decline set one year ago (Figure ). During the first quarter of 216, the number of credit unions fell by 73, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2. Greater regulatory compliance burdens from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will put additional downward pressure on CU non-interest fee income and will therefore accelerate the number of mergers over the next few years. At the end of 2, 253 credit unions reported assets greater than $1 billion; 24 more than the year before, (Figure ). These large credit unions control over 6% of all credit union loans, but make up less than 4.1% of all credit unions. The number of credit unions with assets less than $2 million fell by 243 to reach 2,6 as these credit unions either grew into the larger asset class or merged with a larger credit union. Figure : Figure : Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs March 2 March 216 Decline = 24 Number of CUs 5 3,5 3, 2,31 2,6 Number of CUs (by Asset size) YTD March Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,14 1, < $2 mil $2-$5 $5-$1 $1- $ $25- $ $5-$1 bil >$1 bil Credit union memberships grew at a record pace in the first quarter of 2, adding 1.32 million, significantly better than the.7 million added in the first quarter of 2. On a growth rate basis, memberships are up 4.1% in the year ending in March 216, faster than the 3.5% pace set in 2 (Figure ). The memberships gain was partially driven by the 6, new jobs created in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, better than the 56, jobs added in the first quarter of 2. Members are also joining credit unions in droves to get an auto loan and other forms of credit. Credit unions should expect membership growth to exceed 3% in 216 and 217. Most of the membership growth is taking place at credit unions with assets over $5 million, (Figure ), due to organic growth and mergers. Credit unions with less than $5 million in assets lost memberships during the last 2 years. Figure : Figure : Percent Annual Membership Growth March 216 = 16.4 Million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Credit Union Membership Growth (by Asset size) < $2 mil $2-$5 $5-$1 $ $25 $25- $ $5-$1 bil >$1 bil 5 Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,.6 1, , ,14.3 1, , ,15.2 1, , ,11.2 1, , ,23.3 1, , ,21.2 1, , ,23.4 1, , ,21.7 1, , ,2. 1, , ,227. 1, , , , , ,255. 1, , ,26. 1, , Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (3.) (273).% (4.3) (3).36% (4.4) (31).4% (3.7) (25).52% (3.5) (244).25% (3.3) (226).41% (4.) (272).52% (3.7) (254).32% (4.3) (27).56% (4.2) (22).4% (3.) (262).34% (4.2) (26).73% (4.3) (2).63% (4.) (267).72% (3.) (26).737% (4.1) (274).74% (4.5) (2).757% (4.5) (26).77% (4.) (263).776% (4.) (316).7% (4.1) (267).% (4.2) (277).% (4.6) (2).22% (4.2) (273).775% (4.4) (24).735% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* (3.1) (2.7) (1.7) (.) Credit Union Trends Report

8 Percent Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC $ in Billions $5.5 $57.4 $544.1 $5.1 $ % 54.1% CU Loan Portfolio 56.7% 5.3% 5.6% $5.3 $ Mar CIC 61.% 61.5% Other $6.1 $66.1 $72. $3.5 $ % 5.% 5.5% 57.5% 57.3% Percent CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions $ Billions Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick , Ext CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, 216 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Credit Union Trends Report

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