CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

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1 $ in Billions CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 216 (May 216 Data) Highlights During May, credit unions picked-up 431, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at an 11.9% and 6.7% seasonally-adjusted annualized pace, respectively. Firms hired 11, workers, nominal consumer spending increased., and long-term interest rates increased 11 basis points. Consumers are feeling confident about their future financial conditions and will keep the economy moving forward through 217. At the end of May, CUNA s monthly estimates reported 6,6 credit unions in operation, 2 fewer than one month earlier. Year-over-year, the number of credit unions declined by 291, more than the 26 lost in the months ending in May 21. Total credit union assets fell -.1% in May, slower than the.9% gain reported in May of 21. Assets rose 7.% during the past year due to a 6.9% increase in deposits, an 1 increase in borrowings, and a 6. increase in capital. The nation s credit unions increased their loan portfolios by 1.% in May, faster than the.9% pace reported in May 21. Loan balances are up 11.% during the last months. With loan balances growing faster than savings, credit union liquidity is tightening up as the credit union average loan-to-savings ratio reached 77., up from 74. in May 21. Credit union memberships rose. in May, up from the.33% gain reported in May 21. Memberships are up 4.3% during the past year due to robust demand for credit, solid job growth and credit unions having comparatively lower fees and loan interest rates. Credit union loan delinquency came in at.7 in May, below the.7s reported in May 21. Delinquency rates typically reach their lowest point in the 2 nd quarter of a year, so expect the ratio to begin rising in the second half of 216. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During May, the economy added 11, jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, personal income rose., personal spending rose., consumer prices rose., consumer confidence fell, new home sales fell, existing home sales rose 1., auto sales rose.1%, home prices rose 1.3%, and the 1-year Treasury interest rate increased 11 basis points to average 1.81%. Consumers are feeling confident this summer due to a number of positive economic factors: tightening labor markets, rising income expectations, low gas prices, record stock and home prices, low debt burdens, low interest rates, low inflation and rising wages. This will keep credit union members borrowing and spending with credit union loan balance growth possibly exceeding 11% for the first time since 2. Since consumer spending accounts for 7% of total economic activity, a confident consumer will keep economic growth above 2.2% for the remainder of 216. Economic growth should accelerate in 217 to 2.% pushing the economy above its potential level of output. Total Lending Credit union loan balances rose 1.% in May, faster than the.9% pace reported in May 21, and 3.9% year-to-date. May was the first month in many years where every loan category reported positive growth. This pushed year-over-year loan growth to 11%, the fastest pace since May 2. Meanwhile savings balances grew 6.9% over the last year, above the. 1- year average growth rate, due to members accumulating their low gas price windfall. But with loans growing faster than savings the credit union average loan-to-savings ratio reached 77. in May, above the 74. reported one year earlier. We are still below the high-water mark for the loan-to-share ratio set back in August 29 when the credit union movement was 84.1% loaned out. Vehicle lending has made up the lion s share of loan growth over the last year, (Figure 1). Since May of 21 credit union auto loan balances rose a record $39.9 billion, followed by first mortgage loan balances rising $26. billion. Figure 1: Sources of Loan Growth ($ in Billions) May 21 May 216 Total Loan Growth $82. Bln. Vehicles 1st Mort. 26. HE/2nd Mort. 3.6 MBLs All Other Vehicles 19. 1st Mort. Year to Date May 216 Total Loan Growth $31.3 Bln. 4. HE/2nd Mort. 2.1 MBLs 4.2 All Other 1

2 Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer-installment-credit loan balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose 14. during the months ending in May, the fastest pace since February 21 (Figure 2). The 14. pace is more than twice the.% pace of the total market, excluding credit unions, and significantly faster than the 3.9% growth rate of the total market, excluding credit unions and government student loans. Credit union credit card loan balances grew at a 7. seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in May due to rising gas prices increasing credit used at gas stations (Figure 3). Figure 2: Figure 3: Growth in Consumer Installment Credit Percent May CUs 14. Total Market Excl. CUs.% Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 3.9% 1 CU Credit Card Growth 1 1% 1 13% % 11% 1% 9% 7% % 3% 1% % -1% % 1 13% % 11% 1% 9% 7% % 3% 1% % -1% - Vehicle Loans Credit union new-auto loan balances grew at a 2. seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in May, a strong acceleration from the 1.3% pace set in May 21 (Figure 4). Credit union new-auto lending is the fastest growing loan category for the first five months of 216 and throughout the last year.. Used-auto lending is the second fastest growing loan category, increasing 1 during the last year, slightly less than new-auto loan growth of 16.. On a month-overmonth basis, new-auto loan balances increased 1. in May, faster than the. reported in May 21. May s seasonal factors usually add.22 percentage points to the underlying trend growth rate (Figure ) and June s seasonal factors are typically the largest of the year. May through October is considered the new-auto buying and lending season. Figure 4: Figure : - -1% - - -% CU New Auto Growth % 1% - % % 1% % % -% New Auto Loan Seasonal Factors 1. 1.%...7%.7%..31% % Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec % % -.39% % Source: CUNA & NCUA. Vehicle sales rose in May to a 17. million unit seasonally-adjusted, annualized sales rate, which is up from the 17.4 million units reported in April, due to rising consumer confidence, a strong labor market, favorable financing, and attractive offers over the Memorial Day holiday. Rising oil and gas prices seem to have had little effect on the mix of cars and light trucks sold, with truck sales accounting for of the total. Vehicle sales should remain around current levels through the end of the year and begin to slow gradually next year. The credit union auto lending growth rate will therefore slow to a more sustainable annual pace of 7% for the rest of the decade. 2 Credit Union Trends Report

3 Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union home equity loan balances grew at a strong 11. seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in May, (Figure 6), due to rising home prices and improving consumer confidence. The demand for home equity credit will remain strong due to rising home prices, the improving job market, rising consumer confidence, consumers releasing pent-up demand for durable goods, and low interest rates. Credit union fixed-rate, first mortgage loan balances rose only.% in May, down from the. in May 21, and have showed little growth so far this year. Existing home sales increased to a.43 million annual pace in May, according to the National Association of Realtors, above the million considered to be a healthy level. Their existing single-family median home price index rose % over the last year and now surpasses its pre-correction peak. Generally speaking, this means most homeowners no longer need to fear a capital loss if they sell their homes. This will increase the supply of homes on the market and reduce the rate of price appreciation during the next few years. The contract interest rate on a 3-year fixed-rate conventional home mortgage fell to 3. in May, down slightly from 3.61% in April, but below the 3.8 in May 21. The decrease in interest rates encouraged some fence sitters to purchase a home now before interest rates head back up. Home prices rose 1.3% in May, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, and.9% year-over-year. The index is now 41% above the low point in March 211 and only 7% below the peak set in April 26. House prices have reached new highs in nearly half of the states in the U.S. A strong labor market over the next few months will lead to a surge in home sales as household formation increases and existing households experience improving balance sheets and decide to exchange their old homes in for newer ones. However without first-time homebuyers, the market is just shuffling homes among current homeowners and not generating new demand. Renting, rather than owning, continues to be popular with Millennials due to a lack of funds for a down payment and lingering fears over the most recent housing downturn. Figure 6: Figure 7: 3% % 1% % CU Home Equity Growth % % 1% % Maturity of Surplus Funds (% of Total) Q1 16 Q1 Less than 1 Year 1-3 Years 3- Years -1 Years Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union surplus funds as a percent of assets fell to 3.9% in May, down from 32. in May 21, due to credit union assets growing faster than surplus funds, 7% versus.7% respectively. Credit union yield-on-asset ratios rose basis points over the last year to reach 3.3 in the first quarter of 216. The mix effect, the shift in the mix of credit union assets from low-yielding investments to higher-yielding loans, added 7 basis points to credit union yield-on-asset ratios. However, the rate effect shaved 2 basis points off yield-on-asset ratios due to the yield on loans falling from 4.67% in the first quarter of 21 to 4.9% in the first quarter of 216. Credit union cost of funds remained at.1% throughout the last year, so net interest margins rose basis points. Surplus funds with a maturity of less than 1 year rose to 47.7% of all surplus funds in the first quarter, which is up from 4. in the same period a year ago (Figure 7). Longer term investments as a percent of surplus funds fell during the last year; 1-to-3 year investments rose to 27.7% of surplus funds from 26. a year earlier while 3-to- year investments fell from 18.7% to 17.. Credit unions are repositioning their investment portfolios due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue raising interest rates in the 4 th quarter of this year. By reducing the concentration of long-term investments, credit unions reduce their interest rate risk exposure that accompany rising interest rates. 3 Credit Union Trends Report

4 Percent Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances grew at a 6.7% seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in May (Figure 8), a slight deceleration when compared to the last few months. However, growth is faster now than the last couple of years because of low gas prices, rising household incomes, strong job growth, and faster membership growth. May s seasonal factors (tax refunds) typically add a small.8 percentage points to the underlying savings trend growth (Figure 9). Seasonal factors turn negative for most of the remainder of the year. Contributing to the overall growth in savings balances was the 2. growth in share certificate balances during the first five months of 216 as credit unions slowly increased deposit interest rates to help fund the surge in loan balances. Credit union wholesale borrowings are up 13. year-to-date and 17.% from a year ago to boost year-over-year asset growth to 7.%. Total credit union assets should breach the $1.3 trillion mark by the end of the year. Figure 8: Figure 9: Capital and Other Key Measures The credit union loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) fell to.7 in May, from.73% in April, and from.7 in May 21 (Figure 1). Today s delinquency rate is significantly lower than the 1 year average of 1.19%. Delinquency rates tend to decline during the first half of the year and rise during the second half, so we don t expect the ratio to decline much further in 216. The slight decline in the delinquency rate over the last year was caused by loans growing faster than delinquent loans; the dollar amount of delinquent loans rose 7.9% during the past year as loans made over the last few years season, and the dollar amount of total loans rose 11.% due to rising consumer confidence and credit demand. Credit union return-on-equity ratios fell to 6.9 in the first quarter of 216, from 7.2 in Q1 21, due to falling earnings. The disparity between large and small credit unions return-on-equity ratios remains large (Figure 11). Figure 1: CU Savings Growth 1 17% 1 1% 1 13% % 11% 1% 9% 7% % 3% 1% % % 1 1% 1 13% % 11% 1% 9% 7% % 3% 1% % CU Delinquency Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment (Left Axis) Delinquency (Right Axis) %... Figure 11: Credit Union Return on Equity (by Asset size) 21 Q1 216 Q CU Savings Seasonal Factors 1.4% %.% -. Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec -.13% % Source: CUNA & NCUA % < $2 mil $2-$ $-$1 $1- $ %-.3 -.% $2- $ $-$1 bil >$1 bil 4 Credit Union Trends Report

5 Credit Unions and Members As of May 216, CUNA estimates 6,6 credit unions were in operation, 2 fewer than April, and 291 less than May 21. During the first five months of 216, approximately 11 credit unions ceased to exist because of mergers, purchase and assumptions, or liquidation. This rate is faster than the 96 reported during the similar time period in 21, (Figure ). Most of the recent mergers were either an acquisition merger (where the assets of the merged credit union were 1-% of the acquirer credit union) or an absorption merger (where the assets of the merged credit union were less than 1% of the acquirer credit union). Our 216 forecast estimates an average annual decline of 29 credit unions through 22, bringing the total number of credit unions below, by the end of 22. During the last 11 years, approximately of the decline in the number of credit unions takes place in the second half of the year, so we should expect acceleration in mergers as we enter the third and fourth quarters (Figure 13). Figure : Figure 13: Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs Number of CUs 6 May 21 May 216 Decline = 291 # of CUs JAN - JUN JUL - DEC % s = JAN - JUN Share of Annual Change % 4 47% % 4 47% 1% YTD May Credit union memberships grew a strong 421, in May, or., up from May 21 when the movement added 343, memberships, an increase of only.33%. The membership gain was somewhat surprising given that only 11, new jobs were created in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and employment is typically one factor that drives credit union membership growth. Credit union memberships grew at a 4.3% seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth rate in May, below the record setting pace of the last few months (Figure 14). However, the rapid membership gain began with Bank Transfer Day on November, 211 and is being maintained by the strong pace of new job creation over the last few years and the tremendous growth in credit union auto lending. During the first five months of 216, credit unions added a record 2.2 million new credit union memberships, (Figure 1), which has outpaced the previous record set back in 28 when the banking sector started to come undone and 1.6 million Americans joined a credit union. Figure 14: Figure 1: 6.%.%.% 4.% 4.% 3.% 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.% CU Membership Growth.% %.%.% 4.% 4.% 3.% 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% Millions of Members Net Gain in Total CU Membership May 216 = 17.2 Million YTD May Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,19.2 1, , , , , ,23.3 1, , ,21.2 1, , ,23.4 1, , , , , , , , , , , ,236. 1, , ,2.9 1, , , , , , , , , , , Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (4.4) (31).849% (3.7) (29) (3.) (244).82% (3.3) (226).841% (4.) (272) (3.7) (24) (4.3) (297) (4.2) (282) (3.9) (262) (4.2) (286) (4.3) (288).683% (4.) (267) (3.9) (26).737% (4.1) (274) (4.) (299).77% (4.) (296).779% (4.) (263) (4.8) (316).79% (3.9) (26) (4.2) (277).89% (4.6) (299) (4.2) (273).77% (4.4) (284).721% (4.7) (34).729% (4.) (291).71% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* (1.7) (.8) Credit Union Trends Report

8 Percent Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC $ in Billions $8. $87.4 $44.1 $11.1 $ % CU Loan Portfolio 6.7% 9.3% 9. $8.3 $ May CIC 61.% 61.% Other $61.1 $66.1 $728.9 $84.9 $ % 9. 8.% 7.% 6.7% Percent CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions $ Billions Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick , Ext steve.rick@cunamutual.com CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, 216 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. 8 Credit Union Trends Report

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