Heat Plan Greater Copenhagen Area Jan Elleriis Vice president CTR Choose The Right
The Greater Copenhagen DH system 18 municipalities 4 integrated DH systems 500,000 end users 34,500 TJ (9,600 GWh, 32,700 GBtu) Approx 20 % heat demand in Denmark
The Companies Behind the Heat Plan VEKS established in 1984. A joint municipal company between 11 municipalities. By heat and supply 19 DH companies in the Western part of the greater Copenhagen area CTR established in 1984. A joint municipal company between 5 municipalities. By heat and supply 5 DH companies in the central part of the greater Copenhagen area KE was established in the present form in 2005. End user supplier of heat, gas, water and sewages. Supplier of district heating since 1925. Ea Energy Analyses consultant
Existing Heat Production Capacity 4 Waste to heat, 400 MW 4 CHP, 1.800 MW 7 units Steam turbines Gas turbines Coal, oil, gas, straw, wood pillars 1 Geothermal, 14 MW Several peak and reserve HOB
Background for the Project Climate!!! International focus on climate issues: UN climate panel prescribe 50% - 80% CO2 reduction in 2050 in order to keep two degree target. EU target for 2020: 20% CO2 reduction, 20% Renewable and 20% energy efficiency. DK increased targets. DK municipalities local climate targets, CO2 neutral districts. City of Copenhagen CO2 neutral 2025. End-user demand on climate aspects. Climate summit COP15 in Copenhagen December 2009.
Purpose of Project To secure a reasonable development in heat price and energy efficiency on the long run and at the same time maintain security of supply. To put focus on the role of DH when talking about CO2 reduction and renewable energy in the local society. To evaluate consequence on economic and macro economic issues on short and long run To generate interest for the development of the DH system in the Greater Copenhagen Area. To propagate the role of the DH companies. Is it realistic to reach 70 % RE in the DH system before 2025
Political Conditions for DH in Denmark Regulation, taxes and subsidy are important conditions for DH in Denmark. DK parliament energy agreement February 2008 Industrial waste used on power plants Increased subsidy to renewable (wind, biomass) Instructions on energy savings Political financing of general income tax reduction 15 % increase in taxes on energy Normalising tax on energy for CHP, 125 % Increased CHP tax i Copenhagen
Definition of Environment Factors Renewable Energy (RE) Content of oil products in waste CO2 emission increased from 17,6 kg/gj to 32,5 kg/gj CHP heat efficiency Heat marginal, 250 % to 300 % Power marginal, 90 % Taxation, 125 % Emissions, 200 % 90 80 70 60 50 kg/gj 40 30 20 10 0 Individual oil CTR 1989 CTR 2007 CO2
Scenarios Analysed 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 Base Existing frames and decisions taken Decentralised reduced market - Savings Consumer savings, increased local RE Central increased market Maxs. DH Conversion of N-gas, increased geothermal 100 % RE (waste included) Consumer savings, Conversion N-gas, increased geothermal Development in scenarios is not based on an optimization but more an analyses of consequence Perspective 2050 new CHP production 100 % RE, consumer savings, increased geothermal, heat pumps, new CHP technology
DKK/GJ Energy Prices 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 = 7,45 DKK Coal N-Gas F-Oil G-Oil Straw Wood 2010 2015 2020 2025
Power and Heat are Inter Connected Condition for DH depend on: Power market: Precipitation (rain snow) Wind CO2 Gas market Waste incineration Balmorel Model
Balmorel Model of DH system in Copenhagen
Analyses Scenarios 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025-2050 Model calculations Optimize production of heat and power (in total) Plant in operation Fuel to be used Power production based on market (Nord Pool market) Heat production based on demand and hydraulic restrictions (local) Price of power in market is calculated by the model Value of power a macro economic income Economy Society - Economic Total heat and power Macro economic
Catalogue of Production Technology Existing Technology CHP Fuel conversion Gasification technology long run Waste to heat Flu gas condensation Central RE Geothermal Heat pump Solar heating Surplus heat from industries Decentralised RE consumer level Heat pump Solar heating
Calculated Price of Power Spot Price Power Nord Pool 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 S01S02S03S04S05S06S07S08S09S10S11S12S13S14S15S16S17S18S19S20S21S22S23S24S25S26S27S28S29S30S31S32S33S34S35S36S37S38S39S40S41S42S43S44S45S46S47S48S49S50S51S52 DKK/MWh 2010 2025
PJ Heat Production Base Scenario 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 HOB CHP Others Waste - 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025
Energy Base Scenario PJ/year 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Coal Biomass N-Gas Oil Geoth. Waste 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025
Heat Production Base Scenario 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Energy PJ RE % Waste % CO2 kg/gj 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025
Heat Production 2025 all Scenarios PJ 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 Base Savings Maxs. DH 100 % RE Waste Others CHP HOB
PJ Others Heat Production 2025 All RE 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Sun Heat pump Surplus - low Surplus - high Geoth. - 2007 Base Savings Maxs. DH 100 % RE
RE Share of Heat Production in 2025 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Base Savings Maxs. DH 100 % RE Waste Biomass Sun Surplus Geoth.
Economy and Energy in Figures 2025 Base Savings Maxs. DH 100 % RE Power production TWh 7,5 7,2 7,7 7,9 - CHP based TWH 5 3,7 5,6 4,6 DH production PJ 37,5 31,6 45,9 39,9 +22 % - Biomass based PJ 15,9 11,4 18,2 20,5 -HOB PJ 0,9 0,3 1,8 1,7 Macro economic Mio. DKK/year 5717 5141 5491 4784 - CO2 Mio. DKK/year 815 780 766 591 -Taxes Mio. DKK/year 608 483 768 403 -Subsidies Mio. DKK/year -343-318 -408-438 Resulting economic Mio. DKK/year 5.452 4.976 5.131 4.819 Society economic Mio. DKK/year 6.075 5.554 5.929 5.501 Total 16 years Billion DKK 59 56 57 56-4 % -226 mio. DKK -2 % -146 mio. DKK
Economy and Energy in Figures 2025 Base Savings Maxs. DH 100 % RE Power production TWh 7,5 7,2 7,7 7,9 - CHP based TWH 5 3,7 5,6 4,6-16 % DH production PJ 37,5 31,6 45,9 39,9 - Biomass based PJ 15,9 11,4 18,2 20,5 -HOB PJ 0,9 0,3 1,8 1,7-576 mio. DKK Macro economic Mio. DKK/year 5717 5141 5491 4784 - CO2 Mio. DKK/year 815 780 766 591 -Taxes Mio. DKK/year 608 483 768 403 -Subsidies Mio. DKK/year -343-318 -408-438 Resulting economic Mio. DKK/year 5.452 4.976 5.131 4.819-521 mio. DKK Society economic Mio. DKK/year 6.075 5.554 5.929 5.501 Total 16 years Billion DKK 59 56 57 56
Energy Consumption for Heating 200% CHP method PJ 28 26 24 22 20 DH and individual FV + ind. opvarmning DH FV Base Grundscenariet Lavt forbrug (1) Savings Maxs. DH Udvidet marked (2) Grundscenariet Heraf fra fjernvarme Lavt forbrug (1) Udvidet marked (2) 18 16 14 12 10 2010 2015 2020 2025
CO 2 Emission Base Savings Maxs. DH
Conclusions The Danish taxation system and programme for subsidy of RE, forms a balanced bases for 70 % RE in the Copenhagen DH system. 70 % RE can be reached in 2015 if the accessibility of biomass is good. Negotiation with power companies necessary. It is attractive for all parties (society, companies, consumers) to convert a majority of N-gas consumers to the DH system in Copenhagen. Reinforcement of parts of the transmission system should be analysed in order to optimize the extension of the system