Cost Analysis of District Heating Compared to its Competing Technologies

Transcription

1 Cost Analysis of District Heating Compared to its Competing Technologies Jan Eric Thorsen Director Danfoss Application Centre Danfoss District Energy - Application Centre DK-Nordborg Oddgeir Gudmundsson Date 1

2 Cost analysis Limitations of the study: The study was only focusing on one plant operation, no optimization of the heat sources The study was only focusing on single family houses The case for multi apartment houses is even better! Some heat sources, f.ex. geothermal and waste incinerations have very high investment costs but very low fuel costs These plants should be designed for base load operation, not for peak load operation This is partly analyzed in the presentation Date 2

3 Comparison In this study it is assumed that the typical building is 120 m 2 and that traditional building consumes heat of 15 MWh/year and low energy building 7.5 MWh/year Thereof Domestic Hot Water consumption is typically around 3.2 MWh/year District heating plant capacity: 20 MW and 10 MW respectively. District heating was compared to the following alternative heating technologies: Solar thermal Individual gas boilers Ground/air source heat pumps Electrical boilers The investment and installation costs, lifetime and efficiency of the technologies are from a publically available report made by the Danish Energy Association The energy prices for running the units are from IEA and the Danish Energy Association Date 4

4 Comparison method Investment cost [ ] Total capex [ ] CAPEX Installation cost [ ] DH distribution network [ ] Lifetime [years] WACC [%] Annualized investment cost [ /year] OPEX Maintenance cost [ /cycle] Opex [ /year] Levelized cost of heat [ /kwh] Cycle [years] Fuel Cost Fuel cost [ /kwh] Efficiency [%] Heat cost [ /kwh] Date 5

5 Necessary data for cost calculations Investment costs Operating and maintenance costs per year Efficiency of the technology Expected lifetime of the units Fuel costs Date 6

6 Individual heating technologies - Denmark Operating and Technology Specific Technical Technology type maintenance Total heat cost cost Efficiency Limitations Total heat cost type investment costs lifetime per year Solar thermal New building: Solar thermal 186 /year - 20 years Needs to be New coupled building: /kwh New building: /kwh with alternative heating option, which is not taken into account Limitations Needs to be coupled with alternative heating option Gas boilers /unit 270 /year 100% 20 years New building: 0,177 /kwh Air heat pumps Electrical heaters Gas boilers Air heat pumps New building: /unit Existing building: /unit New building: 0,177 /kwh Existing building: 0,14 /kwh New building: 0,225 /kwh Increased risk of fires and carbon monoxides poisoning due to possible bad operation and maintenance Existing building: 0,14 /kwh 135 /year 300% 20 years New building: 0,225 /kwh Existing building: 0,168 /kwh When outside temperature decreases the efficiency of the airs source heat pump decreases. Existing building: 0,168 /kwh /unit 50 /year 100% 30 years New building: New building: Puts heavy 0,287 strain /kwh on the 0,287 /kwh electrical grid. Existing building: 0,263 /kwh Electrical heaters Existing building: 0,263 /kwh Increased risk of fires and carbon monoxides poisoning due to possible bad operation and maintenance When outside temperature decreases the efficiency of the airs source heat pump decreases. Puts heavy strain on the electrical grid. Sources: Technology CAPEX, OPEX, efficiency and lifetime data: Danish Energy Agency Fuel and electricity prices: same Date 7

7 The cost of district heating Due to the complexity of the district heating network it is a bit more complicated to calculate the total costs than for individual heating solutions The heat generation cost is further on dependent on the energy source, which offers wide range of possibilities Date 8

8 District heating As the district heating complexity is high it was evaluated on different conditions Influence of the heat density area: Inner city area Outer city area Park area Different energy sources: Dedicated gas boiler Waste incineration Biomass boiler Geothermal energy CHP / Waste heat Park area Inner city area Outer city area Bucharest shown in approximately inner, outer and park areas Currently around 72% of the city s heat demand is supplied by DH Date 9

9 Heat generation - Denmark Heat plant type Specific investment costs Operating and maintenance cost per year Efficiency Capacity depends on if the connected buildings are low energy buildings or traditional buildings Technical lifetime Fuel price (2010) Benefits Centralized gas boiler 0,06-0,12 M /MW 2-5% of investment costs % /kwh Waste incineration plant 1,1 M /MW 5% of investment costs 98% /kwh Solves social and environmental problems regarding household waste handling Biomass boiler, woodchips fired 0,3-0,7 M /MW 1,8-3% 108% /kwh CO 2 neutral and fueled by a renewable energy Geothermal, Low temperature CHP / Waste heat from industry 1,7-1,9 M /MW 2-5% of investment costs 100% 25 Pumping cost The cost of heat from CHP is valued on the cost of the power production efficiency drop when heat is also produced /kwh /kwh CO 2 neutral and fueled by a renewable energy CO 2 neutral and fueled by a recycled waste energy Sources: Technology CAPEX, OPEX, efficiency and lifetime data: Danish Energy Agency Fuel prices: European Commission and EUBIONET III (WP3 - Wood fuel prices in Energiaftalens Europe Fjernvarmeanalyse: - D3.3 ) Fjernvarmens fremtid? Date 10

10 Distribution network costs There are number of factors that can influence the cost of establishing the distribution network, for example: Type of area Greenfield area Brownfield area Existing city Inner city or outer city Ground composition Soil Sand Clay Gravel Rocks In this analysis average costs of establishing distribution networks in Sweden was used. Date 11

11 Distribution network and consumer installation Here the cost of the DH distribution network and consumer installation is shown as a cost per kwh. The higher the heat demand the lower cost per kwh is achieved Expected heat losses are relative to the total heat energy sold and are based on Danish district heating networks Heat demand Linear heat density [GJ/m/y] Inner city /kwh Outer city /kwh Park area /kwh New buildings Existing buildings Heat losses in network New buildings 10% 20% 25% Existing buildings 8% 10% 20% Heat loss in consumer installation 2% Sources: Distribution network: Persson, U., & Werner, S. (2011). Heat Distribution and the Future Competitiveness of District Heating. Applied Energy, Consumer installations: Danish Energy Agency Heat losses: Thorsen, J.E., Christiansen, H.H., Brand, M., Olesen, P.K. & Larsen, C.T., Experiences on low-temperature district heating in Lystrup Denmark. Proc. of the International conference on district energy, Slovenia, Date 12

12 DH compared to individual heating technologies - Denmark (Low energy buildings) District heating Date 14

13 DH compared to individual heating technologies - Denmark (Traditional buildings) District heating Date 15

14 DH cost level published by the European Commission EUR/kWh 0,072 0,054 0,036 0,018 0 Date 17

15 Conclusion The economical benefits of district heating are clear for inner and outer city areas Park areas require more case to case analysis Given an existing gas grid the main competitor is the individual gas boiler In none gas grid the main future competitor will be heat pumps Even in case of reduced future heat consumption district heating remains the most economical way to provide heat energy Additional benefit of district heating is that it is less affected by future cost increases in the energy market, due to its multi-fuel nature, compared to individual heating technologies What here has been shown gives clear indication that district heating is the economical heating solution! Date 18

16 Thank you for your attention Contact information: Jan Eric Thorsen Oddgeir Gudmundsson Application Specialist Danfoss District Heating Application Centre DK-Nordborg Date 19